JosephC

I kind of agree that the Brewers wouldn't have the right pieces in the system for Bumgarner. But I do think the Giants would go for a deal that included Arcia, Nelson, Brinson and one of the following: Hader/Woodruff/Ortiz.

Anderson is currently on the DL. Is expected back early in August but who knows if he'll really be back then? And if he is back, how effective will he be? The #1 insurance option, Brandon Woodruff, is currently on the DL and hasn't pitched in a game in over a month. Junior Guerra is on the DL but is not expected to be on there for long. But he was coming off three bad starts in a row and had an ERA over 6 in June/July. Matt Garza is up and down. Suspect that will continue through the rest of his career. That's just where he is at. However, in the three years prior to this one he averaged 23.6 starts per season so while he's not a major injury risk, he's not known for his durability either. The sample size on Suter isn't large enough to draw any conclusion. Davies could be the second most reliable starter the Brewers have right now, and he is in the midst of a 4.90 ERA, 1.46 WHIP season. I'd prioritize starting pitching and there is no way I wouldn't add one prior to July 31. Just too many possible depth issues for me to ignore. Personally, I'd troll the bottom of the market for someone like Estrada or Liriano to serve mostly as insurance the rest of this year. The cost for a pitcher like this would be pretty minimal. If he turned out to be the hot hand it could be a steal situation. If he struggles...well the cost was minimal and hopefully the rest of the starters could pick up the slack. I know Stearns has said the opposite, but I'm perfectly fine with grabbing a 2.5 month rental. That way the Brewers wouldn't have to worry about fitting him in with Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Garza/Woodruff/Guerra (and possibly Hader and Ortiz depending on how the Brewers choose to use) in 2018, and obviously the price-tag would be a lot less. Starter for depth/insurance is priority #1 and adding a reliever would be priority #2. I would probably spend more for a reliever and get the best one I could get as long as it doesn't enter into Will Smith price-tag type insanity. I'd hope to fill these two roster spots with some combination of the following prospects : Marcos Diplan, Cody Ponce, Ryan Cordell and if the reliever was good enough might consider Trent Clark. Considering I would be trolling the bottom of the starting pitching market I think that would be achievable. But starter has to be first because I think the Brewers really need to add one. If the relievers command real high prices I could live without adding another. Hughes and Drake have both been really good in June/July.

That's right. Which is why it's probably better if Stearns trolls the bottom of the pitching market for another starter and another reliever. I'm fine with trading away two or three "top 10 organizational prospects" for a starter who provides some insurance plus a good reliever that could boost the performance of the bullpen. But getting into bidding wars for these top rated starters (or a highly regarded reliever)...count me out. I do think there is a chance, considering his lack of size plus the poor 2016 season, that Oakland may decide now is the time to move Gray and will take whatever is the most attractive offer for him. However, the market won't allow him to be any type bargain buy.

Maybe half Brewer for life, and other half on DL for the remainder of his Brewer career.

It's too bad that the rumor threw both Quintana and Gray's name in there because I don't see the two pitchers as being nearly equivalent. Average WAR value from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference: Quintana: 2014 = 4.3 2015 = 4.4 2016 = 4.95 2017 = 1.5 (so far) Gray: 2014 = 3.15 2015 = 4.75 2016 = 0.1 2017 = 1.3 (so far) Three year average from 2014-2016 has Quintana as a 4.55 WAR player and Gray a 2.67 WAR player, nearly a 2 win difference per season. Even though Quintana is the player that's supposed to be stuck in a mediocre season, his average WAR value between the two sites still is better than Gray's. I will point out that Baseball Reference does give Gray a slight advantage (1.1 versus 1.0) and I consider the Baseball Reference model to be better when evaluating starting pitching. Fangraphs has Quintana at 2.0 WAR and Gray at 1.5 WAR. The thing that is the most troublesome for me when looking at the two is that Gray is 5-10, 190 and had that 0.1 WAR season last year. That is flat out scary and really hard to ignore. Obviously Quintana isn't the biggest pitcher out there but he still has plenty more size than Gray. Just throwing this out there, Tim Lincecum had his first big drop-off at his age 28 season and was pretty much completely finished when he was 30. Gray's age 28 season will be next year. Not to mention that Quintana would be controlled for 3.5 seasons while Gray is only controlled for 2.5 seasons. And Quintana's contract is not only at a bargain rate, but if a catastrophic injury were to occur the team could buy it's way out of the last two years for very little money. All that considered, I think Quintana easily holds twice at much value as Gray.

