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Everything posted by nate82
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Hudson Looks Like He Will Declare Free Agency
nate82 replied to Hate those Rodents's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The Braves have been rumored to be looking for a 1B/3B RH hitter. If they are looking for someone at 3B then Chipper will probably be moving over to 1B. At Chipper's age he really should be playing 1B right now. I'm not sure how well he would be defensively at 1B though he really should be a DH though at this point in his career. -
I don't want Salome in Milwaukee unless he is going to be getting the majority of the starts at catcher. If Salome is up I can almost guarantee you that Rivera would get the majority of the time behind the plate while Salome would sit on the bench which would hurt his development. Salome needs to be playing almost everyday right now and I don't see that happening in Milwaukee. I would rather get a catcher in F/A or have Corporan be the back up catcher than have Salome sit on the bench all year the same with Lucroy.
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I agree with LE here. But I still will be a buying mood I just don't expect the banking and financial sector to improve very much any time soon. With the Bank of America investigation and the AIG stuff still floating around. Rather risky right now to be in the financial and banking sectors. Hopefully the unemployment numbers will start to look better and that should give the market a big push but I'm bearish on the unemployment numbers improving more than 1% nationally.
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I had the same problem when I went to Vegas when I was 21 I never got carded in the casinos but at the restaurants I got carded once and they didn't have a problem with it.
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Maybe this is your ladyfriend?
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Brewers Chances for FA Starters?
nate82 replied to dayzedcrewfan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I believe the Angels have come out and said they doubt they will be able to resign Lackey. With their acquisition of Kazmir it looks very unlikely that the Angels will be able to resign Vlad, Lackey, and Abreu. The Angels will definitely resign Vlad so that will be even less money they will have for Lackey and Abreu. The Angels will then have to decide between Abreu and Lackey and this is where it gets interesting. The Angels look to be resigning Abreu which leaves Lackey out in the cold. Lackey has also stated he will not take a team friendly deal with the Angels or any other team because he already signed one team friendly deal already also with Lackey looking to get A.J. Burnett type of a contract it really does look like the Angels will be out of the running for Lackey. Now for the Dodgers they also seem very unlikely to sign Lackey they also do not have the financial flexibility to sign Lackey. The Dodgers will definitely try to sign Wolf to a longer contract though. Also don't forget about Hudson and Webb who both could become free agents this off season. Here is the quote from John Heyman from SI, That puts the Angels nearly out of the bidding for Lackey if the Angels do not offer that 5th year to Lackey. So Lackey is looking for at least $15-16m per year for 5-years. That is probably out of the Brewers price range also along with a lot of other teams. -
Hardy for 2 years is very meaningful to the Blue Jays and here is why. If the Blue Jays have another down year which in all likeliness they will they can trade Hardy at the deadline. If Hardy plays like 2008 or 2007 again his value goes up and the Jays will get more in return than Escobar. Take the trade I proposed for example if Hardy turns it around and looks like an All Star short stop again the Jays would have Gamel, Salome, Scarpetta/Odorizzi, plus whatever they get for Hardy in a trade near the deadline. That extra year of Hardy would bring in more prospects for the Jays. That alone is not a meaningless 2 years of Hardy.
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Hudson Looks Like He Will Declare Free Agency
nate82 replied to Hate those Rodents's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Hudson has a $12m club option not a player option. The Brewers could probably get him on a one or two year deal. It will probably take three or four years though around the $12m a year mark. He can also opt out of his contract if the 2010 option is picked up. -
Kawakami only has 2 years left on his deal. It is not like the Brewers will be stuck with a huge contract like Suppan's or for a high amount. For $6.667m you are not going to find a cheaper #3 option out there. The pitching the Brewers have is farther away than 2 years and the ones that are about ready are # 4 or 5 starters. With Suppan leaving after this next season you will have to replace him if one of the younger arms do not prove themselves and Kawakami would be a cheap option with 1-year left on his contract. Kawakami makes more sense than a Davis or a Washburn. Hart just is not going to bring back all that much in terms of a trade. He had a bad WAR stat this year at 0.7 if you use WAR to predict what each player is worth to teams you will see that Hart will not fetch you much other than someone like Kawakami. Hart has lost a lot of value the last two years. Maybe two years ago you could have gotten a young pitching prospect that projected to be a #2 or #3 type. I don't believe Hart has that value any more.
