JosephC

When pro-rating the payroll of the shortened 2020 season to a full season, over the last five years the Red Sox opening day payroll has averaged $203,905,850. The Brewers are at 54% of that number...$110,116,663. So this would be like the Brewers extending their star player for 11 years at 16.25 million per season. And people I know wonder why I pretty much stopped watching Brewer games a couple years ago.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35271981/sources-nfl-teams-spent-800m-fired-coaches-execs-last-5-years Complete insanity. Jokes on us though as we foolishly keep handing these guys billions of free dollars in stadium deals.

Since it's a player option, for tax purposes, the salary number applied to Narvaez is 7.5 million. Not sure if it's entirely fair to assign the entire part of the luxury payment for that 7.5 million to Narvaez since there are so many players making more money than him on the team (did Narvaez salary put the Mets over the luxury tax threshold, or the nearly 120 million they are paying Scherzer, Verlander and Lindor...Cots has them with 8 players that will have a figure of 15 million or greater in 2023), but let's just say that all of the 90% luxury tax they are paying at the highest threshold will be assigned to Narvaez. So that 7.5 + 6.75 = 14.25 million. Cots has the Mets at 325 million. With what I know about the luxury tax and the Mets as a second time payer (not an expert, may be wrong), I calculate the tax adds another 60.9 million on top of that, so the Mets payout is roughly 386 million this season. So at the most, Narvaez accounts for 14.25/386*100= 3.7% of the Mets total payroll. If the Brewers run a 115 million dollar payroll this year, 3.7% of 115 million is 4.25 million. Would it be so crazy for the Brewers to bring in a 4.25 million dollar catcher, even if only warming the seat for a stud prospect to take over (super two game), and to provide a solid insurance policy if the stud turns into a dud?

If the pro-Lutz crowd wants to bet money that Lutz will amass 150+ plate appearances in the major leagues, I would bet against that and it would take me about 1 nanosecond to make that decision.

Just a few years ago, Zack Brown was listed on the MLB pipeline as the Brewers #1 prospect, and the Brewers left him unprotected in the Rule 5 and the entire league passed on him. Granted, at the time the Brewers minor league system was considered terrible and the worst in baseball.

Payamps has just over 2 years of MLB service time and has posted 2.0 bWAR (which primarily comes from run prevention) and 0.5 fWAR (which primarily comes from the peripherals). A 1.0 WAR/year reliever is a pretty solid guy as the 4th/5th guy in the bullpen. A 0.25 WAR/year reliever is just above replacement level and will always be either the 7th or 8th guy in the pen and will always be in danger of being let go. He has a career ERA of 3.35, but his career xFIP is 4.50. What is interesting is that his ERA has been significantly lower than the xFIP in each of the four seasons he's appeared in MLB (the first two years only totaled 7 innings, so it would be reasonable to just throw those out). So if the ERA gravitates towards the xFIP over time, then Payamps run prevention will start rising which is why he's been passed around from team to team over the last couple of years. So at Fangraphs I just picked 2022 > Relievers > minimum 40 innings pitched. There were 203 players that made it through the filter. Here is where Payamps ranked on the list of 203 players in the following categories- K/9 = 6.63 = ranked 188 K% minus BB% = 10.4 = ranked 169 BABIP = .303 = ranked 60 HR/FB% = 12.7 = ranked 48 GB% = 52.8 = ranked 33 Hard hit % = 26.4 = ranked 76 SIERA = 3.86 = ranked 149 xFIP = 4.07 = ranked 136 Two of the three best numbers are the BABIP and HR/FB% ratio, which a lot of experts consider to be "luck" numbers. The K rate is awful, and is a major factor in dragging down the SIERA and xFIP. But overall, when looking at the peripherals, he looks like a marginal reliever who probably needs plus infield defense behind him in order to stick. One thing that really concerned me is this- https://www.mlb.com/player/joel-payamps-606303 Scroll down to charts and look at the Batting Average Against chart. Normally when you see this listing of peripherals, the first thing that comes to mind is that the guy is a sinker baller and owns the bottom of the zone and needs his pitches to stay there in order to survive. But he gets hammered at the bottom of the zone. I don't know if the cold zones (primarily up and away to righties, or up and in to lefties) has a luck factor at all, but overall the chart really makes it look like Payamps really needs to get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone to be successful. To me, Payamps just looks like another guy to throw in the Peguero/Junk/Varland/etc/etc pile and see which guys win the #6/#7/#8 reliever spots in spring training.

