With the trade-deadline approaching, I'm checking in on the longer-term plans for the division.
The Cardinals rotation can't ALL be healthy the WHOLE season, can they? That rotation was put together to contend THIS season, not next. I have to think they're looking for rentals and perhaps try to sign a couple free agents this off-season. They're in pretty good shape, salary-wise. Other than Arenado, Contreras, and Gray, no one else is committed long-term, but they are currently merely $1M shy of last season's record high opening day payroll.
The Cubs are in a weird spot, both now and in the off-season. I understand that they are committed to a number of players for the foreseeable future, but should they be? If I'm Hoyer, and I'm punting on 2024, I think I would consider a more significant re-build. Not because they need more prospects or young players as much as they just need different players. Their lineup is filled with decent or better starting major league players, but obviously, the combination of players isn't working. Replacing Wisdom, Morel, one of their outfielders. They need a catcher badly. I just don't see a bunch of winners there. Both Taillon and Hendricks are signed through 2026. At $214M, they are currently sporting their record-high opening day payroll.
The Reds need more pitching and to get healthy. I have to think they'll be better next season no matter what. They are $36M under their record high opening day payroll in 2019.
The Pirates rotation is scary good at the top, but any sort of injury issue there, and what else can they lean on to scratch out wins? A good bullpen, I guess. They are $14M shy of their record-high opening day payroll in 2016.
The Brewers have been beat-up with a below-average starting rotation all season, and their bullpen hasn't been lights-out, but their lineup has been collectively strong. It is hard for me to imagine that the Brewers won't be better in 2025. William Contreras and Megill are the only significant pay increases next season as they will be in their first arbitration season. They are currently $28M under their record high opening day payroll from 2022.