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I'm sorry but this is false. Kawakami is not another Suppan. Kawakami put up a good K/9 last year and of the FA that are available only Lackey, Pavano, and Davis had a better K/9 than him. Lackey is the only one that is extremely far ahead of Kawakami in K/9. A 6 K/9 is rather good and it puts Kawakami as the 4th best for the Brewers well above Suppan and Looper. Kawakami is no Suppan. Kawakami isn't a guy like Suppan especially with his K/9. Suppan hasn't put up a K/9 better than 4 since 2005 and Kawakami has already done so. Also who exactly do you think you can get for Hart? It won't be anyone better than Kawakami that is for sure if you are trading Hart for a pitcher. If the Brewers can get a #1 or a #2 pitcher from a Gamel/Hardy trade then Kawakami could easily step in as the #3 pitcher moving each player down a notch. Bush would be a good #4 pitcher and you can have either Suppan or Parra as the #5 starter. A rotation of Hardy/Gamel trade, Gallardo, Kawakami, Bush, and Parra/Suppan that is about as good as the Phillies starting rotation this year and last years. This would be a huge upgrade over this years pitching staff also. As for Kawakami's BABIP I believe it is close to where it will be for his career around the 3.00 range. Also look at his strand rate which isn't that high also it is within the average. Kawakami isn't being looked as the #1 starter here or the #2 at best he would be the #3 starter in the rotation. Without any additions to the rotation Kawakami would be the default #2 then you would have problems but I don't see that happening though.
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Highlights of 2009: What were your favorites?
nate82 replied to hawing's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Prince's big splash walk off home run. Prince breaking the teams RBI record. -
Realistic trade scenarios involving Fielder?
nate82 replied to DannoMac21's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Unlikely and that would be a big gamble if Prince says no and you could have gotten someone like Lackey. -
Realistic trade scenarios involving Fielder?
nate82 replied to DannoMac21's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I believe after last off season (arby numbers) the Brewers and Fielder are closer to what they believe Fielder's value is. Obviously the Brewers are going to offer Fielder an extension that is a no brainer. I believe Fielder will accept a contract this year if the market is yet again down for another year. If it buys out 2-3 years of free agency I believe Fielder will take that. If the market looks to stay low then it will be in Fielders best interest to sign a mid-term deal rather than a long-term deal when he hits FA. It will all depend on the off season though. Holliday, Bay, and Lackey are the only ones that look like they will get huge paychecks this off season so the market maybe down once again after those three are gone. -
With a generous arbitration and resigning numbers for some players the '09 payroll only comes up to about $63m that is without Hall's contract which will be about $7m. That is about $70m then you can take into account that payroll for '09 will be about $80-85m with $85m being the most. For the whole season it will be $90-93m tops (this is taking into account any trade). $90m is the absolute maximum at which the Brewers could operate at by taking a slight loss if not making the playoffs so I doubt the Brewers will go up to the $90m mark. At $70m that is not including Cameron, Looper, Kendall, Lopez, or Weathers coming back. I don't see Lopez coming back unless it is at a team friendly contract which I do not see happening it could happen but the chances of that happening are about as good as Kendall hitting 30 HR's in a season or Suppan winning the Cy Young award. The Brewers need to get at least 2 starting pitchers one will come via a trade and one will come via free agency more than likely. Both C and CF can be filled internally at low costs it may not be the best option but for cost saving reasons you may find this to be the route DM goes.
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I think a Halladay trade might be possible now for the Brewers where it was nearly impossible a few months ago. Hardy, Salome, Gamel, and Scarpetta/Odorizzi. I'm not sure about Scarpetta and Odorizzi though especially with the Brewers giving up two top prospects in Gamel and Salome along with Hardy. What this does is solve the problem at catcher in the minors who moves up and who stays basically. Though it is never a bad problem to have too many catching prospects. I believe Lucroy is the better catcher than Salome but Salome is better offensively than Lucroy though. With Gamel it is really hard to let him go and the only way I would like to see the Brewers trade Gamel is for someone like Halladay or a young #1 or #2 type pitching prospect. I'm not sure what the new Blue Jays GM will be thinking or what he will do but trading Halladay will be something they will be looking at. The Blue Jays definitely will not get as much as they would have gotten during the trade deadline. It is possible that they will but it is unlikely though it will not change all that much though. Subtract one prospect from the list that they would have gotten if they would have traded him during the deadline.
