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Eye Black

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Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    In the past the Street & Smith farm system rankings and analysis have been done by Brian Sakowski of Perfect Game. Is that the case this year?
  2. Eye Black
    PIRATES
  3. Eye Black
    I am starting to get the sense both sides really like cake and want to eat it as well.
  4. Eye Black
    Six years of team control is a long time, and it often includes the heart of a player’s prime years of production. I would be curious to know if the players union would trade the opportunity to reduce years of team control if it meant in exchange that long term free agent contracts included less guaranteed money? For example what if teams had just four years of player control, but free agent signings were only guaranteed their initial signing bonus along with their annual contracted dollar value for seasons in which they remained on the 40-man roster. In that type of scenario teams could cut players and rid themselves of the financial commitments for players no longer deemed valuable to the team (or at least as valuable as their remaining contract amount). I don’t think the players union would ever agree to it especially since veterans have a disproportionately heavy influence within the PA, but it would give younger players the opportunity to find fair(ish) market value much earlier in their careers.
  5. Eye Black
    Something I appreciate about the current FO is I don’t think “pick-up and pray” is ever likely the plan in free agency. They seemingly take a chance on pitchers they think would benefit from areas such as alterations with their development of a pitch, a change in usage of a specific pitch, or adjustments to their overall pitch mix. It may or may not prove successful, but if they sign one of those rebound candidates it’s likely because there is something they’ve identified that they believe can be improved.
  6. Eye Black
    A few more starting pitchers I could see being traded either now or before the trade deadline... Robbie Ray (2 years remaining on contract) Zack Greinke (may look to move a portion of his salary) Zack Godley (had a down year but maintained a decent FIP and was very good two years ago) Zack Wheeler (1 year remaining on contract) Marco Gonzales (Mariners FO claims they aren’t likely moving him due to control, but we’ll see) Ross Stripling (good pitcher that may get squeezed out of a starting role in the Dodgers rotation, especially if they add more SPs) By the way a completely random note, I just realized the Marlins still owe Wei-Yin Chen $42 million over the next two seasons... huh.
  7. Eye Black
    So far ZiPS projections have been unveiled for two NL Central teams. Below are the ZiPS WAR projections by position for the Cardinals and Reds. CARDINALS REDS
  8. Eye Black
    That seems like a very reasonable deal for Miley. The Astros do a nice job stockpiling starting pitchers, I will be interested to see if he continues on his current trajectory of recent success while in Houston.
  9. Eye Black
    The Lorenzo Cain rumors started on January 4th last year and it seemed a little far fetched at the time. Then it came to fruition three weeks later. Sometimes the moves come out of left field, and sometimes they are things that have been speculated about via Twitter and other mediums. Regarding Stearns being involved in all kinds of different discussions/potential moves, I think that has pretty much been universally accepted as his (and the front office’s) modus operandi at this point.
  10. Eye Black
    I will likely alter these predictions when Spring Training starts since more of the free agents and trade targets will have landed with clubs, but this is where I would predict things currently: Cubs - 90 Brewers - 88 Cardinals - 88 Reds - 81 Pirates - 77 As others have mentioned I think the National League on the whole is going to be tough sledding this season, and the Central is easily going to be the best division top to bottom. If Kris Bryant proves fully recovered and healthy I think the Cubs are still likely the most talented offense from leadoff through the #8 hitter. The Brewers have definitely closed the gap and the Reds have a nice looking offense, but the Cubs are still a slight step above, IMO. I do think the pitching is where the Cubs could see the biggest swing in results. They have big question marks in both their rotation and bullpen. They could get nothing from Darvish and Hamels, or they could be borderline All-Stars. I think Goldschmidt is going to absolutely rake in St. Louis this season and Jack Flaherty is on the verge of becoming a front of the rotation type arm. I think the Cardinals achilles heel is going to be their defense which brings me to one of my favorite photos... I actually think the Reds have pieced together a decent rotation, but could still use additions to their bullpen. Offensively they are going to be fun to watch (when they aren’t playing the Brewers). The Pirates have some good arms in the rotation and the bullpen, but I am not confident in the Pirates to score runs this year.
  11. Eye Black
    The individual (Paul Crane) that originally reported the Keuchel rumor connecting the Brewers now says the Padres are “trying to get in on Keuchel.” (Link)
  12. Eye Black
    I agree, I think sometimes in the offseason we forget how likely it is that the team will use a double-digit number of starting pitchers during the season. I linked to the audio in a thread last year (LINK) where Kevin Goldstein of the Astros was on a podcast in which he said every year the team’s front office assumes they are going to need a minimum of 9-10 starting pitchers for the upcoming season.
