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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. With this big of an issue, what about putting him on the DL to start the season, and let him get his swing figured out in AAA. If he's up and it still takes him another week to get going at minimum, it's all going to spiral in terms of pressing and chasing performance. Better to get right and come in fresh and confident in your approach (maybe even with a chip on the shoulder over the whole ordeal), than starting to get moody and saying your not getting a chance everytime Edmonds gets a start after an 0-fer night.
  2. I was curious, but dubious about the movie at the outset, but I loved the ending. Mostly because I didn't see the last twist coming. I had read enough to know pretty much who the villian would be. There was just something wildly entertaining about sitting through the movie and then this, ridiculous over the top in any other context moral dilemma comes up. I liked it just for that while the rest was passable, but good enough to make the ending work.
  3. I was at UW during 3 of Dayne's 4 years and the Final Four run it definitely was awesome. There was just such an energy and buzz during the week for Marh Madness after that first weekend.
  4. Bucky your statement should be amended to "with Humans involved good luck". We have seen that the private sector is just as capable of messing things up as well.
  5. You could probably make an argument to Boras for a shorter contract extension with Prince. Say more like 4-5 years only with a primary incentive that He gets to Free Agency again at 29 or 30, and can make another big score. If he did a 7 year now he'd be what 32 when it's done? People feel a lot different about signing a guy for 4+ year contracts when they are large 32 year old men.
  6. Someone else brought this up, but gold makes no sense as an Armageddon currency. Actual commodities that you will use make way more sense during a complete economic collapse. Gold has 1 actual economic value, as a good conductor for electronics outside of that all of it's value is tied up in as much faith as any paper currency. I urge more people to adopt the attitude that gold is worthless.
  7. I could see Eveland as a solid choice, no reason he couldn't have at least a Doug Davis Career. I was and still am convinced with an actual opportunity that Jim Rushford could have put up useful numbers nothing spectacular, but somewhere close to an .800 OPS. The king of all whiffs though for me is Hendrickson. That line he put up as a pitcher in High Desert had me convinced he had the stuff, enough smarts, and the attitude to make it and do quite well for himself. In retrospect though that year in High Desert looks like an extreme outlier from the rest of his minor league career. I am glad we don't have a team out there anymore because it made it so difficult to really figure out what you had in pitchers or hitters.
  8. Call me crazy, but if you want the train to make money, put Wi-Fi and a Starbucks in one of the cars. Presto there another 10 minutes of time you save a bunch of people. I think there's a couple of different types of critiques, one is essentially it will never work. The others are more what I'd like to call ideas for improvement. Improvement is certainly possible, but I'd urge some caution in taking in rejected suggestion for improvement and believing then the project will fail. For these kinds of projects the diverse local interests make a lot of these small issues very hard to wrap your head around unless you immerse yourself in planning, so that you can see all of the trade offs. Random aside I don't see why the faith in roads. Car companies lose money all the time like rail companies. A smartly designed Chicago to Twin Cities rail opens up a whole bunch of new tourist business models along I-94. As someone pointed out the cost to a family is likely to be prohibitive, but the right kind of attractions could draw individuals and couples up from Chicago with the convenience of rail.
  9. That UZR number for Weeks almost certainly looks so wacky because of the small sample. I'm not saying he didn't get better, because he's always had the tools to be an above average defender. Elite performance out of the blue however seems like a reach, though that would give the Brewers probably the best up the middle defense in baseball. Just a quick thought on SBs. I like them and really think it adds to the excitement of the game (I fondly recall the early 90's teams that had players up and down the line-up that would atleast try here and there). However given that no one can isolate a statistical effect of pitcher fear (which would not be hard if it existed), I suspect the statement is a carry over from the Jackie Robinson days. His style and Newness of dancing around clearly unnerved some pitchers back then. Over the years though it lost that novelty, pitchers and catchers adapted and it became part of normal preparation.
