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Eye Black

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Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    It appears the ZiPS projections have the currently constructed Brewers as an 81 or 82 win team. Sort of shows just how important this off-season is since there are glaring areas where they could improve upon these projections. The ZiPS graphics are certainly flawed, especially at this point in the off-season and without even a finalized answer on the DH, but this is the breakdown comparison between the Reds and Brewers: BREWERS Starting Pitching: 12.8 Bullpen: 5.7 Position Players: 16.3 DH: 0.9 TOTAL: 35.7 WAR REDS Starting Pitching: 14.6 Bullpen: 4.9 *projection prior to trading Iglesias Position Players: 12.2 DH: 0.5 TOTAL: 32.2 WAR EDIT: The bottom of the article clearly states not to do the exact thing I did above by adding up the projected WAR on the graphics to assess team WAR, so remember it's a VERY imperfect practice and one that's frowned upon by the FanGraphs folks.
  2. Eye Black
    Will Sammon of The Athletic put out this piece yesterday that looked at seven position players that could be options for the Brewers in free agency, Which free agents are realistic targets for Brewers and fill their needs? Included in the players discussed as possibilities for the Brewers are Tommy LaStella and Didi Gregorius. One player not mentioned in Will’s article that I think remains an outside possibility is Marcus Semien. There have been reports that teams have asked Semien about his willingness to play 3B (which sounds like something the Brewers would do), and I think the shortstop market is going to be depressed this offseason by the fact only small markets really have a glaring need at shortstop (Reds, A’s). The Angels were in the market for a shortstop, but they traded for Jose Iglesias to fill their need. Next year star shortstops Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager are expected to be available as free agents as well as other good shortstop options like Trevor Story, and Trea Turner will hit the market the following season. I think there is a chance Semien’s market won’t be as strong as he hoped for and he settles for a one year deal (similar to Gregorius last season). Now whether the Brewers would be willing to pony up $14-$16 million for a one year deal with Semien is something we can debate, but I don’t think it’s completely out of the realm of possibilities.
  3. Eye Black
    Beloit surviving this MLB takeover of the minors with an upgrade to High-A sort of reminds me of when Rutgers was invited to join the Big Ten. At the introductory press conference the Rutgers president said something along the lines of: "let me be very clear, this is the best possible thing that could've happened to Rutgers University"... they sort of acted like they had just won the lottery and it seems similar for Beloit in this case. As someone who has previously been at Beloit opening nights in the freezing cold with less than 50 spectators in the park it's going to be sort of amazing to now watch High-A competition in their brand new ballpark. Their new stadium that was approved just in the nick of time literally changed the course of affiliated baseball's likelihood to remain in Beloit.
  4. Eye Black
    Note that the Duquette proposal is Davis OR Gimenez, not both. I too would be more interested if it was both... Yeah, if it was both then I think the Brewers probably make that trade. If it's just one then I don't think it's a good match for the Brewers as others have mentioned.
  5. Eye Black
    I am really looking forward to watching High-A baseball in Appleton and Beloit going forward. It will probably take a little getting used to at first remembering Carolina is now the Low-A affiliate, but a good change for those that follow Midwest League baseball. Also a much better situation for the Brewers now having Nashville back as their Triple-A affiliate.
  6. Eye Black
  7. Eye Black
    Here is the full list of invites reported by Baseball America:
  8. Eye Black
    As expected it is: Triple-A: Nashville Double-A: Biloxi High-A: Wisconsin Low-A: Carolina
  9. Eye Black
    Im a bit surprised at this as the Keys provide a great experience and have good community support. Also helps they are an hour from Baltimore and would receive more rehab appearances than AA Bowie, which was closer to Baltimore. Baseball America is also speculating that Frederick will be used as a back-up plan if other teams decline their invites to become affiliates: The addition of Frederick to the MLB Draft League also provides a pair of “parked” teams for MLB that could fill in any holes that come open. There is no guarantee that all 120 invited teams will end up signing the Professional Development License contract. If not all do, Trenton and Frederick have two viable facilities in convenient geographical situations that provide back-up plans in the case any East Coast team declines to sign.
  10. Eye Black
    This was from Ballpark Digest last night: MLB teams will announce affiliates beginning tomorrow. Guidelines from commissioner's office call for terse, two-[paragraph] releases announcing 4 MiLB teams offered a PDL--no praise for the affiliates.
  11. Eye Black
    We should learn a lot more about this by the end of today. First news of the day is Baseball America reporting that the Frederick Keys will become the sixth member of the MLB Draft League. Some had previously speculated Frederick would be the Orioles Double-A affiliate.
  12. Eye Black
    Hader proposal from Jim Duquette...
  13. Eye Black
    According to the MLB Trade Rumors article on this subject these comp picks can only be traded during the regular season? That’s the first I’ve seen that reported, it obviously hasn’t been the case in the past. It would obviously increase the likelihood that the pick remains with the Brewers. From the article: These draft choices can be traded, which means the order listed above isn’t necessarily set. However, these picks can only change hands during the regular season, and they can do so just once. I’ll remain slightly skeptical until I see that change more widely reported.