Sorry but that's a nothing package. That package has surplus value: I'd probably estimate it as follows: Ray = 12 million Cooper = 2 million Wren = 2 million Cordell = 7 million Unfortunately that only gets about 1/4'th of the way to what it would require to land a pitcher like Quintana. It might be good enough to land a plus reliever plus a marginal back end starter on the last year of his deal, but that would probably be about it.

My top offer for Gray: Oakland pick between Trent Clark or Lucas Erceg Ryan Cordell Cody Ponce And I wouldn't anticipate getting very far with that. Absolutely hate the concept of trading a big package for him and then trading him for a lesser package later on. Gray had a 5.69 ERA and 1.50 WHIP last year. I don't think the consistency is there with him where I'd be willing to take that gamble. If I trade for him it's with the strict intention that he's a Brewer for at least the next 2.5 seasons.

Garza seems like a solid hold candidate. I don't think the return would be good enough to motivate me to move him off of a first place team. The Brewers have enough starting pitching but I still question their depth. I'm very high on Woodruff's future but assuming he can step in and pitch at a high level down the stretch is questionable. Brinson and Phillips didn't exactly tear it up when they got their chance, how can we assume rookie pitchers could successfully fill any voids that might occur? Can't trade a guy like Garza now as one more bad injury to a starter could have a pretty dramatic impact on the team. I would have to get a staggering, unbelievable offer to trade him now.

The reporting that I've been able to find on this story isn't very good. Did the Ray's make him a qualifying offer or not? If so, what does the qualifying offer need to be? I've seen it mentioned in another message forum that it's 40% of the slot value. Can anyone confirm that? It looks like the only official thing about getting or not getting a compensatory pick next year is a statement from the Rays saying they expect to get the pick. Can't any of these reporters call someone in the Ray's front office (or someone in MLB's office) to confirm if they get the pick or not and the rules regarding it? I've also read that the Rays cannot use the slot money from the Rasmussen pick on other drafted players. Why? Does anyone know the rules regarding that? I could understand a rule to protect players so teams don't have motivation to pick a player in round one with no intention of signing him so they can overspend later. But in this case I would assume that Rasmussen did get a minimum qualifying offer if the Rays are expecting a compensatory pick in 2018. But that's the problem here, I have to assume a lot because the reporting hasn't been very good to this point. Hopefully I can get home from work tonight and the Tampa Bay beat writers will have made some phone calls today and all the stuff I asked about above will be answered.

Downgrading Ray's value because of possible (not definite) lack of home run potential seems to be straight out of the Doug Melvin handbook of player evaluation. So what if Ray tops out at 10 home runs per season? If he ends up OPS'ing .350-.360, plays great defense and runs the bases well why couldn't he be another Adam Eaton (average 5.1 WAR per season from 2014-2016) or Starling Marte (average 5.1 WAR per season from 2014-2016)? In those 3 seasons those two players hit a combined total of 61 home runs (Marte had 19 one year), so those players are pretty good examples of 10 home run per season players who are still really valuable to their ballclubs.

