SoCal Brew Crew Fan

Gerut seemed to check out when he got hurt. Too bad, always seemed like a decent guy. That Stanford education will come in handy whatever he does next. That cycle game sure was fun.

If Braun keeps doing what he's doing, he could earn $20mm/year after his contract is up. That would put him very close to Tulo all in. Braun is a smart guy and knew the best case scenario for his contract would be leaving dough on the table. The guy is also a competitor...I genuinely believe he wants to win more than anything. I can't see his contract being an issue unless the Brewers start to struggle in '13 or beyond.

I'd go Metallica when he comes out, but Rock Your Baby after he finishes! Either that or a polka.

Shaun Marcum sends a message to the Giants by nailing Aubrey Huff in the ribs in the first spring training game. It worked for them last year. After the game he states "I'm rusty and the pitch just got away, but in case you are wondering we won't put up with throwing at our best players the way Gramps did the last two years."

That is honestly the farthest thing from the truth. I am guessing you are a badger fan, since that is what all UW fans believe; but that argument has no merit. Look at his counterpart at the JS who covers the Badgers, posts on UW message boards, etc. TR is not even a fan of MU in the least. Guilty as charged, although I can't speak for other Badgers fans. The only time I really read him is the UW/MU game or the Vander Blue thing when my homerism was at Defcon 1. So you may be right...I'll give him a shot. In defense of Potrykus, he only comes on the Badgers boards to tell the fans how stupid we are. He's not much of a fan either, but does a great job of reporting. I wish other reporters engaged as much as he does. You may be guilty of the same bias I have. I'm desperate out here for more Brewers coverage...I can't get enough. I hope he works out.

I feel genuinely bad for Wainwright and the Cards, but yes this does put the Brewers & Reds in the catbird seat. IMO, there are two teams in that division that will struggle to handle an injury to a top starter. Let's hope the same bad luck doesn't fall on the other team. That's one advantage the Reds have over the division. They aren't as good at the top of the rotation, but they can go deeper if they suffer injuries. The dropoff from a Greinke or Gallardo to a Rogers or Parra would be difficult to overcome.

Rosiak always seemed like a biased homer when it came to his MU coverage. It will probably bother me less covering the Brewers where I am a biased homer as well.

If TH is anti-Gamel, my guess is he's getting that from the coaching staff. They haven't had many good things to say about his attitude and work ethic.

According to fangraphs, the Brewers pitchers were .207/.249/.280/.530 last year...the top hitting group in the NL. The Cardinals were ranked 8th at .140/.175/.185/.360. A .170 OPS advantage out of the nine hitter for 2/3 of the at bats there seems like a nice advantage. Am I reading it right that it's worth 2.2 wins vs. the median Cards? Not bad and they might be even better this year.

There is an app for wtmj that let's you listen to their station, but it turns off during sports events. "tunein" may allow you to listen, but it isn't supposed to due to the licensing arrangements.

Terrific deal. Hats off to Warning Track Power on getting the 5/50 number right. I thought it would cost more. Glad I was wrong.

WTP - If you have an iPhone...get the MLB at-bat app. They probably have one for Android too. Not as reliable with the coverage as XM, but it's not that expensive and you can get 162 games of Uecker/Cory...with no Milo! The internet subscription isn't bad for home/office either.

Good. Whenever they are on I can't get the games in LA, unless Fox Desportes has it on.

Direct link seems to be working now. http://www.baseballprospe...tatistics/ps_oddspec.php

