ninja33

That is what most people are arguing with me. I wouldn't keep pushing the obvious facts if they weren't. Not a contender in the future = Braun only big star on team long term + weak farm system (as of now) + small/mid-market payroll team. At the begining of this season the Brewers had a rotation of Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf/Narv. Even with less of a batting lineup (I.E. no Prince) they still were contenders in a weak division with their strong rotation. The bullpen however single handedly took them out of contention. Next year, the Brewer rotation will not even have a true ace in it. MLB is a pitchers league now. Combine a average rotation with a average batting lineup and I don't see how they contend now or anytime soon. Yes, but the argument is about what the rotation would look like IF greinke resigned (I agree, that's a gigantic if). There would be an ace there (him), and the rotation would be very similar to this year and last years. Offense would be similar, and then fix the bullpen. There, contenders like they could have been this year.

But really, for the most part no one disagrees with the fact that Greinke will take a lot of money elsewhere. There's a very very strong chance of that, and we all agree. I know I don't expect him to take some kind of hometown discount. What people do disagree with is you saying they're not a contender in the future, completely contradicting yourself from about a week ago when you said they were an average bullpen away from leading the division.

Cliff Lee. He got about the same yearly salary, but he left "max $$" on the table by going a year shorter. Which would be pretty similar to the difference in what the Brewers reportedly offered Greinke and what Hamels got (and I don't think Hamels sets a new bar for Greinke in the offseason, that's just another example of Ruben Amaro being dumb and throwing money around). It's likely the Brewers offer is in the 5 yr/$110M range, and in FA Greinke gets a 6 year deal in the $130-135M range. Same idea as Lee.

I don't think it's part of some grand plan to get the Brewers talent. I think it's about Greinke being a guy who wants to be comfortable/win, and the best way to find his ideal situation is to be available to every team in free agency. It's more than likely that his ideal situation will end up coming with about $20M more than the situation in Milwaukee and that's where he'll end up. But he's not going to cross Milwaukee off of the list after he gets traded. If his best offers are in the same general ballpark (again, I agree that's not very likely), I think what many are saying is then there's a pretty good chance he comes back.

If he were back next years rotation would probably be Greinke Gallardo Richards/Perez/Feliz/someone Greinke got traded for Fiers Estrada/Thornburg/Peralta That's not that different, and there's also a chance Marcum comes back on a one year deal/accepts the qualifying offer and slots in ahead of the guy Greinke gets traded for.

Those are my exact words. This years rotation: Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf/Narv Narv and Marcum hurt, sub in Estrada and Fiers and rotation still is good shape. Next year, no Greinke, no Marcum (arguably) = not looking good to contend. Bring back Marcum, still not looking good. Yes, but the ENTIRE POINT OF THIS ARGUMENT is about Greinke coming back next year, and the situation the team would be in if he did. So you can't say "no Greinke".

Sounds like they're not that far away. your words, not mine.

I mean, you're the guy who said the bullpen "single handedly cost the team the season", which implied with a league average bullpen the brewers would be winning the division (i believe those are your words in there). Bullpens can be a crapshoot, and are also not that difficult or expensive to fix in the offseason. so why can't they be contenders with Greinke back? Again, I don't expect him back. But saying it's because the Brewers can't be contenders is something I disagree with.

why don't the brewers look anything like contenders in the near future? They have a lot of the same talent they won the division with last year (sans prince, and the offense hasn't tailed off very much) IF, a very big if, Greinke came back. It's not like it's unheard of for a team to win something like 77 games and come back the next year and win the division. I swear it happened recently......

And that's a lock guys i get it.

I'm certainly not expecting it, but I think it is within the realm of possibility. Assuming that 5 year/$112M offer was true, Greinke knows where the Brewers stand. There's a very good chance someone blows it out of the water in FA (Hamels type deal, something for 6 years) and it's a moot point. But if the best offer comes out in the $120-125M range, maybe Greinke decides he really does love Milwaukee. It's hard to make that decision before you see all of your options. I doubt he would do that, but I don't think it's impossible. And I don't think wanting to play for a winner will have anything to do with it. Greinke almost went to a world series with the Brewers. In order to be a world series contender, you merely need to be a playoff contender....once you're in it's a whole new season (see: the stupid cardinals of the past decade). This team isn't THAT different than last years, except the bullpen has turned into a dumpster fire. More often than not bullpens are a crapshoot from year to year. I don't agree with the "it cost us the season" mentality, because there are some other flaws (most teams have them)....but with an average bullpen I do think the team is around .500 and close to a wildcard. We can disagree about what the wildcard means now....but either way Greinke has seen success in Milwaukee and knows that Melvin and Attanasio are going to do what it takes (or attempt to) to make the team a winner. Their approach is a whole other argument that comes up in every thread ever, so that's not the point. But the Brewers are a team with major league talent that has seen success....Greinke wouldn't be coming into some rebuilding project after he got 9 figures. All of that said, I fully expect Zack to get $140Mish somewhere, and will not hold it against him at all when he goes there. I just hope the return we get for him (I'm thinking it happens today) is as good as it should be.

