Highly unlikely that he gets a raise. He doesn't have the comps to get more than $5M - he is a setup man this year (no saves), and setup men don't get $5M/year. He had a bad 2011 on top of that so what comps does he have to support $8M/year? That is a good question. I couldn't find a situation where a guy lost money in year 2 in arbitration. Especially if his stats get better. (Even though Ax went from 9th inning man in 2012 to 8th in 2013, I still think it will go up.) ... Looking at bbref, it shows Jose Valverde as a comp to Ax. Here is how Jose went through Arby: 2006 - yr 3 - 5.87 ERA - 17 SV - $359k 2007 - yr 4 - 2.66 ERA - 47 SV - 2m 2008 - y4 5 - 3.38 ERA - 44 SV - 4.7m 2009 - yr 6 - 2.33 ERA - 25 SV - 8m Ax: 2011 - yr 2 - 1.95 ERA - 46 SV - 442k 2012 - yr 3 - 4.67 ERA - 35 SV - 500k 2013 - yr 4 - 4.09 ERA - 0 SV - 5m So in the example, Valverde, while underperforming in year 3, was still given a substantial raise in his first year of Arby. He then had 2 of his best years during his first 2 years of Arby. Not the Case for Ax. But I really don't see, him getting less. I would anticipate: 2014: 7 - 8 million 2015: 10-12 million (Would be based on if he goes back into a closer role. Otherwise, he might settle out around that 7-8. Which then you are right his raise won't be huge next year, but it wouldn't be less than $1m increase)