  14. Eye Black
    He has since walked that back to the point I will be shocked if he signs a one year deal.
  15. Eye Black
    So how do we feel about starting pitchers heading to the plate next season after many won't have swung a bat in > 18 months?
  16. Eye Black
    At least until they deal it. That pick may not last the week LOL. I hope they keep it, but the trade value of that pick likely exceeds the trade value of any prospect they have outside of maybe their top 5 or so currently in the farm system. Last year's #33 overall pick had a slot value of $2.202 million, so beyond the value of picking at that spot is the fact a team could use part of the money allocated to the pick (plus an overage of up to 5%) to leverage draft prospects to fall to their other picks. It's a strategy that carries risk, but one that some teams have successfully deployed in the past.
  17. Eye Black
    It could change slightly. If a player turns down the qualifying offer from a team that receives revenue sharing and then signs for >$50 million the team that lost the player will receive a pick at the end of the first round. So for instance if Trevor Bauer signs with anyone other than the Reds for a total compensation package exceeding $50 million (highly likely) then the Reds would get the #30 overall pick in next year's draft which would bump the Brewers down a spot. Below is what the draft order currently looks like. First Round: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates 2. Texas Rangers 3. Detroit Tigers 4. Boston Red Sox 5. Baltimore Orioles 6. Arizona Diamondbacks 7. Kansas City Royals 8. Colorado Rockies 9. Los Angeles Angels 10. New York Mets 11. Washington Nationals 12. Seattle Mariners 13. Philadelphia Phillies 14. San Francisco Giants 15. Milwaukee Brewers 16. Miami Marlins 17. Cincinnati Reds 18. St. Louis Cardinals 19. Toronto Blue Jays 20. New York Yankees 21. Chicago Cubs 22. Chicago White Sox 23. Cleveland Indians 24. Atlanta Braves 25. Oakland Athletics 26. Minnesota Twins 27. San Diego Padres 28. Tampa Bay Rays 29. Los Angeles Dodgers **Compensation picks for qualifying offer free agents that signs with new club for over $50 million and previously played on club receiving revenue sharing. First Supplemental Round (in between first and second rounds): Marlins Tigers Brewers Rays Reds Twins Second Supplemental Round (in between second and third rounds): Pirates Orioles Royals D-backs Rockies Indians Cardinals Padres The Astros will make their first pick in the third round.
  18. Eye Black
    Question for the group... If the Yankees called today and offered a 1-for-1, Hader for Clint Frazier deal would you take it? I know the answer for most would’ve been an easy no in the past, but it seems their value might not be that far apart as it currently stands. Edit: Sort of amazing that Hader is only 152 days older than Frazier. At 26, both should in theory still have a lot of baseball still in front of them. Frazier has one more year of control than Hader. I would probably make the trade if there aren't other comparable/better offers on the table.
  19. Eye Black
    It’s very early in the offseason (obviously), but if you ranked the Central division teams (AL and NL) in terms of [positive] moves/acquisitions made thus far the Royals are currently near the top. He’s 35 in April, but Santana’s ability to switch hit and post high OBPs should continue to make him a valuable hitter. Seems like a good signing for the cost/commitment.
  20. Eye Black
    The fact that the DH is clearly being withheld to use as leverage in labor negotiations rather than a decision based on what is actually best for the sport sort of sums up everything we need to know about the current state of MLB.
  21. Eye Black
    From JJ Cooper: Hearing from a significant number of sources that the MLB is expected to send out of the 120 invites on Wednesday. As always in this story things could change, but that is the expectation.
  22. Eye Black
    From JJ Cooper of Baseball America: It's been a weird year, but the #Rule5Fever remains. We're bumping our preview from 10 names (pitiful I know) to close to 50. It's being edited now. Will be up shortly. More names to come. A ton of Dodgers are on the list. Translation: The Dodgers have good prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft. EDIT: Here is the Baseball America article, 2020 MLB Rule 5 Draft Preview Version 2.0 It includes write-ups on the following seven Dodgers prospects (by far the most of any team)... Marshall Kasowski, RHP Brett de Geus, RHP Shea Spitzbarth, RHP Jordan Sheffield, RHP Omar Estevez, 2B Cristian Santana, 3B Cody Thomas, OF The only Brewers prospect included in their list of 50 Rule 5 eligible players to watch is catcher Payton Henry.
  23. Eye Black
    It appears the same team (Angels) that essentially sold off a first round draft pick via a trade last December has basically purchased a closer via trade this season. It appears to be a good move for the Angels. For the Reds I wonder if this is truly just a salary dump, or if it is in conjunction with another separate move to acquire a different (less expensive) reliever. The Reds have seemed pretty intent on trying to become a slightly above average baseball team the past two years.
  24. Eye Black
    Unless the PTBNL is someone impactful, this is further bad news regarding the trade market for relievers that are getting expensive.
  25. Eye Black
    Sign me up for Joc Pederson as a platoon partner with Avisail Garcia. Pederson's average exit velocity last season was 93.0 mph which was in the top 4% of the league. Joc versus RHP and Garcia versus LHP would both project to be very solid 5th hitters.
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