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endaround

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Everything posted by endaround

  1. endaround
    Not that it would happen this way, but why would Villanueva need to pass through waivers if he were to be optioned? He would be in the same situation Bush was when Bush was optioned down in 2008 correct? I thought the requirement for that was 3 years of service time that one needs to be placed on revokable waivers in order to be optioned.
  2. endaround
    Yes, you're correct, but part of the outrage there is the hindsight. Lets think back to the time when Hart started out the first 4-6 weeks hitting about .195 and Mench actually started out that year hitting very well. So while now it looks painfully obvious and like a mistake on the Brewers part, and frankly, it was, at the time it wasn't anything but obvious. So while I realize this isn't your point by any means, there is just this rush to kinda jump on the Brewers for a lot of little things. Obviously not a big deal one way or the other....... Except thats not what happened. Hart had a slight injury but came back to hit .333 to start 2006. Yost promised Mench he wouldn't sit in spring training. And Hardy was also handled poorly when brought up.
  3. endaround
    A 2 year deal? So you can dump Buck?
  4. endaround
    Spoiliers!!! The end depends upon a lot of things that no one has quite soused fully out that I'm aware of yet. It depends upon what choices you made during the game for each region, not just who you side with but other things as well (ie establishing the chantry in Orzammar), the choices you make at the Landsmeet, your decision with Morrigan, your decision on the final blow, the boon you can ask for, what you decide to do afterwards, who you romance, etc. As a human noble your treated as such by those who should know you. I've also made a female elf mage andreactions are different. I get treated as an elf and often assumed to be a servant. As a female I also got an entirely new conversation with Sten.
  5. endaround
    The playoffs are not a coin flip. You just said that if we went in with Sheets, CC and Yo we would have been able to go deeper, but we had Suppan instead of Sheets and the better team, the Phillies, beat us. If they are just a crapshoot then we had the same chance of winning no matter who was in our rotation because it is just luck anyways. Sorry for getting off topic but this is my main problem with moneyball, Beane just assumes the only goal of a baseball team is to make the playoffs and the rest is just luck. I think his teams falter in the playoffs because if your mentality is only the 3TO you are always going to lose to good pitching. Good pitchers dont walk batters or give up many HRs. You need players who can hit for average to beat good pitching, who you usually face in the playoffs. Actually good pitchers tend to give up a normal amount of home runs
  6. endaround
    Please explain how the Sheets' contract hurt.
  7. endaround
    I have no clue how anyone could call the Astros winners.
  8. endaround
    Despite what Bill Schroeder "thinks" Sheets does (did) not give up many home runs: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/710_P_season_full_4_20091006.png
  9. endaround
    Well to be fair Clement would have been a disaster and before Bush got hit in the arm last year and Arroyo had his great second half his career ERA was pretty much exactly the same as Arroyo's. The difference between those two are really the last 70 IP or so they pitched. Arroyo also had used a heck of a lot more service time. There is a reason why he cost $9.5m last year and $11m this year.
  10. endaround
    There are a few things here. Injuries are idiosynchratic to be sure but so are lots of performance issues. The idea is that much like other stats a large sample can give you an idea of waht to expect. The problem comes with the errors. While not exactly in most systems its assumed that at least locally errors around a projected value behave quasi-normal. Meaning that if you project a guy to hit .270 its about equally likely for him to hit .260 as .280. With innings pitched however there is a large probability mass at zero that can throw things off. For example if you project a guy at 150 innings, he has a decent chance of throwing zero innings but no chance to throw 300. That's exaggerated for effect but I think it illustrates an issue. So while the distribution of say an ERA projection might not be very illuminating, the distribution of a innings pitched would be incredibly informative.
  11. endaround
    Forbes' valuation move around way too much year to year to be believable.
  12. endaround
    Its not so much Feliz isn't worth $4.5m, its that he's not much better than in house options and is basically $4.5m wasted along with $5m for Lyon when you could have brought in a Troy Glaus who could actually help the team.
  13. endaround
    A lot of this depends upon how you view Wolf as a health risk. Most projections have him at 160 innings given his past history. If you have the medical ability to believe that he's closer to 180 threshold that changes things a lot.
  14. endaround
    Well Villaneuva for Soriano would have worked....
  15. endaround
    Narveson has no options remaining while Villaneuava has 2 but he would need to pass through waivers (shouldn't be a problem) and would earn whatever salary he gets for arby (likely around $1m).
  16. endaround
    Now they signed Pedro Feliz to a $4.5m deal. Instead of taking $9m and getting a good 3B in a decent 3B market they've spent it on a mediocre reliever and a below average aging 3B.
  17. endaround
    Yes its the arena and not the overabundance of people willing to pay $500 to see the Lakers pay thats the difference!
  18. endaround
    Lee is on the roster for a long time (3 more seasons at $18.5m). This could be Berkman's last year there but given how they tend to hold on to players his 2011 $15m option might very well be picked up.
  19. endaround
    Davis' FIPs: 3.57,3.98, 4.38. His xFIPs 4.04,3.80 4.62. Its very unlikely Wolf matches those.
  20. endaround
    Davis was very good here.
  21. endaround
    Narveson is out of options
  22. endaround
    I assumed that was going to happen no matter what. Its Villaneuava who looks to be on thin ice right now.
  23. endaround
    What he was last year was exceptionally lucky. He pitched as well as he did in 2008 but got a strand rate of 91%. He's a 4.00 ERA reliever.
  24. endaround
    Uggh. Now the Brewers will have a $15m pen. Hoffman and Hawkings for 90 innings or a good starter for 180?
  25. endaround
    Vasquez is just too good to move for a contending team thats why it makes no sense for a Braves team that wants to put together one more run with Jones to move one of the best pitchers last year. He isn't an Edwin Jackson doing it with smoke and mirrors, he's a very good pitcher and has been so for a long time.
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