Powell is still pessimistic and isn't rushing a rate cut. So I don't see one coming until the earliest being November or Q1 of '25. We may see a second rate cut in Q2 or Q3 of '25 depending on how the economy is doing.
Really need congress to do their job and actually make some cuts in the budget instead of kicking the can down the road for another 25+ years. I wonder if the can has returned back to where it had started?
One thing people are not talking about enough right now is the horrible birth rate in the majority of first world countries. Even with the illegal immigration that has occurred in the US it is still not enough to curb the coming doom for millennials. Millennials may have to face a third crisis in their lifetime if the baby making doesn't happen soon. Birth rates in the US have fallen a lot and our population density is starting to look fat at the top and then skinny in the middle and bottom. Right now there are enough millennials and gen x in the workforce to support the baby boomers. But once millennials and gen x's start retiring there are not enough Gen Z to replace them in the workforce and the next generation looks to be smaller than Gen Z.
Government pensions will be hit the hardest by this. This will be the millennials third financial crisis if this comes true. For millennials it is the financial / housing crash and then the current housing market issues. The third possible financial hardship will be the social security and pension crash after the baby boomers are gone. There will not be enough high skilled workers (high paying jobs) to support the pensions. If everything holds true we should see a pension crash somewhere between 2040-2045. Gen Z's if they are in power are not going to vote for higher taxes as it won't just be the 1% paying these higher taxes it will be them. We are kind of on track to follow in Greece's footsteps here and I don't see a EU to bail us out as Canada, Mexico, EU, South Korea and even China are facing this issue.
Hopefully all of the models that I have seen are wrong about this but it may just suck to be a millennial.