LouisEly

Sessile... you're alive!

What I was referring to with Ben Hendrickson's dad was that he said the Brewers coaches were constantly messing with his mechanics and how he threw pitches. He said one coach would tell him to throw a pitch one way, and another coach would tell him to throw the same pitch a different way. Bouncing back and forth between the minors and majors he kept getting told differently how to throw pitches.

Good call on Drew Ward, if he can stick at SS or 3B. I missed him. Salazar was one of three finalists I had at #90; went with a lefty instead.

In his 21 appearances since April 13th he has a 2.84 ERA and 22 Ks (7 BB) in 19 innings, with 3 of the 6 ER coming in one outing. I'd say he's strung together some good outings.

Mark A. approved trading Grienke and Carlos Lee. He dumped Bill Hall and JJ Hardy when he felt they were no longer of value. I'd bet my bottom dollar the only reason he didn't trade Fielder is because the Brewers were in contention the final year of his contract. Not sure why he wouldn't approve trading any of those with the exception of Gallardo - given his age and being under contract for a few more years I can see why he would hesitate. But I think Mark A. understands the concept of sunk costs, and not making decisions based on them.

Todd, I think this is why teams were asking him how much he'd sign for. Teams have different strategies, some of which are to skimp on signing bonuses for 7th-10th round picks to have more money to sign earlier picks. Here is an article that looks into that, and how teams signed some picks in that range for $1000: http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/07/04/high-mlb-draft-picks-sign-for-1000-apiece/ I don't know how much of a need money is for your friend right now and in the immediate future, but with 10th round slot being $125K, if $60K is good enough to sign then it might be smart to tell teams you'd sign for half of 10th round slot. If $50K is good enough, tell them you'd sign for 1/3rd of 7th round slot. That can be a very valuable incentive for teams to draft someone, because if a pick doesn't sign then the team does not get that slot money included in their pool - they lose that slot value, and can't use it towards another pick.

Before we get too excited about prospects and their rankings, let's look at the prospect list from 2009 that 'stache posted. While there are some great players on that list, the #1 prospect in baseball that year hasn't had a career much more productive than Lucroy. The #3 prospect hasn't been much more productive than Gomez, factoring in defense and that the prospect's best season by far was 3 years ago. The #5 prospect is having a worse season than Weeks, and he and the #6 prospect for their careers haven't been more productive than Aoki. Cameron Maybin is back in the minors. Porcello has not lived up to his signing bonus. Yes, a rotation of Price, Hanson, Bumgarner, Cahill, and Anderson would be nice. Fielding a team of Maybin, Alvarez, Moustakas, Lars Anderson, Escobar, LaPorta, Smoak, Matusz, either Beckham, Porcello, Fernando Martinez, Montero, Alderson, and Lambo would be brutal. And those guys were all top 50. As for Latin America investment, four years later Villalona and Ynoa are still in A-ball and now average age for their leagues.

Ariel Pena finishes the month of May: 32.1 IP (not sure what happened on 5/3 - rain out?), 21 H, 1 HR, 4 ER, 14 BB, 39 K, 1.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP. Other than the walks that is a beautiful line. [sarcasm]Who says we have no pitching prospects...[/sarcasm] On the walks, has anyone watched him extensively in person? Is he just missing, effectively wild, or "juuuuuust a bit outside"? Is it one specific pitch that he is having trouble locating or is it inconsistency across the board? Hello old friend again... Brad Nelson starting for Iowa.

Amen. And with that we say, good night everybody.

Yes, that Carlos Zambrano. The guy is a first-class jerk, but... would the Brewers have anything to lose at this point by taking a flyer on him? He's only 32, and if somehow he can show something maybe he can get flipped for a prospect in July. If he's still a jerk they release him, but the Brewers need all the arms who can go multiple innings they can get right now. I don't think he's on PHI's 40-man roster, so could they offer him a major league contract and sign him away? Hey, he's likely a better hitter than Gonzalez and Yuni...

'stache, I'm curious as to why you started your draft comparison in 2006 and not 2005. In 2005, the last time the Brewers had a top 5 pick, they drafted a guy I think compares very favorably to Buxton. People forget that LaPorta had a .978 OPS as a 23-year-old in Huntsville in 2008 when they traded him. (Braun had a .956 OPS as a 22-year-old in AA, Hicks as a 22-year-old posted a .844 OPS.) Pre-2009 LaPorta was the #27 prospect in baseball (after his AA season Hicks was the #73 prospect). The Brewers sold high on him and flipped him for Sabathia; I can't say the Twins have done as good of a job selling high on their prospects (Garza for Young, Revere for Worley). Not all prospects pan out. 'stache, you've done a great job of researching information for your posts. I'd be curious as to who the top 100 prospects were pre-2009 and where they are now. People might be surprised how many of them didn't live up to their potential.