247sports is reporting that Oklahoma transfer portal QB Nick Evers is also visiting Wisconsin. Evers was in last year's class, so redshirted this year, but did briefly appear in one game. So Armstrong brings the experience, Evers brings the upside. I wonder if there is a chance they could land Coastal Carolina QB-Greyson McCall? The Badgers should have no limitations on transfer QBs they wish to pursue. Incoming transfer has no established player to compete with, and really only one other possible contender for immediate playing time. I think Oklahoma State might be in a similar situation with their depth chart, but I can't imagine many other power five schools being so short on scholarship QBs. I'm going to beat that dead horse one more time, Chryst really blew it by putting all his eggs in that Mertz basket. The fact that he did not even recruit a QB the year after the Mertz commitment was just an awful, awful, awful, awful decision. https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/transfer-portal-2023-top-QB-Grayson-McCall-quarterback-transfer-fits-Florida-Auburn-Wisconsin-transfer-portal-200380864/#200380864_3

Sorry, I forgot to adjust plate appearances, so only qualifiers showed up on the list I was looking at. Rutschman only had 470 plate appearances, but did have a higher fWAR than Murphy.

Not sure if it's already been posted, but Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs says "says the most likely outcome for him is as a reserve outfielder" when evaluating Ruiz. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/three-teams-nine-players-one-surprising-winner-examining-the-sean-murphy-blockbuster/ Worth noting that the A's GM took over in 2019, and they were a 102 loss team in 2022. Is it fair to point that out since the ownership has tanked payroll? You be the judge. I do know that all sorts of handicapped payroll teams have done better than 102 losses. So I tend to think that the experts are right on this and the A's have ridiculously overvalued what they are getting back in this deal. This package isn't just Ruiz, Kyle Muller - who MLB.com had as the Braves #1 prospect - also went to the A's in this deal, and it's possible they could see Royber Salinas as prime lottery ticket material (he had 175 strikeouts in 109 innings between A+ and A ball last year). But they are really going against what all the experts are saying. And I'll point out that these experts are not just watching 5 minutes of video and forming an opinion based on that, they get a bunch of information and opinions from various scouts and various "front office" folks. Nobody has a crystal ball and, really, if just one of the guys that the A's get back turned into a solid 2.5 WAR player, that guy should make up what they will lose from parting with 3 years of Murphy. But if this turns out to be a bad deal for the A's, they are in line for some heavy criticism because, at the time the deal was made, it doesn't appear they got nearly what they should have gotten back for dealing Murphy. Murphy was a 5.1 fWAR player last year, Realmuto was the only catcher that posted a better fWAR. But certainly nice for the Brewers to get what seems like a bargain. Especially since it wasn't looking like they wanted to throw any significant money into the position, to have a young, cheap player fall into their lap is welcome.

Only real concerning stat that I could find is that Contreras makes contact 68.4% of the time when he swings. At the MLB level, that is better than what he had done previously. But 68.4% is the 15th worst number of the 246 players that had 350+ MLB at-bats last year, so he's in the bottom 7%. Here are the 14 players that finished lower, just looking at batting average and on-base percentage- Joey Gallo = .160/.280 Chris Taylor = .221/.304 Christopher Morel = .235/.308 Luke Voit = .226/.308 J.D. Davis = .248/.340 Avisail Garcia = .224/.266 Kole Calhoun = .196/.257 Franmil Reyes = .221/.273 Giancarlo Stanton = .211/.297 Oneil Cruz = .233/.294 Patrick Wisdom = .207/.298 Javier Baez = .238/.278 Bobby Dalbec = .215/.283 Teoscar Hernandez = .267/.316 Lots of really low on-base percentages there. Maybe the Braves saw him as having a problem with getting on base in the future base on his current swing-and-miss rate.

The other thing to consider is that perhaps Contreras is overvalued. Maybe one of those guys with marginal minor league results that was a quick flash-in-the-pan in the major leagues but will end up being marginal in the majors, just like he was in the minors. But I don't see it. BA has him 6th in the Braves organization in the 2021 handbook (Braves system was rated 6th then, unlikely now where they have one of the worst systems in the minors). Seems like any concerns with him was with the defense early in his career, but he had improved and had the look of being an average to good defensive players (and still seems to be on track for that by the Baseball Prospectus numbers). He didn't hit all that much in AA, but was good before that and hit while at AAA. Obviously he has really hit in the majors. I just don't see anything that would merit saying Contreras is over-valued, sure looks to be solidly in the 35-40 million in surplus value in my book. So either Ruiz has been vastly under-valued, or the A's have just botched their evaluation of him.

Thanks for the list, some interesting out of the box thinking on that one.

If it is just Ruiz, then it's not only a major miss by the Baseball Trade Values site, but also every "prospect reporter" that puts together organizational lists. To make up what would figure to be nearly 40 million dollars in surplus value that the Brewers would receive in this deal, Ruiz would have to rank as a top 50 prospect on the top 100 lists. I haven't seen him valued like that anywhere, not even a bottom end top 100, much less a top 50 ranked.

In terms of surplus value from the Baseball Trade Values site, the A's are currently at -39.7 million, the Braves are at +6.5 million and the Brewers are at +33.2 million. Adames probably has greater value than that, and with the bulk of the return going to Oakland...they would likely be more interested in prospects. Ashby could be a possibility, but my guess would be Frelick plus two more prospects. Would be great to see the meltdown if one of those guys were Gasser to go along with Ruiz.

