liveforoctober

I WANT WANG!

Roenicke is going to break Thornburg and Kintzler's arms. Bottom of the order and up 4 sounds like a good spot for just about anyone.

We appreciate it fellas. I don't think "sac bunt" is in GoGo's arsenal...

Hallelujah Rickie. Hopefully that gets him some confidence. Let's get that run back.

Lucroy is just really, really good.

This should be our everyday lineup in my opinion.

Welcome back Jim. Glad to have you.

I would really hope Wang gets to throw in the 9th. Need to break him in sometime... great opportunity.

Might we see Wang today?

Have we already reached the point where Reynolds will be getting 4 out of 5 starts at 1st?

I think Braun and Co need to sit down and decide if he is able to help the club at this point if he isn't confident swinging. Schaefer is already a better defender .. and if we are getting to the point that Logan is a comparable offensive option, Braun needs to shut it down and get some serious treatment on his thumb. DL him and bring up Gindl so we have some competent bats out there. Of course, this is all subject to whether Braun is really having problems .. but there is no use playing him if he can't hold a baseball or swing a bat. We need him well.

We will call that a YoStab.

For the sake of padding numbers I am counting that Reynolds single as 1B production.

I know "Manny being Manny" was a clique phrase regarding Mr. Ramirez... but I think we have officially reached "Carlos being Carlos" mode with GoGo. No chance Pedroia was going to tag on that liner and Gomez almost throws to straight into into the left field tarp. Love the intensity and 100% on everything he does though. Not mad at him.

4-2 start was best case scenario for me heading into the season... Never thought we would be looking at a sweep of the champs. Let's get it done.

That is the first of 53 doubles for Lyle this year. Book it.

I do believe that 50% stat is per pitch ... so if you were take two attempts at it, you would be succeeding 75% of the time, and to eclipse a .380 OBP you would need to be successful at a 50% clip rather than the 70-90% suggested. I'm not necessarily disagreeing with what you are saying. My main point is it this strategy has never been attempted and therefore shouldn't be disgarded so easily. I understand the downside that is possible, but I also think there is a huge upside as well that is worth exploring.

*nods*

I don't there are any numbers out there, period ... supporting or otherwise. It hasn't been attempted. Right now it is just conjecture and forecasting.

But using this mindset "You are taking the bat out of your best player's hands, and relying on lesser players to succeed..." Why don't the top hitters in the game swing at pitches when they are being intentionally walked until its a pitcher's count and make the opposition pitch to them? Isn't that the same thing? They are giving you a base. If Kinsler steals second tomorrow with two outs and the opposition starts to intentionally walk Miggy, shouldn't he swing into a 2-2 count and make the pitcher throw to him? Don't you want your power hitters trying to hit home runs? I understand an intentional walk has a 100% success rate for the offense and what this thread is suggesting does not, however what the opposition is doing is the same... but isn't the thought process you are using the same?

Get your optimism out of here!

Is Garza really about to throw a 2 hit complete game and lose? Ahh, he is up 3rd. Roenicke will throw Reynolds out there to swing hard. At least we will get to see Braun and maybe Ramirez against Kimbrel to end it.

Day off tomorrow and we are already getting Segura/Khrush out of the lineup? Interesting...

"I don't him wasting his time practicing bunting..." What would this be... 3 minutes a day? How long does it take to throw an extra 10 pitches in Batting practice in a cage somewhere? On off days he can spend 10 minutes a day... hardly worth worrying about. "To me, this is comparable to saying that Dwight Howard should shoot 3 pointers, because there is a 40% league average success rate, and people don't defend him beyond the arc." I understand you are using the analogy for effect, but these two things are hardly related. Dwight Howard isn't capable of shooting 3s at an average NBA clip, the best hitters in baseball should be able to bunt at said clip. This is my basic point, I'm not asking Adrian Gonzalez to turn into Ichiro Suzuki and slap at everything. Let him swing away in the majority of his at bats. But this is a strategic play that is hardly utilized by ANYBODY and I think it is a mistake. You are telling me Jay Bruce, who hit .246 and had an OBP of .291 against lefties last year, and the Reds wouldn't benefit from him being on base more often when lefties are throwing to him in these NO RBI situations? I dont buy it.

I think I very much disagree with you. Let's take Prince Fielder for example. Last year he stepped up to the plate 712 times. You mention him hitting a 2B, 3B, or HR ... in only 61 of his at bats last year (36 2Bs, 25 HR - 8.6% of plate appearances) did those 3 outcomes happen. In all other 651 place appearances, he made it no further than first base or he got out. So if we are being honest, the chances of him getting beyond first base are pretty slim to begin with. Prince walked 75 times (10.5% of his total appearances) was HBP 9 times (1.2%) hit 4 sac flies (.06%) and singled in 113 at bats (15.9%). Prince got out the remaining 450 times (63.2%). GIVEN THE SCENARIOS IN WHICH A TEAM WOULD DEPLOY A SHIFT ON A POWER HITTER, in which there is no RBI opportunity ... it is reasonable to assume Prince Fielder is going to get out roughly 2 out of 3 at bats. In that other 1 at bat in which he doesn't get out (using only last year's numbers because I am too lazy to do further research) he is going to end up on 1B roughly 85% of the time. If we are trying to increase scoring opportunities for the ball club, I believe there are 2 ways to do so. 1) Increase the number of XBH 2) Decrease the number of outs made I believe the second one is a much easier mode to attack and this would be an incredibly effective way to do it, both by taking bases when they are being offered to you, but also by forcing the defense to return their shift to defend that bunt, therefore opening up the field on your power side to reach base on "normal" swings. If we can make up that Prince will face 70 "shifts" this upcoming season (10% of plate appearances).. based on last year's numbers he will walk in 7 of those at bats, single in 11, he might get hit by a pitch and HE WILL GET AN XBH in 6 at bats - reaching base safely roughly 24-26 times. If we pull a 50% conversion rate on bunting a fair ball down the 3rd baseline throughout an at bat (getting 2 chances before swinging with two strikes) ... we would be reaching base safely 10 additional times in 70 appearances, and increase of 15%. We've just eliminated 15% of the outs Prince made by accepting 16 singles in place of 4 2Bs, 2 HRs, annd 10ish outs IN NON RBI situations. This also doesn't account for the % of at bats where Prince can't get a bunt down in his first two attempts and swings away with two strikes. Anything positive he does at that point is gravy. (I understand I am assuming that Prince can get a bunt to roll towards 3rd if he tried and I know someone just threw a stat out that said 50% of players fouled off the first attempt, but if you commit to the first two strikes using the approach IN THE SITUATIONS OF A SHIFTED DEFENSE, math tells me (based on the same evidence that user just provided to try and defeat the argument) that 75% of the time you will get the bunt down in that at bat and a 50% success rate of a single in this instance seems fair to me.) I just did a lot of typing and thinking, please oblige me with your thoughts.