I'm getting the feeling that Stearns will go out and get a starter but will get a veteran in the final year of his deal that is currently struggling and hope that he turns it around with a change of scenery. At this point I think he will just be too hesitant to give up prospects that hold real value, so he'll just troll the bottom of the market and maybe get lucky. The Blue Jays have two of those guys in Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano. It's easy to look at Liriano's 5.66 ERA and 1.61 WHIP and conclude that he is probably worse than anything the Brewers have right now. But last year at around this same time Liriano had a 5.46 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for the Pirates, and then was traded to the Blue Jays and he ended up posting a 2.92 ERA and 1.18 WHIP after the trade. A guy like that has been around the block and has appeared in the post-season in four different seasons. I like Happ too but think the price-tag on him might be pretty high. From 2014-2017 he has a 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 3.86 FIP. Durability has been a big, big issue with him but the trading team would only be taking him on for 1.5 seasons. He's also a lefty and currently pitching well in the AL East which are two more factors that will probably over-inflate his value. Other thing is that Toronto probably won't be motivated to move him since they already have Estrada and Liriano heading into free agency and probably won't bring either of them back. Hard for an organization to lose that many starting pitchers at once. But we'll see, they should feel pretty good about Stroman and Sanchez at the top and they just need to fill in spots after those two players. Still hard losing 3 starters at the trade deadline/following off-season.

Interesting suggestion and I pretty much see it as a fair deal. Neither player has much of a track record but both have been good this year. I think the Brewers are covered without Aguilar. If something happens to Thames at first they could either put Perez there now that Braun is back or move Shaw to first, put Villar at third and Sogard at second. Hate to lose a bench bat like Aguilar but you have to give something up to get something. The biggest question would be if the Mariners think they could afford to part with one of their relievers who is actually doing a good job. Mariners bullpen has been a mess. Think the Brewer's bullpen has been a mess? Milwaukee has used 17 relief pitchers this year, the Mariners are up to 25 already. But if they see themselves out of it (currently 41-44), there is a really good chance they swing the deal because they might end up with a 5 year starter at first base...almost the same motivation as Stearns giving up a reliever to land Shaw (and more). I checked Pazos' history in the Baseball America Prospect Handbooks and this player was never a major prospect. 13th round pick in 2012. Was listed at #29 on the Yankee's top 30 list in 2016 and #28 on the Mariner's top 30 list in 2017. The Mariners acquired him from the Yankees in exchange for minor league pitcher Zack Littell. Littell is currently listed at #20 on the Yankees prospect list at mlb.com and is having a big year so likely ranks higher than that now. The book on Pazos was pretty simple, big fastball and slider but has command issues.

I might not be a fan of trading for Samardzija, but I would not deny that he would be a pretty big upgrade to the starting rotation. Take the average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for 2017, and then multiply it by two to cover the entire season and this is how the 6 pitchers stack up: -Chase Anderson = 4.7 (and likely out 6 weeks, so the number would likely be in the 3.5 - 3.6 range if he continues at the current pace when he returns) -Jimmy Nelson = 4.4 -Jeff Samardzija = 3.7 -Matt Garza = 1.6 -Zach Davies = 1.2 -Junior Guerra = -0.4 Taking the average WAR per season from 2014 to 2016 (only 2015-2016 for Davies and Guerra), and here is how the 6 pitchers stack up: -Jeff Samardzija = 2.33 -Junior Guerra = 1.6 -Zach Davies = 1.55 -Chase Anderson = 0.95 -Jimmy Nelson = 0.88 -Matt Garza = 0.68

