jjfanec

No reason for Villar to be at the top right now Cain Yelich Braun Shaw Santana Seems almost guaranteed. If the team signs Walker he could be in there as well but it could still go Walker, Pina, Arcia. I really want Walker. Washington has the best NL OPS last year at .782. This Brewers lineup would have 6 out of 8 regulars who were above that and four bench bats in Thames, Vogt, Phillips and Aguilar who were above that. The two regulars who would be below are Pina and Arcia (750 and 730 respectively). Sogard was just below as well. This a very balanced lineup. Only Santana really strikes out a lot. I have seen Shaw mentioned as someone who strikes out a lot but he had a lot of at bats. His strike out rate wasnt much different than Kris Bryant (granted Bryant is an elite hitter where Shaw is just really good).

Yeah I don't see how anyone could see this as a bad trade for the twins and I guess if the Brewers make it I am fine. I just didn't want odorizzi in this rotation. Would rather role with woodruff. I am convinced the Brewers are adding one more pitcher sononce Nelson returns odorizzi is our 7th starter in my mind.

Gotta think Archer's price isn't nearly as high as some people seem to think it is then. Odorizzi and Archer are not even close. This shows more how low odorizzi's value isnthan anything. I think it was a good deal for Minnesota but I am glad the Brewers got Chacin instead.

Agreed but the Brewers will make a move for a pitcher. And then it would be ordorizzi vs Chacin or woodward. Would take the two currently on our roster

He is a pitcher that did nothing for me so I am fine having this one off the board. It is a little light but odorizzi was not good last year

Great! I wanted nothing to do with odorizzi

I assume this is from Jeff Passan on Twitter. His next tweet states that the Twins have interest in Odorizzi. This could mean one fewer option for the Brewers. It will be interesting what the Twins are giving up. They don't have much in the minors, except the shortstop Gordon. Gordon and Max Kepler for Odorizzi and Dickerson, perhaps? Twins also made an offer for Archer a week ago. Could be an option too

Darvish could be a pretty big upgrade on Arrieta, who had a bad year by his standards, and you understate how bad Lackey was IMO. Look at some of the guys who started multiple games for them. The rotation is much better. I think I explained why I think the lineup will be better. Look how many of them were 27 or under most of last year. Many of their regulars were 25 or under. There's a very good chance hardly any of them have had their best year yet. Even Rizzo and Heyward could still have some of their best years ahead of them. That's backed up by tons of data about when the average player peaks. They have to stay healthy, I'll give you that. The depth is bad. I think they will get a lot of innings out of their starters, and it's not hard to find bullpen depth at the trade deadline. I'm not deviating from the long-term vision at all just to respond to the Cubs, or the other elite teams in the NL for that matter. That's all I'm saying. Cain and Yelich were fine because they constitute good value IMO. Yelich was probably great value, actually. Cobb would have to get a Chatwood type deal for me to get excited about it. I'd rather just see what Woodruff has and wait for Jimmy. Chatwood was also pretty bad and you can tell me about his road era but I dont think he is sporting .200 Babip again this year and that is what he had on the road. Thinking they will get more innings out of their starters seems like wishful thinking as well considering Arrieta and Lackey pitched deeper into games than Darvish or Chatwood. Darvish hasnt been an innings eater lately. Arrieta is an innings eater. Quintana saw his innings per start dip last year as well. Darvish, Chatwood and Quintana were 6 innings or less per start. You seem to hedging quite a bit on their guys improving on offense instead of some of those guys being what we saw last year. And you seem to think the Brewers who did well were flukes and the Cubs who did poorly were flukes. I just dont agree.

You haven't really explained how the Cubs moves make them that much better. How many games does darvish really improve on arrieta? Chatwood on lackey? Those are not huge improvements if you look at numbers. Losing Davis is a big hit but a full season of quintana helps offset that. Did they make any improvements at all on offense? They lack depth all over the place. They are the favorites to win the division but they don't belong in the same category of teams you discussed

Have a strong feeling that number is way low. If we could get Cobb for that I hope Cobb signs by 11 today. That would be a steal.

Nice post. I said they "could". At least have the courtesy to read the post if you're going to call someone crazy. They have an elite roster and you're being extremely complacent if you think the growing pains so many of their talented young players had last year are going to continue. Nobody would EVER predict a team to win 110, but it's within reach for a group with that much talent. Could is still ridiculous. I am willing to out a ton of money on the Cubs not winning 110. I struggle to see them as 8 wins better than last year which would get them to 100. 18 wins with losing their stud closer and replacing Arietta with Darvish and Lackey with Chatwood and getting a full season of quintana. I think people are overrating the difference between the to picking swaps and Quintana was alright not great with the Cubs. Their rotation is one injury away from being messy and their starters are aging so injury isn't out of the question. I don't think they added anything on offense did they? And they lost a piece or two. Say the Brewers add Cobb why wouldn't I assume they would have more of a winnincrease since even with Nelson being hurt they get a full season of Anderson. Chacin and cobb are ungrades from Garza and whatever else we tried to throw out there. We get a full season of hader in relief and better bullpen pieces. Cain and yelich are better than what we had. If the Cubs could jump 18 wins what could the Brewers jump

