It wouldn't take a lot for us to dip down to 73 wins. We won 86 but we're going to be without Nelson for an undetermined amount of time and if he gets back during the season it will probably just be to get some innings, not expecting ace like production. That's probably a 3-4 win drop and we're already down to 82 or 83 wins. If Anderson regresses to say a 1.5 WAR pitcher (last year's 3.3 WAR was more than he accumulated in 400+ innings over his career previously) then we could be in for another 2 win drop and we're down to 80 or 81. Knebel could regress, Santana could regress, Shaw could regress, Braun could get hurt and all of those things happening and they aren't as far fetched as some think, then we're probably in the 72-75 win range. Now obviously we could get breakouts from Arcia, Phillips, Brinson etc to push the win total back up but you had a lot of guys that are older doing things they never came close to doing before, so projections are probably going to have them regressing to somewhere between what they had done prior to last year and what they did last year and weighted closer to the lower end because there's more of a sample size of production or lack thereof. Don't forget the likely uptick in having Woodruff over Garza or Peralta having starts. The win change from #4/5 whomever that may end up being(Hader/FA sign/Trade?) That is one thing I'm looking forward out of this club and from within the minors, are the quality additions to a #4 or #5. I do expect Anderson to regress back some to his norm, but then again, maybe that is offset by play from Villar. Aguilar/Pina could be strong regress candidates. I'd still like to think the team is closer to 80wins than 70 wins with a bright future/more upside than regression concerns. Add one starter (Archer) ane bullpen arm and sign Walker 3/30.. I personally like trading with the Marlins for S. Castro and Urina. I think they would do that for a 4 prospect deal. Then sign a reliever who had a bad 2017, but good 2014-2016.