I'll take a half-fast stab here. With minimal research on scouting reports and stats: #54: Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Vanderbilt or Blake Taylor, LHP, Dana Hills HS (CA) #72: Drew Ward, 3B, Leedy HS (OK) or Tucker Neuhauss, SS/3B, Wharton HS (FL) #90: Kyle Crockett, LHP, Virginia or Carlos Salazar, RHP, Kerman HS (CA) 4th: Victor Caratini, 3B/C, Miami Dade CC 5th: Akeem Bostick, RHP, West Florence HS (SC) or Lukas Schiraldi, RHP, Navarro CC 6th: Max Knutson, LHP, Mounds View HS (MN) 7th: Chris Freudenberg, LHP, South Mountain (Ariz.) CC 8th: Tony Bryant, RHP, Oregon St 9th: Trevor Bayless, RHP, U of San Diego 10th: splitterftj's friend or Joey Wagman, RHP, Cal Poly I'm really intrigued by Crockett. He was their closer but threw 49 innings in 26 appearances so he's not just a 1-inning guy; struck out 61 and walked only 6 in those 49 innings and didn't give up a HR. At 6'2", 170, he still has room to grow into his frame. Freudenberg had very good K totals but high walks; a good risk/reward at that point. Bryant is listed at 6'7", 225, allowing only 15 hits in 30 IP striking out 28 and gave up only one extra base hit (a double) to the 106 batters he faced. Pitched for the Mallards in 2011. I think there's some upside with him, especially with his size. Wagman is a little small (listed at 6'0", 190) but struck out 103 in 112 innings while only giving up one HR; as a senior (like Bryant and Bayless) he could sign for well below slot, freeing up more money to sign earlier picks.

He, Jobe, and Andrews deserve a place in the Hall of Fame. Plenty of guys who are there or will be there because of them. Didn't know he lived in Manhattan Beach. I might have run into him and not even known it.

Remember all of the stuff that Ben Hendrickson's dad had to say about the Brewers? Most people dismissed it as someone who thought his kid was better than he really was. Maybe he was spot on.

While looking at Dylan Covey's numbers at USD (not impressive) I stumbled upon an interesting guy for a 7th-10th round pick, Toreros reliever Trevor Bayless. Struck out 40 in 33 innings with 30 hits; walks are a little high (16) but what is most interesting is that he hasn't given up a HR or triple and only 5 doubles in 126 ABs. Plus he is a senior so he doesn't have much leverage, allowing the Brewers to sign him for slot or less and freeing up more money to sign other picks with their bonus pool allotment. Don't know what he throws.

This. Braun generates a lot of revenue and value for the organization that offsets much of his salary. He is an incredible bargain. Assuming that the average fan spends $50/game (ticket, parking, concessions, souvenirs), a drop in attendance from 2.8M to 2M represents a drop of $40M in revenue. A drop in attendance to Marlins attendance levels (1.4M) equals a drop of $70M in revenue.

You can't give every high school kid who demands $600K or goes to college $600K. While the draft pool wasn't established until 2012, I think there was some pressure from MLB not to give those high bonuses to picks later in the draft. The Brewers complained about the rules long enough that they feel compelled to abide by them, right or wrong. Part of it is luck and what years you get top picks. Say what you want about Weeks, he has by far the best career WAR of any of the top 6 picks in the 2003 draft and the 7th best of all 39 first round picks that year. There was also no protection for unsigned picks with a similar comp pick in the next draft like there is now. No use wringing hands about Wacha; he was drafted well before the Brewers picks.

