JosephC

Time to break out the Rod Allen video:

The concept of rigid innings limitations really irritates me. Seems like just as many pitchers are getting hurt now as in previous years. Has there ever been a real study performed that definitively shows pitchers get hurt at a significantly greater frequency if the "maximum 30 inning increase from the previous season" rule is violated? Or is this some baseball myth dreamed up by a bunch of baseball executives 20 years ago and has no statistical evidence to back it up? Corbin Burnes threw 145 2/3 professional innings in 2017. That would have put him at the 170 2/3-175 2/3 threshold this season (depending on if the 25+ or 30+ inning "guideline" is used). That would have put him on pace for at least 195 innings in 2019. So does spending 1/2 year in the bullpen reset him back to the level he was at in 2017? Someone has to explain to me how these "rules" work? Personally I don't think a player like Burnes should have any limitations in 2019. If he starts complaining about his arm, then back him off or shut him down. If there is a velocity drop, then back him off or shut him down. It's not like this guy has been a life-long reliever that has only thrown 50 innings per season and now the Brewers would be asking him to throw 200+. Let's look at the health and performance of the individual rather than make broad assumptions that may not apply to this individual at all. I'm not completely against innings limitations. Drafting a kid out of high school, I would agree that it's not in anybody's interest to have him go out and pitch 180 innings as a 19 year old. But Burnes doesn't fall into that group. Last big study I've seen on arm injuries were high schoolers and one of the big conclusions from that is that most of those problems happen early in the season when players try to do to much too fast and don't back off when their body tells them too. I've also seen studies in the past which has tied injuries to mechanics/method of delivery. The term "overuse" gets thrown out there a lot, mainly when you hear about 17-year-olds throwing 150+ pitches in one day. But would "overuse" apply to a 23 year old that throws 150 innings one season and then throws 195 innings the next season? Again, is there a study that demonstrates that players in this age range get injured more frequently, by proven statistical methods, if their inning workload increased by 40 innings a year rather than 30? Maybe this study is indeed out there and I just haven't seen it.

I'm all for putting Hader in the rotation. Just too dominant this year to leave him in the bullpen. Sure, he impacts fewer games by being in the rotation, but as a starter he'd be a safe bet to throw 180+ innings and the Brewers will only get ~80 innings out of him this year. For all the talk about needing a top of the rotation starter, the Brewers might already have one in the bullpen. And at this point, they will not get a top of the rotation starter from outside of the organization unless they are willing to deal Yelich. They don't have enough ammo in the minor leagues and they definitely will not be willing to make that type of investment on the free agent market. Stearns will have the entire off-season to fill the bullpen hole.

Orimoloye is not nearly the athlete that Monte Harrison is, so I'm not making a comparison in that regard. However, when the Brewers drafted Orimoloye, he fit the bill of a high potential, slow developer that would probably likely hit some speed bumps along the way. I think what Orimoloye did in Wisconsin this year showed that he was on track and still has a possible future as a big leaguer. I think he's about at the same point as Monte Harrison was following the 2016 season. I'm disappointed that Orimoloye is no longer a part of the organization.

Didn't mind giving up Lara in this deal because I don't think he has a MLB future at all. Would have preferred to hold onto Harrison. He is having a poor offensive season, but I still think as a pure bat he could very well have rated in the top 15 or so of this system. I understand why they let him go. He won't be an MLB catcher and even if he reaches his potential upside with the bat, would he provide the offense expected from an MLB first baseman? But I still would have rather held onto him rather than trade him for what is now an old, mediocre veteran pitcher that is coming off a bad month in August.

Wild card game: Hader = Opener?

Personally I would give Cain the edge by the absolute slightest of margins, and certainly wouldn't argue with those who would pick Yelich. Even though Aguilar has fell off, he still should get some consideration because he was a significant offensive force earlier in the year when the Brewers were getting absolutely nothing out of the bottom of the batting order. That being said, Cain has a zero chance of winning the MVP. Just look at big numbers across the offensive stat sheet. Hits, runs, HR, RBI, OPS...Yelich is ahead of Cain and by pretty big margins in many of those statistics. I just can't see many writers looking at WAR, and then taking Cain over Yelich when picking their Brewer player to include on the ballot. If the Cardinals make the playoffs, then Carpenter will likely get the award. If the Cardinals falter, then the MVP race is wide open.

