Eye Black
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Everything posted by Eye Black
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Two interesting pieces of speculation I've heard/seen is that the deal may also include Victor Caratini (who typically catches Darvish) and that one piece returning to the Cubs could be old friend Zach Davies. Regarding the Zach Davies rumors, Jesse Rogers was on ESPN radio in Chicago and made the following comment: "One name I would almost guarantee coming back [in a Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini trade] would be Zach Davies." -
I wonder if it also helps the Padres that there isn't an NBA team to compete against when it comes to advertising inventory. If the primary point of paying to broadcast a team's product is the advertising rights, then it likely helps that they sort of have the San Diego professional sports market cornered.
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I will start this thread in the transaction rumors forum and move it to the major league forum when/if the deal appears imminent. Kevin Acee Tweet: Framework is all but done between Padres and Cubs. Yu Darvish could be part of Padres' rotation by end of the day. Also, here is his Article Link From the article: According to two sources familiar with the talks, the Padres and Cubs are close to agreeing on the multiple pieces in a trade that will bring right-hander Yu Darvish to San Diego. Those people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, would not elaborate on the details of the deal but said the Padres have accepted the haul they will have to send to the Cubs. EDIT: Trade is Darvish and Victor Caratini to Padres. Cubs' return is Zach Davies and four prospects including OF Owen Caissie (18), SS Reggie Preciado (17), OF Ismael Mena (18), IF Yeison Santana (20).
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Early indications are Jake Cronenworth will move to LF to make room for Kim on the infield. I also wouldn't be shocked if they end up using Cronenworth as a trade chip in another deal.
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Dennis Lin reporting the Padres are now "deep into talks to acquire Yu Darvish".
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They did, but to AJ Preller's credit he recognized it was failure very quickly, and went full steam into the rebuild the following year. They flipped any positive performing players that remained among the carnage to help build/boost their farm system. Of course they also got a little lucky in turning the free agent signing of James Shields (4-year deal) into Fernando Tatis, Jr. just 1.5 years into Shields' deal. I will also credit Preller, when he sets his sights on acquiring a player he is seemingly relentless in his pursuit. There are reports he was the one that continued to reach out to the Brewers specifically inquiring about Trent Grisham for quite some time leading up to when the actual trade occurred.
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I’m jealous of the fact the Padres can acquire a player of this magnitude and for them the phrase “give up the farm” has a very different meaning than it would for many clubs. Even after this trade the Padres are still likely to have a consensus top ten farm system in baseball.
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The Rays had a full (and fairly deep) 40-man roster before the trade, and while they obviously lose Snell they will have to add Patiño and Mejía. So either they are about to DFA someone or another trade is on the horizon.
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Here is how the Baseball Trade Values site had the trade valued at the time of the transaction.
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Also a testament to just how good the Padres farm system is, they acquired Blake Snell by only giving up one prospect considered to be among their top ten best prospects (Luis Patino is considered by Baseball America their #2 prospect). Edit: Looks like MLB.com has Wilcox as their #7 prospect, the last Baseball America update I saw had him outside their top ten. Edit #2: I was initially looking at the Baseball America midseason update, the most recent Baseball America Padres Top Ten was released this week and it had the three prospects in their top ten: Luis Patiño (#3), Cole Wilcox (#9), Blake Hunt (#10)
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I agree it’s hard to argue from the Padres point of view. They want to make a serious run at the Dodgers and the rest of the NL, so this trade makes a lot of sense for them right now. The Padres are setup for a strong window of contention over the next few years and with Snell under contract for three more years this trade significantly improves their team over the short-term.
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Per Jeff Passan: BREAKING: The San Diego Padres are finalizing a trade to acquire former Cy Young winner Blake Snell from the Tampa Bay Rays for prospects. The prospective deal that would send Blake Snell to San Diego would be centered around top pitching prospect Luis Patiño, sources tell ESPN. Also in the deal, as @dennistlin reported, would be catcher Francisco Mejia, pitcher Cole Wilcox and Blake Hunt, a young catcher.
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Shortstops close to free agency
Eye Black replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I agree regarding this year’s free agents, I think it’s reasonable to believe that Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons (and Didi Gregorius) may not get big long-term offers this offseason somewhat in part due to the shortstops potentially available on the horizon. -
It is sort of amazing this is the class of shortstops currently scheduled to be available in free agency following next season. 2022 Free Agent Shortstops: Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa The following year Trea Turner is also slated to become a free agent. The Brewers likely view Luis Urias as their shortstop of the future, but it’s tough not to get a little excited looking at that free agent class. With the market flooded with so many top end options, I am curious to see how it effects the players ability to secure large multi-year deals. All of them will get paid, but it’s sort of tough luck to hit the market at the same time as several other high end options at the position. With just one year of control remaining Lindor has received the majority of the potential trade headlines (as he should), but we could certainly see Trevor Story available as a trade candidate this season in his final year of team control as well. Is there any chance one of those players end up in a Brewers uniform on their next contact?