  10. With the addition of Davis on the pitching side I do think it will be a lot better, mostly because Melvin didn't push just one button. He got some good pen depth, a couple of starters and while I might not think that the defensive improvements will be huge (going from two good defensive players to possibly 2 excellent defensive players isn't that large of a jump in my mind) there are a lot of ways for that half of the club to be dramatically better. And Bush and Parra could easily improve with some regression to the mean let alone actually getting to be better. So I guess I'm inclined to say a definite yes on the improvement, but it seems to me that whether we are a marginal wild card team at 85 wins or a real strong team at 90 wins hinges on what kind of offense we see from Hart, Escobar, and Gomez. I don't think any of them need to be major forces, but if they can all slot in close to batting .300 like they need to do to be effective it should be a pretty good team.
  11. A good farm system can find solid contributors on a fairly regular basis. It's finding the good prospects that turn into the truly elite players, that I suspect is luck as much as shrewd talent evaluation. And you need some of those guys to have a playoff team. Now you don't want to push it to the extreme where you have locked up almost all of your payroll on 2 guys, and you can only have minimum salary players everywhere else.
  12. I think the strategy is a little more contingent than just one or the other. If you have major holes then by all means try and take care of as much as possible. On the other hand for a mid range team you don't have holes so much as some soft spots, and depth questions. In that case you are better off having some reserve that you can sit back and see exactly where the major issues are going to crop up that year. It's easy to point to the pitching and say that's a likely issue. However take Week's injury last year, I wasn't a big fan of the Lopez deal but that type of injury is the kind of situation you might want some reserve money for. In this case Doug really did great in season production from Lopez, and at least kept things interesting.
  13. I'm pro-Raines, Blyleven, Trammel, Larkin, and Martinez. One valuable way to look at Larkin in my mind is to think back to the twilight of his career when he was still often the 4th best SS in the game behind the trinity. There was all kind of talk about how he could easily miss out when he'd be a shoo-in compared to the Yount- Ripken era. Well what happened to that lofty reign of SS? One's career tapered way off due to injury. Another saw his start dim a bit based on a realization that he is the anti-Ozzie SS. And the third moved to third. And the other SS that were supposed to keep stepping forward in this era of the offensive SS have not really panned out in the superstar level. My argument for Martinez is that 30+ years into the DH era it is a position that can be defined. Despite all the noise about finding a guy to play that position who can just mash, I ask where are these players? I certainly am not seeing this trend towards the long career of the clod of a player having a HOF run as a DH. The data actually suggests that it is harder to be a career DH and hit enough to make the HOF, than as a first basemen. Almost like there is something to notion of pinch hitting, and not being in the rhythm of the game. Molitor's career arc was pretty different, but he's really the only other guy I'm aware of who really put together a streak of dominance as a DH, (Frank Thomas continued to play a lot of 1st base throughout his career). All of this suggests that DH should have maybe a lower offensive standard than 1st base.
  14. My advice is to build a gigantic Netflix cue. Spend a few months trying to get to everything as fast as possible. Then realize one day that you don't have nearly enough time to watch all of the stuff that is kind of sort of worth watching. Then sit back and then enjoy that for less than half the price of cable you know get to watch whatever you'd like except certain live sports. Netflix even helped me watch less TV in general. TV series that I'd have to follow religiously to keep track of story lines I just started to wait until they were on DVD. And I know that by now I've lost interest in even following a lot of those.
  15. It's not monumentally dumb, but why would I want a 36 year old mediocre defensive OF on my team for 6.5 million? If he consistently hit like Matt Stairs might be OK. It's not like he puts you over the top this year where you are trading off the lower price now to get him on for the downside risk later. 2 years 10 million makes way more sense.
  16. In my experience as a collector they likely put a hold on your account as they were investigating it for fraud potential. The large deposit bounced check is a type of scam people try to run. I'd make the decision on how much you needed that credit card, possibly get another one first, and if you can take the hit give them up a call and say this is the free market calling you corporate fool I'm taking my business elsewhere.