BP had this on their site, but now the link doesn't work so I just copied it. Feel free to delete it if a better link comes on. Early read has the Crew on top... http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2011/2/15/1995826/projecting-yankees-to-miss-playoffs<font face="courier"><p>Generated Sun Feb 13 10:18:48 EST 2011 </p>[hr][pre]Average wins by position in AL East: 96.9 89.0 83.5 78.1 71.0 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/aleastpec.png]AL East[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/RedSoxpsoddspec.php]Red Sox[/url] 0 0 .580 92.6 69.4 53.25499 15.17171 68.42670 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Devilpsoddspec.php]Rays[/url] 0 0 .538 84.6 77.4 17.90253 15.05362 32.95615 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Yankeespsoddspec.php]Yankees[/url] 0 0 .531 83.2 78.8 14.32638 12.82743 27.15381 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Bluepsoddspec.php]Blue Jays[/url] 0 0 .514 80.5 81.5 9.10840 9.34078 18.44918 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Oriolespsoddspec.php]Orioles[/url] 0 0 .497 77.6 84.4 5.40770 6.03210 11.43980 Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.5 85.3 79.7 74.0 66.6 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/alcentpec.png]AL Central[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Twinspsoddspec.php]Twins[/url] 0 0 .537 86.0 76.0 39.57293 7.05805 46.63097 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Tigerspsoddspec.php]Tigers[/url] 0 0 .517 82.6 79.4 24.86493 6.41937 31.28430 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Whitepsoddspec.php]White Sox[/url] 0 0 .517 82.6 79.4 24.77224 6.37997 31.15221 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Royalspsoddspec.php]Royals[/url] 0 0 .467 73.7 88.3 5.66006 1.82920 7.48926 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Indianspsoddspec.php]Indians[/url] 0 0 .465 73.2 88.8 5.12985 1.68899 6.81883 Average wins by position in AL west: 91.7 84.1 78.0 70.6 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/alwestpec.png]AL West[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Rangerspsoddspec.php]Rangers[/url] 0 0 .536 85.5 76.5 42.17781 5.65521 47.83302 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Athleticspsoddspec.php]Athletics[/url] 0 0 .520 82.4 79.6 27.80458 5.44458 33.24915 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Angelspsoddspec.php]Angels[/url] 0 0 .501 79.2 82.8 17.20348 3.97244 21.17592 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Marinerspsoddspec.php]Mariners[/url] 0 0 .491 77.3 84.7 12.81414 3.12657 15.94071 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.0 Average wins by position in NL East: 93.3 86.3 81.0 75.8 68.7 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/nleastpec.png]NL East[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Philliespsoddspec.php]Phillies[/url] 0 0 .524 86.8 75.2 39.64958 8.42560 48.07518 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Bravespsoddspec.php]Braves[/url] 0 0 .501 82.9 79.1 23.05570 7.45482 30.51052 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Marlinspsoddspec.php]Marlins[/url] 0 0 .496 81.9 80.1 19.76556 6.78316 26.54871 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Metspsoddspec.php]Mets[/url] 0 0 .477 78.5 83.5 11.45670 4.49430 15.95100 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Nationalspsoddspec.php]Nationals[/url] 0 0 .454 74.9 87.1 6.07247 2.53004 8.60250 Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.3 86.8 82.0 77.5 72.4 64.9 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/nlcentpec.png]NL Central[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Brewerspsoddspec.php]Brewers[/url] 0 0 .516 85.5 76.5 32.13464 8.65007 40.78471 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Cardinalspsoddspec.php]Cardinals[/url] 0 0 .499 83.2 78.8 23.13852 7.72443 30.86295 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Redspsoddspec.php]Reds[/url] 0 0 .496 82.7 79.3 21.47737 7.50139 28.97876 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Cubspsoddspec.php]Cubs[/url] 0 0 .485 80.5 81.5 15.16335 5.92916 21.09251 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Piratespsoddspec.php]Pirates[/url] 0 0 .455 75.7 86.3 6.43399 2.98030 9.41429 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Astrospsoddspec.php]Astros[/url] 0 0 .422 69.3 92.7 1.65213 .81340 2.46553 Average wins by position in NL West: 94.1 87.0 81.6 76.0 68.3 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/nlwestpec.png]NL West[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Rockiespsoddspec.php]Rockies[/url] 0 0 .523 87.1 74.9 36.91618 10.61655 47.53272 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Dodgerspsoddspec.php]Dodgers[/url] 0 0 .512 85.0 77.0 27.57145 10.10748 37.67893 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Giantspsoddspec.php]Giants[/url] 0 0 .504 83.5 78.5 22.32625 9.10901 31.43526 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Diamondbackspsoddspec.php]Diamondbacks[/url] 0 0 .474 78.3 83.7 9.57135 4.90836 14.47971 [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Padrespsoddspec.php]Padres[/url] 0 0 .446 73.1 88.9 3.61476 1.97196 5.58672 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.8[/pre]

Sounds like they are close...good news. So what's the over/under on years and $$$? I'll try and set the line here... Time - 5 years (one arby + 4 FA) Dough - $55mm? Somewhere between the 50-60mm levels we've seen on the board. My guess is 5 years + an option year. The dough is $54mm ($6 for the arby year and $13/yr over the remainder) and a shot at $60mm with incentives. $15mm mutual option. Not sure if that's over or under? I'll say over due to the incentives.

