The thing is that 86 wins is a hot streak for Philly, NY, and the Brewers. That finish would require their winning % to be 7% better than they've been all year. And all three of them won't do it, probably one will, maybe two. Even the Cubs would have to finish the final 32 at a slightly better clip to hit 86, but they would be the favorite to do it since the margin is smaller. It's a mediocre field, with the former three teams hovering 4-7 games over .500 for months now. I can't see one of them suddenly jumping to almost 20 over.