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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    I'm really starting to like Michael Wacha as a SP target (assuming Skubal doesn't happen). He's actually been more effective against LHB (.685 OPS-A) than RHB (.752 OPS-A) this season, likely due to his changeup and cutter. They'll need a pitcher who is effective against LHB to have a chance against PHI (Schwarber, Harper) and LAD (Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker). Not a rental, under contract for 2027 for a reasonable $14M (plus up to $4M in incentives) at age 35. Team option for 2028 with $1M buyout. So, won't come cheap. Also, under reclamation projects, Matt Strahm has been bitten by the HR bug this year but was very effective for PHI the last 3 years. Maybe the analytics/lab can find a tweak with him to get him back to 2024-2025 form. Shouldn't cost much with the year he's having plus being a true rental.
  2. LouisEly
    Problem is that Toronto's top two prospects are SS and are in A and AA. I don't know that they would want a third, and another that is several years away. They certainly need OF and I think OFs, particularly those who are closer to the majors, may be more enticing to them. I also think that after being in the WS last year, they want players back who they think may be able to contribute next season.
  3. LouisEly
    I don't think anybody is/was thinking Jadyn Fielder was going to play in the majors. It was a reference to them playing together in the minors.
  4. LouisEly
    So much for CC's and Prince's kids excitement about getting to play together...
  5. LouisEly
    Can get everything done in one shot: SP: Gausman RP: Hoffman 3B/SS: Clement (yes, he's an All Star, but at 2B in the AL that isn't saying much this year) They need OF and SP, and Springer is a FA after the year so they could use a 1B/DH even though Guerrero is under contract forever. They have SS prospects but they're a ways away. Brewers would be taking on some salary in Hoffman and Gausman, with Gausman a FA after the year. I'd trade anyone not named Made or Fischer, but what would they go for? OF: their choice of Adamczewski/Payne IF/OF: Jett Williams (replaces multi-position Clement) 1B/DH: Luke Adams SP: their choice of Letson/Hardin Throw-in: their choice of Wilken/JD Thompson Feels a touch light, but except for Payne they're on the ML doorstep and they fill their needs. Teams generally place higher value on players in AA or above whereas prospect lists tend to rank on upside and "being the first to be on a guy". I'm assuming Pratt & Lara are off the table. In the offseason, the Brewers flip Hoffman for prospects.
  6. LouisEly
    Arbitration eligible in 2027 but not a FA until 2029. That being said, I like him the most on the list. Fairly even splits between LHB and RHB, and will need a LHB to get through the NL (Ohtani, Schwarber, Harper, Freeman, Muncy, etc.). He will cost a pretty penny.
  7. LouisEly
    18 games in 17 days, last 11 were on the road covering three different time zones with one day off and two doubleheaders, went 10-8. Let's all take a few deep breaths these next five days.
  8. LouisEly
    Strong performance in the Cape Cod League last summer as a 19-20 year old.
  9. LouisEly
    13.8 K/9 last season with a reasonable 3.6 BB/9. I'll take that even if only a reliever. I wouldn't expect too much of a discount here.
  10. LouisEly
    Hey! Off by a round, but close. I've been doing alright on these lately: 2026 - Julian Garcia 2025 - Jacob Morrison 2023 - Brock Wilken 2022 - Matt Wood
  11. LouisEly
    And if they plan on trading for multiple positions (SP, RP, 3B/SS) in a couple of weeks they may need to DFA more guys, and thus not want to put real prospects on the 40.
  12. LouisEly
    Some guys I like: 1st (#25): Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA (little underslot, was just arm fatigue and not a serious injury) Landon Thome, 2B/3B, HS (son of one of my favorite non-Brewers of all time) Taj Marchand, SS, HS (same HS as Gorman Thomas, and still only 17 - it was meant to be) 2nd (#66): Jensen Hirschkorn, RHP, HS (may have a lower number for the Brewers after seeing what the Brewers did with another tall, lanky RHP) Ben Blair, RHP, Liberty (power sinker getting ground ball outs 50% of the time plus a cutter with late life and deceptive delivery) Evan Dempsey, RHP/OF, Florida Gulf Coast (expect velo to tick up if pitching full time, 3000rpm curveballs) 3rd (#102): Julian Garcia, RHP, HS Brett Renfro, RHP, Virginia Tech Sean Dunlap, C, HS
  13. LouisEly
    The more teams selling, the more it's a buyer's market for MIL.
  14. LouisEly
    The Classies were only 2 games back of the final WC spot going into tonight, and had a WC spot a week ago, but after getting their arses handed to them 4 out of 5 games at home the Brewers may have just forced them to be sellers. Win the division on their field last year, demoralize them into giving up this year. Beautiful.
  15. LouisEly
    I see what you did there...
  16. LouisEly
    How much extra up front and in each monthly payment did you have to make, and what is the opportunity cost of that if it had been invested in the market? That's what most people don't account for. Also, the calculator factors in selling the house at some point in the future (~6% closing costs/realtor fees; on a $600K house, that's $36K giving back, plus potentially capital gains taxes of 15%, so could lose over 20% of the value when selling). One of the exceptions I listed is if you can stay in the house for a long time where you no longer have a payment... but few people are able to do that. You don't make money or lose money on any asset until you sell it. Also, how much are you spending on maintenance, repairs, appliances, painting, remodeling, etc., that you would not pay for if you were renting? Regarding rent, you have to base it on rent at the time you purchased the home. As a landlord myself, I can tell you that most landlords know that when they have a really good tenant, they will not raise the rent significantly. Tenant turnover usually costs more money than lost rent (paint, flooring, every little repair before you can even show the place, and increases the risk that a bad tenant who will stiff you for rent/damage the place/result in legal fees, etc., will come in).
  17. LouisEly
    Is Kuany Kuany any relation to Duany Duany? And Kevin "Boopie" Miller is my new favorite player.
  18. LouisEly
    Excluding the Vegas launching pad game, Gasser's ERA this season is 3.29.
  19. LouisEly
    Let's see if their hitters mail it in and Gasser gets a couple of 6-pitch innings.
  20. LouisEly
    I have a feeling that there will be plenty of good seats available tomorrow...
  21. LouisEly
    Are you referring to the pitcher or Matt Erickson?
  22. LouisEly
    The tweet was referencing Zimmerman. It says he was DFA'd.
  23. LouisEly
    The Brewers did the exact same thing to him last year. I think he knows the score.
  24. LouisEly
    As I mentioned, one of the exceptions is if you get a very low interest rate. I'm not holding my breath that interest rates will get under 5%, much less down to 3%, any time soon, if ever again. What most people don't do, which Nerd Wallet does, is calculate opportunity cost. You can input your rate of return, and it calculates the long-term value of that. If you have to put $200K down on a house now (much less the cost of repairs and maintenance).... in a S&P 500 fund that could easily double in 7 years, quadruple in 14 years, 8x in 21 years. But real estate only appreciates on average 3%, so it takes ~23 years for real estate to double. And I'm not the only one I know who has gotten in a lawsuit with a neighbor. Then things can get expensive. I expect to be very retired then, and my living needs and location might change. But looking at the Nerd Wallet graph, 13 years is about the max profit on a home. After that, repairs and maintenance really start to go up.
  25. LouisEly
    It''s just to crush their soul after they score 4 or more in the 6th or later.
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