Samardzija's average WAR values (from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs) from 2014-2016 are 2.9, 1.4, 2.7. Three year average was 2.33 WAR. In 2017 the average WAR between the two sites is 1.85. It's probably safe to continue to project him at another 1.85 the remainder of 2017. From there, I'd project him at 3.0 WAR in 2018 (average between the 2017 WAR and the 2014-2016 average WAR), 2.2 WAR in 2019 (just below the 2014-2016 split) and then 1.4 WAR in 2020 as he will be pitching in his age 35 season. That would put his value at 79.562 over the remainder of his contract. He is due to make 63 million dollars over that time-frame. So I would put his surplus value at roughly 16.5 million dollars. So if the trading team picks up the entire remainder of his contract, I think he's roughly worth one "back end of the top 100" prospect OR one good "top ten organizational prospect" and one good "role player" prospect. If a deal would be made with Milwaukee, you could bet that since the Brewers are in a small market and the Giant's minor league system is towards the bottom of the rankings, that both sides would be pretty willing to have the Giants throw money into the deal and the Brewers throw prospects in the deal. I don't buy the idea that "hey, the Brewer's payroll is really low so who cares if they spend 18 million per season on a pitcher" concept. That's easy to say when it's somebody else's money. Taking on 18 million per season for pitcher in his 32-35 age seasons is a massive commitment and it's very likely the Brewers would look to build in some type of financial cushion to lessen the impact in case of injury. It's also worth noting that Samardzija has a limited no-trade clause where he can accept trades to 8 clubs. Another hurdle to jump since the Brewers would likely be blocked. However, any further financial aspects needed to push a trade through would likely fall on San Francisco's shoulders. I would guess a deal between the two sides would look something like: Brewers get: P-Jeff Samardzija 15 million dollars (5 million payment each year from 2018-2020) Giants get: P-Brandon Woodruff OF-Ryan Cordell OF-Monte Harrison Again, I would be out on this deal because Woodruff is on my strict no-trade list. But if a deal were to happen I think it would look something like that. The Giant I'm most interested in is Hunter Strickland. His walk rate is terrible this year (5.52 BB/9) but he's still be getting the job done (2.15 ERA) and was doing a pretty good and consistent job heading into this season. The walk rate could push the price-tag down and he's a guy I'd like to have. Even if he struggles with walks he'd still be an upgrade to this bullpen, and I think it's a pretty good chance that the walk rate drops back down in future seasons.

If the Giants are smart they would sell high on Samardzija right now. His K/9 is a career high, his BB/9 is a career low and his HR/FB percent is a high 16.7 so there are indicators that he could be fairly dominant in the second half. They could probably get a really good return and be out from the rest of that contract. As JohnBriggs12 mentioned, there is talk that the Giants are seeing this season as somewhat of a fluke but I strongly disagree with that. They have the look of an old, overpaid team. Their payroll is at a record high and only Matt Cain's contract will be coming off the books. Any savings they get from him will be eaten up by a Bumgarner extension. They probably don't have much more money to spend in free agency and it doesn't appear that there is much help coming out of the minor league system. To me this looks like a total rebuild.

Doolittle is the hardest guy to speculate on, because while the numbers are excellent it's hard to get past the fact that he's only thrown 69 innings over the last 2 1/2 seasons. How can a team give up anything of real value for a guy like that? He's like a major league lottery ticket, if he can stay healthy he can be great but how valuable is a relief pitcher that struggles to throw 30 innings a year! I'd be interested in Gray. Problem is that I wouldn't be willing to include anyone from the list of Brinson, Ray, Diaz, Lopez, Hader, Woodruff and Bickford...and once those names are removed another MLB team would have no problem outbidding the remaining pieces I could put together to try and make a realistic bid. I do like Madson though. Wonder what the price-tag will be on him? As long as this year's market doesn't get to Will Smith-insanity type levels then I would be interested.

Am I reading this right - you're saying we should start trading the aforementioned prospects while they're still highly ranked/valued because that's not going to be the case moving forward in the short-and-long term? No. Just baffled by the idea that Ray is a mediocre prospect and a draft bust because he isn't currently OPS'ing .800+. If Ray isn't much of a prospect because of his current .251/.327/.389/.716 slash line, then the Brewers don't really have many legitimate hitting prospects in their system.

Quintana's stock has fallen a little bit because he hasn't been a plus-plus performer this season but he's still be a very consistent performer and even in a mediocre season he's still on pace to post a 2.2 WAR. The price-tag on Quintana should still be sky-high. I think it would take something like Lewis Brinson, Josh Hader, Brett Phillips and Freddy Peralta to land Quintana. And I think Brinson and Hader are both necessary pieces to getting a deal done. Brinson because he's the top bat in the system. Hader over other pitching contenders because the White Sox system lacks top-end lefty pitching. I can see dreaming about Sonny Gray because he was terrible last year and like Quintana hasn't been great this year. Fair or not, Gray's lack of size will play a part in what teams are willing to offer. A team might be able to get Gray at a reasonable price if the A's decide now is the time to move him and a few other attractive starters are put on the market.