By Baseball Prospectus metrics, his catching was slightly below average last season. Pretty much average in terms of framing and blocking pitches, but well below average in throwing.

They are saying 3rd or 4th round for Tippmann. Shaw redshirted at UCLA, then played in 43 games at UCLA over 4 seasons, then came to Wisconsin and played in 12 games this year. He was honored on Senior Day, so it probably can be assumed he has his undergradute. Probably just figures it's time to move on with life and might as well throw his name in the draft pool. I don't think he is draftable based strictly on his college resume, but if he does something like a 4.45 40 and 38 inch vertical and has other solid combine numbers...some team could take a shot on him.

Joe Tippmann declares for the NFL Draft, will not play in the bowl game. OLine probably starts next year as the same hot mess that it has the last two years.

I'll root for Allen to do something yet But he was the #1 hyped guy by the coaching staff at the end of 2021 and Skyler Bell and Kendrick Lewis had no problems blowing past him on the depth chart, so one has to be just a bit skeptical that this guy is Big 10 starting material even though he obviously has the talent to be just that. Even subtracting Cichy's comments, one has to wonder if there would even be a spot for Allen to come back if the Badgers didn't have such a significant lack of bodies currently at the wide receiver position. I honestly don't know how Jesse Temple can call this a big win, this is a guy who seemingly did a complete free fall down the depth chart last season.

Mertz is probably really, really bumming right now. This would have been a great offense for him to fit right into. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgQ0kmHz268

Drury has 6 MLB seasons plus 1 day. Lifetime 3.6 fWAR and 2.1 bWAR. 2022 he was 3.0 fWAR and 2.6 bWAR. So for the 5 years prior to 2022, he was a 0.6 fWAR player (basically 0.1 WAR per season, or at replacement level) and a -0.5 bWAR player (below replacement level).

Jeff Brohm heading to Louisville, his alma mater. As expected, media is already mentioning Leonhard for that job. Wouldn't be that much of a surprise if he ended up there, Purdue has gotten a good look at his abilities. Badgers with a long winning streak against Purdue, Aiden O'Connell with a pitiful 2 TD/6 INT performance against Wisconsin in the last two games.

Hey Clancy- What do you think of this deal? Phillies get- RHP-Corbin Burnes OF-Tyrone Taylor Brewers get- RHP-Connor Brogden RHP-Andrew Painter RHP-Mick Abel RHP-Griff McGarry LHP-Erik Miller 2B-Hao Yu Lee

OG-Michael Furtney and DE-Tristan Monday in the transfer portal. RB-Jaquez Keyes also decommitted. He was the last of the Badgers 4-star recruits according to Rivals. The Badgers class is now down to just 8 incoming freshmen. According to McNamara, the Badgers have 15 scholarships open, 14 open if Herbig returns. Oklahoma State's quarterback has also entered the transfer portal, so both teams will be playing with backup QBs. Oklahoma State's backup, Garret Rangel, started the team's last game and was 18/42 for 178 yards, 0 TD/0 INT and took 4 sacks (at least 0 INTs, which probably makes him better than Bucky's former QB).

Rivals posted a transfer portal ranking and Mertz is #29, 5th among quarterbacks. Logan Brown is ranked #8, which is really surprising as he wasn't very impressive at all. Brown is going to Kansas, maybe he'll prove to be Big 12 worthy. Markus Allen is #95, he's going to Minnesota (ugh!). Well, maybe nothing to worry about as Skyler Bell had no problem blowing past him on the Wisconsin depth chart. Deacon Hill is #143. Safety Titus Toler has now entered the transfer portal. As far as high school recruits, they are onto a couple of defensive tackles, which is a big need after Roderick Pierce decommitted. Outside of those guys, it is shockingly quiet on the high school front, although it's a pretty good bet that somewhere between 3 to 5 of the Cincinnati decommits come to Wisconsin. When counting incoming high schoolers, the Badgers only have 3 scholarship QBs on the roster (and one is Chase Wolf, who shouldn't even count). So I could definitely see them going for a transfer QB hard to bring the number to 4, and they should be recruiting 2 QBs in the next cycle as well. I'd still argue that one of Chryst's biggest mistakes was not recruiting a QB in the class after Mertz as Wolf was one of the QBs on the roster (and it was obvious he was not Big 10 material by then) and Danny Vanden Boom was also on the QB depth chart (also obvious he was not Big 10 material). Only 5 RBs, and that includes Acker as a FB, so they likely need to go after 2 guys there. After having 2 WR decommit, they are down to just 7 WRs which is a horrible number, and with Dike, Bell, Lewis and Engram all back, it would be better to go for high schoolers here (and it seems like there are none currently interested). This has been a problem area and could continue to be so. Jon McNamara at Rivals has removed Herbig from his distribution chart. Don't know if that is a mistake or if there is some unfortunate news coming. Hopefully, if there was, maybe Leonhard's return will fix it.

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