igor67

Frankly if I was either one of Davis or Gindl I'd be getting in early and trying to get infield practice in whether asked to or not. Part of which makes me wonder if the reason the Davis at first experiment ended so fast might be that he just didn't have anything close to the ability to field grounders well. Maybe it makes more sense to try and reverse engineer the answer? Assume that we have room to add 1 position player who will be signable. That would include Hart as your 1 choice. Who is the best player we could reasonably add, and then figure out how you round out the rest of the roster.

All medical interventions carry some risk. Things like Tommy John are pretty safe, but not risk free. If players getting Tommy John created a perverse incentive for otherwise healthy players to get the surgery that would be just as wrong as PEDs. Conversely when all of us are getting HGH injections to slow the aging process (i.e. read it is as normal a medical procedure with well researched risks that would be comparable to say antibiotics) then it might qualify under the advancement of medical science idea. I'm pretty comfortable assuming that something that interacts physiologically with as many different systems as HGH carries some types of interaction risks even if they aren't remotely recognized yet. Given that it stimulates growth of cells it would not be shocking to find out that long term supplementation increased risks for cancers as one potential side affect.

That wouldn't be nearly as bad xis, but for some guys that's still easily 100 million reasons to follow-up one bad decision with a worse one. A full calendar year would be about as high as I'd go for a first offense. Double's every offense after that, so anything after a second would effectively end a career (and the second one would in all likelihood anyway).

There might, might be an argument for stiffer penalties but an automatic lifetime ban is way way over the top. Braun has managed to make the idea of due process about as popular as it was after the OJ trial, but you absolutely need it. If you think I'm a jilted Braun defender than I encourage you to read this link http://forensicpsychologist.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/new-analyses-undermine-perception-of.html I'm a biochemist by training (verifiable as well if you check the deepest message board archives as well) and for once that report is NOT sensationalist our DNA detection methods have gotten that sensitive that it is trivial to pick up incidentally deposited DNA. I am not an expert on the various current methods for PED detection, but I guarantee that in the arms race to keep up with new types of drug regimes there will inevitably be weird fluky sounding mistakes in the tests as we learn about there limits. Statistics itself also provides a powerful argument for the inevitability of condemning an innocent person on the basis of a single testing procedure, even a well thought out one. The second argument is very simple once testing becomes an all or nothing game there is no incentive for telling the truth and every incentive to follow-up the cheating with whatever means the persons conscience will allow (keeping in mind that we already know they were willing to cheat). As a corollary other athletes in particular seem to keep harping how Braun's punishment wasn't enough because the big money in his contract doesn't kick in until next year. This completely ignores the value of his lost endorsements, which by itself is fairly significant. The future value of lost endorsements and business opportunities probably dwarfs the difference in lost salary. It is a hard thing to quantify, but one consistent thing in the Wisconsin market is that there is a lot of money to be made in retirement if you are a franchise guy. How much of that went out the window? I'd even argue that has special value because that money is like a combination of insurance and a pension that is nice to have in a world where athletes often find themselves in financial trouble once the paychecks stop coming in.

