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CheezWizHed

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Everything posted by CheezWizHed

  1. CheezWizHed
    Yeah, obviously errors are subjective and maybe poorly called. But I think that most errors that ARE identified are obviously bad plays. The play that anyone should say, yep any MLB caliber player should have made that one. I didn't see the fly ball you mentioned yesterday, but those type of plays generally ARE luck related. That's why the aren't counted as errors. I'm sure some MLB outfielder would have made the catch, but there is enough reason for the average fielder to not make the play. So you have a stat that separates obviously bad plays and borderline bad plays. Its not a perfect measure (obviously), but its better than ignoring it IMO. Is Braun really that bad in the OF? I don't get to watch many games, but I thought he was pretty average in LF. But even if he is limited on defense, his limitation effects both Narveson and Bush. Any obviously bad plays (i.e. errors) are such a small sample size, they rarely are equally distributed. Thus the reason to try to minimize their effect on a pitcher.
  2. CheezWizHed
    Well, they have started to sign draft picks, but I would think only a small handful would start at low-A ball like Nelson, Thornburg and Morris. I doubt they will promote anyone that has been in extended ST, waiting for rookie ball to start... Granted demotions of non-prospects could also make room for some promotions. When do the Brewers normally start promotions? After the half seasons are done?
  3. CheezWizHed
    But Ben has the whole Jeff Bennett hat thing going on... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif But otherwise its a blonde and brunette version of the same person...
  4. CheezWizHed
    That was my first thought when I saw the news. Best thing Suppan has done for us all year. Now hopefully, he can help us again come July 1-4...
  5. CheezWizHed
    Ok, I'm going to say it. After being a big Hart supporter, I'd like to see Hart traded and Katin given a chance. This season is toast and while I think Hart is a good MLB player, I don't see a future for him with the Brewers. Would be nice to see if Katin can be something in the MLB...
  6. CheezWizHed
    No, that's why I used the word SEEM. Just trying to point out that perception and reality can be very different. Seems like there is a lot of complaints about our training staff/methods/etc... but no real data to back up whether if our success rate is any higher or lower than others (injury wise).
  7. CheezWizHed
    Hmmm.... Get paid to watch baseball, won't guarantee a win, "could" make a difference, no way to prove if its helping or not.... I'm available for this position!
  8. CheezWizHed
    Yet they still seem to suffer more than their fair share of injuries to young pitchers. Any stat to back that up? I would wager that we are more along the norm than an outlier on the worst side...
  9. CheezWizHed
    Those quoting his .200 BA fail to mention his .814 OPS. I know he has been used batting 2nd, but why not leave him there??? I'd like to see his BA rise, but that isn't the problem here. Its his defense that is his main issue. Plus, I'm shocked and disappointed that no one has pointed out his 3TO potential so far. He is at .544 on the year... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  10. CheezWizHed
    To have 3 players do that would be an oddity. Typically, your HR guy is also a high RBI guy. So having two players (HR/RBI and AVE) do it would seem easier than three. And thanks for giving us something to cheer for! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  11. CheezWizHed
    I don't see how it makes sense to say that the pitcher bears no responsibility for allowing home runs and other hits in an inning just because an error occurred on a previous play. Was Bush not trying to get those guys out and did he not fail to do so? Mainly because he had to get 4 outs in an inning. Yeah, a better pitcher will more often get that 4th out. But as you add outs to an inning, the average amount of runs allowed is going to increase exponentially not proportionally. Is there a way to tell how many errors occurred while a certain pitcher was pitching? If you are going to look at just RA, you should at least add those errors occurred as 1/3 IP (but even that isn't perfect, as I mentioned the probability of runs scored goes up exponentially). In comparing Bush and Narveson, the biggest differences (besides ERA) appear to be HR, strikeouts, and opponents SLG...all of which favor Narveson. Considering all that, I'd say Narveson appears to have been a more successful pitcher than Bush so far this season. Don't confuse my arguments as defending Bush. I'm countering the argument itself, not defending Bush. But I do think Bush gets railed on far too much while Narveson gets none (or very limited). The main difference is that Bush had success as a SP, Narveson hasn't. Neither is having success right now. Personally, I hope they both get replaced.
  12. CheezWizHed
    How did the Arnett conversation jump in here??? BJ, that was a good explanation of the whole picture. But I'm not totally convinced, as unearned runs are generally small samples and need to be handled Unless you're looking at a Jose-Canseco-in-the-outfield, Fly-ball-into-HR-type of error, it's something that the pitcher can (and has to) work around. Or someone boots a ball that should have been a 3rd out and run(s) score... If a pitcher gets 2 outs, then someone gets on via an error and then 5 runs score. Yeah, they lean more towards "earned", even when they are not counted as such. But forcing a pitcher to get 4 outs in an inning also is a detriment to both that inning and future innings, so you can't just count those on his ticket either. Bush's 6 unearned runs: Houston: 2 UERA in one inning- Escobar's throwing error should have been 2nd out. Next batter made the 2nd out. Next batter singled scoring two (one prior hit, one from the error). LAD: 2 UERA in one inning- Fielder's error was to be the third out. One scored on the play. One scored on the next hit. CHC: 2 UERA in one inning - Weeks error was to be the third out. Next batter hits a homer. Both scored. So looking at that, I would add 1 run to Bush (since he already had guys on base) in Houstan. But he shouldn't have to account for the one that got on by error or either time the third out of the inning was booted (LAD and CHC).