Using the "Ray is a light hitting prospect" approach, I guess it's probably just best the Brewers just give up on all their minor league bats and just "go for it" right now. Ray is 22 years old in advanced A ball and his current slash line is .251/.327/.389/.716. Terrible. Erceg is 22 years old in advanced A ball and his current slash line is .248/.289/.376/.665. Wow he's even worse than Ray...probably has little chance to even make a slight impact at AAA. Diaz is 1 year younger at 21 but his current slash line in advanced A ball is .216/.317/.375/.691. Looks like another excellent sell high candidate for now, before other teams figure out this guy really can't hit. Dubon is 22 years old and was one level higher but his slash line in AA wasn't exactly eye-popping either. .276/.338/.351/.689. He was bumped up to the hitter's paradise in Colorado Springs and has only OPS'ed .613 in a limited sample size there. Speaking of Colorado Springs, how much has Brinson/Phillips/Cordell "played up" from the obvious benefit of hitting in that environment? On the road in /AA this year Phillips has slashed .258/.313/.477/.790. Sure the SLG looks good but how will that .313 OBP work in the majors? He didn't look very good at the plate in his brief time in Milwaukee. Cordell has slashed .230/.291/.381/.673 on the road this season. Already 25 years old...he's starting to look pretty worthless. Brinson on the road, .247/.333/.452/.785...alright that's a little better but a top 20 prospect for all of MLB? He looked especially bad in his brief time with the Brewers.

That's because 99.9% of the time the discussion involves a player in arbitration that has something like 1.5 to 2 years of team control left. 34 year old pitchers still due 92 million dollars aren't discussed very often on Brewer message boards. I still think for this to make any sense at all from the Brewer's perspective, the Tigers would need to pick up 40+ million dollars of that salary and I seriously doubt they'd be willing to do that.

I like trying Hader. Considering how poor the bullpen has been, it might be better to keep him there if he was pitching every other day. But it doesn't seem like the Brewers want to having him throwing on consecutive days, and lately he's only gotten an appearance once every four days. If he continues on that type of schedule, I'd rather just have him in the rotation throwing every fifth day. They were limiting him to about 90 pitches per outing in AAA, so probably could only depend on 5'ish innings per start but I think he's definitely shown enough in his bullpen appearances where he should get a MLB look as a starter.

The A's wouldn't give Sonny Gray away but his price-tag may be less than one would expect. He had a bad year last year. He's been solid but not great this year but has missed some time. His FIP is a good 3.60 but the ERA is 4.45 and the WHIP is 1.35. What likely worries most teams would be the same thing that worried teams when he was drafted. 5-10, 190. Lots of concern then about how long a hard thrower like him would hold up considering how small he is. The A's are also in a tough spot with him because they are probably not in the position to give him a long-term contract. How can they give a smallish, hard-throwing pitcher a long-term deal who was below replacement level last year (fangraphs actually credited him as being a 0.7 WAR player in 2016, questionable at best with an ERA of 5.69 and a WHIP of 1.50)? If they think he'll bounce back to a 2015 performance then he's a "hold" all the way and they try to move him for more next year. But if they think he'll stick in "good but not great" territory over the next year and a half then they could be motivated to move him now. They are 1 of only 2 teams in the AL which doesn't appear to have a chance for the playoffs so now might be the time. Also, the starting pitching market could be flooded in a few weeks: http://nypost.com/2017/05/13/why-mlb-trades-may-fly-early-with-a-loaded-pitching-market/ If so the closer it gets to the trade deadline and more teams become sellers...more pitchers hit the market and the return for Gray goes down considering all the available options. I wouldn't be all that shocked if Gray was involved in a deal something like this: Brewers get: RHP-Sonny Gray A's get: RHP-Luis Ortiz OF-Ryan Cordell RHP-Aaron Wilkerson I wouldn't do that deal because Ortiz is one of the players that would be on my no-trade list but that's kind of what I would expect with a Gray trade.

