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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    If Lilly played on the Brewers last year he would have had a 4.50 ERA. The Cubs were one of the better defensive teams in the NL, the Brewers one of the worst. That had more to do with the pitcher's ERA than anything else. Lilly also came at a discount because he had never made it a full 200+ inning season in his career. Suppan came with more or less no injury risk.
  2. Ennder
    Yeah the Cubs have as much mediocre depth as we do at starting pitching. They have 7 or 8 guys who could put up acceptable numbers.
  3. Ennder
    Sheets Suppan Gallardo* Villanueva Parra Bush Capuano or Vargas in the pen, other one traded. I don't think Bush would make a good RP so he needs to be in rotation. Personally I want Parra in the majors from day 1 and find a way to limit the innings, but I know it probably won't happen. At the very least I hope he fills in for Gallardo until he comes back.
  4. Ennder
    I sure hope Yost explodes at them because this game is sloppier than my son's little league games.
  5. Ennder
    Weeks and a prospect for Brian Roberts! I sure hope Weeks figures out this whole fielding thing at some point.
  6. Ennder
    I agree, but those 20-25 starts should all be in the majors, they do no good in the minors. If that means making him the #5 and skipping starts occassionally or putting him on a strict pitch count every game and carrying an extra long RP to make up for it, whatever. There are ways to limit his innings and keep him in the majors as long as you are planning for it. People are also correct that he is fragile, if you want to just play the odds most likely he'll be hurt before he reaches his innings limit. I'd rather use up those innings in the majors than the minors. At the very least he should cover for Gallardo until he comes back, then if they are completely intent of putting him in the minors he can go down when we have our #2 back.
  7. Ennder
    Parra should start the year in the majors in the rotation. You can limit his innings in the majors and still start him as long as you know about it ahead of time. The Yankees are doing the same with Hughes, the Red Sox with Buchholz etc. It will take some work and some creativity but they can do it. Every inning he throws in the minors this year is a waste of talent and when the division is likely to come down to just a couple of games again this season it could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs. I still think he starts in AAA but to me this is very different than Villanueva because of just how good a pitcher Parra is.
  8. Ennder
    Capuano hasn't been bad for a year in a half... He was bad every other month in 2006 and then from Mid May(the groin injury) on last year. Sorry but it is a pet peave to misuse splits the way people are to try to say he has struggled for a year and a half now. From all star break in 2006 through the groin injury in 2007 he pitched exactly the way you would expect Capuano to pitch, no difference at all. His struggles begain after the DL stint last year.
  9. Ennder
    Last year Kouzmanoff hit .113 with a .354 OPS in april and then hit like .295 the rest of the way. I'll be happier to see Weeks hit his groove before opening day but I don't think this somehow portends a bad year for him.
  10. Ennder
    I think SF is split finger and XX is pitches that didn't record properly?
  11. Ennder
    Wasn't really sure where to put this but the subject of pitch selection and velocity has come up a lot this year and fangraphs just added an incredibly nice feature that covers this. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4635&position=P Look at the very bottom of the sheet and you can see average velocity and percentage of pitch types for the past 3 years. Using Bush as an example he threw his fastball less last year and his cut fastball a lot more and it didn't seem to work out too well. His velocity was down slightly for the year too. Capuano also threw fastballs and sliders less and threw the change up a lot more. Wonder if this all comes down to Estrada behind the plate.
  12. Ennder
    Barring a trade I don't see how they could start the year with 12 pitchers. They are gonna have to cut someone they don't want to if they can't find a trade.
  13. Ennder
    I'd say Dillon is the most versatile so is probably the best bet.
  14. Ennder
    5 at Chicago - 2-3 3 at New York - 1-2 (they will get off to a slow start with all the little injuries so we might sneak in 2 wins) 3 at St Louis 1-2 3 at Cincinnati 2-1 (Baker will be playing the vets so they won't be as good as they should) Home Games 3 San Francisco 2-1 3 Cincinnati 2-1 2 St Louis 1-1 2 Philadelphia 1-1 3 Florida 2-1 14-13 To be actually comfortable with those projections I'd have to see the pitching matchups though.
  15. Ennder
    I don't know about that. Fielder has to do it another year to prove he is actually better than Howard. I think he probably is but an outside source needs more proof and I have no problem with that at all.
  16. Ennder
    He also had a DER of .761 for Texas and a .561 in Boston. His xFIP was 4.19 for Texas and 4.21 for Boston which suggests it was just variance. The samples are so small it is impossible to judge what happened for sure without watching him pitch. He was very lucky in Texas and it at least looks like he was extremely unlucky in Boston.
  17. Ennder
    There will be at least one period during the season where Weeks slumps like mad and strikes out 10 times in 25 AB, so this really isn't some huge surprise to me. There will be at least one time when he gets on like 10 times in 18 AB too. I just can't be all that worried about 6 games worth of AB spread out over two weeks of sporadic playtime.
  18. Ennder
    I understand your point, but I don't find any other stat as important as how many runs a pitcher allows. As I said, you can use those stats to explain WHY he wasn't as good, but you simply can't say that a pitcher who in one game gives up 10 runs was just as good as he was in another game when he gave up 2 runs. That's just missing the most basic element of baseball. It's really a very simple game. We will agree to disagree~. The defense and hitters have as much or more to do with how a pitcher pitches than the pitcher does himself. Sometimes you make your pitch perfectly and they hit a HR. Sometimes you get a groundball and your defense misses it. The only way to judge a single game is to watch it, the sample sizes are just too small to accurately judge a start by stats (unless a guy walks 10 guys or something of course). Over 70 innings the variance on ERA/WHIP are just way too high to tell a story of how a pitcher pitched, that is why the stat jumps around so much year to year for RP even though most of their peripherals stay pretty steady.
  19. Ennder
    If he hits 35 HRs I don't care if he has a career year in strikeouts. Strikeouts aren't bad as long as they are increasing BB(working the count) and SLG(doubles and HR) at the same time. Pretty fair article overall.
  20. Ennder
    I think ERA and WHIP are worthless over 70 IP, those stats are about as useful as W's or SV's over that sample for judging a pitcher. Seriously if you want to quote WHIP or ERA to me as a judge of pitchers it better be over 400+ IP or I just don't find it useful.
  21. Ennder
    Well not caring about most of what drives the decision I'd go with Sheets, Gallardo, Parra, whatever. Most likely I'd side with Villanueva because while I don't think he is anything special the odds of him being decent are higher than the rest since he hasn't proven he is just a #4 just yet. Bush, Capuano, Suppan are more or less the same guy and Vargas is a step behind them but probably has better stuff than any of them so more upside.
  22. Ennder
    You can't just send down Bush or Capuano without exposing them to waivers which I assume the team doesn't want to do.
  23. Ennder
    Good news that a team we had no chance to trade with got him.
  24. Ennder
    Here is the problem. Yes the Brewer defense was horrible for Cappy. But with two outs everything is unearned after an error. He gave up base hits after the errors when he couldn't stop the bleeding. I was rooting for him, but let's be realistic. Get him right before giving him the ball. And time is running out. Yes he gave up runs because they made more errors! He got out of the big inning 3 times and the defense missed all 3 chances. When you have to get 6 outs in an inning it is going to be rough.
  25. Ennder
    Torres 07 was just as good as 05-06, he just had a really bad strand rate. His K were up, BB were down and his FB% was the same as in 05. xERA in 05 was 4.33, 06 was 3.87, 07 was 3.82. Now sometimes problems with strand rate is problems pitching from the stretch usually due to injures, so he could repeat that. However there is good reason to expect him to revert to previous form.
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