If simply using the testosterone/epitestosterone ratio, then sample handling can impact the result of a positive/negative result. But that wasn't the only test involved here. Once Braun's testosterone/epitestosterone ratio was flagged as positive, the carbon isotope ratio was then tested to see if the source of the testosterone was naturally produced from within his body or was introduced from an external source. When both of those tests came up positive, chances were 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% that Braun was using regardless of the samples storage conditions. When the testing was detailed in articles at the time, before Braun admitted guilt, I was completely convinced that Braun was a PED user based on the science and the current technologies being used. IMO, the result was about as reliable as DNA evidence in a criminal trial. I give credit to Braun's legal team for finding the loophole that temporarily got him off the hook.

Laurenzi held the sample because it was too close to the FedEx deadline for overnight shipping. Let's say that it's your sample that has been collected. Would you rather have the sample held by the sample collector who can put it in his basement where only he and his wife has access, and that person is documented as having responsibility for the integrity of the sample? Or would you rather the sample be left at a FedEx office for 24 hours, where any number of random employees could access the sample or it could wind up in the back of a hot truck/storeroom over that timeframe? If the guy is taking it home he should have to refrigerate it and then take it in immediately when able. Not leave it in a car trunk until the afternoon on a hot day. If it's take to Fedex and get sent out first thing next morning or have him hold it for 2.5 days unrefrigerated and then outdoors in the heat, I probably go Fedex. If Fedex is trusted with chain of custody for the duration of normal shipping why wouldn't they be trusted to hold it from 6pm to 6am the next morning? If not, then MLB should hire all their own people to handle all of this. But as Plush was saying, maybe all these things he did were within his company instructions then he personally did nothing wrong (which is what we're discussing here), I just can't imagine this type of holding was the recommended way of doing it. Again, we all know Braun did it, No one is claiming innocence. The sample was not left in a car trunk for 1/2 day. Where did that come from? Maybe because Braun stated something to the effect of, "maybe the guy left it in the trunk of his car" during the infamous press conference. Bottom line is that the sample handling was done properly and the end result was correct. Braun was using and his result was a positive, and the samples collected from the other two players came up clean because they weren't using (or smart enough to be using in a way that they wouldn't get caught).

Laurenzi held the sample because it was too close to the FedEx deadline for overnight shipping. Let's say that it's your sample that has been collected. Would you rather have the sample held by the sample collector who can put it in his basement where only he and his wife has access, and that person is documented as having responsibility for the integrity of the sample? Or would you rather the sample be left at a FedEx office for 24 hours, where any number of random employees could access the sample or it could wind up in the back of a hot truck/storeroom over that timeframe?

The guy who handled the sample broke protocol and the sample should have never been tested. It should have been thrown out the day it reached the testing facilities. To make matters worse the failed test was leaked to the public. Braun was wrong in using the product but everyone involved in this process was wrong as well. This process failed at every single step. Don't sit here and pretend Braun is at fault for other people failing to do their jobs properly. The sample collector did follow the protocol of the company he worked for. The lab analyzed the sample because the collection and handling of the sample followed industry accepted practices. The protocol "mistake" was due to MLB not confirming the wording in their written protocol versus the collection agency's protocol, which was MLB's responsibility. MLB admitted fault in regards to this issue. Also, the leak did not come from Major League Baseball. One of Braun's team of "experts/lawyers" was asking various people in the industry about the process and possible errors/loopholes, and one of the people that had been consulted was the one who spilled the beans. All of this was well documented when it happened and it's astonishing that so many Brewer fans either never heard about it or just chose to ignore it. Dino Laurenzi was 100% innocent in this. The company he worked for was 100% innocent in this. The lab that tested the sample was 100% innocent in this. MLB was guilty in regards to the protocol deviation. A "consultant" contacted by Braun's "team" was responsible for the leak to the press.

Midseason 2021.

No, they changed that rule a few years ago. All players on the 40 man roster on August 31st are eligible for the playoff roster.

Now that the Brewers have made it through the tough part of the schedule, I see the mood changing here at Brewerfan over the next week+. The Reds may not be as bad as that terrible start they had, but simply, they are a bad ballclub as the 55-69 record indicates. The Brewers will likely be highly motivated for that Pirate series and I don't see things going well for Pittsburgh. I'm ready for a nice 7-2 run which should erase much of the recent doom and gloom.

Maybe something else that could be discussed in this thread is if Erik Kratz should even be on the 40-man roster. His lifetime .210/.255/.367/.622 is below Bandy's .218/.282/.365/.647. Since the beginning of July, Kratz has hit .228/.253/.304/.557. I don't want to completely discredit the guy because he does bring some quality defense (even counting the critical passed ball yesterday). But he is just awful as an offensive player. Just awful.

