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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Degree seeking students aren't that free to transfer. Which is to say beyond freshmen year in many cases you are going to run into logistics hurdles if you transfer and making sure you can finish as quickly as your original school. Which is both the double hit on the opportunity cost as well as the tuition hit for the majority.
  2. igor67
    I kind of like it as well. I'll be a huge fan if we move up significantly. It shouldn't be a focus of the pick, but getting lucky enough to pick in the top 6 could be a difference maker in terms of competitiveness in a couple of years. Somewhat unlikely given how long development normally takes, but getting a top talent potentially is always important.
  3. igor67
    I'll amplify that a bit, everyone lost the trade last year in terms of competitiveness But at least we still have a chance at getting some value from Ruiz and Gasser.
  4. igor67
    Expansion is really contraction of the playoffs as Chorizo pointed out indirectly. The old system ensures you have a month and a half of playoff games in Oct and November. And with most teams having a year end big rivalry game it's just fun. I can still hate on the Gophers for costing us a chance at a title with that stupid tie almost 30 years later.
  5. igor67
    In the interest of fairness to the range of outcomes, given Winker's injuries there is definitely a universe were after getting dealt Huira out hits him as a DH. It's probably a 10-20% outcome even with a change of scenery though I don't see at this point that Huira has the upside with all those Ks that Winker provides though.
  6. igor67
    I'm now seeing a clear path for 3 different positions to have noticeable defensive upgrades next year which is pretty big. Compared to other ideas that have been floated Winker is among the better gambles to give actual middle of the order production with a downside that is at least serviceable is most cases. I would agree that Huira seems like he has to be gone at this point since your better DH options if Winker craters are more likely to involve giving Yelich more time at DH and trying another OFer.
  7. igor67
    I suspect at least one player out of the Rowdy, Wong, Hiura group ends up traded. The alternative is trying to find that utility type player hitter to complement that group but it feels a little more likely to me that they end up doing something to shuffle that situation via trade. If the pitching comes back around and some of the OFers emerge it is a workable group, but not beyond next year.
  8. igor67
    The way rosters have tilted in favor of pitchers may also factor in to being willing to risk exposing someone like Cam. Even on a bad team it's hard to avoid giving a position player well over 100ABs during the season these days.
  9. igor67
    It's very much the opposite of naive (going back a few pages). Because of the defensive profiles even if 1 or 2 of the OFers struggle at the plate they only detract from the team value so much and Taylor is basically your built in replacement level guy to take up some of those ABs, and you still have 4 guys to try for 3 full time spots. So I'm assuming at least 1 struggle significantly and we are still almost certainly come out way ahead. If 2 of the 4 struggle mightily then we are seeing more Yelich in LF and someone else is picking up more DH ABs. And because of the way value works if we get some replacement level performances from the rookies we only need 1 out of the 4 to have a big year and come out way ahead. As others have pointed out Renfroe is post 30 and with an older player skill set, so there is no guarantee he doesn't drop off a fair bit either. What I have no confidence in picking is which one of those 4 prospects is going to have a big year. I just like the odds of 1 of them being awesome if given the chance and giving them more opportunities increase our odds of playing the right one.
  10. igor67
    The hesitation on starting a pile of rookies and being competitive does make some amount of sense, but having Taylor and Yelich around gives something of a floor on some spots, but even in the most extreme case where Taylor is the 4th OFer, and Yelich mostly becomes a DH we still have 4 prospects ready more or less to try and show what they can do in 3 spots. All of them have strong defensive profiles, all have more offensive upside then Renfroe. Not a guarantee, but in terms of being competitive next year the defense improvement and number of options makes underperforming Renfroe's base value relatively unlikely and our best chances at being a really good team likely involves one or more of those rookies having great campaigns and generating a lot more value then we could ever hope from Renfroe.
