I've always been a big fan of this series, but this year's list is nearly complete garbage once you get past the top few names on the list. At least as a Brewer fan, I can say that they probably got the 3 pitchers in just the right area. But there is definitely a big market suck-up bias happening here. By their own numbers, Julio Urias is good for +6.6 WAR total in arbitration years 3 and 4. He is #29 on the list. Freddy Peralta is good for +7.0 over the same time-frame at a total cost of 6.2 million, a complete bargain for that level of production. After that the team is on the hook for another 3+ WAR season at a bargain price at that level of production. Maybe it's Urias' extensive injury history that gives him the edge here? Or maybe it's because he's a Dodger? I've been a big Alex Verdugo supporter in the past. But they have him as being worth 8.1 WAR over the next three years, and while that is really solid it's certainly not elite. Generally using the surplus value formula = 8.1 million * 9 = 72.9 million minus what is estimated to be about 24 million in arbitration earnings = 48.9 million in surplus value. Roughly speaking, that translates to a hitter ranked #42 on the top 100 prospect list or a pitcher ranked #24 on the list. Safely speaking, the top 15 minor leaguers should all be ranked ahead of Verdugo. But sticking to names on the list, Verdugo's 8.1 WAR over three years ranks him only one spot behind Trent Grisham's 15.8 WAR over 4 years...and one of Grisham's season will come in at just above the minimum salary. Yeah, I know I should have picked someone below Verdugo, but he and Grisham sitting right next to each other was just too glaring to ignore. If you want to go pick someone below Verdugo that should be ranked higher, just go to the list, look at Fangraph's own projections in the table, and you'll find a whole bunch within seconds. This, of course, would have nothing to do with the fact that Verdugo plays for the Red Sox. And Gerritt Cole...don't get me started. We've seen these types of contracts traded before, and history has shown time and time again that what the team gets back is nothing more than a few spare parts when moving this type of contract. But history doesn't matter when it's a Yankee. This is great. Even FanGraphs is not immune to "market forces?"