I'll echo a few of the previous posters: Breakout - Carlos Gomez. I think the threat from Cain and his brief demotion resonated with Carlos to try and be a better player. He was rushed to the majors before he was ready, but still seems like a hard worker with a ton of talent. A little plate discipline would go a long way...I think he does it this year and is a very solid player. At a minimum, he will be a solid glove in center. My bold prediction...I could see him leading off before year end, allowing them to move Rickie to #2. Breakdown - Betancourt - Not a bold call here since expectations are so low, but he is bad and beyond repair. I also worry that Counsell breaks down from playing too much after they realize this. I'm sure we'll see a couple injuries to the pitching this year which will be a challenge to overcome with a lack of depth.

WTP, it seems a lot of people here think players deserve a lot more than I think they deserve. I'm not sure this is the case. If you are referring to my skepticism, it's not that I think they deserve more, it's that the market will probably bear more. It only takes one team to "overpay". Given the Uggla deal, I just think Rickie and his new agent will want that 5 year/60+ type deal. If he stays healthy and has another year like 2010, he can probably get it. Would I pay that much? Not sure...I really like Rickie, but that's a rich deal. My guess is that's why they haven't signed one yet. it's important to lock people up when they still have several "cheap" years of control. I agree with this...that's the philosophy behind the Braun extension. Eventually one of these guys can get hurt and not pan out, but the philosophy is sound. I just think Weeks, Marcum and Greinke are too close to the big payday to get a discount in either dollars or years.

IMO, they won't get any of those three at those prices. The Uggla deal puts Rickie's price higher. Greinke won't sign anything until he sees how it goes here...if he has the year he's capable of, he's looking at Sabathia type money when his contract is up. Marcum could sign away a couple years of FA at an imputed $15mm per like you have there, but he probably wants a longer deal. Just my opinion, but I don't think we're going to get any hometown discounts.

Thanks Blancofan1...that gave me goosebumps!!!

Nice trade for Cubs. That's a surprising haul for Gorzellany. I didn't like the Garza trade for them since they should be playing for 2013, but combined with this one it's not as bad for them. The Nats are delusional.

How about a first pitch where he trots in from the bullpen to Hell's Bells one last time...that would get the crowd fired up. Wish the beginning of last year went a little better, but overall it was great having that guy in a Brewers uni the last 2 seasons. Very memorable.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/pirates-sign-jorge-julio.html He brings back such good memories for Brewers fans. I guess when a career in baseball no longer looks viable, there's always the Pirates. The early hatred of Betancourt doesn't hold a candle to my feelings for this clown!

I would vote for Augie!!! Enough of this blaspheming my all-time favorite Brewer!!! I admit to being biased and irrational, but I will not be convinced otherwise. I may start my own Walk of Fame on my sidewalk just for him. They should get a couple more of those old Braves in while they are still around. That team was packed with great players and should be honored more than they are. 13 straight winning seasons, 2 pennants, 2 other near misses and Milwaukee's only WS crown. Just incredible. Adcock & Logan for sure. I like the thought on Al Simmons too.

If I'm the Cubs I kind of get it, but don't. I like Garza and was hoping the Brewers could pull off a trade for him...before we got Greinke which is much better. It does make the Cubs better...probably from .500 to slightly under to .500 to slightly over...still projected #4 in division, but they closed the gap with #3. That's a slight hit to the top 3 in the division. If I'm the Cubs, I'm playing for 2013. Garza will still be there and they could extend him...that's a plus, but they could pull a trade like this off in 2 years when they are really poised to take off. Seems they gave up a little too much just to hang in there for a couple years. The mid-decade Cubs scare me...but if they make a couple more moves like this while they unwind their bad, old contracts...they could really clip some of their mid-decade upside. Wouldn't do it if I were them, but they've never been particularly forward-thinking in their moves.