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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Honestly if you think they are out of it you haven't paid much attention to baseball over the last 10 years. I don't like their chances much but a .500 team getting hot for 5 weeks and getting into the race or making the playoffs happens pretty much every single season. No reason we can't be that team or any of the other teams sitting around .500 right now.
  2. Ennder
    Brewers have a 32% productive out percentage on the year. The league average is 32% and only 6 teams in the NL have over 33%. I don't think productive outs are a major cause of the team losing. They are well above average scoring runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs and a little below average at advancing runners to 3rd from 2nd with no outs. One interesting stat is they are dead last in the NL at gaining the platoon advantage. 59% of their PA have come without the platoon advantage compared to 45% league average. The Mets have had only 36% of their PA come without the advantage. The lack of SH and LH bats is probably what is hurting the offense more than anything else. Finally we have had the worst pinch hitting in all of the NL as well which can't help.
  3. Ennder
    Yes we are still in it, this team is every bit as good as say the 2007 Rockies who got hot and made the playoffs when they shouldn't have. The fact that so many teams are 4+ games ahead of us now makes us pretty significant underdogs though. All it really takes is a .500 team having a hot month to push them into the playoffs from this point on though.
  4. Ennder
    I'm a bit confused, we had gone 1-1 since the Dodger series when this trade went down. Going 2-0 would have made that much of a difference or even 2-1 rather than 1-2 if you want to include tonights game? Now if you meant the series at Miller Park I could agree with you some. I really expected us to make a move after that one but we just fell flat against a lot of bad teams.
  5. Ennder
    No it isn't, but this argument never goes anywhere so I'll just leave it as an agree to disagree.
  6. Ennder
    This is highly debateable and really depends on which stats you prefer. While Looper may be the worst of these 3 pitchers it most likely isn't by very much, certainly not enough to pay double for one of them. Looper has an xFIP of 4.78 on the year and generally has one in the 4.60-5.00 range. Marquis has an xFIP of 4.44 on the year and generally has one in the 4.40-5.00 range. Pineiro has an xFIP of 3.80 on the year and generally has one in the 4.30-5.00 range. The biggest downfall of Looper in this specific comparison is probably just age and the fact he used to be a reliever so we can't be sure his arm holds up.
  7. Ennder
    Of course we don't, but then again no sport does. There are teams who are always terrible in every sport, even the ones with caps. They could do more to limit the top few teams and help the bottom few teams but the middle 20-25 teams are pretty balanced. It is still a work in progress but they are moving in the right direction overall.
  8. Ennder
    Would be nice but it seems like this is the Cubs lucky year as every scrub they call up produces even though they have more or less no upside other than Fox.
  9. Ennder
    HR are as random as ERA, if you are going to just ignore HR/FB normalization you might as well just look at ERA instead of any other stat and both were just fine by ERA. Guess it depends on what stat you want to use, I think RAR and FIP are pretty flawed in general with pitchers. Looper has produced the xFIP and ERA that was expected out of him, he went about it by being lucky in one area and unlucky in another but the end result is just about what was expected.
  10. Ennder
    I'm a bit confused by which 3 you are talking about. Before his injury Suppan had a sub 4.50 ERA going and Looper is under 5. We have had one really bad starter and that is Parra and when we sent him down there was nobody to replace him with which is what I'm talking about with the depth issues. Looper has a 4.78 xFIP which is right where you would expect. Suppan is at a 5.26 xFIP after his two terrible starts and before that it was under 5. These guys were doing just fine outside of the injuries and having no depth. They were right around expectations which were 4.50-5.00 ERA back of the rotation type guys.
  11. Ennder
    I would say the lesson that was learned from this season is that pitching depth is vital for success. The problem has really been that we have no depth at all more than anything else. It is pretty rare to be lucky enough for your entire rotation to stay healthy a full season and when we had to go to the minors to replace things there was just nothing of value there. We need to get pitching at the AAA level and I don't think we are going to have it next season without making a few trades.
  12. Ennder
    Hardy has put up $7M worth of value so far this season because he is good defensively so I don't think we 'have' to trade him, especially since he was a top 5 SS last season. It might be harder to trade him coming off the bad season though so we might be looking at keeping him another year, probably depends on how the rest of the season ends up. The lack of power this season is what bothers me the most with him and the fact he changed his stance which might be messing up his swing in general. The really strange thing is he is hitting righties just like always but has been just terrible against lefties this season. He has a .514 OPS on the year vs lefties and for a career it is .881.
  13. Ennder
    I'd think build around OBP rather than slugging, but baseball is going to be streaky no matter what you do.