  13. CheezWizHed
    Tennessee must be a good place to watch MiLB this year... AAA has Nashville and Memphis tied for first. And AA has Tennessee and West Tennessee as 1st and 2nd, with one game between them.
  14. CheezWizHed
    super excited? No. Sounds like we got a good value pick in the 4th round, but lets see him play ball before we anoint him the Prince heir apparent...
  15. CheezWizHed
    I would agree that the judgment calls on errors is poor. The benefit of the doubt generally goes to the fielder (i.e. only the obviously bad plays are characterized as errors). So the fact that Bush has had more obviously bad defensive plays (leading to the unearned runs) behind him is not good luck. If anything you would have to argue that Narveson was a victim of more non-obviously bad plays, which were hits instead of errors, thus inflating his ERA. This may be true, I don't know... But having an error occur behind you on defense is never "lucky".
  16. CheezWizHed
    Yes, 1, LHP Daniel Gibson. Like Scooter and Howell, he's in BA's top 200. So is Thomas Keeling (18th round). So Keeling is a junior and can return to OK. Reports of throwing across the body concern me. But I suppose a lot of guys have that issue to be "corrected" and without his excellent strikeout rate. Gibson is committed to U of FL and since he was drafted in the 26th round, I'm guessing he is going to be a hard sign... But also sounds like he has room to improve his velocity.
  17. CheezWizHed
    Anyone drafted in the late teens that would be an above slot signing like Scooter and Howell from last year?
  18. CheezWizHed
    Corey Hart loses a ball in the lights and it is a double, Weeks overthrows first on a double play and the runs scoring afterwords count as earned runs. A ball is hit hard to McGehee's left and his poor range causes him to miss it and they are earned runs. That is fine. But every single example you gave would increase the pitcher's earned runs, not their unearned runs. And Narveson and Bush both have to contend with a poor defense behind them.... The argument was made that Bush benefited from having a high number of unearned runs as opposed to Narveson, so (for some reason) his ERA was lower. As if Bush was destined to allow those runs, but someone booted a ball to make them "unearned" instead. My argument is that Bush would have benefited from someone not making the error (thus making an out) instead. No one mentioned errors being defense...
  19. CheezWizHed
    How is it that a guy has to go on the 60-day DL with "right shoulder fatigue?" Its called HIPAA. Frustrating as fans, but they really don't have to tell us what is really happening, if they don't want to.
  20. CheezWizHed
    Can anyone guess what round the brewers will take their first canadian? I'm going to "guess" the 7th round...
  21. CheezWizHed
    Bush has the 'benefit' of having given up more unearned runs, which is why his ERA is nearly a run lower than Narveson. I've heard someone use this argument before, but it doesn't make any sense. Its almost like its expected that Bush would give up those runs anyway, but was lucky that someone made an error, so they would be unearned. But the truth is that someone made an error where there should have been an out. Forcing Bush to throw more pitches, reducing his effectiveness for later in the game and allowing him to pitch less innings. Not trying to be a Bush apologist, here, but the argument, just doesn't make sense to me.
  22. CheezWizHed
    So has the TV coverage slowed things down or is it just my perception because I'm at home and not at work?
  23. CheezWizHed
    I think JB is on to something. - His BA and OBP is almost identical to last year. Its his SLG that has improved dramatically (.418 up to .588). - His flyball % is up (50.8% from career 42.5%), groundout % down (36.7% from career 40.0%) - Funny thing is that his BABIP is way below career norms (.243 vs .301), so he could improve his BA yet.
  24. CheezWizHed
    Not sure why you would put two current SPs (Capuano/Bush) into the bullpen, as we don't have anyone to take their place... Unless you are putting Parra and Estrada back as starters (since they are not in the top 8). Disagree on Braddock also. He would be in the top 4. Plus lower on the list, I wouldn't want Butler or Rivas even be hinted at being RPs. They are SPs and need to remain there. 1. John Axford 2. Zach Braddock+ 3. Todd Coffey 4. Carlos Villanueva 5. Mitch Stetter+ - Better option than others, but because he has a MiLB option left, will be left at AAA for this year, unless injuries occur. 6. Chris Narveson+* 7. Trevor Hoffman 8. Manny Parra+ 9. Chris Smith 10. LaTroy Hawkins - Moved down until he proves healthy 11. David Riske - Moved down until he proves healthy 12. Marco Estrada 13. Tim Dillard - new arm angle showing improvements? 14 .Kameron Loe* 15. Claudio Vargas - Not presently, but I think his is suffering similar to Hawkins and can improve with some time off. 16. Jeff Suppan - well, he is healthy, so he has that going for him... 17. Brian Bruney - there is a reason why he was cut... 18. Jeff Bennett - there is a reason why he was available... 19. Brandon Kintzler - will move up list fast.
  25. CheezWizHed
    I've been a Hart supporter since he came up, but I'll admit I started to doubt this offseason. I don't think anyone (maybe Corey's mom), expected this hot of a start. I was surprised to see he now leads the team on OPS. And he drew 2 walks last night. So what do people expect contributed the most to Hart's improvement? - Contacts? - Macha wanting him to see more pitches last year -> causing him to be less aggressive? - Playing way above his socks and will regress back to the last two years (700s OPS player)? - Just had poor years (2008/2009) and having a good year now, but average is in between (800s OPS player)? - Finally adjusted to how people were pitching him and this is what to expect (900s OPS player)? - Finally figured out the correct elbow position? I tend to think the contacts are probably helping, but I'm thinking Hart's norm would be around an 850 OPS. So was just below average the last two and playing above average now.
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