804Sox

Yes. McGehee had a good year last year, but there is NO evidence that he'll do it again. Obviously it's possible that McGehee had a breakout year and will continue to produce at a high level, but it is far more likely that this season was an anomaly because he lacks tools, pedigree, and track-record. When a highly touted prospect with highly rated tools has a season that is far better than he has previously produced, it is justifiiable to predict continued success in the future, even without a track-record of MLB or MiLB success to back it up, because one can assume that perhaps the player has finally "put it together." Examples include Hanley Ramirez, who jumped from AA to the Majors and had a monster rookie year after having put up pedestrian numbers throughout his major league career. Josh Hamilton's breakout year in 2007 earned him enough value to return Edinson Volquez because the former #1 overall pick had the pedigree and the tools to suggest that his '07 season was not an anomaly. He rewarded the Rangers with 130 RBI the next season. Along these lines, Felix Pie is a player whose success I would expect to continue because he has always had good tools, was once a highly rated prospect, and is still only 24. Of course there are exceptions to this logic too. Corey Patterson had the tools to back up his breakout, but never acquired the patience or contact ability to be a successful major leaguer. Casey McGehee does not fit this mold. The former 10th round pick never appeared on any of the Cubs top-prospect lists, was available to be claimed off waivers by the Brewers, and has unspectacular tools in terms of power and speed. He is also entering his age 27 season, where most players are peaking physically (suggesting that some of his HR will turn into doubles, in line with his minor league track record) On the other hand, there are the players whose breakout is not backed by tools or pedigree, but whose track-record of success suggests that they will continue to be successful. Dustin Pedroia was this type of player. Scouts always questioned his small stature, super-long swing, and questionable power and speed tools, but Pedroia hit at every level. When he hit .317 with an .823 OPS as a rookie in 2007, it was clear that Pedroia's season was not a fluke because he had hit at every level as he worked his way through the system. Once again, McGehee does not fit this mold. He never once posted an OPS over .780 in his 6-year minor league career, and hit poorly in Chicago in a negligibly small sample size. McGehee COULD have another good year, in which case I would be forced to take note and reassess his value, but right now there is nothing to suggest that he will repeat last year's performance. I would predict his OPS to fall in the .780-.800 range with more doubles, fewer HR, slightly lower AVG, and lower isoD. That type of production wouldn't at all be bad, but is not what most teams would want out of a starting 3B.

I mean . . . they're all good baseball players. Anyone who makes it to the majors or is a reasonably well-respected prospect is. But "good" is relative, especially when trying to acquire one of the top pitchers in ALL of baseball. Even though they may be "good" in some sense, all four of the players you list are the type that can be found in most organizations and a re certainly not sufficient to acquire a player of Johnson's calibre McGehee has to be considered a good utility infielder right now, and nothing more. He has poor prospect pedigree, almost no track record of major or minor league success before this year, unimpressive tools, and little upside given his current age. He doesn't hit for enough power to be a good starting 3B, the position where he best fits defensively. If McGehee repeats the year he had last year, then certainly perception of his value will change considerably, but until then it is relatively low. Salome is a pretty good hitter for a catcher, but every report i've read indicates that he's unlikely to stick there. His bat becomes much less impressive when he's projected as a 1B or DH. Gomez is probably the best player in the deal, and I'm higher than him on most because he does 3 things very well. He has great range in CF, a good arm, and outstanding speed. Gomez was a highly regarded prospect who was rushed and still has huge holes in his game, but he has more tools than any other player int he deal and still COULD put it together (I don't think he'll ever be a good hitter). Even if he doesn't, Gomez is an elite defender and base-runner. and will always be a useful piece. I, admittedly, don't know too much about Rivas, but it is clear from this site's rankings and those of the major prospecting publications that he's not a stud prospect, and a trade for Johsnson would most certainly require at least 1 stud prospect going in the Marlins direction. In summation, all of the above are "good" baseball players, but acquiring a young, proven ace like JJ requires the transfer of elite prospects.