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I’m not sure either pitching prospect is a great return. I would certainly bet against Crowe becoming an impact MLB arm, and I don’t know enough about Yean. Baseball America had Yean ranked #8 in the Nationals system and Crowe ranked #10. That’s in a system that many are now ranking below the Brewers farm system. The return isn’t nothing, but I also don’t think it’s on par with guys like Kelly or even Small. I’m not even suggesting it was something the Brewers should’ve done, just that I think the Nationals picked up a potentially solid switch hitter for a return I don’t believe is as impactful as apparently some others do. I could certainly be wrong, and time will tell. I’m fairly certain I’m higher on Bell than most, and I do fully understand the arguments against him. As others have pointed out there are serious flaws, but he’s also shown glimpses of elite hitting ability that’s hard to totally give up on.
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I’m always a little skeptical regarding the concept of “lineup protection”, but I do think being surrounded by better hitters could give Bell a boost in Washington.
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I know his track record is spotty, but I think it’s worth betting on Josh Bell to bounce back a bit. Good move for the Nationals, IMO. Also, not a surprising move given the Pirates situation, but it is sort of wild how the NL Central teams have mostly subtracted from their rosters this so far this offseason. Happy Holidays everyone!
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2021 ZiPS Projections [Other Misc. Projections]
Eye Black replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Cubs and Cardinals WAR breakdowns from the graphics... CARDINALS Starting Pitching: 13.9 Bullpen: 4.7 Position Players: 17.3 DH: 0.2 TOTAL: 36.1 WAR CUBS Starting Pitching: 8.1 Bullpen: 1.2 Position Players: 21.3 DH: -0.1 TOTAL: 30.5 WAR -
Two points: 1) I’ve heard people who are familiar with baseball in both Japan and the United States describe NBP as a level better than Triple-A, but below MLB. So as someone else insinuated, we can consider it Quad-A. 2) Stats shouldn’t be weighted very heavily when you’re looking at someone so young (ages 17-20 seasons) that was competing at a high level where mostly everyone else was significantly older and more experienced. If you look at Shohei Ohtani’s stats from his same age range (through age 20) he had a .643 OPS at age 18, .842 OPS at age 19, and a .628 OPS at age 20. Even the most recent NPB stats for Colas are now more than 15 months ago. The focus should be on the talent rather than past stats.
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Well yes, sort of. You're looking at stats he accrued as a teenager playing in the highest level of professional baseball outside of MLB (the last of which was back in 2019). And he is reportedly a legitimate pitching prospect as well. Lastly, I don't think anyone here advocated sticking him into the center of a major league lineup in 2021.
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The latest news on the now 22 year old Cuban 1B/OF/LHP Oscar Colas who had been playing in Japan... Via Francys Romero, "Sources: Cuban prospect Oscar Colas (22) was declared a free agent by the Commissioner's Office today and he´ll be able to sign with an MLB team after January 15, 2021." Edit: Jesse Sanchez confirmed the same information above. If you check out this Tweet it includes Sanchez discussing Colas. Reminder that the way back in 2013 the Brewers reportedly just missed out in the bidding on another prominent Cuban amateur free agent, Jose Abreu.
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2021 ZiPS Projections [Other Misc. Projections]
Eye Black replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Clay Davenport's 2021 Projections are updated. Based on the numbers it doesn't appear his system is weighing 2020 results all that strongly. The Brewers as currently assembled are listed as an 85-win team and projected to win the NL Central by 3 games. The player specific projections for the Brewers are available HERE. Davenport's Projected WAR leaders on offense: Yelich - 6.7 WAR Urias - 3.8 WAR Hiura - 3.1 WAR Cain - 2.2 WAR Vogelbach - 2.0 WAR Arcia - 1.9 WAR Narvez - 1.2 WAR Davenport's Projected WAR leaders on defense: Woodruff - 3.3 WAR Hader - 3.0 WAR Lindblom - 2.4 WAR Burnes - 1.9 WAR Peralta - 1.7 WAR Williams - 1.4 WAR Suter - 1.3 WAR Houser - 1.3 WAR -
Via Jon Heyman this morning: Luis Castillo as well as Sonny Gray is being discussed in trades. Asks are appropriately high for young frontline starters. The Reds went for it last winter (and were rewarded with a playoff spot) but the belt tightening this winter is clear. I assume his young frontline starter remark was directed at Castillo since Gray at 31 years old wouldn’t exactly be considered “young” by baseball standards. Even Castillo is 28 years old which isn’t old, but is probably bordering on passing the “young” threshold.
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I think the Brewers would have to likely "overpay" in terms of what the Baseball Trade Value site currently lists. I think Turang or Mitchell would be a must, and then probably the second prospect among the Brewers next tier down. One other commodity piece the Brewers have to deal is the comp round A draft pick.
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Reports of the Reds shopping Sonny Gray and now Eugenio Suarez seem to be gaining steam. There is a report they are also listening on Luis Castillo, but as far as them trading him I would categorize it under, "I'll believe it when I see it". I know trading within the division is tricky, but Suarez or Gray would add a big boost for the Brewers, especially Suarez. Eugenio Suarez is under contract for 4 more years at around $11 million per year (with a team option for 2025). If the Reds would be willing to engage the Brewers on him, Suarez might be the perfect fit for the Brewers in terms of current need. If the Reds are solely focused on getting back major league ready talent than the Brewers probably don’t have what it takes to make a match with the Reds on Suarez. The Brewers probably have enough talent at the very top of their farm system to match Suarez’s trade value, but it would likely require one of their best two prospects (Turang or Mitchell) being included.