It is very GM's and Owner's MO to completely rebuild. What teams have really done this? The Astros are currently doing it and Oakland has kind of done it. Have we seen the complete rebuild work well? I am asking because I just dont know. If I were Braun there is no way I would want to waste my prime on a team that doesnt have any hope at all. The prospects for Gallardo would have to be really close to the majors not A ball guys i think tampa bay has the model people kind of look at when talking about this. but for them it was much more of a "finally build" than "rebuild".

Of players I could feasibly see coming back for just Greinke....Teheran is the best pitching prospect and olt the best hitting prospect.

He's only under contract through next year, at a cost of $13M. There is zero chance he's part of a deal, or at the very least he would be one of multiple pieces (and not nearly the feature one).

most likely.

Rodriguez is a very reliable, consistent arm. But he's 33 and his strikeout rates are declining. He's also owed probably close to $20M through next year (rest of this year, $13M, and a $2.5M buyout), which is why the Astros were eager to move him. But he should help out Pittsburgh this year (and there's some amount of money coming their way as well), so I think it's a good deal for both sides. I don't know a ton about the other guys, but Owens could develop into a pretty decent back of the rotation starter.

There's 4 days until Greinke's next scheduled start. I think that Melvin has already spoken to teams, so I would agree that there's a very good chance he's dealt as soon as tomorrow. But there's still a few days to try and get teams into a bidding war to make sure you're getting the best offer possible. Finding the right balance between maximizing the offer and having teams not go "screw it, we'll just trade for Dempster instead". It could still be a few days, but I think everyone can agree that was Zack's last start in a Brewer uniform (this season)

The @Pirates have acquired LHP Wandy Rodriguez & cash from the #Astros for Rudy Owens, Colton Cain & Robbie Grossman. No word on the amount of cash yet. All three of those guys were top 20 prospects in pittsburgh's system, but Owens is really the only one having a decent season. Seems like a move to get out from underneath the contract (even if they're paying a portion of it) and get some organizational depth.

Yes, he will say that. Big deal, anyone and everyone knows the real reason is because the team knows they're trading greinke and didn't want him to get injured or blow up in the 8th.

last outing til he comes back in the offseasoon! right? right? please?

arguably the worst baserunning mistake by a brewer this year. and there's been a lot of those.

velocity looks good, which is probably most important from a health standpoint. Obviously I hope he can go 8 innings and keep it at 1 run. But if he's throwing 92-93 and goes 6 IP 3 ER (or even a little worse, so long as he doesn't get blown up) everything will be just fine.

the deferred money is for his 2014 salary. So he is owed $16M in 2014, he will receive $10M in 2014 and the other $6M later on (don't know the exact years). So yes, if Ramirez is still a Brewer in 2014 only $10M will be part of that years payroll (same as in 2013) so there is more payroll flexibility. But after that they will still owe him $10M (deferred money plus $4M buyout). 3 years/$36M (2012-14), plus 2015 mutual option signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 12/13/11 12:$6M, 13:$10M, 14:$16M, 15: mutual option ($4M buyout) $6M in salary deferred in 2014

does bill sound weird to anyone else, or is it just my TV? It sounds like he's on skype and they put a microphone next to a computer speaker.

Actually it's just the opposite. I have more faith in the Brewers scouting system to find guys than I do in some ranking by a magazine. Go to the 'Trade Rumors' board, and find me something for Greinke with a non 100 prospect(s). Many people here are too carried away with this list, that's all that I'm saying. I'd rather have the Brewers make a move for some unknown 19 or 20 year olds who may make 'the list' in a few years than take some guy who has already been on the list and hasn't performed in the majors, causing his current team to deem him as expendable. I get that, but by saying this you're pretty strongly implying that the brewers wouldn't have scouted the player on "the list" or who has been in the majors. They're going to scout everyone and take back what they think is the best package. I agree in the respect that I want the Brewers to get the best possible package. If that is three guys in A ball, then so be it. and a lot of guys on top 100 lists are in AA or lower and still a few years away from making the majors. It's not just guys who couldn't perform (as 22 year olds) and were deemed expendable. Anyone traded has been deemed expendable, so I don't know how much sense that makes. I understand that you think that trading for a top prospect is still a crapshoot, no matter what any list says. I agree with that, as well as the notion that prospects tend to be overvalued a lot. I just think that the draft or unknown 19 year olds are a much much bigger crapshoot, so when you're in a situation where you need to trade a guy like Greinke shooting for a top ranked prospect is the best route.