  13. Eye Black
    Wow, that would be great!... but this might also be a good time to point out that extreme outliers likely won’t be counted in the final tabulation.
  14. Eye Black
    I love the logic of looking at last year’s total division wins as a guide! The one admittedly anecdotal counterpoint I would make is that it seems like the National League on the whole will have slightly more competitive this season. Still, I think something near last year’s total wins is realistic.
  15. Eye Black
    Keuchel questions sustainability of bullpenning via MLB.com (direct quotes are bolded):
  16. Eye Black
    There has been on-going discussion specific to the current projected standings hosted at Fangraphs (thread link), but I thought we could take the discussion a slightly different direction. Post your own predicted order of finish for the NL Central in this thread along with your predicted win totals for each team. I will leave the thread voting open until the end of February at which time I will average everyone’s predicted win totals for each team in order to come up with our own BF.net projected standings for the division. Feel free to include discussion of the projected standings as well, I will sift through and find everyone’s predictions. Below is a template for how simple your vote can be listed. For your vote to count we just need the team names and predicted # of wins for each. This example template was done using Clay Davenport’s current projected standings (as of 1/26): Voting Example Cubs - 88 Brewers - 87 Cardinals - 86 Reds - 80 Pirates - 76 One reminder, each team in the NL Central has to play the other four teams in the division a total of 19 times each (76 total games within the division). I mention this since it would be difficult to end up with a scenario where there are 3+ teams at or above the 90 win mark unless you think other teams in the division are going to be very bad. Lastly, feel free to edit your own predicted standings at any point over the next month, the voting portion of this thread will end at midnight on Friday, March 1st. I won’t collect the data before that point, so you will be able to make changes up until the deadline.
  17. Eye Black
    As others have noted the Fangraphs projected standings do not yet have the ZiPS projections factored in. The current standings are based on Steamer projections, but will eventually also include ZiPS. Dan Szymborski is the proprietor of the ZiPS projections. ZiPS data has not yet been released for the Brewers. In his Fangraphs chat today Dan added the following:
  18. Eye Black
    MLB Trade Rumors: Mets to sign Justin Wilson Starting a thread on this signing for two reasons... 1) I think he’s a very solid lefty reliever, and the Mets are piecing together a nice bullpen this offseason. 2) He didn’t re-sign with the Cubs, and I believe losing Wilson from the bullpen is going to be a blow. Wilson was better against lefty batters last year than both of the Cubs two remaining southpaws out of the bullpen, Mike Montgomery and Brian Duensing.
  19. Eye Black
    Brewers sign C/1B Skyler Ewing to a minor league deal. Skyler was initially signed by the independent baseball team known as the Milwaukee Milkmen who Tweeted the news of the Brewers' transaction. More information on Ewing is available via Brew Crew Ball.
  20. Eye Black
    https://youtu.be/hblPkuJRZOo
  21. Eye Black
    From Minneapolis reporter Darren Wolfson... Some background on Robert Murray's scoop yesterday on the Twins making Yasmani Grandal an offer before he signed with Milwaukee: They did, and it was for multiple years in the $13M/year range. Talks never gained traction, unfortunately. But the Twins definitely tried.
  22. Eye Black
    Huh, I knew the Brewers were bad at challenges, but I didn’t realize their 20% success rate (7 of 34) was the worst across all of MLB by 15%. Over half of MLB teams were at or above a 50% success rate on challenges. The Royals (75%), Yankees (74%), and Giants (74%) were excellent at challenging calls apparently.
  23. Eye Black
    I’m a little surprised Lance Berkman received just 1.2% of the vote and has now fallen off the ballot in his first year of eligibility. I don’t know if he is a Hall of Famer, but he should have been given a couple of years to be considered more seriously, IMO.
  24. Eye Black
    It says he had four multi-year offers from the Mets, White Sox, Twins and Angels. No specifics (years or dollars) were given. Maybe he wanted to win, and saw the Brewers as his best shot at doing so... In the article he is quoted as saying he did his homework on the teams he could possibly go to and the Brewers kept coming out at the top of his list. He said he wanted to go to a team where he could help maximize their success. He also said the ballpark factored into it, saying he “loves” hitting at Miller Park and is looking forward to getting away from playing his home games in pitcher friendly ballparks (San Diego and LA).
  25. Eye Black
    From the Brewers standpoint I think this whole situation proves the old adage to be true...
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