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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    Not really, considering a one to two year injury is far more likely for a SP than a career ending injury. With a long term deal you are risking more overall, but you also have more opportunities to get a return on your investment. The only reason this type of short-term deal works for the Dodgers is because it is better for luxury tax manipulation. It's still going to be a disaster for them though.
  2. SRB
    Willing to bet Ozuna will put up a higher fWAR than Trevor "Sticky Fingers" Bauer in 2021.
  3. SRB
    Could be good value. I don't think this has anything to do with Hiura. I think it has to do with Stearns predicting that there's going to be an NL DH, and if there is our in-house options are really not adequate.
  4. SRB
    Some things our brains don't allow us to remember
  5. SRB
    I could be wrong about how the luxury tax actually works, but if it is true that the Dodgers were under the luxury task last year, then for the Dodgers to match a 2/$30M offer by the Brewers, it would cost them about $10M in penalties plus the lower draft pick. Without Turner Bauer = ~35M over, at 32% (20% + 12%) = $11.2M With Turner at $15M AAV Bauer + Turner = ~50M over, at 42.5% = $14.9M + $6.4M = $21.3M And that's assuming they can get under the payroll tax in 2022 despite Bauer's huge salary. So do the Dodgers value Turner at 2/$40M, or 3/$55M?
  6. SRB
    I hope you're right, but I'm torn on if I think that's the case. Initially I believed that also, but now that they're over the luxury tax threshold anyway I'm not sure it matters to them much if they have to pay a 20% tax on Turner's 2021 salary. They'll need to maneuver away from any long-term commitment to Turner since they'll want to reset from the escalating penalties in future seasons, but I don't think it totally rules out that they would offer a high AAV 1-2 year deal to Turner. Seems to be more steam for Ozuna possibly ending up back with the Braves, so maybe the Brewers do indeed become the front-runner for Turner. The Dodgers don't have a lot of money committed to 2022 and beyond (other than Betts). So they have LOTS of flexibility to get under the luxury tax in 2022. I think the Dodgers will soon announce the re-signing of Justin Turner as well. I don't think teams are allowed to evade the luxury tax that way, are they? I think that's why it uses AAV. Edit - nevermind, I see you said "in 2022"
  7. SRB
    I disagree completely. They've limited their damage to three years at most (assuming things don't go well). If Bauer has a terrible year or is injured then they are stuck with >$100M. If Bauer has an excellent year then he is gone and will be looking for a bigger contract, given his age. All of the risk is on Los Angeles. For a mid-rotation SP.
  8. SRB
    They were over according to Cots, but who knows how accurate that is since the luxury tax also incorporates complicated benefits-related stuff, and I'm not sure if the Covid season changed things. It seems like if they spend any more money and go over by >$40M then it won't even matter if they are a second-year offender though, in terms of the penalty. If they were under last season (or if 2020 is not counted, since they were under in 2019?) then spending any more money would have a much bigger impact, as they would go from 32% (20% + 12%), to 42.5%. (No idea of I'm calculating any of those correctly.)
  9. SRB
    The escalating penalties are for consecutive years over the threshold. Once you go over it you might as well "blow it out of the water" (if you have the money) in the short term. http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax Am I reading that wrong that if they hit +$40M they have to pay the highest overage tax and get their next draft pick moved back? This will be their second year over, so they already have to pay 30% on most of Bauer's contract plus a 12% surtax (on the overage >$20M?), and if they spend another $5M or so they will have to pay a 42.5% tax. That is a lot of money. At the very least it might even out the odds of Milwaukee being able to best the Dodgers' offer. Actually, maybe it is: Currently with Bauer putting them around $35M over they will have to pay 30% (second year over) + 12% surtax (exceeding by >$20M) = 42% But if they spend another $5M that will only increase to 42.5% (exceeding by >$40M), plus the slightly lower draft pick. So not much of a difference in terms of the penalty rate. So you may be right that there's no real difference at this point (though they are still paying a huge tax on any additional dollar spend).
