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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    How about this JohnBriggs. If Cameron had the same OBP and SLG and was the same in the field but he hit .290 and only struck out like 80 times a year would you want to pick up the option? Because the difference between that and what he really does is miniscule but I get the feeling you'd be ok with it then.
  2. Ennder
    Penny had a lucky 2007 more than anything. His strike outs were down, his BB's were up with a slight gain in GB% that offset some of it. He just happened to not give up HRs that year which given his career rates is most likely just a statistical fluke. Penny isn't a bad pitcher but as was already mentioned the only way he becomes a FA is if his health is in serious question.
  3. Ennder
    So if Sheets had missed all of 2005 and been healthy in 2006 it would be different? I mean because one injury bridged two seasons it makes him more injury prone? With Beckett being younger is a disadvantage not an advantage. Very few pitchers make it through a lot of injury issues at a young age and go on to pitch full seasons, it is usually a sign that their arm can't handle the load. Sheets has proven his can handle it, he's just had some injuries like almost every pitcher does. Heck most of the time he missed in 2005 wasn't even to an injury, it was to an illness.
  4. Ennder
    It is rare that I find a post I disagree with so completely that I'm left speechless on this site JohnBriggs, we'll have to just agree to disagree. Cameron said that because he didn't think we'd have the money, not because he isn't worth it. He'd get more than that for the Yankees for sure. The extent of your dislike of strike outs is just mind boggling at times.
  5. Ennder
    Curt Schilling - http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schilcu01.shtml Josh Beckett - http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beckejo02.shtml A.J. Burnett - http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burnea.01.shtml (assuming he pitches 180 innings next year of course) Roy Halladay - http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hallaro01.shtml Andy Pettitte - http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pettian01.shtml Randy Johnson - http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml Just looking at any pitcher who has been in the league 10+ years it is harder to find one that didn't have a 3 year stretch of 150 IP/year than one that did have it. Almost every pitcher goes through it at some point these days. Almost every pitch is max effort now, you don't have pitchers who go out there and just toss it in and let them hit it because the lineups are just too strong now. It is also much harder to live off a fast ball and change up so everyone throws pitches that are harder on their arms.
  6. Ennder
    Well the only 'holes' to fill are really 3B, 1 SP and a couple bullpen spots so not like we need a major overhaul or anything. It really comes down to the money, Dempster was the product of the Cubs defense and a prolonged hot streak imo. I still think it is more likely he is a 4+ ERA pitcher next year than a repeat of what he gave this year.
  7. Ennder
    Unfortunately most of them don't think he was worth $10M in the first place. A lot of people think that cameron was a bad player last year for some odd reason. I have no big issue with someone saying they'd rather spend the $10M elsewhere though personally I think we have no other options at CF that comes close to being viable(Gwynn/Kapler would be a disaster as an example, no way in heck we can spend $10M elsewhere and make up for that train wreck).
  8. Ennder
    I'd disagree with that simply because of the nature of the injuries. He had one major injury that bridged two seasons and cost the majority of those innings. I think what Russ posted is probably pretty accurate. The same way I'd take the under on Zambrano reaching 180 IP/Year from here on out even though he has been mostly heathy in his career, his arm is breaking down from all the abuse.
  9. Ennder
    That list is 90% terrible, I sure hope we don't sign any of those guys other than maybe Garcia. CV and McClung could outpitch the rest of them.
  10. Ennder
    If all of our players were suddenly 'figured out' we are screwed regardless. More likely we just had a team wide slump in September. Almost every single offensive player on our team underproduced their expected offense based on projections. That is not something that happens on a regular basis especially with a young team like we have. I feel very comfortable assuming the offense will improve even without replacing anyone. If you really need to replace someone it is Hall or Hart as they completely destroyed our offense with the rest of the team being above average pretty much (minus Kendall of course).
  11. Ennder
    Cameron isn't below average OBP though, he is roughly league average. If you want to 'fix' our OBP you trade Hall and Hart and you fix most of the problem. There is absolutely no way Cameron isn't worth $10M on the free agent market. I can't find a single site that doesn't think he is worth at least 2.5 wins over replacement. The question isn't is he worth the money because without a doubt he is, the question is could we get as much value by spending the money on other needs.
  12. Ennder
    Teix came out as the 10th best position player in baseball when Chone Smith took a look at it. http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/ The gold glove calibre defense means even if his offense slips he is still a valuable commodity. One player I'd love to sign even though I know there is no way in heck we do it.
  13. Ennder
    Atkins isn't a very good defensive 3B either coming out as the 2nd worst in baseball over the last 3 years using plus/minus. I'd rather try to trade for Beltre if we are going to trade for a 3B.