I love ya 'stache (I gave you the Upton jinx, you know), but this is not entirely true. The Brewers have won more games since 2005 than the Twins. The Twins have been to the playoffs three times since 2005, obviously one more than the Brewers, but each time they have been swept 3-0 in the first round which may suggest that the Twins played in an inferior division and weren't as good as their record suggested. Both times the Brewers were in the playoffs they lost to the eventual World Series champion (and in 2008 they were a Rickie Weeks dropped throw away from being up 2-1 on the Phillies). You have to throw out Buxton as he was the #2 overall pick; if you look at the year Weeks was drafted #2 overall that draft class was weak - Weeks has by far the best career WAR of any of the top 6 picks and the 7th best career WAR of all 39 first round picks that year. 2009 was also the first year that protected unsigned picks with picks in the next years draft, something the Brewers didn't have the luxury of having when they had higher picks than the Twins from 2002-2007; the Brewers may have taken more risks if they had that protection. Since 2008 the Twins have drafted ahead of the Brewers every year but two, including Hicks in 2008 (I'll argue Lawrie was a better pick at #16) and Gibson in 2009. One year the Brewers had a higher pick they didn't sign Covey in 2010 but that was a blessing; that year the Twins picked Wimmers and he has disappointed. It happens - no team bats 1.000 in the draft; the Twins whiffed on Shooter Hunt and Carlos Guttierez in 2008. Ben Revere (2007) disappointed and they traded him for Vance Worley; Matt Laporta was traded for Sabathia. The other year the Twins had a lower pick (2011) their pick Levi Michael so far has nothing on Jed Bradley. There is correlation between draft position and talent when draft position is fairly consistent over several years.

The 'stache will never get a date with Kate Upton. Book it.

I think Gomez has more range than Schafer. In my 5-year plan I have Schafer/Kh. Davis platooning in RF and trading Aoki.

Thanks for posting the Top 100 articles - very interesting read. The odds are better for college players to make the majors (on average 40-50% by position, compared to ~30% for HS), and most likely to be an impact player is college 3B (21% - but many moved to 1B or OF), followed by college 1B (18%) and then HS LHP (15%) and college RHP (15%). Excluding #1/#2 overall picks A-Rod, Chipper Jones, and the Upton brothers, HS shortstops aren't looking good (8%). I wish they would break down the success rates by Top 10 pick, 11-20, 21-end of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, to get a better idea of the value of picks in those ranges.

Look on the bright side craig, at this rate he won't get many opportunities. The upside is if he can regain close to his 2011 form he could become a very tradeable commodity come July - an experienced closer with a cheap contract.

Let's not forget how much of an upgrade defensively Hart is over Gonzalez/Yuni at 1B. Hart is very good defensively at 1B and his length turns errant throws into outs.

Because teams are more willing to buy when they know 1) that they are in contention in late July and b) what their needs are in late July. A team can think what their needs are in late May, but one or two injuries to key players in June can change that in a hurry. I mentioned in the 5-year plan thread that IMO Braun is untouchable - the intangible value of associating Braun with the Brewers plus the tangible value of having him (merchandise sales, casual fans who go to games to see him, other things that produce revenue) offsets much of his contract. He is an incredible bargain. The only other untouchable is Segura due to age, production, and premium position. A third guy who is not untouchable but a team would have to blow me away with an offer is Gomez. The reason is because the best thing you can do for mediocre and/or young inexperienced pitching is put a great defense behind them. With Braun, Segura, and Gomez you have guys who are above-average defensively at their respective positions. Those are the three you build around. Definitely open to trading Gallardo. I'm concerned about a player who goes out until 2AM and gets blitzed during the season, and wonder if that is the reason for his regression. A-Ram to the Dodgers is interesting. Gordon is hitting .175 and Sellers is hitting .191, so it wouldn't surprise me if they put Hanley back at SS and shop for a 3B. They need a closer too. A-Ram plus one of Henderson/Axford (maybe we can fool them into thinking K-Rod still has it) for one of Lee/Seager and two of Magill, Reed, Garcia, Stripling? Lee + Seager + Reed would be nice, but I'm not sure they would get it.

