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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    I feel pretty good about the offseason, the bullpen for me is where I still have questions. Given the nature of bullpens it is still possible to be pleasantly surprised but I was expecting another mid-level vet to just give a few more options to sort out. I'm OK with not doing extensions on the starting pitchers, because it is almost certainly the case that even if we guessed relatively correctly on which one would not get hurt, we are going to end up paying top #1 starter dollars to someone who is about to pass their peak and will probably pitch mostly like a #2 starter for the duration of the contract.
  2. igor67
    Excluding the honorable mentions who were really full time players, Loretta has to be number 1, enough versatility to play all over the IF and reasonably well or better along with that .355 OBP. Even in his era his offense was good for an up the middle guy. I'd put Hall and Counsell ahead of Perez for sure as well. That .288 OBP for Perez is kind of rough.
  3. igor67
    It's actually part of why I'm so excited about the OFers. The actual performance lines for the current group have generally had fewer questions than that prior group. Still room for disappointment of course, but Harrison was a whole lot of projection and just enough performance to make it look exciting.
  4. igor67
    I don't know after the Yankees signed him to a 15 year 500 million contract he might not care.
  5. igor67
    Or alternatively the candidate was slow in saying yes and they were trying to keep going and the timing was just weird.
  6. igor67
    Coop and Prince are definitely 1-2 in some order, no one else ends up particularly close. Scott and Sexson make sense in the 3rd and 4th spots.
  7. igor67
    Big difference between 6 years and over a decade when it comes to long term potential concerns.
  8. igor67
    I'm with Ron, I'm momentarily enjoying what it feels like to spend like a drunken sailor in free agency but this level of chaos isn't good in the long run. Spring practice is going to be abnormally important with this much roster turn over, though a slight bonus since a chunk of those players are from his old program so there is familiarity.
  9. igor67
    Yep last year was a painful reminder that you can never have too much pitching. Compared to what Suter would have made if we retained him one more year the little bit extra mostly as incentives definitely looks like a very solid value play.
  10. igor67
    I'm most annoyed at the cheapshots from 5th rate internet commentators. I happened to tune in about 10 minutes after it happened with no clue. I ended up not watching long because it was clear the announcers were just as shocked as everyone else. And that was fine, even great people were sharing an unprecedented moment. While even the few minutes I watched people stumbling over words and effectively repeat themselves was painful to watch. It was also real. Taking an hour to figure out how to move forward really isn't that long for an unprecedented situation. People wanting to complain should take the chance to make the world just a little bit better and step back instead. I've unfortunately had to sit through executive level crisis training. It is depressing and hard to try and strategize for an organization how to have both a robust and flexible response to anything. The right call was made, and as Samurai said instead of making a snap judgement they took a bit of time to at least have a process. So in my estimation take the moment to be thankful you didn't have to be making any decisions or anything else related to the situation.
  11. igor67
    Someone else has to have said it somewhere, but Nixon gives all kinds of Desmond Howard vibes. And yes this game has been nuts.
  12. igor67
    If he is at the point where he is getting concussions from that type of hit he needs to retire. Some people just end up super susceptible. I had a student get to the point she was reaggravating concussions running track. Given no one has actually pointed to any symptom immediately afterwards I can't fault the protocol. While it was a hard hit if players are getting pulled without other symptoms on similar plays you will be evaluating guys all the time.
  13. igor67
    I like our chances if we get 3 INTs and a fumble each game.
  14. igor67
    As I had indicated in my original post there is a time to mess around for the extra year of service time, but I also indicated that because high draft picks do tend to make the big leagues at a pretty good rate the extra draft pick is worth more total service time. What the possible compensation does is my estimation is make the straight-up value of the two approaches close enough that you will end up factoring in other considerations before making the call-up. Like perceived chances of winning. For example a player like Taylor was when we finally called him up would have a very small chance of ROY, so trying to hold him for an extra year is potentially quite valuable, cheap effective utility types with options help fill the roster very economically. But your Braun, Fielder, types you give them a shot when they are ready and maybe build that good will to get all the things: Extra pick, immediate help for the team, good will leading to an early extension. Weimer, Felick, and Chourio for example I'd be worried about even in a smaller number of ABs them earning the year of service time anyway. Not that I can ballpark those odds but in a shorter span of ABs Frelick becomes more likely to hit for a silly batting average. Weimer could certainly have a great couple of months and hit a boatload of HRs before pitchers adjust.
