SRB
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Everything posted by SRB
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Hard pass on Odorizzi for me. Disaster waiting to happen. Paxton has the most upside and can probably be had on just a one-year deal, seems like an obvious target. Paxton makes the most sense to me as well. He could solidify the middle of the rotation, and still has some upside to be a true #2/#3 caliber pitcher. The guy lives in Eau Claire so it's not a stretch that he'd play for the team in the same state. Make it happen and lets get Spring Training underway. Wow, now that is interesting! Can't think of many marquee free agents who already happen to live in WI. This was probably a little overblown, but it did seem like maybe his struggles with the Yankees were made worse by the New York media spotlight. Pitching for Brewers against weak NL Central lineups makes a lot of sense for a one-year value rehabilitation campaign.
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Mets did talk to A’s on Chapman. An infield with both Chapman and Wong playing defense would be a beautiful thing. (Arcia/Urias no slouches either.)
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Hard pass on Odorizzi for me. Disaster waiting to happen. Paxton has the most upside and can probably be had on just a one-year deal, seems like an obvious target.
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What's everyone's Plan B? Spend on starting pitching? Grab another 3rd baseman? Shaw? Franco? Lamb? Gyorko? Sign Paxton, let Urias run with the 3B starting job, and sign one of the lower-tier 3B left as insurance/backup. They all have warts. Gyorko might be the best remaining but he has reverse platoon splits to what would be ideal. Franco might be good, but he might be looking for a guaranteed starting job? If they want Urias to focus primarily on SS, then the only guy left who seems like a credible everyday 3B is Franco.
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Luis Urias hit 19 HR in 73 games during his last season in AAA. He was on pace for a 40 HR season lol, how are we having this discussion? (I'm not saying he's necessarily ever going to show that kind of power in the majors, but PCL or not, to suggest that he physically lacks any power seems like a stretch)
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I'm not opposed to signing one of those guys, but I'm not sure any one of them provides very secure insurance to hit better than Urias.
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That would be a great move by the Mets. I believe in a Bryant rebound. Don't really see any chance the Brewers are in the mix though.
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Yeah I was just going to make this point. Even if he completely falls apart in three years, we wouldn't even be paying much more than we are already paying a guy like Avisail Garcia. Regression and age are already factored into what Turner is looking at in free agency.
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The Dodgers haven't even made a roster move yet to announce the Bauer signing. They are at the point where they are going to have to drop good, talented players who are on their 40-man in order to fit in any new acquisitions. It makes me think that they are perhaps working on a trade to alleviate the logjam. I'm guessing it will be two players on their 40-man for non 40-man players, which would free up space for Bauer and Turner. I would imagine the Dodgers are looking to trade David Price (who opted out last year), with Bauer, Kershaw, Buehler, May and Urias there isn't a reason to bump one of them from the rotation for David Price. Price's contract calls for 16 million per season in 2021 and 2022 (Red Sox picking up other half of his 32 million/Season contract). I would imagine the Dodgers are attempting to trade him and in order to move 32 million dollars in contract commitments may have to include some of the lower end players on the 40 man like Luke Raley, etc. Brewers get: SP David Price 3B Edwin Rios Dodgers get: PTBNL Thoughts? Not sure I would do that actually, as just based on reading things I'm not convinced Rios can stick at 3B. Certainly wouldn't mind having Price though.
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Regression is already being priced into any potential Turner contract, assuming he signs for something like $15 million AAV. If he were 30 and was coming off having a .400+ OBP in three of the last four seasons as a capable infielder, he might be looking at a $30 million AAV mega contract.
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Wasn't sure if this topic was worth a new thread, but here's an optimistic question: do you think that Luis Urias in a full-time role can be an elite defender at 3B? It's a meaningless sample size, but in 176.0 innings at 3B last season, he had a +17.6 UZR/150. Obviously that number does not seem sustainable, but if he can put up elite defensive numbers, then even if his offense is just in line with the projection systems (around a .310 wOBA), that makes him a >3.0 fWAR everyday player.