I noticed adam that Cincy was not on your list of superior farm systems. Yet they have been on the list of we aren't as well prepared as x lists for the last couple of years. The other teams will have their moment in the sun as well. Or as I like to think about it think about how short the various windows have been for teams that went the prospect route the last 15 years. Tampa is getting close to standing out as the exemplar yet they built their foundation on years of top draft picks and as a recent baseball prospectus article ( http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21393 )showed have kept it going with ridiculously one-sided trades. They basically generate an All-star every year on trade activity. The same article showed Melvin does pretty well on value, though not on that level, and furthermore showed a negative correlation between trade value and trade volume. Considering that Amaro and Dombrowski are the only 2 other GMs who have done as well as Tampa in trades I see little evidence that Tampa trade victories are anything other than shrewd trading and some luck. Which means a lot of weighing of value generally not a mysterious long term plan, which the data shows Melvin has done OK at. When long term planning in a competitive environment you need to find ways to get better value than ones competitors, which Melvin has demonstrated vs. his competitors. The draft rules and international signing rules have significantly changed the strategies to out draft and develop teams. It is pretty much a straight-up race to out evaluate everyone else no fancy strategic moves are left. Further since it is such a regimented system budget is largely irrelevant and the evidence clearly shows a much greater reluctance to part with prospects in trade I see very little chance of accumulating overwhelming waves of talent. Brewerfan grew up in an environment where there was a much freer flow of talent in between majors and minors. One could sacrifice talent in one for the other by budget resources and trades both avenues now seem at best dramatically reduced. I also think we have a decent model of someone who has been operating a long term plan under these constraints, Beane. It no longer looks like loading up on minor leaguers instead you try to draft the best players you can and accumulate the best major league squad you can every year with whatever options are available. Given their payroll the results have predictably been pretty bad most of the time, but some years things go your way. Importantly it also tends to put a much shorter time horizon on moves. Certainly one tries to understand future implications, but by placing so many rules on how teams can operate it means that more and more of the team variation from year to year will be luck based! The rational move is a higher discount then on future value in many ways. So no this is not an argument over any of the things listed in the posts above, I submit that the only viable long term plan is to draft the best players you can, and focus on getting the best total value you can in trades, waiver wire, and free agents. And too many that will look like a short term year to year plan even if it is not. You don't fold a bad hand in poker until the risks outweigh the rewards. The marketing of the team should not be mistaken for the team building strategy. Another interesting data point to look at is that the only time in Brewers history where they would have gone on extended playoffless streaks was when they where an expansion team at first, and then when they went super cheap on the payroll post 1992 (and even that streak could have been broken up by some decent luck on the health of D'amico and Eldred). Things are going to have more of the NFL type feel where teams pop in and out of the picture more often now. So yes there are times to take a hit to next year's playoff chances to improve the future, but there currently few other GMs are providing a lot of those opportunities in trades.

Monty your response completely missed the mark and shows that in fact you completely missed the novelty of my argument. You might feel like your having the same argument, but that is because you are stuck interpreting a world where the only plan is win now or burn it to the ground. Further I never said or implied anything about lacking a plan. I didn't look up the salaries because the number was completely immaterial to my argument. The Brewers could be at max payroll already, and it wouldn't change the point that dealing a guy for 'prospects' just because there is a low playoff chance shows a lack of planning. Those prospects have to bring back substantial value to make up for torching a veterans value to next year's playoff chances. The playoff world is very different than it was the vast majority of the Selig years. The Brewers would have also made the playoffs in 78, 79, 80, 87, 88, 92 under the current rules and a larger number of seasons they were within a couple of games of making it. With the current rules there are very few ways to try and divert money from payroll into prospects. The player development money is pretty much capped and it is relatively small compared to the major league budget. If a team loses a trade that talent leaves and is very hard to replace other than out scouting the other teams under the current rules. The cap system is working to a certain extent as intended, there are more competitive teams every year and fewer juggernauts.

I bought the success cycle Kool-aid for many years, but as a model it is far too simplistic to actually run teams. Either you 'go for it' or trade off everything not nailed down for the future. Given the evidence of prospects actually available on the trade market over the last few years I see a lot less value in trading for hordes of them then I used too. This is why I think it is important to not lose sight of the value of fielding a solid team next year. Without looking up and calculating the salaries for next year let's assume for the moment that the Brewers can spend 10 million dollars on free agents in the offseason without losing money. Given the international and draft rules I see little reason not to spend all that money and say improve the teams chances by 5%. The flipside is that to say deal away Lohse would require a pretty healthy degree of talent to make up for what I'd ballpark as a 10% drop in playoff chances next year. With these as rough guides to my thinking I just do not see a lot of dealing veterans for prospect deals being worthwhile in the offseason. Aoki stands as a potential exception because of the potential to replace him internally.

I cry fowl on the Powerball analogy. A playoff run in the 2 wildcard era is not even close to that wildly improbable. I'd ballpark without any major moves that the Brewers would have about a 20% of making the playoffs in some fashion given the true talent level. Not great by any stretch, but not something to be dismissed as a flight of fancy. On point the more Gindl and Davis keep hitting (would be nice if Logan could dial it up) the more it makes sense to deal Aoki one way or another.

It's still pretty hard to say, but he has hit 100 ABs with a .350 average in a pitcher's league. Given he always had the athletic tools I'll gladly take any kind of showing that he can hit for average.

Maldy has gone back to hitting like what his minor league record suggests he can. The nice thing for him is that he has gotten those valuable big league starts, so he can bounce around for the next 10 years as a defensive oriented back-up catcher but his better arm is not enough to try and grab more starts from Lucroy. I kind of like Lucroy grabbing some starts at first, but only because they have hit so poorly. In general though letting a catcher get 1/5 days off and staying fresh is a pretty good usage of resources in my book.