  17. The best thing the Cubs could do right now for this trade is to cut Silva. Then they can at least say they saved a couple of million on a guy they would have cut anyway. I can't imagine they would do that, because I have yet to see a team do that. On the other hand Jack dealt one of the most worthless players in baseball (and he did Betancourt earlier too) for a player who could actually produce something of value. He may yet get to the point where they can't keep him on the team, but I haven't seen any clear cut example where Bradely has sunk the team by being a difficult guy. He just wears out his welcome. Which means he doesn't have a negative value like some have suggested, particularly to a team that has the DH. For 5 million over two year the Mariners have potentially picked up a legitimate middle of the order bat. That's a pretty good risk to reward ratio.
  18. Just to chime in that Byrnes has been pretty bad those last couple of years, so I'm not convinced he isn't worse than most minor league FA types.
  19. I could see a more complex scenario possibly making some sense. They swap Lowe and Suppan. Hart is traded for Soriano from the Braves to stack the pen and Gamel moves to RF. Lowell then serves as a back-up at 3rd and OF, and overall we get a higher quality pitcher.
  20. I like the SB aesthetically, and I could see a certain amount of excitement with the current config being a really good running team. That said I think the base advancement is an important area to focus on. Here's to more scoring from first on Prince and Braun doubles. Getting to third on a 1 out single from Braun to score of a Prince Sac fly. Staying out of double plays to just give those power guys a chance
  21. Rich Harden is a slightly healthier Jeff D'amico. I'm not at all sold that 7.5 million is a great value for a guy who's such a low bet to give a lot of innings. Bedard for example you can atleast count on to make it through a good chunk of the season and break down late. With the current roster construction I can see investing in a lottery ticket for about 5 million. More than that doesn't seem like it makes a lot of sense. Wolf and Harden aren't prospects, so trying to base what they are going to do based on fastball speed doesn't make a whole lot of sense. We have actual major league data to look at and consider in context and not just cherry pick a prefered stat.
  22. My sense is that Melvin has moved this to a mid 80's win total type team. That's not stellar, but in most seasons that will be competitive for a playoff spot late into the season, and that doesn't count any benefit of being in it and making a big trade at the deadline. Further improvement is going to be tough, but I think he's done enough to field a respectable team that he can afford to sit back and try for something special/complex. From his perspective imagine the risk involved in making a play for Lackey only to see most of the other best options disappear? There was a substantial time risk to spending a lot of effort trying to match up on trades for starting pitching. Put another way now that we know what he spent the money on Cameron and Hardy for Gomez, Hawkins, and Wolf seems solid when you plug Escobar in at SS.
  23. Years are definitely an issue, but 3 years 27 million is pretty reasonable by any recent standards. I'd have been a lot less worried (though not excited) about Suppan if that had been the deal. 9 million per year is 25% less than Suppan, which is pretty substantial deflation. And I like the high risk high reward guys too, but you have to construct your rotation to at least be competitive when they are injured. So you need to have a couple of replacement level or hopefully slightly better options for 4th and 5th starters that you have some roster flexibility with who can bridge a gap, when Harden goes down for a couple of months. If you start counting a couple of those guys as rotation mainstays your playing roulette because it's far more likely both are injured at the same time, then they stay healthy long enough by themselves to propel you to the playoffs.
  24. I like bad contract swaps, if you find a partner who is unloading something that has value to you. Juan Pierre and the career .720 OPS not so much value. Something like a RF with a bloated contract who's only going to put up an .800 to .825 OPS, but is paid 20 million the next two years. That would be a useful kind of swap.
  25. I liken this to going for the TD or kicking the FG. Having gotten so little seemingly out of their power arms the last few years because of injury, it's hard not to seriously consider trying to get them up to the big leagues and contributing something. Chad Fox (yes I know not a farmhand) had way more value then JM Gold.
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