OldSchoolSnapper
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Everything posted by OldSchoolSnapper
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It's a toss up but I also think Minnesota is going to take it. Better defensive team. Detroit is much more susceptible to a one and done than people seem to think. They are banged up. Their defense is just not good. They are going to have their hands full if they're traveling to Tampa.
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This field is better than that one, the Packers were better defensively, but this is classic revisionism. You're just going back with the benefit of knowing the results and making sweeping statements about it. It's always very difficult to win the Super Bowl. Point is, nobody will remember this being some juggernaut NFC if say, Philly and Minnesota lose in the 1st round. The game with Atlanta was decided by the Tramon INT to end the half. It completely changed the trajectory of a game that should have been 21-17 at half. That Atlanta team was good, but it was a ball control offense and going down 2 touchdowns against our defense was insurmountable. The Packers barely escaped the first round. If that final ball to Cooper was thrown a couple feet higher, it's a touchdown. That said, the Packers were probably the best team in the NFC but they evolved as the year went on, particularly on offense, had a lot of brutal losses and bad injuries. This team just doesn't have the impact players that team did on either side of the ball. There's no Greg Jennings, there's no Woodson, no Matthews.
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1 in 25 is a lot greater than 1 in 1,000.
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The loser of MN/DET falls to 5 and is visiting Tampa most likely, a tough team DET lost to at full strength. They will likely have a battle just to advance out of the Wild Card. If they win, they're still quite possibly visiting LA in the divisional. The winner would play us, as you said. I don't really see an "easy" path for anybody, looking at the quality of Washington's losses, there just isn't really a chump in this year's NFC field. I think people get way too wrapped up in the seedings. I have seen it go sideways so many times, including for the Packers. I remember jumping for joy in 07 when NYG knocked off Dallas and yelling "We're going to the Super Bowl!" I didn't take SF seriously at all in '21. Packers are simply not a favorite, it is what it is. I don't think 5, 6 or 7 they were seeded would have made a real difference there.
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Jaire officially on the shelf. Not a big surprise, but I guess the good news is that it was actually his knee and not a personality thing. That is probably a death knell for the Packers run, but at least they've already been playing without him.
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And what would you say 25% is?
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Not sure comparing the Packers to the Bears is like comparing the Packers to the Eagles. This place gets so incredibly reactionary. The odds of any one team making the Super Bowl aren't very good. But I am not even talking Super Bowl. I'm talking winning a first round game, which I'd put somewhere around 25-35%. I don't have the feeling of say 2020 when we had to play SF and it was incredibly obvious we couldn't hold their jock. The Packers can beat any of these teams, realistically. It's not that long of a shot.
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I don't think there's a significant gap. I think the Packers can beat anyone they draw. They haven't actually proven they can beat one of these top teams, but I still think they can. They have just got to stop this first half Houdini offense crap. I'd go into the Eagles matchup not really expecting a win, but I would be optimistic and expect it to be competitive.
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To be clear I am not advocating his firing and believe is a good coach, I felt the same about Budenholzer, but sometimes lack of results just dictate a change. I do think it is a bit odd that "well the Vikings are better" is some kind of excuse for him and the Packers. That is kind of a big part of his job to ensure that doesn't happen.
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Long enough that he isn't getting canned this year no matter what, sure. Almost zero chance would next year either. After that, I'd think yes, no substantial achievement with 2 franchise QBs. Nine years is a very long time. After 4 years with Love those whispers are definitely going to be there.
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Thanks for pointing out that it's a "fact." I'm not offering a hot take. I'm pointing out that the entire thing is a bit exaggerated and blown out of proportion when the entire league is young. No team has an average age of like 30, and you're talking about .1 and .3 year average age gaps between teams. The other side of "multiple gos" is that the Packers are already good enough now to win championships and they were last year too, and when you're as close as they are, an established pass rusher or actual standout receiver has the potential to make a big difference. "Identifying your core" is great, except it becomes a bit of a problem if you sign a guy to a 4 year rookie deal and he doesn't contribute until year 4 when you now have to pay him. Any criticism of the Packers doesn't have to mean they suck and the whole thing should be blown up. But they have not gotten enough out a litany of early defensive draft picks.
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I just don't believe this is Detroit at its best, but I also don't think they're going to win the NFC. Just too banged up. Taking emotion out of it, Minnesota seems most balanced and firing on all cylinders. I have a mental block believing Darnold is the real deal but they are getting hard to deny at this point. I will cling to the dream they choke it away. Minnesota vs. Detroit is very possibly the divisional game as well. It is going to be a very entertaining NFC playoffs.
