Shields out pitched Garza last year, one just was unlucky and the other lucky when it comes to ERA. Both had down years last year though. Garza's FIP the last 3 years: 4.14, 4.17, 4.42. Shields the last three years: 3.82, 4.02, 4.24. Garza really is a 2/3, Shields FIP went up due to high HR rate, his xFIP is actually #1 like. I'd much rather have Shields (assuming Tampa is just dumping him for money reasons and not because they think he's breaking down). James projections FWTW: Garza FIP 4.04 Shields FIP 3.93. Don't have a clue why Garza is projected to pitch better than he ever has unless James has a huge age 27 boost