Probably because: 1. Considering he definitely won't pitch again this year, and it's questionable how well he'll pitch next year considering his age, it would be pretty reasonable to think the Orioles viewed O'Day as a zero value player moving forward and made dumping his contract a priority. I have the Brewer's at 90 million dollars in payroll next year and that's if they do not tender Schoop, if they tender Schoop they are likely slightly over 100 million before doing anything else. Do the Brewers have enough payroll to add another 9 million in 2019 on an old relief pitcher that missed the last two+ months of 2018? I don't think they do. 2. Do the Brewers have 2.5 million dollars in international bonus space left? The 2.5 million that the Orioles picked up in this deal seemingly moved them ahead of the Marlins as the favorite to sign Victor Victor Mesa. From what I've read, Mesa is probably a safe projection to rank as a top 75 player on the top 100 lists and possibly a top 50 player once he signs. Someone who follows the international market will have to let me know how much space the Brewers have left as that's not something I follow. But if the Brewers couldn't match this dollar amount...it's something that likely gave the Braves a great advantage when putting together a deal for Gausman.

Miley 4.91 K/9 4.24 BB/9 .238 BABIP 83.0% LOB 6.5% HR/FB 4.82 xFIP 2.23 ERA Hopefully today is not the day when it all falls apart.

Counsell did have a terrible week IMO. But in all honesty I don't think the bullpen management hadn't been that bad until the last couple of weeks. There was a point earlier where Hader and Jeffress were on a pace to rack up too many innings and Counsell wisely starting limiting their usage. Jeffress had 29 innings and Hader had 33 innings by the end of May...so were on pace for nearly or over 90 innings which is way too much. Counsell did a pretty good job getting those numbers down to reasonable levels (generally I think the better relievers should be right around 75 innings). Now Hader is on pace for 76 innings, Jeffress and Jennings are on pace for 74 innings and innings for the rest of the guys shouldn't even be a concern. Lyles should have not been in the game in the 8th inning yesterday. Another recent move that really bothered me was using Chacin as a pinch hitter to lead off an inning, and if I'm not mistaken the Brewers ended that game with Thames and Arcia never getting off the bench (please correct me if I'm wrong). But at the same time, there is a lot about this roster I don't like. The starting pitching has not been good since the All-Star break and while folks can question whether Peralta should be in the rotation or not...the bottom line is that Guerra has been totally hit and miss lately and Anderson has slid to less that mediocre levels. When looking at Miley's peripherals, I think an big implosion is imminent. The pathetic offensive production from the bottom of the order led to Stearns just grabbing bats and forcing Counsell to put a questionable looking, patchwork type defense together which probably isn't helping the starting pitching. For the record, I still think the Brewers have a 50/50 chance of getting a wild card spot if the starting pitching returns to just a "decent" level. But if they continue to sink, the roster construction will have way more to do with it than anything else.

Brewers currently have Ariel Hernandez, Jordan Lyles, Jake Thompson and Nate Orf all on the 40-man roster. Really don't see an issue if Bandy needs to be re-added to cover for the Pina and Nottingham injuries.

Stearns probably had no interest in getting a catcher because the Brewers need a catcher. It makes much more sense to trade for a third baseman when it's not needed, and then move the other third baseman to second base, then trade for a second baseman, but since the third baseman is now at second base, then the new second baseman goes to shortstop.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/standings/ You'll need to check the "Standing Splits" box right above American League.

I didn't factor in Burnes impending graduation into the #23 ranking, it included Burnes. Sure, Burnes will soon be off the list, but other teams will have prospects graduate in this timeframe as well.

Yanks were smart not to stop after the Happ acquisition, going out and getting Lynn could turn out to be a pretty decent move for them. Just wondering if Tanaka will make it though the rest of the season.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/08/12/notes-zach-davies-remain-minor-league-rehab-no-return-date-set/971598002/ See the bottom "No picnic on Sundays" part. Never dreamed that on-the-field batting practice would be so strenuous that professional athletes would need a weekly day off. That batting practice grind, what a killer!

OK, I'll admit I just tacked the "bench Braun for day games" comment onto the end of the post for reasons other than the actual day/night splits. Just sick of the guy's frequent trips to the DL for grade 1 strains and the big sucking sound that accompanies his contract. Will give him credit for making a great catch a couple games back.