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endaround

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Everything posted by endaround

  1. endaround
    How much of Sanatna's recent hot streak is due to them protecting him from RH pitchers? He's been killing LH pitchers this year but RH pitcher are his bane. He's been in at least a soft platoon for the past few weeks.
  2. endaround
    At best the top prospect coming back would be like Billingsley. De Leon is only a slight possibility if the Brewers were picking up another $25-30 million of Braun's contract. Braun is basically worth his contract or slightly less, but given how over 30 players have been getting significantly less in free agency (Gordon, Fowler, Zobrist) than Braun is set to earn other teams may think Braun is overpaid given his age.
  3. endaround
    You don't have to if you don't want. He has top notch range and it's hard to argue that. UZR has his range at 4.2 runs below average on the year at SS. His range isn't good. His UZR/150 is the worst SS this century. He's bad. And he's been bad at 3B so far too but that has only been 330+ innings vs 2250 at SS.
  4. endaround
    Villar is not below average at shortstop, he's horrendously bad. We are talking below Jeter at his worst bad. There is a reason why a shortstop who had shown he hit for about league average was available for a song. Given how bad defensively Villar is at shortstop, its questionable if he can play 2B or 3B competently. His offense this year of a RC+ of 117 is about median for 2B or 3B and that is with a BABIP of .405. If that falls below like .360, which is still a high figure he is no longer an above average bat.
  5. endaround
    He shouldn't have been called up in September either. I don't like the callup. He has been hitting poorly in AAA. If the plan was to have him as the starting SS Opening Day next year this really doesn't effect anything. Personally I would have left him down until late May ir June of next year unless he was hitting well. Yep by calling him up now instead of next May, the Brewers just traded Arcia's age 21 season (to play on a terrible team) for his age 29 season. Yes he could be shuttled back and forth next year but that would just prove he was brought up too early anyway.
  6. endaround
    This move is the equivalent of setting millions of dollars on fire. Wasting service time during this year when Arcia is not hitting in AAA.
  7. endaround
    I once did a wide miley into a 360 on the half pipe in my youth...
  8. endaround
    I disagree regardless, but Guerra isn't proven so not even close. Drew Pomeranz ERA/FIP 3.09/3.48 Junior Guerra ERA/FIP 2.70/3.67
  9. endaround
    Guerra has more trade value than Lucroy (even a solid number #3 pitcher for 3 years has like $45 million in excess value if he's being paid the minimum. If you think Guerra is a #2 you are looking at $70-80 million in excess value). There better be a huge amount coming back if Guerra is involved.
  10. endaround
    Yep, this makes both FOs looks bad.
  11. endaround
    Nimmo looks to be basically Ramon Flores. A guy whose power makes him questionable to be a corner OFer. They both killed AAA at age 23. Hitting for absolutely no power in MLB (Nimmo being small sample).
  12. endaround
    The Mets offer isn't better than just taking the draft pick. Including TDA is dangerous because there is a very good chance that when Brewer doctors look at him they'll refuse to sign off on him but by then its Tuesday and everything falls apart and Lucroy remains a Brewer. I also wonder if teams are offering up catchers besides the Padres. You would think the As would offer up Voght, the DBacks Castillo, the Twins Suzuki and the Phillies Ruiz. None of them is Lucroy but some are decent (Voght and Castillo) and all are better options than Norris.
  13. endaround
    Or lots of people don't realize that becoming Branyan, Carter, Reynolds, or Davis is actually a good outcome for a prospect. Very few top 25 hitting prospects fully bust (top 25 pitching prospects on the other hand...) but many don't even become regulars. Here is a prospect valuation chart that shows the success rate of Top 100 prospects. Once you get past the Top 50, 2 out of 5 are full busts. http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/
  14. endaround
    I'm too young to have seen him play but what is the big deal with him? Unless he was like the best defensive catcher ever, he wasn't better than Lucroy. As a Brewer, no. As a player over his career, it isn't close. Simmons should be a HOFer.
