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CheezWizHed

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Everything posted by CheezWizHed

  1. Lara and Perkins are so similar, it is kind of funny. Switch hitters. GG type glove in CF. Light on power. Decent OBP (Perkins in the minors at least). The 5" in height is probably the biggest difference. But with Perkins at age 29 - not old but over his prime years. Those prime years only had him as an ~80 OPS+ hitter. So, there isn't much juice left to squeeze unless you want a defensive late-inning replacement and PR. I'd guess Lara gets a chance in the second half of 2026... or makes the team in 2027 with Perkins moving on.
  2. Patrick (trolling BF.net): I'll show those arm-chair no-nothings a thing or two! 😏
  3. You and I have been saying that every offseason after his rookie year, but he hasn't fixed his hands and just hasn't taken that next step. It think the reality is that he is a 30-40 reception guy for 300-400 yards. He is going to a team where he is still a 4th WR at best (unless they trade AJ Brown), the top two had 1000 yard seasons and AJ Brown wants more. You have a TE that will get around 600 yards and give the RBs another 250 yards. That accounts for 2850 of Hurt's typical 3200 yards. I don't think 800 yards is going to be easy at all for Wicks. I think he would've gotten more looks on the Packers this year. He would've made a nice emergency plan if Golden doesn't step into Doubs role well (that reliable goto possession receiver), but I happily take the 5th and 6th round picks and run...
  4. I'm not sure Patrick is "just another guy" in the rotation. And I'm not convinced that Henderson is better than Patrick. Both have some issues getting through a third time in the rotation, so I can get the interest in moving to the BP, but I'm not sure this is the time.
  5. Hard to tell exactly with the baggy shirt... but he threw like he could barely rotate his arms. Belly-wise not so much, but he arms and chest looked big (and not the "ripped" type of big).
  6. I missed the announcement of the Brewers moving back to the AL... When do we play an NL team???? (Note that his is rhetorical question. Please don't quote the schedule for me. You know who you are...😛)
  7. Phil Jackson is only 80...
  8. Ok, like it or not, let's just move back to Pratt's discussion.
  9. Why do we have an issue when someone "dislikes" our comments? Is it no longer ok to disagree with someone? This is a forum and debate (including the simple "dislike") is completely encouraged. Do some people annoy us more than others? Yes. Do I have to respond to everyone? No. Do I have an innate need to be fully and unconditionally loved? Go buy a Labrador and ignore the annoying, anonymous people on the internet.
  10. I was one of those who thought he would break out. The drops were one thing, injuries another. He could still be a steal for the Eagles, but I tend to doubt it. The $12.5M price tag for year two also would indicate they think he will break out. One "trade grade" article I read said that Wicks could be better with a better cast around him.... huh? Jordan is a better passing QB than Hurts and Wicks couldn't pass the WR we had... how is he going to be better if (doubtful) the competition is better? I wonder how some writers have jobs...
  11. 9 games is enough. Cut the bum!
  12. Keeps everyone else on schedule. Allows Sproat a bit more time for adjustments. The math seems simple...
  13. We still have Stackhouse and Ford on the roster - not that it makes me feel better about our run D... We could've easily dumped Ford if we didn't feel a NT was that important. Stackhouse could/should improve on last year and might be "sufficient" in a rotation with Hargrove. Christian Miller seems like the ideal NT target for the Packers. He reminds me of Kenny Clark - big enough to handle the NT, but with some wiggle for pressures and penetration. Not a 2 down NT. If they can't get Miller or someone like him high in the draft, I'd guess they grab a late round NT to compete with Stackhouse and "make do" for another year.
  14. The reality is that the contract doesn't change the situation in the least. The Brewers were ALWAYS going to setup their defense to have the best defensive SS at SS. They were both going to compete to see who plays SS for several years anyway (with or without this contract). Made being the higher "rank" wasn't going to gift him the SS position, just like Pratt's contract doesn't gift it to him. If the Brewers had done this in the dark and fully surprised Made and his agent... maybe that might bring some questions. But I'm pretty sure that the Brewers have spoken to Made's agent about a contract and also informed them about Pratt's. Who knows... maybe Made will be signing his own contract soon. On the other hand, Joey Ortiz might not feel all that comfortable... (nor should he).
  15. In a weird twist, CB Bucknor challenged his own call behind the plate. Alas, it came back as a "strike".
  16. I hope not, because that would mean only one of them is really any good!
  17. Willllllson booked it off the field like his pants were on fire. I don't think anyone knew Hamilton was hurt until Willson was barking from the dugout.
  18. Dude clearly spent too much time with the Cardinals. I wonder if the brothers had a chat last night.
  19. The check is in the mail! Not bad for someone that almost didn't submit a bracket! 😂
  20. Our pitching depth always seems deeper than it really is. I think we need all of it to get through the season. We needed 14 different starters (not including "openers") to make it through last year. Plus several "BP games".
  21. I posted this in another thread, but want to highlight how we often see a large pile of money being given to an unproven player (when we can’t spend money on FAs) and struggle to see the risk/benefit the team is actually taking. Plus, the CBA changes will most likely only make this deal look better in the long run. ######################################################################## I was curious how Pratt's extension might compare to his theoretical path through arbitration. So I compiled a list of shortstops that have been in arbitration over the past 5 years (AI technically, so I'm sure I've missed a few players, but have enough of a sample to be in the ballpark). I calculated their Average WAR/year (this I did by hand) so I could put them in MIN, MID, and MAX tiers. 0-2 WAR=MIN, 2.1-4 = MID, 4.1+=MAX. So that gives me a potential list of salaries for Pratt if he takes one of those three paths. For the "normal" path, I assumed he would be in AAA this year and gave him a max AAA salary. Then for the FA year, I dumped what was left of the $50.75M "budget" (his contract amount) to see how good of a deal this would be. I used a 5% inflation for all numbers (salary and cost of WAR) to project out for 7 years. So, for today's FA cost of $8M/WAR, I used about $11.4M. Year Min Mid Max AAA $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 1 $ 863,718 $ 863,718 $ 863,718 2 $ 1,300,059 $ 1,300,059 $ 1,300,059 3 $ 1,591,457 $ 1,591,457 $ 1,591,457 Arb 1 $ 3,707,294 $ 4,791,120 $ 10,924,362 Arb 2 $ 5,661,106 $ 11,103,650 $ 23,383,026 Arb 3 $ 6,834,488 $ 13,484,712 $ 28,142,008 FA 1 $ 30,691,878 $ 17,515,283 $ (15,554,631) WAR 2.7 1.6 -1.4 1. Bust: Brewers take on all the risk if Cooper doesn’t play well enough to even make arbitration (without the contract). 2. Min: Cooper is producing as a 0-2 WAR/year player, so it would be the equivalent of playing Joey Ortiz over $30M for one season – 2.7 WAR cost. Brewer failure for this outcome. 3. Mid: Cooper is producing 2-4 WAR/year (Willy Adames), so it would be equivalent to playing a FA SS $17.5M/year – 1.6 WAR cost. Adames got far more than that two years ago. Though that isn’t our normal mode of operation, we still find value. 4. Max: Cooper producing 4+WAR/year means that we actually pay $15.5M less through arbitration than the equivalent SS that is going through arbitration. And the one FA year is “free”. The next two option years are almost certainly used here too. I see Cooper’s floor to be a “Min” player given his defensive capabilities, so there really isn’t a huge risk for Brewers with a lot of upside possibilities.
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