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Not really interested in spending $6+ million on what would be a fourth outfielder for us. It's debatable whether Benintendi is better than Garcia, but we already have one of the two, so either way we would be paying for both.
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The $20 Million walk.
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Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
SRB replied to TexasCheesehead's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It wouldn't take a miracle for us to be better than the Dodgers in 2021 even on paper. Just need a core of players to match the seasons they have already produced within the last 2-3 years, including Yelich having another MVP year and Woodruff/Burnes both pitching at their best. Obviously that's not guaranteed, but this is not far fetched. -
Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
SRB replied to TexasCheesehead's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Braun would actually be a very useful addition to the current team as a bench bat and backup OF/1B who hits lefties very well. I'd love to see him back in that role. Unfortunately, I doubt he would be willing to bother for the type of salary that role warrants. -
[sarcasm]Stearns: Wait a minute, who is Jordan Zimmermann? Two 'n's? What?![/sarcasm]
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Bartolo's actually not a bad comparator for a guy who fell completely of the map for 4+ years with injuries, and then returned to being an above-average SP.
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Not very interested in J.D. Davis, unless he is almost free. I wouldn't be surprised to the Mets went out and got Turner given how mad some of their fanbase is about missing out on Bauer.
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Chances are slim, but this is the same team that managed to turn Wade Miley into a solid starting pitcher after four years of terrible results, so it's certainly not impossible. And Drew Pomeranz into an elite reliever. (It's the beer and sausages.)
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I think this is a fantastic move. His peripherals were not actually that bad in Detroit. Some ugly ERAs and his strikeouts disappeared but he never had a season below 1.0 fWAR. Maybe he just needs to get out of the AL?
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Why exactly would he need a .400 BABIP to have a >.325 OBP??? Moving the goalposts. His age is entirely relevant because the premise of this discussion is how he will hit in 2021. He is an elite prospect. It is not wildly optimistic to think he will be better in all respect going forward. (And if you think he won't be, that's unfortunate because you are basically writing him off as a bust considering he is more or less moving to 1B now, where a sub-.325 OBP is a non-starter.)
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It took a .402 BABIP to get that .368 OBP. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's extremely unlikely to happen again. He was 22/23.... If you think Hiura has already passed his career peak, that's fair, it's not unreasonable, I just find it a depressing approach to being a Brewers fan.
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Yikes, I would hate to be so pessimistic that it is "super optimistic" to think Hiura will have an OBP above .325 It's not really that pessimistic. He's going to need to hit probably .250 to get to a .325 OBP with his walk rate and if his K rate stays in the 30-34% range he's probably going to need a .330-.350 BABIP to reach .250, which would be pretty lucky. He's a fairly low walk, high strikeout guy. That doesn't typically lead to very good OBPs unless there's some luck or wishcasting involved. Hiura is our star prospect who in the last normal season had a .407 OBP at AAA and a .368 OBP in the majors as a 22-23 year old. Obviously he had a bad 2020 so it is not crazy to expect him to be below average in 2021, I'm just saying it must be really bleak to think that Hiura actually being good again is considered "super optimistic." 2020 is largely meaningless to me. It's not like offense was uniformly down all over, but a huge number of established players had inexplicably poor seasons to make me take anything that happened in 2020 with a grain of salt. (And that's not just homerism because of Yelich/Hiura. It was a trend league wide.)
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Yikes, I would hate to be so pessimistic that it is "super optimistic" to think Hiura will have an OBP above .325
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Bauer to Dodgers - 3 years/$102 million (w/ opt outs)
SRB replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
A hypothetical $200 million deal is not necessarily comparable though. Bauer is not that caliber of pitcher. The reason he got such a high AAV is because this is a short-term deal, if he was asking for a long-term deal his AAV would have been much lower. Good (though riskier) deal for him. Terrible deal for a normal team. Doesn't matter for teams like the Dodgers or Yankees.