  11. igor67
    With 3 pitchers there are solid odds that at least 1 of those pitchers produces a similar level of value in the coming year compared to what Renfroe produces. There is certainly plenty of reason to guess the most likely outcome is him producing more value, but arms and options are good things. There is also competitive value in not being committed to anyone of the pitchers in particular, they will get chances but none is likely to get too many chances. When evaluating this trade Renfoe was dealt just last year for JBJ and the historical trend is that this type of player does not get big trade pickups across the league anymore. If this was 2002 I'd be disappointed in the return, but in 2022 it's OK.
  12. igor67
    I can understand and am not bothered by the move, but at closer to veteran minimum prices I would expect Suter will bounce around the league for awhile. Not Jesse Orosco long, but it's not hard to imagine him pitching to 40 either in shorter stints.
  13. igor67
    Amari is working his way towards Terrell Buckley level of bad draft pick. At least many of our more recent high level busts have the decency to not see much of the field, or just be pedestrian.
  14. igor67
    I've long been a fan of say a 50% tax on political advertisements.
  15. igor67
    It's hard to reconstruct what the thinking would have been, but I don't see Ray's tools and raw profile beating out Ruiz with tools and performance at AAA. Brinson's high level performance was less than Ruiz. Grisham and Lutz were highly regarded but also had questions and debate from the beginning. I could see someone have rated them more highly say in their draft years if they really loved projection, but I stand by my statement with the clarification that I recognize we had many OFers over the years draft high and ranked high for awhile but the flameout has been pretty incredible. Cain and Brantley have been the 2 best, but quirks of timing and draft status held them from that super high prospect rating as far as I can remember.
  16. igor67
    I might be forgetting someone, but one way to understand Ruiz's prospect profile is that this is probably the only year of the Brewerfan era where Ruiz wouldn't be the number OF prospect in the organization based on what he did last year. There are enough tools that doing what he did at AAA last year I think would have put him ahead of anyone else in any other year including various First rounders in those 20 years. It's actually kind of depressing and surprising how few OFers we've had over that time.
  17. igor67
    I'm curious from those who watch him a lot if Black has the tools to be a noticeably above average defender at first. Mid-range power high OBP and above average defense at first would be a very solid potential mix. I'm thinking John Olerud or Doug Mientkiewicz.
  18. igor67
    I feel like Rodgers trust issues stem from being paranoid about interceptions and overly focused on giving one up because the receiver is in the 'wrong' spot
  19. igor67
    That's an interesting analysis Jopal. Outside the deadline things have definitely tended to work out better and that is enough trades that I would hope internally they are trying to figure out why they tend to keep getting players who underperform after being traded for in contrast to other earlier season or offseason acquisitions.
  20. igor67
    Very helpful, the old Soudan mine location in northern MN (it is naturally ventilated) might be something of a unicorn location for something like that then. Most of it is not used as part of the State Park, It is very deep and used to house a large particle physics experiment. I'm not sure how water issues were dealt with, but I never saw any signs it was a problem the couple of times I was down there (multiple levels and half a mile down). Not sure if it is close enough to Duluth to be suitable for that type of back-up.
  21. igor67
    I do believe that means we now control our own destiny again.
  22. igor67
    For as rough as it has felt the Brewers are 14-12 so far in September. Obviously with where things stand at the moment not finishing off the sweep in Cincy hurts, but the Phillies have really been trying to help at 10-13 for the month.
  23. igor67
    Perhaps a silly question, but since a geothermal system only requires about 8 ft of depth to get a more consistent temperature is there a reason below ground storage would be cost prohibitive?
  24. igor67
    Clearly the Bucs haven't figured out that one should just tune Rodgers out. I wonder how much coaching time they wasted on looking over that trying to find a nonexistent tell. Bonus points to Rodgers though if the headgame is enough to cost the Bucs another win.
  25. igor67
    If the DH spot became more available for Yelich I could see a version of that though I would bet on them hedging and keeping Taylor as a 4th/5th OFer. He's had success with the part time thing which isn't always easy.
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