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Will Holliday's error effect his FA/return to St L?
nate82 replied to 44Fishy's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I wonder if the white towels the Cardinal fans are waving at this game are classy compared to the ones the Dodger fans were waving? -
Kawakami is owed $13.334m over the next two years or $6.667m per year. Which is probably around the range of what you could get for a Davis at best. I think the FA this year will get more money than they did last year though. $7-8m per year for 2-4 years sounds about right for this years average pitchers. I would rather have Kawakami over the other middling FA crop even if it does cost Hart in the process. You are not going to get anymore value out of Hart other than someone like Kawakami. Kawakami didn't have a horrible year either he had a rather respectable year. I love his HR/9 rate and he is probably rather close to Pineiro talent wise and he would be less expensive than Pineiro also. Season Team W L ERA G GS CG ShO SV BS IP TBF H R ER HR BB IBB HBP WP BK SO Total - - - 7 12 3.86 32 25 0 0 1 0 156.1 669 153 73 67 15 57 6 6 8 1 105 2009 ZiPS 10 8 4.09 23 19 141.0 145 64 22 30 117 2009 Braves 7 12 3.86 32 25 0 0 1 0 156.1 669 153 73 67 15 57 6 6 8 1 105 Season Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP Total - - - 6.04 3.28 1.84 0.86 .258 1.34 .291 73.3 % 4.21 2009 ZiPS 7.47 1.91 3.90 1.40 .267 1.24 .305 4.14 2009 Braves 6.04 3.28 1.84 0.86 .258 1.34 .291 73.3 % 4.21 Season Team GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% tRA Total - - - 1.08 18.8 % 42.1 % 39.0 % 7.4 % 7.9 % 4.4 % 11.8 % 4.75 2009 Braves 1.08 18.8 % 42.1 % 39.0 % 7.4 % 7.9 % 4.4 % 11.8 % 4.75
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Realistic trade scenarios involving Fielder?
nate82 replied to DannoMac21's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Not even close. Would be more like Ely, Shelby, and then after that there isn't anything special in the White Sox organization that would be worth even mentioning for a trade for Fielder. If anything the White Sox would have to include Beckham to that list and then the Brewers probably wouldn't have any interest in Beckham with the logjam the Brewers already have in the IF. The White Sox are not a good team for the Brewers to target for a Fielder trade. Why the White Sox are not a good choice? It is because they do not have any elite young pitching prospects or MLB ready pitchers. I'm sorry but Danks is not an elite prospect nor is he a great pitcher. A more realistic trade would be Buehrle, Ely, and Shelby/?????? there really isn't much to trade for in the White Sox minor league system there just really isn't anything there it is rather depleted. Ely is the only player I would want from the White Sox farm system. -
Yeah I forgot about Hall's contract that the Brewers owe yet. So it is around $70m.