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The Lions can take the game off if they want. Means nothing as long as they beat Minnesota.
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I think we want a Super Bowl. He hasn't impressed in playoff games and other marquee games. This whole "youngest team" schtick is getting kinda dumb while we're on it. Less than 2 years separate the youngest and oldest teams. It's a difference of 25.2 and 27.1 from youngest to oldest. People act like we're talking about 13 year olds here or something. I haven't seen anyone mention that maybe the Packers shouldn't be so young and they have undervalued veteran presence to the point that they could have achieved more by now with an above average end instead of Lukas Van Ness. Not really that great when your hottest young commodities aren't playing meaningful snaps until year 4.
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Earth. This is MLF's 6th season. He spent the first 4 with an MVP QB. He has a 68% regular season winning percentage and is 3-4 in the playoffs without winning the conference. I think both can be true: He is one of the best coaches in the league, but it is getting close to when people start asking if he can get the Packers over the hump. IMO, he is a developing a reputation almost like a Mike Budenholzer. A guy that is good to develop young talent and win regular season games, but there are really not many signature wins on his resume as a head coach. I would even say Mike McCarthy's teams showed up better in those games. Nobody is saying he is on a hot seat today. But with another early dip from the playoffs, I think by next season those hot takes will start swirling. If they do it again next season, then I'd guess those conversations pick up some real steam. What the Packers actually do about it is an entirely different story. As a club, they are probably one of the slower teams to pull big triggers like that. I like MLF, not advocating for his firing yet. But I think their diarrhea in marquee games this year has added fuel to the fire. All becomes moot if they do good stuff next month, though.
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I am beginning to wonder if something else is going on with him and he doesn't want to play. I saw someone else mention it here a week ago, but something doesn't smell right. But my unqualified speculative read on it is that he's played his last snap for the Packers already.
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How long will it take before there are whispers about MLF's job? My guess would be after next season if there isn't a deep run. I'm sure some people will laugh at that, like they did when I said something similar about Mike Budenholzer, but pro sports are incredibly fickle. I like MLF, but the postseason failure under Rodgers plus 3 seasons of Love would have to start those rumblings. Can only fire so many coordinators before it gets back to you.
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I'm genuinely not sure how the defense is as good as it is with what feels like very, very little playmaking. It's not incredible but it's safely in at least the top half of the league and probably a little better...yet who on that defense do you find yourself saying, "OK, make a play here!" There's nobody. The alleged best player they have has barely played. There's McKinney, but he hasn't really done much big play stuff in the second half. Overall I think they've done a good job with the defense but they are badly missing some star power in the front 7 and the litany of early round picks have been, for the most part, hugely disappointing. Love is probably the most insignificant of the three points. Doesn't look like he's really taken a leap this year, but I think he's a championship quality QB and frankly we shouldn't require an MVP to win the Super Bowl.
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I am not so sure the Rams are the break some people think they are. I don't think there is a bad team in the field. Washington has mostly quality losses with the exception of Dallas and Tampa was just hurt all year. It's Atlanta if they make it.
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Well yeah, lol. Vikings and Lions have lost a combined 4 times, one of them to the other. All three are loaded offensively. Even Darnold is on some MVP pixie dust. None of them look great for GB on paper. Barkley will make plays. But the Packers generally haven't been killed by the run this year and for the most part they are solid with mobile QBs. I'd experience exactly 0 level of surprise if they got absolutely shredded by Philly, but, maybe I just don't want to lose a 3rd game to another divisional team. I'll roll the dice with the in-fighting Eagles.
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If the Packers have to play one of the top 3 right away, Philly is the one I want. There's been enough weird crap going on there this year that it's the one that would just make a good story if they crap the bed. I don't like their odds against any of them, but at least give me what seems like the most dysfunctional team.
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We both should have lost to the Bears so I'll call it even.
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If we're gonna pick random subjective things that aren't even in the actual criteria, they lost to Dallas. I really couldn't care less about being 6 or 7 though. Conference record is a dumb tiebreaker if you're going to count divisional opponents that you have to play twice. Just use the record against non divisional opponents.
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People are really sure of guaranteed outcomes tonight. Is anyone aware that the Cowboys, at 3-7, beat them in Washington with Cooper Rush? Much stranger things have happened. I didn't even think Atlanta would be within 10 of them tonight. They're not that great. It's a divisional game. Dallas sucks, but you just never know.
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The Packers really took one playing in this division. Not only the obvious in that you play two 13/14-win teams twice but that also crushed their conference record. Kinda stupid when they lost a single game outside their own division yet Washington gets a conference record tiebreaker.