Sounds like they want to move Uggla and thus move Coghlan to 2B, which would open up another OF spot. From what I heard they wanted a true CF as they think Maybin is better suited defensively as a corner OF. So... 2 MLB-ready players = Gomez and McGehee 2 AA prospects = Salome and either Jeffress or Rivas They get Gamel instead of McGehee only if we get John Baker in return. BTW - they want to get rid of salary, so don't have any proposals that include anyone making seven figures for at least two years (i.e. Hart, Bush, Weeks, etc.) wow. there are 0 good players/prospects in this trade proposal. Is that all it takes to land a young, cost-controlled ace?

Exactly. Sorry. Lucroy is the better prospect than Salome

1) lucroy is by far the better prospect than Salome right now, as others have mentioned. I don't think he can stick at catcher, and his best case offensive projection would make him an average or below average 1B. I'm notcsure what you were talking about with Lucroy moving all over the diamond, but the point is, if lucroy can stick at catcher, which he should, then he doesn't have to hit that much to be valuable. 2) gamel has a very high value. Everybody knows that. He's one of the best MLB- ready bats in the minors. The leagues gms won't be scared off by the SSS of his MLB debut

If the Marlins prefer Gamel to Lawrie it's not because they're afraid of blocking at 2B with Coghlan, who is a pretty bad defensively there. I think he'll probably end up in LF, where, unfortunately, his bat won't play as well. That said, I could certainly see a package being centered around Gamel. The marlin's desperately need some lineup protection for Hanley, particularly if Uggla is moved, and Gamel is a big, MLB-ready bat. However, I think that in either case (with Lawrie or Gamel being the centerpiece) a player better than Salome is going to have to be the #2 piece in the deal. probably Lucroy.

I agree that it would probably take a package of this magnitude to land Johnson. I think Lawrie is the player the Marlins would be targeting as the centerpiece to a Josh Johnson deal. JJ is one of the most valuable players in baseball. He's a legit ace, young, cheap (for now) and has proven himself to be a workhorse since coming off TJ surgery (which is completely behind him now) An appropriate package would probably be something like Lawrie, Green/Lucroy, Peralta, and Gomez - maybe a bit more. I agree that the Beckett trade is not the best comp for this one because: 1) the Marlins can still afford to go year-to-year with Johnson for now. 2) Beckett's pricetag was greatly reduced because the Marlins were desparate to rid themselves of Lowell's contract. 3) Beckett had never proven himself to be as durable as JJ is, even post-surgery. he had never thrown 200 innings due to various health problems, including chronic blistering on his fingers, and had never dominated the way JJ has over a full season (except for the playoffs)

Yeah, Starlin Castro is an AMAZING defensive SS - probably top 5 in the minors. I watched video of him taking infield practice in the AFL and it was one of the most beautiful things I've seen in my life. Almost as smooth as Jose Iglesias http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

agreed. Salome/Lucroy might be asking a bit much, but Detroit should not be satisfied with Morrow for Jackson unless another, lesser piece is coming their way too . . . likely from the Brewers.

1) Maybin is going to be a good CF and if not a CF then he would be an average at best corner OF. His defense would more than make up for his offense in the corner OF spot. I don't see the Marlins moving Maybin out of CF though. I believe the Marlins will get another OF for Uggla if they trade him along with a low level prospect. So that would fill that need. The only other need the Marlins need as of right now is a 1B/3B now McGehee could easily fill in at the 3B spot for the Marlins next year. Add in someone like Cutter Dykstra and I believe you would have a deal with the Marlins for Sanchez anything more than that and the Marlins would be sending another piece over. 2) The Marlins are always looking for lower level prospects either it be pitchers or positional players. When trading and drafting it is best to pick the best available player over filling needs. I think that we are mostly in agreement aside from the fact that I do not believe that McGehee has enough value to acquire Sanchez, even if paired with a lesser prospect. w.r.t. the players/types of players that the marlins SHOULD acquire, we are absolutely on the same page (I'm not real high on Cutter, but that's not really the point). My thoughts on who the Marlins might want simply stems from rumors that seemingly have them tied to young CFers in most trades, but I guess that could be one of the reasons that they're rumors, not completed trades.