  15. endaround
    That would be hugely disappointing because the offers will only get lower after July 31st and it puts the Brewers in the position of absolutely having to move him in the offseason. I don't know if they would necessarily get lower. Outside of the Indians or Rangers I can't really pinpoint a team that would really have a ton of interest in Lucroy. The Rangers have gotten production from their catchers and the Indians may not be primed to sell part of the farm. In the offseason their will be more teams interested and the prospect packages to pick from will be more diverse. The packages honestly may not be that worse than they are this deadline. Heck they could end up better. That being said I still hope he is traded before the deadline even if it isn't for the mega package some are expecting. I'd rather not risk another late season injury/concussion crushing his winter trade value. Unless the offers are offer I gotta think you take the best offer this deadline. There are a ton of teams. Really the only teams that would not have any real improvement from Lucroy are the Giants, Nationals, Royals and Marlins. With 18-19 teams in the hunt still, there are plenty of places.
  16. endaround
    I'd guess that's why the Brewers had to throw in cash. Wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers were paying all of hills 2016 salary They would have to at least throw in what in Arizona was sending to the Brewers.
  17. endaround
    There are a ton that should be available: For 3B: The big one is Danny Valencia from the A's. After that there is Freese from the Pirates Then the Twins could move Nunez, the Marlins are still in it but they may still trade Pardo (being the Marlins and all), Beckham from the Braves perhaps. For 2B: The Twins should shop Dozier, Lawrie could be traded yet again, the Rockies could shop LeMaihu, the Padres could (and should) shop Solarte.
  18. endaround
    The Mets really need a 1B/ corner OF upgrade more than a catcher. And given those are much cheaper (be they Braun, Bruce, Beltran,etc) than Lucroy they make much more sense than giving up an ace pitcher.
  19. endaround
    Take a look at what other free agent starting pitchers have signed for the last two offseasons. For someone with his track record (8 good seasons, one bad season), $12.5M/year for 1.5 seasons is cheap and low risk. If he can show over the next month that he is healthy (no recurring injury issues, no issues going 6-7 innings, ERA under 4.00) there will be no shortage of teams asking about him. As for his "checkered injury history", he's only had one full season in the majors with less than 24 starts and only two seasons with less than 150 IP (and one of those was 148.2 IP). Its actually better than that. The contract is a bonus. Since there is no way Garza's contract for 2018 vests at $13 million (assuming he gets another 16 starts this year he would need 40 starts in 2017 for it to vest) this now really becomes a 2 year contract for $17.5 million with $2 million deferred (with even some more injury insurance on top of that). That's #4 starter money for a guy with high level stuff. If he can show last year was mostly due to dealing with an injury he could be heavily in demand. Is there enough time for that to happen before the end of July is an open question.
  20. endaround
    Fangraphs put up this article talking about how given exit velocity and launch angle of hit balls, Fielder is underperforming what could be expected. Now what he should be doing is hitting like Carter so its not like he would be great if not underperforming. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/eight-players-under-performing-their-xoba/
  21. endaround
    Scooter in 1254 PAs, 97 wRC+, 4.1 WAR. Villar in 908 PAs, 95 wRC+, 1.1 WAR Villar's value depends on if he can transfer to another position. His defense at SS is abysmal.
  22. endaround
    Tigers could also be a trade target.
  23. endaround
    If baseball wants this to stop, it's fairly simple. Fine teams. Suspend managers. Give Yost a suspension. Suspend Maddon for saying players should police the game. Fine teams 6 figures the first time with higher penalties for clearly intentional acts and exponential penalties for repeated violations. Within 5 years everything would be cleaned up.
  24. endaround
    Garza has been a much more talented pitcher over his career than Peralta. He also does have more than one pitch.
  25. endaround
    Villar has over 1700 innings at SS with a UZR of -25.1. He's part of the truly awful defense that has been together for this team.
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