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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    June of 2007 we won 2 of 3 vs them in Minn. 2005 we won 2 of 3 against them in Mil. Twins aren't really a small market team either, they have been a slightly below average payroll team for much of the past 10 years but not because of the market, in fact this year they have the 13th highest payroll in baseball and that number will likely go up with the new stadium so they completely lose any suggestion of being small market in any way at this point. The most successful small market team in baseball is almost certainly the Rays right now and probably the Marlins over the past 10 years.
  2. Ennder
    Gomez is hitting better than he has for his career, it just isn't showing up because of BABIP. He is never going to be a great hitter most likely though. If he can combine last years BB% with his improved K% and ISO from this year maybe he can be an everyday player because of his defense but that is about the upside most likely at this point.
  3. Ennder
    He has been almost a 1 WAR player in a part time role so far this year, I don't care one way or the other about him but it isn't like he has been hurting the team in his role either.
  4. Ennder
    Yep I'm sure there are. Of course Rockies players are probably smart enough to realize the Brewers are closer to .500 in talent and shouldn't be an easy win every time out, the fans generally are pretty clueless and buy into W/L records like they mean a lot..
  5. Ennder
    Which most likely is just random fluctuation given the sample size and his career rates considering his high and low leverage stats are almost identical over the career. He wasn't getting the job done because of the randomness of baseball, had nothing to do with Cameron at all.
  6. Ennder
    I don't think that is very fair. Looking at the players we have signed or traded for they have all been at least somewhat defensive minded in recent years. We drafted a few poor defensive guys and a few guys that there was no good reason to expect to be terrible defensively ended up being very bad (Hart as an example, McGehee was supposed to be a defensive 3B when we grabbed him etc). I think they place value on fielding, they just don't have good fielders at the moment and there isn't a lot they can do about it.
  7. Ennder
    Year to year production is just incredibly random, people get way too hung up on a single year performance, especially when it comes to ERA which is just not a useful stat over 200 innings. Wins and Losses are also incredibly random over a single season. I don't think anyone thinks this is a 90 win team but an 83 win team can easily play like the Brewers have over the past 162 games.
  8. Ennder
    The cardinals have a 1.8 UZR/150 so far on the year which is slightly above average, the Brewers a -10.7 good for 2nd worst in baseball. A lot of the pitching issues for the Brewers are due to the defense, not the quality of our pitchers. A guy like Gallardo who strikes a lot of guys out can live with a bad defense, guys like Suppan just can't. He isn't going to be good no matter where he plays but it won't surprise me at all if he puts up a 5 ERA for the Cardinals.
  9. Ennder
    Just looks like a slump to me, he is swinging at tons of bad pitches, not hitting good pitches poorly.
  10. Ennder
    With a realistic defense behind him he is a 5 ERA pitcher, nothing amazing but hardly as bad as most Brewer fans think he is.
  11. Ennder
    Doug Davis has a career xFIP of 4.43 and his 3 year average isn't much worse. Randy Wolf has a career xFIP of 4.30 and his 3 year average is about the same. Suppan was a clear case of a mistake signing though and I can certainly see not liking the 3rd year of Wolf's contract. These guys aren't borderline players, they are right around average players. There is a big difference. Sometimes an old average player does well, sometimes poorly. Most of the complaints with these signings is backseat driving, there was no reason to expect them to tank but we have just been unlucky with their results.
  12. Ennder
    To put it another way, if every single team in baseball had exactly 81 win talent you would probably still see at least one team win 72 games and at least 1 team win 90 games. There is no perfect way to pin down how much of their record is variance obviously. I think the Brewers are a better team than their record, I still don't think they are a playoff caliber team though.
  13. Ennder
    Looking at pitching peripherals some of it is almost certainly bad luck. The defense is bad but even with that a .344 BABIP is just ridiculously high, especially given how many of the guys are FB pitchers. Variance or luck or whatever you want to call it accounts for at least 10% of the leagues wins and losses so hard to just look a teams record and say what they are. If the Brewers are an 81 win true talent team they can easily win 72 games or win 90 games while playing to their talent. We have reduced the load of our weakest pitchers on the year as well which should theoretically help. Stetter, Hoffman, Bush, Suppan, Estrada and Wolf all have xFIP over 5. Given his history I'd expect Wolf to improve and most of the rest of those pitchers aren't throwing many innings anymore.