  10. SRB
    The escalating penalties are for consecutive years over the threshold. Once you go over it you might as well "blow it out of the water" (if you have the money) in the short term. http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax Am I reading that wrong that if they hit +$40M they have to pay the highest overage tax and get their next draft pick moved back? This will be their second year over, so they already have to pay 30% on most of Bauer's contract plus a 12% surtax (on the overage >$20M?), and if they spend another $5M or so they will have to pay a 42.5% tax. That is a lot of money. At the very least it might even out the odds of Milwaukee being able to best the Dodgers' offer.
  11. SRB
    That is one of the most irresponsible contracts ever. I guess the Dodgers effectively have infinite money so it doesn't matter.
  12. SRB
    Wouldn't be surprised if Mets pulled their offer because Bauer messed around too much and (I think?) he has an inexperienced agent.
  13. SRB
    I'm loving it insofar as I think this is going to be a disaster Los Angeles. (Only wish it had been the Cardinals.)
  14. SRB
    Aren't there escalating penalties that stop teams from just blowing past the luxury tax? If this is a short-term, record-high-AAV deal for Bauer, then I find it hard to believe they are still in the mix for Turner.
  15. SRB
    The symbolic end of this current Dodgers dynasty. Albatross contract and they've been passed by the Padres.
  16. SRB
    It has begun!
  17. SRB
    Hiura is a great athlete and his primary issue at 2B is his throwing arm, I really see no reason to think he won't be a decent defensive 1B. There is a massive difference between making an OF move to 1B (an entirely different defensive skillset), and moving an IF to 1B. I doubt there are many major league infielders who could not easily move to 1B. That's why you put guys like Prince Fielder and Dan Vogelbach there... It's true that height is an advantage at 1B, but Hiura doesn't need to be the best defensive 1B in the game. (And it's not like he's short. He's right at the lower end of the range of normal 1B heights.)
  18. SRB
    We might be the favorites even without Turner. The NL Central looks incredibly weak.
  19. SRB
    I assume that is supposed to say the Dodgers are still the favorites? I think it probably hinges on Bauer. If he goes to the Mets then the Dodgers have a lot of money left to spend.
  20. SRB
    MLBTR predicted 1/$10M, Fangraphs crowd source predicted 2/$30M. I think he's probably out of our price range given the risk he also carries.
  21. SRB
    Bauer signing with the Dodgers would be perfect. Los Angeles stuck with a disastrous contract and better odds of us signing Turner!
  22. SRB
    I was going to call this one of the worst contracts of all time, but I guess Fowler was actually decent the first year of the deal.
  23. SRB
    I'll believe it when I see it, but this really is a year to go for it, with the NL Central looking unusually weak and Yelich still in the peak years of his mega-contract. Plenty of AB to go around at SS/3B between Urias, Arcia, and an often-injured Justin Turner
  24. SRB
    Since 2018, Bauer is 6th in IP (433), 10th in K%+ (133), 12th in HR9+ (74), 10th in ERA- (69) & 12th in FIP- (76). Add it all up & he is 7th in runs allowed based WAR (12.6) & 6th in FIP based WAR (11.6) the last three seasons. Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom & Cole are the only pitchers over that time that beat him in both varieties. ZiPS projects him as the 6th best starter for 2021 at 4.4 WAR with the only the three active guys above plus Bieber & Giolito projected higher. No way he comes close to Cole's 9/324, but I'd guess he ends up picking between like a 7/225 deal if he wants the long term security or like a 3/120 deal if he wants to set the AAV record. Certainly wouldn't argue that he is very good, arguably an ace (though only arguably), but those stats include just two full seasons, one of which happens to be Bauer's only elite season. He's topped 3.3 fWAR just once in his career, and he's the wrong side of 30. He's basically had 1.5 seasons (2018 and 2020) in which he was anything more than a #2/#3. Plus, he seems like a nightmare to coach. I guess he is benefiting from the lack of competition in the market this offseason.
  25. SRB
    I'm not assuming it. I'm suggesting it is a possibility.
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