  14. Ennder
    Only the last 2 starts really though. Suppan was fine as a #5 until 2 starts ago. Looper has given up more HR than you'd expect for his FB but other than that he is exactly what was expected with a 4.83 xFIP vs a 4.59 last year and a 4.93 the year before. It is really Parra and the injuries that have derailed the pitching more than anything.
  15. Ennder
    At this point I'd rather see them trade Hardy or Hart for some pitching prospects than pick up some mediocre guy.
  16. Ennder
    It is just you I think. Looks like the Indians wanted major league ready pitching for next season and we don't exactly have any of that. I think they are pretty set on position players in general so it really was looking to turn Lee into a pitcher or two with more service time remaining.
  17. Ennder
    I was screaming at the TV telling them to take him out after 3. It was just so predictable that he would struggle in the 4th given how stretched out he was. As for CV, I don't think he'll ever be a good starter. The combination of flyball pitcher and walks too many just isn't a good recipe.
  18. Ennder
    Let's just keep in mind that Washburn is a rental who has a significant salary so he is not an expensive trade piece at all and that Clement is a 'catcher' who can hit but hasn't hit at the major league level and who is terrible defensively and likely won't stick at C which means mediocre future 1B. This is a very cheap package as is suggested by the Jed Lowrie rumor. This is not a pair of players that should suggest multiple good prospects at all.
  19. Ennder
    Clement left his minor league game today for non injury reasons. Maybe Hardy for Clement+Washburn?
  20. Ennder
    To be fair the age 25 OPS was while protecting him against RHP and was heavily BABIP driven and the age 26 OPS had an unsustainable spike in HR/FB%. If you had asked me what to expect out of Hall I would have predicted an OPS of .800 as a cap most likely given his peripherals. I didn't expect him to put in the .700 or whatever he has so far since then though.
  21. Ennder
    We haven't exactly had excess talent sitting around pre-season except for LaPorta so I find it hard to believe you know what Melvin will or will not do. Going into 2007 we had plenty of pitching depth, going into 2008 we had a solid looking rotation and an extra part to trade for a replacement if needed. Going into 2009 we had a shaky rotation with absolutely no depth but the only extra pieces we had were Hardy's replacement and our future 3B. The one argument I can get behind is that we should have maybe traded Hardy for a SP before the season started but even then I'm not sure Escobar was ready yet. I would expect to see Hardy moved this off season for a pitcher personally, hopefully he gets hot at some point so we can get a better pitcher.
  22. Ennder
    You need at least 400 IP for ERA to really be a meaningful stat and even then it is shaky, probably why people think 43 innings can be misleading.
  23. Ennder
    To be fair Beane knows that his home park makes pitchers look a lot better than they are and the A's have always focused on defense which makes them look even better. He also has shown a pattern of abusing his pitchers and then trading them before they break down. Beane is leveraging his park/division into good trades most of the time, we don't exactly have that luxury.
  24. Ennder
    The Jays would have laughed at us if we asked for Marcum for Overbay though. We got a good deal by getting Bush as it is, there is no way we get their better prospects for a mediocre 1B. Then he shouldn't include Doug Davis. Bush and Capuano are as good or better than Davis is. Bush has the same career ERA at a younger age and Capuano's was better. Both had better peripherals than him going into this year at least. It really comes down to the Suppan debacle for me as well as the complete lack of prospects in AAA atm. If we had signed say Ted Lilly instead of Suppan I wouldn't be bothered by our rotation going into the season the past 3 years. In 2007 we would have gone into the year with Sheets, Capuano, Lilly, Bush and Vargas with Gallardo and Villanueva for depth. In 2008 we would have had Sheets, Gallardo, Lilly, Bush, Parra with basically no depth In 2009 we would have had Gallardo, Lilly, Bush, Looper, Parra with basically no depth. The biggest issue with those 2008/2009 rotations is just no depth down at AAA to replace injuries. The fact we spent so much cash on a #4/#5 starter means we don't have a #2/#3 and the fact we haven't brought up any good young prospects other than Gallardo means we have been lacking a #1/#2. Injuries have taken a significant toll on each of those rotations as well and the lack of depth has been a big issue. You can't really have depth at the major league level for pitching, it comes from prospects in the minors.
  25. Ennder
    To take it a step further I don't think you can really blame the rotation just on Melvin. We have had problems keeping prospects healthy more than anything and just haven't developed many pitchers. People tend to give Melvin none of the credit for drafting our hitters and then blame him for the lack of pitching prospects. We do not have the type of team that can buy a rotation so when you have Capuano and Sheets go down over the years and then Bush this year and fail to bring many pitchers up through the minors it really hurts. Some of that is Melvin's fault but a lot of it isn't.
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