Cain doesn't make any sense for the Marlins at all. The Marlins already have Mike Stanton and Cameron Maybin both are really good OF prospects. The Marlins also have Jai Miller who is comparable to Gindl. I don't see why the Marlins would want either Cain or Gindl. The Marlins also rely more on their scouting department and will take lower level players if they like them more than what is in the higher levels. McGehee does bring to the table a very affordable contract but McGehee alone probably wouldn't net Sanchez but the other minor league player that would be going with McGehee wouldn't be a major prospect. Someone like Dykstra would be the other piece with McGehee. In principle, I agree with you on both points, however: 1) apparently the Marlins have been asking for CFers in return for some of their players. Obviously this makes sense only if it's a near-MLB-ready player. Stanton's still a not ready, and Maybin hasn't played well but will probably be given a shot to start. The Marlins still need another OF to start alongside ross and maybin, though, if they're planning on Coghlan playing 2B. A catching prospect might make more sense for them, but Salome and Lucroy are both probably more valuable than Sanchez at this point, though I could still see that trade happening. 2) The Marlins have a ton of lower-level pitching prospects and don't really need any more. Of course, I suppose you can never have too many young pitching prospects.

Even though he out-pitched his peripherals this past season, Jackson kept the walk rate more reasonably under control and still has amazing stuff. I've been a big Jackson supporter, but I don't think he has the consistency to be a top of the rotation starter - more of a 2/3 to me, but a good one. Gamel + is probably about right . . . maybe Gamel and Peralta/Scarpetta. The price might go down if the Brewers were willing to eat Ordonez and his salary, but it's only a 1-year commitment, so Gamel would still likely have to be involved.

I wouldn't trust Young outside of Petco, particularly post-injury, and I'm not as high on Latos as I am on Gamel.

I don't think McGehee would get it done. I think the Marlins would probably ask for a player like Lorenzo Cain, but would that be too much? Problem is, pretty much all of the Brewers' 15-25 prospects are lower-level pitchers, which the Marlin's don't really need, and I'm not super excited about Gindl or Schafer (admittedly I don't know much about Davis). Edit: Correction, I actually do like Gindl, and he might be the appropriate trade-piece. He's gotten on base at a better clip than I recalled.

If the Brewers sign Bay, where does Braun play? I'm not as convinced that he could play RF as some on this board are. Cameron is the easy answer for the Brewers. He'd probably be the better acquisition for the Yankees too, even though the media has linked them to Bay/Holiday. Of course, the Yankees could sign both . . . For the Red Sox, on the other hand, Bay is probably the better sign. Signing Cameron and shifting Ells to LF would make for an incredible outfield defense, and most of the metrics would probably say it makes the team better, but without Bay Youkilis would be the only power hitter in the middle of the Sox lineup.

I'm not trying to pick on you, but I'm just confused. Why do people keep mentioning Gamel and McGehee as being essentially interchangeable. Gamel is a VERY good hitting prospect and has significant value both to the Brewers and in trade. McGehee, right now, is nothing. He may have value to the Brewers if he plays well again next season, but I can't imagine his trade value right now being very far above 0. His age, underwhelming minor league performance and lack of top-prospect pedigree are major red flags given that his career MLB stats represent such a small sample size. Gamel is younger, has top-prospect pedigree, and RAKED in the minors, suggesting that he will play better at the MLB level than his current small sample of stats. There really should be no mention of the two in the same sentence at this point, other than to note that they are both options for the Brewers at 3B for next year.

Yeah. Bowden doesn't have great velocity. He sits low 90s (90-92?) and can touch mid-90s with his 4-seam, that he generally keeps down in the zone. I watched him pitch at the MLB level a couple times at the end of this year, and the FB didn't look great - it straightens out a lot when he leaves it up in the zone, as he did against the Yankees late in the season - but when he pitched earlier in the season and last season he was very impressive. It might just be that he was worn down - I don't know. In any case, he's primarily a pitcher that needs to hit his spots to be effective, but luckily that's what he's good at. He has a 2-seam, a nice curve, and a really nice changeup too that he works in well, in addition to a slider that he started working on this year. There was a stretch of games in the middle of this season where he had bad results, but, according to people that saw him play and pitch logs, he was throwing a ton of sliders - way more than one ordinarily would - so his stats over this stretch are a bit deceiving. Overall, he's a solid pitching prospect that should improve some, but is ready to contribute at the MLB level. he's not a top-of-the-rotation guy, but has a sturdy frame and should be a workhorse 3/4 starter. Not the guy to pair with Yo Gallardo at the top of the staff, but probably better, even right now, than Suppan, Looper, et al.

