LouisEly

With the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumping despite a higher than expected jobs report (which have consistently been revised downward several months later), I think that two rate cuts are much more likely than a rate increase. Hopefully the Fed realizes that the unemployment rate has been artificially suppressed by 2.5M immigrants coming into the country seeking work permits last year, and that number isn't slowing down. The US population grew by 1.6M last year, with 2/3rds coming from immigrants (most of whom are in their working years) as opposed to births, who won't be in the work force for ~20 years.

https://brewerfanatic.com/forums/topic/41879-packers-2024-off-season-thread/?do=findComment&comment=1567967

Yes, 1) because it's tampering if they do, B) if Jones or Rosenhaus makes any reference to his market value they are going to suspect tampering and report it to the League, and 3) there was no indication that the Packers were going to release Jones until after they signed Jacobs, and nobody knew they were going to sign Jacobs until the day they released Jones. There was very little window for the Viqueens to make any offer, much less anticipate Jones being released as opposed to the hundred other players who were released that day. It's also possible that the Viqueens made a quick, above-market offer for Jones because Jones kind of knows their playbook.

Funny that he shot 28% from 3 for the season, but of course, made 4 of 6 vs. Wisconsin. Because "chip".

How do you know that Rosenhaus counter-offered $7M to the Packers and wasn't playing hardball? Just because Jones signed with the Viqueens for $6M+$1M incentives doesn't mean that offer was on the table for the Packers.

Playing slot corner is really difficult. It's very difficult to cover shifty slot receivers and trying to react to what they are doing. Slot receivers also usually line up off the line of scrimmage or motion across/out, making it very difficult to jam them at the LOS or play bump and run press - they almost always get a free release. They're also paying Nixon to be an All-Pro kick returner. Packers were 5th in average KO return yardage and through the middle of December had the 2nd best average starting field position.

Wisconsin native Marcus Domask of Illinois named 1st team all Big-Ten by coaches, 2nd team by media. Ouch. Overall I think that Storr was a better fit for what UW needed, but Domask would have been helpful if they had room for him. Maybe one more person had to transfer out to make that happen. Good for Domask who was overlooked by every D-1 team despite being Wisconsin Mr. Basketball. That's what you call a "chip".

Keep in mind, the Vikings couldn't make that offer until after Jones was released. When the Packers offered, it was the Packers offer or get released - no other teams to compete with. Once Jones was released, it was the Vikings versus any/every other team's offer so the Vikings - if they really wanted him - had to buck up the offer to ensure that they made a better offer than anyone else. Thus why free agents often get overpaid - they're competing blindly against everyone else. Teams never know what other teams are offering or will offer. Even if a player is a FA, I'd be willing to bet that almost if not every offer has a NDA attached to it.

And QB, or lack thereof. Teams weren't scheming to stop Aiden O'Connell or Brian Hoyer.

Between releasing Campbell and Jones (not counting Bakh because it was kind of a given that he would get released), the Packers have saved over $22M in cash that they're parlaying into signing bonuses for McKinney and Jacobs. I'd say that's a net positive.

Aaron Jones signed a 4 year, $48M contract in 2021 w/GB ($13M signing bonus, the only guaranteed $). He didn't see the last year of that contract, just as it is very unlikely that Jacobs sees year 4 of his 4 year, $48M contract.

Problem is that prior to week 14 he had exactly two games with >10 carries. Dillon had 36 more rushing attempts than Jones last year. That's kind of all you need to know about why GB wasn't paying Jones $11.5M in cash this year. Sucks, but as they say, the best ability is availability.

Microsoft engineers. What consumer research said that 8-point font size works for everybody in the Outlook email folders pane, the Excel format chart pane, etc. Google could not save me. Anyone know how to increase the font sizes on the side panes of 365 applications?

Those were NFL.com RB rankings, not PFF. Guerendo at #113 on NFL.com, #150 on PFF, pre-combine. Benson is #89 on NFL.com pre-combine. Ray Davis is eight spots below Guerendo at 6.14, #121 overall, on NFL.com. I only listed the top 10 on NFL.com. NFL.com has 12 RBs in the top 121, so about the first 3.5 rounds, so there's quality depth in this year's class.

Illinois is on some type of roll right now. The previous game they played Minnesota. Minnesota scored 97 points, shot 70% from 3, and committed 5 turnovers. And Illinois won.

Those were the rankings before the combine on NFL.com. Guerendo had been rising the weeks before the combine. PFF had him at #150.