Ramirez has posted a >.900 OPS and 5.6 WAR and replaced a -0.9 WAR guy on a 96 win team at a premium position. I will strongly disagree that 3yrs/$36M was a "terrible" contract for that. It should have made the Brewers a 100+ win team while still allowing for an 11 WAR regression at other positions and still yield a 90-win playoff team. Gio Gonzalez was once traded for a 34-year-old Jim Thome making $14M coming off of an injury-plagued season where he had a .714 OPS; a .900 OPS 3B can probably bring back more in a trade than you think. All it takes is one team with a need. My plan: 1) Be patient, and don't overreact. You don't have to field the worst team in the history of baseball to restock the farm system. 2) Ryan Braun is the face of the franchise. Factoring in both intangible value of association of Braun with the Brewers as well as tangible value (merchandise sales, casual fans who come to games because of him, etc., things that create revenue), Braun is an incredible value. He is untouchable. Lock down Segura - he is building block #2. 3) The best thing you can do for mediocre pitching and/or young, inexperienced pitching is to put great defense behind them. This means Gomez is building block #3; yes, he is probably hitting over his head but his defense is invaluable to pitchers. I'd still listen to offers for him, but someone would have to blow me away to trade him prior to the last year of his contract. Everyone else I'm open to dealing. 4) I'm more impressed with the Reds and Giants talent identification than other teams - that is where I'd look to throw some money at scouts. I think the Rays are overrated - they have not done a good job with their first round picks. 5) Find and hire roving minor league pitching coaches who specialize in teaching one or two pitches. Have them spend a month with each team focusing on one pitch. The team pitching coach works on teaching general pitching mechanics, but when it comes to learning how to throw specific pitches have specialists that follow the prospects through the system instead of having different coaches teaching them each year. 6) Looking at the last two seasons, there are three things that have brought young pitching back in trades - major league pitching, catchers, and shortstops. I'd look to trade one of Lucroy or Maldonado; I'd be inclined to keep Maldonado for defensive reasons. Colorado was able to get Chatwood for Ianetta, who is somewhat comparable to Lucroy. 7) If Gallardo's regression is due to him boozing it up until 2AM during the season, then move him. I'd prefer to trade bullpen arms first. 8) Trade from positions of depth. Aoki could be replaced by a platoon of Schafer/Kh. Davis or Ke.Davis/Kh. Davis. If Schafer/Kh. Davis can bring more value in a trade then move them, as Aoki is cheap enough to keep. 9) Back to defense... Morris is heating up, but if he is an average defender or worse (I don't know much about his defense), can bring back value in a trade, and if Hart is willing to sign a reasonable extension then I'd move Morris. Again, this is for defensive reasons back to item #3 above as Hart is a very good defensive 1B. It can also give the Brewers time to trade Hart when he has more value, instead of now where he has little to none. I would be willing to trade young cheap position players (not named Segura) if they can bring back value in young pitching. 10) There are two ways to add talent to the farm system without giving up talent - the draft, and signing free agents and then trading them for prospects. TheCrew posted some excellent articles in the Draft forum that show that the chances of a top-100 draft pick turning into an impact player (career WAR >10) are between 8-15% depending on position (college 3B is 21% but many of them moved to other positions, and college 1B was 18%). The chances of a top-100 pick playing 100 games/pitching 30 games in the majors is about 30% for HS picks and 40-50% for college picks. That is why I don't hang my hat on the draft; it is important, but it is also a crap shoot with no guarantees. When I say sign free agents, I'm not referring to big, long contracts - I'm referring to short, relatively cheap contracts, and minor league free agents like Axford, McGehee, Bianchi, etc. Bullpen pitchers are a great way to do this; Tampa's closers and set-up men over the last five seasons have mostly been over-30 free agent signings (Rodney, Peralta, Farnsworth, Cruz, Benoit, Percival). Bullpen pitching is valuable come July and can be a tradeable commodity. Fill roster holes with a couple of reclamation projects who don't cost a lot that, if they return to form, could bring back value in a trade. Look for more players in Asia like Aoki and Figaro who can potentially be flipped for prospects. Don't abandon free agency; look for values that can be flipped down the road. 11) I agree with whomever said don't invest premium picks (Rounds 1-5) on 1B, 2B, or corner OF, unless the next Fielder is staring you in the face. SS can be moved to 3B or 2B, 3B can be moved to corner OF or 1B. Statistically your best bet is college 3B (21%, but many move to other positions), HS LHP and college RHP (15% each), followed by college RHP (14%). That's where I'd invest my top picks (if it is a college 3B, make sure they are athletic enough to move to OF). Worst bet is HS SS (8%), unless you are staring at the next A-Rod or Chipper Jones. If the new draft rules don't penalize you, identify one prep arm who slips into the teens due to signability and offer him $600K. 12) No sense in selling low on Weeks or others if you can't bring back value or save money. Worst case you do a change-of-scenery trade for another player who is underperforming for his contract and hope that player rebounds. Since April 13th Axford has an ERA of 3.00, walked 7 and struck out 20 in 18 IP, and has a 25:27 GB:FB ratio. Patience.