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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    When I look at the depth of the system, I see a lack of SP prospects. The top pitching prospect on MLB.com's ranking isn't until #9, and only 3 pitchers on the list above A-ball. Some pitchers lower on the list, but lots of projection on HS arms there that may or may not develop (much less out for two years when they have TJ). Given the lack of pitching prospects in the upper levels, I don't know if the Brewers should move any young, controllable major-league arms for a rental.
  2. LouisEly
    Why would I want a guy who finished 4th in the MVP voting two years ago at age 23? I dunno... maybe to upgrade 3B/SS and win a World Series this year? Sometimes guys have a down stretch. Made, Pena, Fischer, etc., aren't going to help this year. Or likely next year either. So, rent those guys for a year, then trade them once Made/Pena/Fischer are ready... if they ever are ready. They're not a sure thing.
  3. LouisEly
    “I’ve been on the phone a lot,” said Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold, who cannot discuss specific trade targets and teams. “We’re definitely active.” https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-potential-approach-to-2026-trade-deadline Teams are also asking the Brewers about their young Major League starters, who include right-hander Brandon Sproat, left-hander Shane Drohan and Wednesday’s starter Logan Henderson, all of whom are controllable through 2031. Assuming this is true, I don't think the Brewers are going to move any of their young, controllable starters for a rental.
  4. LouisEly
    Pipe dream: 1) Skubal 2) Gausman 3) Buxton Realistic: 1) Wacha 2) Morejon 3) Drew Anderson Looks like Lockridge is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment today, and I don't see any RF who is likely to be available who is better and either doesn't come with a bad contract or isn't going to cost a ton in prospect capital.
  5. LouisEly
    Relievers aren't robots either. They have good days and bad days. A 3.00 ERA for a reliever is good. But because they give up 3 ER every 9 innings doesn't mean they can't be trusted.
  6. LouisEly
    I don't know, but don't come back with him. Lock the door.
  7. LouisEly
    Genuine question - is he a corner OF because he can't play CF, or is he a corner OF because he's on a team with a lot of guys who can play CF (Mitchell, Perkins, Chourio)? What type of value would he have if he actually is an average CF?
  8. LouisEly
    I'd hate to give up Wood as I think he can be that backup bat-first catcher to replace Sanchez. But those four teams have some good secondary piece trade options, particularly in the bullpen: Mets - bullpen (Weaver, Raley, Minter), and Manaea could be a swing-man/long reliever who could neutralize the LHH in the NL Angels - have a former closer in Kirby Yates who is having a good bounce-back season Orioles - lesser-known bullpen guys in Tyler Wells and Rico Garcia Tigers - Kenley Jansen, Drew Anderson
  9. LouisEly
    No, the Brewers are not trading Adamczewski for Peralta. Lots of other players on Biloxi who could be trade bait. Lots of other players on the Mets besides Peralta. Detroit could be Skubal. Angels could be Detmers. I would absolutely do Adamczewski for Detmers as Detmers isn't a FA until 2029. I'd absolutely do Adamczewski in a package for Gunnar Henderson or Jackson Holliday from the Orioles.
  10. LouisEly
    That's Bunty McBuntface to you.
  11. LouisEly
    Baseball version of SeanWrightNBA
  12. LouisEly
    To get a feel for the state of 3B league-wide, Fangraphs has Bregman at 1.8 WAR and B-Ref has him at 2.4 WAR. From what I understand, B-Ref's calculations are based more on actual production and Fangraphs more to be predictive. Almost at the 2/3rds point of the season, and with WAR being a counting stat, he's on track to achieve 2.7 fWAR and 3.6 bWAR. At ~$9M/FA WAR, that's pretty much on track with what they are paying him.
  13. LouisEly
    Uh... Yoho in?
  14. LouisEly
    He made up for it...
  15. LouisEly
    I know. But some others in this thread aren't, and my comments were directed towards them. Sorry for the confusion.
  16. LouisEly
    He's been taking advantage of a pitcher's park at home, but has been just awful on the road this year. He was pretty even though home vs road in 2025, so maybe it is just a blip. Definitely need some advanced analytics to see which is real, 2026 or 2025.
  17. LouisEly
    This is one of two reasons for trading for him. He leads the league in innings pitched, and this is a staff that desperately needs innings covered just to get them to the playoffs. Second, he's been very good against LHH (.685 OPS-A this season). If they are going to get past the Phillies/Dodgers, they will need pitchers who are effective against LHH. Like I said in the initial post, I'm assuming Skubal doesn't happen. I'd love it if it did, but I don't see the Brewers giving up the prospect haul for an impending FA, and someone is going to overpay based on his start yesterday. But Wacha has been more effective against LHH this season than Skubal (.758 OPS-A vs LHH, .577 OPS-A vs RHH). Casey Mize has been even more effective against LHH this season (.488 OPS-A), and would cost less than Skubal. But he's never thrown more than 155 innings in a season. Will he run out of gas in October? If you don't like it, then suggest someone better. And be specific about who and not cop out and say, "think better".
  18. LouisEly
    Maybe the Brewers know how to use him better than the Mets? I.e., better understand his strengths/weaknesses, what pitches to call in what situations, how to align the defense behind him, etc.
  19. LouisEly
    When I lived in Chicago the air show was always the weekend of my birthday. They did practice runs on Thursday and Friday before the actual show on Saturday, and would always buzz my rooftop all afternoon. I'm on the short list of people who can say they got a Blue Angels flyover at their house for their birthday. (You know how pictures make things appear further away than they are...)
  20. LouisEly
    Converse of this - which top prospects are you most willing to part with and why? Also, who are the top 3 pitchers you are targeting who are realistically going to be available and why?
  21. LouisEly
    $14M-$18M for a good FA starting pitcher really isn't much. He's already at 2.2 bWAR and was a 2.8 and 3.1 bWAR pitcher in 2025 and 2024. I believe @sveumrules last calculation of average FA $/WAR is around $9M, so even if he loses half of his WAR value next year, he'd still be average FA value.
  22. LouisEly
    That's fair. Who's better against LHH not named "Skubal" that's likely to be available?
  23. LouisEly
    You didn't need the first two words. And if you don't like trading for All-Stars, then that's fine.
  24. LouisEly
    I'm really starting to like Michael Wacha as a SP target (assuming Skubal doesn't happen). He's actually been more effective against LHB (.685 OPS-A) than RHB (.752 OPS-A) this season, likely due to his changeup and cutter. They'll need a pitcher who is effective against LHB to have a chance against PHI (Schwarber, Harper) and LAD (Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker). Not a rental, under contract for 2027 for a reasonable $14M (plus up to $4M in incentives) at age 35. Team option for 2028 with $1M buyout. So, won't come cheap. Also, under reclamation projects, Matt Strahm has been bitten by the HR bug this year but was very effective for PHI the last 3 years. Maybe the analytics/lab can find a tweak with him to get him back to 2024-2025 form. Shouldn't cost much with the year he's having plus being a true rental.
  25. LouisEly
    Problem is that Toronto's top two prospects are SS and are in A and AA. I don't know that they would want a third, and another that is several years away. They certainly need OF and I think OFs, particularly those who are closer to the majors, may be more enticing to them. I also think that after being in the WS last year, they want players back who they think may be able to contribute next season.
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