  14. Ennder
    We are still in the process of the first rebuild, you don't just draft a few guys and say you are done with. Rebuilding a terrible franchise is a 10-15 year process, we aren't even at 10 years yet.
  15. Ennder
    Well the error is a completely useless stat that should just be abolished so yeah they really don't matter much when comparing players. Corey Hart loses a ball in the lights and it is a double, Weeks overthrows first on a double play and the runs scoring afterwords count as earned runs. A ball is hit hard to McGehee's left and his poor range causes him to miss it and they are earned runs. Errors don't come close to accounting for defense.
  16. Ennder
    He is good enough, he obviously hasn't recovered from the injury though as his peripherals are completely out of whack with his history. Two very different statements.
  17. Ennder
    You mean look what happens when your team brings up a bunch of young upside starters? Btw the Rangers are an average rotation so far this year even with that talent. They have the 10th best rotation in the AL and a 4.58 ERA from their starters.
  18. Ennder
    Wolf should be expected to have a true ERA around 4.25. He has a career ERA of 4.17 and his 3 year peripherals match his career peripherals or are a little bit better than them. Now playing with such a bad defense behind him might turn that into a 4.50 ERA but that is another problem altogether.
  19. Ennder
    Overpaid - Suppan, Hoffman, Hawkins, Hall and maybe Riske Underpaid - nobody Someone getting hurt doesn't make them overpaid in my mind and someone being pre-arby doesn't make them underpaid. I think Riske was probably overpaid even when we signed him so added him even though he is hurt. Davis and Wolf pretty much got exactly what they have been worth over the last couple years so hard to add them to the list even though they got off to bad starts. I'm not a big fan of the 3rd year for Wolf though.
  20. Ennder
    I don't know if it was the back injury he tried to pitch through in 2009 or the broken thumb on his pitching hand in 2007 or the various shoulder problems from 2003, 2004 and 2005. But when you can bring up 5 different years where he was hurt in a 7 year period it is hard to say that a pitchers career hasn't suffered for it..
  21. Ennder
    I have to see him keep it up a full season to be a believer. When Jose Bautista can hit 18 HR by June 5th anything can happen. I don't believe Bautista will sustain it and I'm not sure this is more than a hot streak for Hart. I definitely want to trade him if we get the chance though because I don't think he is a long term solution given his defense and this is the perfect sell high candidate.
  22. Ennder
    Sad how injuries can derail a career. Parra really hasn't looked the same as he did in the minors since his injuries.
  23. Ennder
    The only chance he's really had to make this move was the package that brought in Sabathia. Nobody wanted to trade pitching for Hardy or Hart and we haven't really had another trade chip since the team is still in the middle of rebuilding. I don't disagree with you that the problem is with the pitching, I just think your expectations of how to acquire that pitching are off.
  24. Ennder
    Only if you are a slave to ER. Bush has had 1 good start all year and almost every other start has been mediocre or bad. He has had more K than BB in only 2 of his last 9 games and those were 4 K, 3 BB and 3 K, 2 BB. He also has only had a good GB/FB ratio in 2 starts all year If you take it back a step farther to when he got hurt last year he has had like 3 good starts in that entire time frame. It is hard for me to be bothered by this move.
  25. Ennder
    We aren't anywhere near late enough in the season to rule out small sample sizes. Looking at the past 3 years still tells more about a player than anything he has done this year. Having said that I think there is probably a systemic issue at play given how many BBs the team has given up. Every new pitcher we have seems to increase their BB when they come to the team as well. Jeff Suppan is the only pitcher on the entire brewer team that has a BB/9 under 3.5, that is just crazy. It might be an issue caused by the poor defense, it might be a game planning issue. I don't know.
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