  14. Ennder
    For what it is worth Cano was worse than Weeks defensively last year according to most metrics. It might have just been an off year though but Cano came out as the worst defensive 2B in baseball according to plus/minus. Certainly makes me a bit turned off by any trades involving him.
  15. Ennder
    I don't think it is a slam dunk sure thing great move given Cameron's age and the amount of the contract. But you are really kidding yourself if you think Hall, Gwynn or Kapler would be effective full time in CF next year. All of those options would sink what chance we have at the playoffs as there is no way the $10M can be spent elsewhere to get enough to offset below average production in CF for most of the season. Now something like signing an Edmonds and platooning him with Kapler might work out. It is a bit of a gamble but an idea like that is at least plausible.
  16. Ennder
    But he is below average offensively even for a CF, is even lower OBP than cameron, still is RH with very few LH 3B out there and while he may have progressed from one of the worst fielding CF in baseball to merely bad there is no gaurentee he does better than that. Hall would be a huge downgrade from Cameron in CF, easily in the 3-4 win range. The only way it makes a little bit of sense is if we spend big on a 3B and can get 3-4 wins out of that position. Sorry but I just don't understand where you are coming from here. You dont' like Cameron because he strikes out a lot and is RH with average OBP. So you want to replace him with someone who strikes out even more, has a lower OBP and is still RH and is bad defensively on top of it. You are going to lose more games with that recipe than you can possibly make up with $10M at another position. Hall needs to be sitting on the bench as a backup or off the team at this point. If he absolutely has to play it has to be at a postion where he is above average to make up for his hitting.
  17. Ennder
    Cameron has 139 games played in RF in his career with no more than 68 of them in any given season. I sure hope you are wrong, Escobar has no business above AAA in 2009 and Hardy loses a ton of his value at 3B. I'm not sure that IF is better than the one we have no to be honest. Best bet is we dump Hall into a utility role and find a real 3B.
  18. Ennder
    The reason we missed the playoffs in 2006 more than anything else was the defense of Weeks at 2B, Fielder at 1B, Hall in CF and Braun at 3B. Those four defensively cost us about 5-7 wins over average defensive players. Bringing in Cameron last year was a 1-3 win offensive move over who he replaced, it was a 1-2 win defensive move over Hall, it was a 2-3 win defensive move pushing Braun out to LF. That one move alone accounted for roughly 3-8 wins on the season which means it probably had about as much and maybe even more to do with making the playoffs as trading for Sabathia did. Moving Hall to CF and dumping Cameron is probably a 3-4 win reduction and kills any chance we have at the playoffs unless we find a 3-4 win upgrade over Hall at 3B for $10M or under. Not sure that player exists. I am glad Melvin is smart enough to not go that route.
  19. Ennder
    Here is a link to a thread about him from a few weeks back for more insight. http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=16264
  20. Ennder
    I'd rather take my chances with Willis but I don't believe his 'old self' was all that good either. I think his skills are that of a low to mid 4 ERA pitcher and Suppan's are a mid to high 4 ERA pitcher.
  21. Ennder
    Was this supposed to be in blue? Cameron was one of the most productive players on the team last year and easily earned more than what he was payed in fact many outside sources consider him one of the best FA deals of 2007. Cameron brings above average defense(no it isn't just reputation), average OBP and above average SLG at a position where we really have no other viable options at. (Hall was terrible in CF and had negative value, Hart's defense isn't good enough for CF). At $10M and another year older he might end up only being a break even player so I could go either way on the option but I think your player evaluation methods are all messed up if you think this deal is worse than Hall's. Hall has been one of the worst players in baseball over the past 2 seasons. The more games Hall plays the worse the team is pretty much. Last year people thought we were an 85-90 win team going into the season and the only player we have lost is Sheets and now we are 75 wins tops? Tough crowd.
  22. Ennder
    I doubt the Rays trade for Fielder just to play DH and they aren't moving Pena anywhere.
  23. Ennder
    Carlos Pena gave 100% of the credit of his turnaround to the hitting coach in Tampa so at times the hitting coach most certainly can have an effect on a player. Sveum would make a better hitting coach than say I would I'm sure.
  24. Ennder
    Not a given but it is extremely unlikely that any pitcher stays healthy for 8 years in a row and given the extreme abuse CC has had on his arm the last 2 years the most likely scenario is only a 2-3 year of ace like effectiveness from this point on. A 6 year deal with a plan to trade him in 2-3 years would make some sense I guess as long as he doesn't get hurt and mess up the plan.
  25. Ennder
    Garland isn't any better than Suppan, not what we need at all.
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