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I would mind getting Kawakami from the Braves. Kawakami would be a nice #3 starter which would be an upgrade over Suppan, Looper, and Parra. He would be just a little bit better than Bush. The Brewers would only have to find a #1 or #2 type starting pitcher and Kawakami surprisingly is very cheap at $6.667m in '10 and $6.667m in '11. A #3 like starter at about $7m is a steal. Hart will likely get a raise in how much he is making in arbitration somewhere around $5m sounds about right. If Hart is traded though I believe the Brewers would have to hold onto Cameron though especially since in the press conference Melvin mentioned that they are not likely to move Gamel to the OF which is a mistake IMHO. The Brewers could save a lot of money if they do not have to bring back Cameron. Now I really love Cameron and want him back since I believe he is the 3rd best player on the team (positional player). But if the Brewers can save money and bring in a #1 or #2 type starter I would let Cameron go if he would be in the way of acquiring a #1 or #2 type starter. I just did a quick look at what the Brewers would have without Cameron, Hardy, Hart, Kendall, Looper, Weathers, and McClung on the team. Total is in millions. Assuming the Brewers resign Cameron at $8m that brings it to $71m that leaves the Brewers with about $14m to work with. That means Kawakami could be had and he would be the #3 starter on the team that leaves about $8m left for the Brewers to spend on a catcher and another starting pitcher. The catcher will probably come from within the organization and you will also have to figure that either Heether or Iribarren will be with the team at about $.5m. So about $1m needs to be subtracted from that number leaving about $7m for the Brewers to sign a FA pitcher assuming Hardy doesn't bring back a #2 type pitcher. This is where Sheets, Harden, Escobar, Bedard, and Webb come in. Whoever the Brewers can sign for that $7m plus incentives will make that rotation rather good. The incentives would cut into the trade deadline budget though so you have to be careful there. These numbers are not exact just what I believe each player will get. I would say a good margin would be within a of $1-5m for the total salary and player salaries that are not absolutes. Player Salary Jeff Suppan $12.50 Prince Fielder $10.50 Trevor Hoffman $8.00 David Riske $4.50 David Bush $6.00 Rickie Weeks $4.00 Jody Gerut $2.50 Ryan Braun $1.00 Craig Counsell $1.00 Todd Coffey $3.00 Carlos Villanueva $2.00 Manny Parra $0.50 Mike Rivera $1.50 Yovani Gallardo $0.50 Mitch Stetter $0.50 Mark DiFelice $0.50 Alcides Escobar $0.50 Mat Gamel $0.50 Casey McGehee $0.50 Chris Narveson $0.50 Claudio Vargas $2.50 Total $63.00
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End of the World scenerios/Apophis less likely to hit Earth
nate82 replied to InsomniacInkRoss's topic in Off-Topic Forum
Martians invading the earth and nearly destroying it and then us having to play this to kill them Down right scary there. -
Wow that has to be the lamest excuse I have ever heard.
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Nolasco is the cheaper option so he has that going for him with the Marlins. Johnson is definitely going to be more expensive next more so than Nolasco will be. Gamel, Gindl, and Scarpetta/Odorizzi. Not the greatest pitching talent in return but with some promise it is more positional player deep than it is pitcher deep in this trade. That should be close to what it would take to get Johnson. Probably would have to add in another pitcher.
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Washburn was a name that was thrown around and will always be linked to Milwaukee b/c of his Wisconsin ties which is rather stupid. If this is the way to go don't expect a playoff team expect a team similar to this. Washburn hasn't come close to 200 IP since 2007 and hasn't had 200 IP since 2003 expecting Washburn at his age to pitch 200 IP is ludicrous. Davis pitched 200+ IP this year and has been around 200 IP the last couple of years except in 2008 an injury year. I don't believe you can rely on Davis pitching 200 IP either at his age. Davis will be 34 for the majority of the 2010 season turning 35 near the end of the year. That is not a good idea to be expecting Davis to pitch 200 IP. Washburn will be 36 years old during the 2010 season again not a good idea to be looking at him to give you 200 IP. Davis would be OK at least he has an above average K/9 rate but his walks are concerning and he can give you 200 IP. If the Brewers can get Davis on a 1-3 year deal fine but anything longer than that is very risky even 3 years will be risky. Both Washburn and Davis are on the wrong side of 30 years old they are in their decline years and it wouldn't be a smart move by the Brewers to sign them for longer than a 2 year contract. If the Brewers sign both Washburn and Davis do not expect this team to compete for a playoff spot next year.
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I'm sorry but this is not true at all. Washburn gave up 23 home runs this season while Davis gave up 25. Davis pitched in a pitchers friendly NL West what do you think will happen to those numbers when pitching in the hitter friendly parks in the NL Central? They will only go up from there. Now look at Washburn's K/9 it is only better than Suppan's and Looper's K/9. Only Davis put up a good K/9 but that still puts him 4th best on the team. Adding both Davis and Washburn would be a lateral move at best. Washburn = left handed version of Suppan. Both Davis and Washburn's HR/9 will increase over what they had especially Washburn's. If any of the two the Brewers should sign it would be Davis and then another pitcher through a trade would be fine. Washburn is not going to come cheap either and I would not want to see Washburn pitching in a hitters friendly park. Just say no to Cardinals FA pitchers and just say no to control pitchers who were pitching in pitcher friendly ball parks.