  15. igor67
    Someone will certainly pay him to play next year, but I find myself wondering if anyone would go past 2 years at the moment.
  16. igor67
    What I was finding for playing time numbers indicates there are maybe 30 rookies a year who have a shot at winning the award. Which is to say I could only find 20 rookies last year who got at least 400 ABs. I didn't look specifically at pitchers but the point is try to get a rough idea on the chances of a prospect finishing in the top 3 in voting. And it looks like if you've got a guy with tools and pedigree that you are going to give a chance to, he's got about a 10% chance to land in the top 3. That is consistent with the Brewers having 3 actual winners in team history. If I had more time I could go through the entire voting history to see how many top 3 finishers we've had. Equally important you have not addressed the massive value difference between an extra year of control at arbitration salary. I did a partial look at the ROY and was reminded of Casey Mcgee finishing 5th in voting for the Brewers. I think we'd all trade another draft pick vs. 1 more year of control for him (and he only played 116 games)
  17. igor67
    I am a little surprised he never bought in to owning a sports team of some type, the thinly veiled monopoly aspect of sports fits his normal investing preferences. Then again he also like physical products.
  18. igor67
    Most first round picks make the majors. I can't locate some of the analysis I had seen on those chances, but even assuming a simple 50% of making it the pick will generate an expected 3 years of team control. And half of those will be pre-arby years. Versus the one extra year that will be an arby year for the player in question. There are additional impacts as well like the chances of building goodwill with the player probably go out the window if you pull an obvious stash you in the minor leagues for a few months move. And goodwill is worth something (possible the chance at one of those great early career extensions for example). The extra pick also generates more draft pool money to play with for signing bonuses which can be an asset as well. It's not an open and shut case but to claim it is trivial value is underselling it quite a bit. If I wasn't close to contending it probably makes sense to play for the extra year of control, but the Brewers are in the near perfect situation to give it a shot. A number of highly rated players who look ready and we are lacking in obviously better options. I'm a big believer in bites of the apple, but trying to bet on what that will look like after Burnes and Woody is murky enough I'd just as soon have the draft pick at that point.
  19. igor67
    Without double checking all the historical roster details there are plenty of times over the last 25 years I'd have happily traded one of our veteran relievers for a player like Huira, and not hope we'd somehow win the chance to snag him if non-tendered. There is still a fair bit of cheap team control there, he can plausibly perform and the roster spot as well as providing a really big upside still that is hard to find. It's high risk to be sure, but for a non-contending team the possibility of that big break-out is a lot more valuable then say getting a Garret Cooper level performance.
  20. igor67
    Whether or not it had a big impact on the prices I do think it is a healthy dose of cold water for those who speculate on prices too much that just driving the price up can trigger some shifts to help keep people more honest in their valuations.
  21. igor67
    I still assume Huira will be dealt. Are there any moderately expensive relievers with a good track record out there? Free agents might be a tad too expensive, but someone a notch above Boxberger but more expensive might be an attractive swap for both teams.
  22. igor67
    Mitch Haniger is a good example of a late bloomer type that Lutz might be. Didn't hit AAA until his age 25 season and even then it was split between AA. Pitchers seem more likely to get the right mix of development in mid to late 20's where they have a nice little career and generate some value. They don't directly alter a franchise, but if you could fill your AAA roster every year with interesting maybes you'd generate 2-3 players a year who could give you 10 WAR careers almost all of that super cheap.
  23. igor67
    9 pages and not a single even mild pushback on the trade. That has to be a record for any fan site. But from every Brewer angle this is just a no-brainer. Get better in the short term at both a position of need and from the side of the plate we needed. Trade a player with relatively little value to us even though he has value. We stay quite young. The prospect traded does have some question marks. So I can see why everyone likes, I just never thought I'd see a thread were it happened. And I forgot the throw-in pitching arms who really aren't throw-ins.
  24. igor67
    It certainly looks that way, and giving myself the chance to think about it is way worse than looking the other way on steroids. Actively being willing to manipulate game outcomes well there is a reason the gambling ban has been around for so long.
  25. igor67
    I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you had a bunch on both players already since they were locals, Seth. Are possible late bloomers who grew-up in the North a new angle? It's unlikely the move is a difference maker, but I strongly believe in having a lot of plausible bullpen options on hand every year, so it's hard not to like the team using this avenue.
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