Not sure who has them as the top backs, but NFL.com (which I have found to be most accurate as they have the most access to NFL scouts and player personnel execs) has the top backs as: 1) Brooks (6.38, #33 overall) 2) Jaylen Wright (6.28, #54 overall, one spot behind Edgerrin Cooper) 3) Benson (6.19, #89) 4) Lloyd (6.18, #95) 5) Tracy (6.18, #96) 6) Estime (6.17, #97) 7) Irving (6.17, #98) 8) Shipley (6.16, #109) 9) Corum (6.15, #111) 10) Guerendo (6.15, #113) If that's around how things play out, they probably won't be available for the Packers in the 4th. I think part of what is contributing to some rankings of RBs on some sites is that many of these players (Brooks, Wright, Lloyd, Tracy, Guerendo, and to a lesser extent Benson and Estime) weren't on the radar pre-season because they weren't starters the year before or weren't 1,000 yard rushers the year before.

Found this little nugget in another article: "“I think this league’s a 4-2-5 league,” said Brian Gutekunst at his season-ending press conference, “and I think, I’m certainly, as Jeff comes in, and we’re very excited about that, the conversations about kind of how we’re going to want to play." https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/02/michigans-mike-sainristil-can-fill-obvious-slot-cb-need-if-packers-are-willing-to-go-off-script/ While I expect them to draft a LB or two (One early if they decide to move on from Campbell), I think this lends more credence to the notion that they will be drafting a number of DBs. I expect at least three safeties, with at least one of them demonstrating the ability to play in the slot, plus a CB or two.

They guy who actually reminds me the most of Jones is Tyrone Tracy. His abilities were muted in their pass-oriented (and generally awful) offense, but his loose hips and ability to change directions are perhaps the best in the class. Wright is more linear with the sudden ability to jump cut and change directions, but he also has the speed (4.38) and YPC (7.4 this past year - in the SEC - and 6.2 for his career) that says that he can make people miss... and then leave them in the dust.

And to think that he was RB3 at UW and RB2 at Louisville. I get that part of that was injuries earlier in his career, but he played in every game in 2022. Speaks to my level of frustration with Rudolph/Engram as OC who couldn't figure out how to get Guerendo touches - especially as the jet on jet sweeps. Back in 2016 I mocked Aaron Jones to the Packers (one of my prouder hits) because of two things - his ypc (7.7 in 2016, career 6.3) but more because every year he had a longest run >70 yards (and 3 of 4 years >80 yards). Guerendo has a long of 82, 89, and 73. He doesn't have the wiggle that Aaron Jones does (nobody does, he's one of the shiftiest RBs in history) and doesn't have that immediate burst that Jones does, but if he gets a lane he can and will house you. I remember a couple of months ago the talk that it wasn't a good RB class, hardly any were ranked by the draftniks in the top 100, none in the top 60, blah, blah, blah, and I said (either here or on another forum) that there was a lot more RB talent in this class than the ranking websites recognized. And look at what those guys ran today - three sub 4.4, eight sub 4.5, most of those guys weighed in at 210+, and no Brooks - who is considered by most to be the best RB in the class. Nobody had Guerendo in their top 200 back then. Nobody had Jalen Wright on their board. Few even had Brooks on their board because he was 3rd string in 2022 behind Robinson and Johnson. There's RB talent here. Maybe the position isn't that valuable, but there are plenty of guys who I would be very happy if they were taken by the Packers in the 3rd or 4th (Wright, Brooks, Benson, Lloyd, Tracy, Guerendo). And I like Jaylen Wright a LOT - I wouldn't mind at all if the Pack take him in the 2nd.

This is mostly speculation from the media. I haven't heard any chatter from any coaches saying that. I also think that WLB is kind of like OG which is kind of like relief pitcher - most LB's are better WLBs than MLB/SAM, just like most OL are better OG than OT just like most pitchers are better relievers than starters. And with as much motion and shifting as modern offenses employ, I don't know that there really is a difference between a WLB and a SAM. I'd rather have Walker on the TE - he's big enough and athletic enough to cover TEs, but as I mentioned, with as much motion and shifting as there is it's not going to be easy for any LB to consistently line up over the TE or be a SAM/WILL.

Is optical tracking just going to measure for first downs? If so, not really a big deal, because it's still going to be up to the officials where to spot the ball which is the main issue and what cost the Packers a couple of times last year.

And lo and behold, Preston Smith takes a pay cut, roughly equal to what his cap savings would have been if they cut him. I think that makes it even less likely that they draft a DL as that's another roster spot that's practically guaranteed.

I think that's partly a function of having a really young team. I used to manage a really young team - 1st/2nd/3rd job out of undergrad - and that was their initial complaint. But really young/inexperienced people often don't understand the big picture and why things need to be done a certain way. It's often better to brush them off then to tell them that their ideas are crap.