They have the resources to fix whatever ails them and signing Darvish allows them to mitigate that risk by spreading it to other facets of the team. They will be formidable and, rightly, the consensus favorite to win the division. I don't think anyone is saying the Cubs aren't the favorite. People are saying they aren't head and shoulders above everyone else. Someone said they were going to win something like 110 games. That is crazy

Last year, nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong - and they still won over 90. You can't look at it just as having guys like Quintana, Darvish, and Chatwood instead of average pitchers all year, but as having them instead of a steaming pile of patchwork options reminiscent of the Brewers with guys like Suppan, Wolf, Marcum, Garza, and Lohse way past their prime. The upgrade there is absurdly massive. And nearly every single average young player except Contreras had a really bad year; you can take it to the bank that some of them will be much better this year, even if you don't know which ones. 110 is tough, but the NL is still pretty weak and the Cubs should be dominant. They were dominant in 2016 with less talent than they have now. Arrieta had a 3.5 era that isn't aveage and darvish won't do a ton better than that. Lackey had a 4.7 era and chatwood wasn't much better. And I know people point to this road splits but his babip on the road was like 2. He won't sustain that. He isn't great. The Cubs aren't world bester. Lester is falling back.

Thought this provided a balanced look at Cobb - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2735370-mlb-position-power-rankings-brs-final-top-80-starting-pitchers-of-2017 He graded out as the 32nd best pitcher in baseball. Definitely not a star but a solid pitcher. He should come much cheaper than Arrieta or Darvish. If he is the 32nd best starter in baseball again and if we can get similar performances out of Anderson, Davies, Chacin and then Nelson when he returns we will be fine. We also keep Santana and prospects if we want to make another move to a starter.

Buzzkill

A rotation of Stroman, Anderson, Nelson, Davies, and Chacin and bullpen with Knebel and Hader is definitely enough to compete now. They are all young enough and controlled long enough that the window is a few years not one or two. That staff with Yelich, Cain, Braun, Shaw and others will win quite a few games

I know Bleacher Report isnt always the best but this used analytics to rank the best pitchers in baseball last year http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2735370-mlb-position-power-rankings-brs-final-top-80-starting-pitchers-of-2017 Stroman was 13 and Archer was 15. Darvish was 16. Cobb was 32. Arrieta 35. Lynn 41. Just for kicks here were our guys who are all locked up for a couple years or more. Nelson - 18 Anderson - 24 Davies - 30 Chacin 56 Sure Nelson is hurt but it makes sense why the front office is looking at guys like Stroman and Archer. They would fit this team so well and in theory you could rebuild the farm the next couple years because the rotation is solid

We would have to empty the farm system to get him but man would he fit a need. Stroman, Anderson, Nelson (when healthy), Davies, Chacin is a rotation that can win a lot of games. I just have no idea the cost. What would we be looking at here? Santana, Hiura, Burnes, and another arm? more?

If that rumor is real Stearns should make that trade in a heart beat. Can't imagine the Rays would go for that. At the same time that better not be the price for odorizzi. He isn't worth that

Oddly the Nationals have been linked to him too

That is essentially the same aav as darvish with just one less year. That would surprise me. 5 years 90 to 95 is my guess.

I think this is the example of a signing that is good for one team but wouldn't have been good for another. 5 years 105 would have been tough on the Brewers. Adding a 6th would have been a mistake. It would have been 20 percent of our payroll for a 37 year old pitcher. For the confusion but they just don't have to worry the same way. They can have a couple bad contracts and still be ok. It is good for them the next couple years and then they will bite the bullet after that

100% this The Brewers have been linked to arrieta Lynn and Cobb. One is very likely coming by here and it won't be a reactionary signing. They wanted darvish but didn't get him but another starting pitcher has always been in the plans

Plenty of free agents would want to play in Milwaukee. It's a great place in summer and they're a respected organization. They have no issues like the Bucks. Aramis Ramirez was one of the best free agents available when they signed him and he took a discount because he wanted to be in Milwaukee. And as long as they keep going after the guys who are being under-valued by the market, which is what they should do, they will be able to entice plenty of free agents by making the best offer, even if those guys did have a slight (but not Yu-sized) preference for a different market. Aramis Ramirez was 34 years old when he signed with the Brewers and signed for 3 years 36 million. He is not a comparison Yu Darvish. Yu was and is the number 1 free agent target according to pretty much everyone. Ramirez was between the 8th and 15th biggest free agents that year. No one is saying we cant get players like Ramirez. It is top end pitchers and guys seeking long term deals.

This idea is so overblown, it's starting not to be funny anymore. These guys are professional athletes. Millionaires. They follow the money. This isn't the 1970s where teams sent malcontents to the Packers as punishment. Darvish hasn't signed because he hasn't received an offer he feels is sufficient enough yet. That's the long and short of it. And Heyman's report, if you read it, is COMPLETE speculation. Exactly. If we wait for the free agent pitcher who wants to be in Milwaukee more than LA or NY we are going to be waiting a long time. I guess the Cubs and twins should pass on darvish too since he hasn't signed there yet either. Obviously he has a price he thinks he is worth and is willing to wait to see if he gets it. Nothing wrong with that. He holds the power right now. Why wouldn't he want until spring training if he doesn't think he is being offered what he is worth and why wouldn't he wait to see if the dodgers can clear space seeing as they are the best team in the nl