He's young, having not entered his prime years, and has 1st round pick and top prospect pedigree. I love his swing, unlike Hart's (which is way too long, in my opinion), and he's produced for extended stretches, suggesting that he CAN put his tools together. Also, his Home/Away Splits suggest that he might just benefit from a move away from Miami. On the other hand, Hermida is an inexplicably bad defender, given his tools, and Hart's offense plays much better as a RF who could play a below-average CF in a pinch. Hart has also produced at a high level over the course of a full season, suggesting that he could do it again, but I think Hart's case is one where the league's pitchers just figured out how to pitch to him. Regardless, Hermida's off the market so it's a moot point. I mentioned this in another thread, but I'd look at Andrew Miller instead. The rookie contract he signed has made him expensive quickly, and he has not yet performed on par with Nolasco, Josh Johnson, et al. I think the Marlin's decision to "give up" on Hermida suggests that they might have a similar willingness to shed Miller's contract for the right package. Probably a bit more than Hermida's given the value of pitching, but I think he could be had.

Of course you would. Everyone would consider nolasco. He's a cost-controlled #1/2 pitcher with great peripherals. Unfortunately, it's going to take a lot to get him. I'd look at Andrew Miller instead. The rookie contract he signed has made him expensive quickly, and he has not yet performed on par with Nolasco, Josh Johnson, et al. I think the Marlin's decision to "give up" on Hermida suggests that they might have a similar willingness to shed Miller's contract for the right package. Probably a bit more than Hermida's given the value of pitching, but I think he could be had.

Well, to begin, Hermida has more upside, but there are a lot of posters here that think that some package revolving around Hart can net Kenshin Kawakami or Javy Vazquez. If so, that's a good enough reason. Of course, I have personally voiced the opinion that Hart could not return that type of value, just as I repeatedly voiced the opinion that Hardy would not return a player like Clay Buccholz, etc. In any case, Hermida, but more importantly, Conor Jackson, Dioner Navarro, etc. are nice, reasonably priced pieces that should be acquired now, while their price is lowest. At the very least, these types of players will potentially have significant value at the trade deadline, or should be exchangeable for lower level prospects (in order to shed salaries)

The Red Sox just traded 2 relatively unimpressive prospects for Hermida because the Marlins were going to non-tender him. Hermida was getting expensive for a team with the Marlins' budget, but is still young, controlled, and relatively cheap; and he has the pedigree and upside to be a solid gamble. These young, cost controlled players with upside that other teams are trying to get rid of are exactly the type that the Brewers and other mid-market teams (all teams, really) should be looking to acquire. Hermida would have been a great answer to the Brewers COF situation, allowing hart to be traded for pitching. Conor Jackson and Dioner Navarro are both players the Brewers should consider - Shoppach too, though I question the validity of this rumor. As for pitchers, jenks would be good if true.

Morrow was rushed to the majors, and has been jerked around between roles since he got there. He's got a great arm, and if he can be acquired before ST, then he can probably be stretched out into a starter in time ofr the season. Otherwise, he has the power stuff to be a back-end of the bullpen guy even though he wasn't great as a closer at the beginning of this year (small sample). I think with a defined role and move to the NL he'd be a pretty solid pitcher with some upside too.

Murton's hit everywhere he's been given the chance. I like him a lot.

Boston picked up just about every injured pitcher available last offseason. The result? They wasted a ton of money. I'm not saying you can't catch lightening in a bottle, but its extremely risky. My guess is the team trades for an expensive pitcher, and then a few more pitchers. For what it's worth, Penny and Smoltz both dominated in the NL this season. The year before, Piniero was the reclamation project, and HE pitched well after being traded to STL.

Agreed, however a 4-5 yr deal for Lackey takes money away from the resign Prince fund.