Just looking at WAR and surplus value, Verlander would have to be right around a 3.2 WAR player per season in 2017/2018/2019 just to break even with that contract. Using Baseball Reference WAR values, from 2014-2016 Verlander was a 1.1, 1.2 and 6.6. So far this season he's a 1.2 so extrapolate that to a 2.4 over a full season. It's really hard for me to believe that the Brewer's front office would have a model that would indicate he's worth 28 million per season in a small market. Strangely enough, the average WAR for Verlander from 2014 to 2016 is 2.967 and when his 2017 WAR is extrapolated for a full season it's 2.4...right in line with the 0.5 WAR drop per season that often is associated with hitters in the same age group that Verlander currently is. In this case, I don't think it would be unreasonable to apply that to him. I also think Greenleaf1 is on the money, vesting option becomes player option in exchange for him waiving his no-trade rights. Very safe to assume a team will have to pay him 22 million in 2020 if he's traded. Assuming he's a 1.2 WAR the rest of this season, a 1.9 WAR in 2018, a 1.4 WAR in 2019 and a 0.9 WAR in 2020, it would put his value at right around 51 million but he's due to make 92 million. So I have him as a negative 41 million surplus value...so at a minimum the Tigers would have to eat 40 million of the deal before I'd even be willing to talk about any prospects. Needless to say, if I called the Tigers and asked them to pick up 40 million dollars of the contract I would definitely expect them to hang up. But that's just how I value him. If folks out there think he'll bounce back and be a legitimate 3.2+ WAR pitcher over the next few seasons then he's worth giving up a few quality prospects for.

Arcia has shown his fair of splash plays and I would agree that his glove is already well above average based on the eye test, but some of the defensive stats put him more in the "good but not great" region. DRS is a +3 which puts him in a 5 way tie for 5th among qualifiers (25 total qualifiers), but the leaders in the category are between +11 and +9 so Arcia is well behind the leaders. His UZR/150 is +5.1 which ranks 8th among qualifiers. Good glove, but not elite. And while he has been very encouraging with the bat (absolutely love the way the OBP has gone up every month), he's still just a .268/.311/.392/.703 player which puts him in the 7th or 8th slot in the majority of major league batting orders. Couldn't be more pleased about the way he's been playing but I don't see a team giving up a top 25 prospect for him.

I agree that there isn't a current tier 1 player on this roster. There are some strong candidates for the future like Arcia and Shaw, but those players don't have the track record yet that would yield a tier 1 type return. It would be interesting to see what other GMs actually think about some of these players. Has Thames even been above replacement level in May/June? Fangraphs has him as a +0.2 in May and a -0.1 in June so just slightly on the positive. His BABIP in April was .360, but has been a crazy low .205 in June. He clearly isn't the superstar he looked like in April but is definitely better than replacement level. Is Knebel the next super-star reliever or just a flash in the pan? At only 25 years old he may have hit his stride and could be the next dominant reliever. On the flip side, coming into this season he was a 4.03 ERA, 3.64 FIP pitcher. A nearly 2 MPH bump in fastball velocity (from 95.2 to 96.9...some of that can be attributed to the change in how velocity is measured) likely has pushed the K rate way up and has been the difference but will that be sustainable? Personally I'm seeing him as a real deal, but would MLB GMs feel the same way, especially with how volatile relievers are and there is no solid track record with Knebel? I'm still very skeptical that relievers will go for near what they went for last year because there aren't the Chapman/Miller's to blow up the market. We won't find out with Knebel anyway because I don't see Stearns parting with him considering how bad the rest of the bullpen is. I'd guess most GMs would put Anderson and Nelson in the same group. Anderson has been a better performer this year, but both are controlled for the same amount of time but Anderson was a super-two and Nelson was not. If they continue to be similar performers, Nelson likely carries a more attractive price-tag and could actually have a slightly better surplus value over the next few seasons. P.S. - It was sure nice to make an "other" designation. I would have just called it "negative tier" because that's exactly what it is. Maybe Garza's cheap option might lift him out of that, but it's pretty questionable since he's looking worse and worse the further we get into this season (although he did OK in the last start).