I think your probably correct on interpreting the light trading season on the second wild card. We will have to see if it is just a flash in the pan phenomena or it becomes the new normal. Blocking trades on the waiver wire seems to have gotten less worrisome lately as well, so it is possible that is playing a factor with more teams wanting to take a few more weeks before doubling down.

Aoki has been a nice bat, but both Gindl and Davis could provide solid OBP and better power than Aoki. If you like what you see the remainder of the year I think you deal Aoki in the offseason and play the kids.

Other than draft pick and looking at guys for Heckathorn, no. Melvin has certainly shown restraint when rosters expand in the past. I'd guess that Nelson, Sanchez, and Halton would make it up and that could easily be it. Prince to give them another infielder maybe.

Disappointing, but not surprising. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21393 This would strongly suggest that Melvin is reasonably careful and didn't find anything to his liking. There is still a whole month were more deals could happen even for relievers.

It's not that hard to imagine seeing Morris up in September or Heckathorn, which makes one think that the AFL roster might be not very interesting this year. That said I think at this point Morris would have to step it up since the have so many young guys they are trying to hand ABs too. How about bumping Richardson up to AA to free up an A ball spot for Roache?

Glad to see Cooper back and hitting with the T-Rats, put that with Taylor having a decent game and Roache continuing the monster July there is a lot of positive maybe enough to rub off on some of the other guys and maybe they could have a really special final month of the season. On a slightly lesser note nice to see Richardson hitting OK along with Nicky its giving me a reason to check the Brevard box scores again.

Small quibble, but Gindl has hit pretty well so far so it's not like he deserves to sit. Fransisco may not be one of our guys, but he is still worth investing playing time with as well.

It's possible the Brewers might kick in significant salary, but Weeks is not so highly paid that a team that wants him will necessarily view his salary as a major issue. Money could easily change hands, but we are not talking albatross here. Detroit might also be quite receptive in a go for it year knowing the Weeks and Prince get along and there is already good chemistry there.

Nice article makes you think Wagner might get a little more time than the usual college guy. With so little pitching experience and most of that in relief it is quite a lot.

I'd concur that Gallardo will likely make it through waivers in a week or so and a hot streak of 3-4 starts could easily make him very attractive in August. Even the mighty Verlander is scuffling a bit this year. Guys with track records can change attitudes pretty quickly, I have no idea whether or not it is likely, but it is far from impossible. Similarly Aramis could turn it on and find himself the big bat on the market.

By the time September rolls around it's possible we might have poached everyone from AAA with even a gleam of major league talent. Kind of crazy.

He should be driving a hard bargain on Lohse, best of a rare commodity potentially on the market no significant deadline from the team standpoint. He is the best chance to get All-star caliber talent back. A deal for Lohse early also devalues our other major league assets now and in the offseason since it makes it difficult make a plausible case for competitiveness next year. Having to deal Axford, Gonzalez, Aramis, Gallardo, and Aoki at firesale prices represents a real outcome of the timing of the deal and potentially a significant loss of talent. Conversely dealing just Axford and Gonzalez (definitely a great sell high candidate) for a reasonable return and taking a modest shot at having a solid next year with the option to deal the rest of the assets is not a terrible strategy. Sheer plausibility alone shows how unlikely it is to deal off that many major leaguers in a season at anything less than firesale prices. Realistically expecting more than 2 more trades of significance this year would be a lot.

On the Roache front not only are wrists classic long recover type injuries he also had to deal with making the jump to pro-ball at the same time. If his August is like his July I'd say he moves clearly into the #3 spot as the one guy who could be a clear All-star type bat.

Any insights into how Seidel has increased his K rate so much this season? His K/BB rate is great and would seemingly get one quite interested yet his HR rate has also ballooned this year over previous just a PCL fluke?

There's a chance he cracks our top 5, but I'd have to say our rankings for next year are going to be pretty fluid. Most of our top prospects are farther down in the minors but with the way the season has gone and possibly more deals on the way it would appear that there will be a large number of graduations by the end of the season. As always the recent draftees have played little, so the last month + of the season will have an outsized impact on rating them. Then of course a few guys like Morris and Roache have had so-so seasons so far, but a strong finish could move them around a fair bit. Delmonico too for that matter, a substantial drop in his error rate or uptick in his batting average are all doable here at the end and could really affect how he is viewed heading into next season