JosephC

The biggest irony to this season - it seemed like many people in Madison disliked the Longo hire. Not because they didn't like him, not because they disliked the spread or air raid offense, but because Longo was one of those super-hot coordinators and they figured he would be in Madison one year before jumping to a head coaching job. I don't think they have to worry about that now.

The big advantage in hiring Espada is that he would have the complete lowdown on all the cutting edge cheating methods employed by MLB teams. I suspect they have become much more sophisticated than the old "bang on a garbage can" technique. Who knows, maybe he could actually get Yelich to start hitting the ball in the air again.

The biggest difference between Hiura and Chourio is that Hiura was no longer a prospect. At the end of 2019 his rookie status was gone and he was a MLB "proven" .938 OPS guy with well over 300 plate appearances. It appeared his only downside was he might get stuck at DH, but his near-masher status indicated an immediate move to DH wouldn't be that much of a problem. Chourio is young, not saying his numbers aren't impressive for the levels he's been playing at, but he's still been a .780 OPS guy in AA and an .851 OPS guy in AAA in an extremely small sample size. Hiura isn't the only recent Brewers that should make one think twice. There is also the Jonathan Singleton story. His deal was for 10 million which doesn't seem like much by today's standard, but at the time it was an "unprecedented" deal (see following article) for a player that hadn't played in the majors. We all know how that turned out. https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-prospect-jon-singleton-to-join-astros-agrees-on-extension/c-77872300#:~:text=Marc Krauss was optioned to Triple-A. The deal,million%2C according to a Major League Baseball source. I would not offer Chouria a big deal until he has a full year of MLB experience under his belt.

Couldn't agree more. This gets more and more ridiculous by the day. It started at 290 million. Then it became 360 million for a 13 year extension. Now the latest I see is 411 million from the state, 67.5 million from the county, 67.5 million from the city = 546 million for a 20 year extension. Of course, don't forget that originally Miller Park was sold to the public as a 300 million dollar project that would be a 50/50 private/public split. The original 150 million price-tag sold to us turned into 600+ million by the time the local sales tax ended. Looks like that 150 million will soon turn into 1.15+ billion. Regardless of any lease, it's a guarantee that Attanasio or whoever owns the Brewers in 2040 are going to come to us and say the stadium is now a 40 year old junk heap and it's time to forget about the last 10 years on the lease, bulldoze the stadium and build me a new one which will likely carry a 3 billion dollar price-tag by that time. But, but, but...these projects bring in so much revenue they pay for themselves. Anybody in this state that pays attention would have to be a complete fool to believe that. Just look at the Bucks and their arena. Shortly after that deal was done, MPS had their first referendum in 26 years because they needed more money. The Bucks arena has been such a financial windfall for the area that the city and county both had to raise taxes to be able to pay for what they are terming essential services. If the Bucks arena was such a great deal for the area, you could never tell by what has happened since then. It is just so unnecessary for the taxpayer to be continuously soaked by these professional sports franchises. Forbes estimates the current Brewer revenue at 294 million. There are 27 years between now and 2050. 27 years * 294 million = just short of 8 BILLION dollars. We really need to give this guy 546 million dollars? I say let that guy move the team after 2030, public is much better off IMO rather than handing over 546 million now and potentially having him and politicians gouge the public for another 3+ billion dollars in 2045 when he claims he "needs" a new stadium. This money pit is endless. Just cut the cord now!

This would have been much more interesting if pea-brained Manfred hadn't killed the August waiver trades.

If a player retires, a team does not have to pay the remainder of the salary. Fielder could no longer play, but the Rangers had an insurance policy on his contract. So when it was determined he could not play, the team went to the insurance company and made the claim, allowing Fielder to not play and still get paid...resulting in his retirement. There was some provision in the insurance contract that Fielder had to remain on the 40-man roster, and Fielder was on the 40 man roster for a couple years after he retired until the Rangers and the insurance company worked out another financial deal that allowed them to remove Fielder from the 40 man roster. As far as Strasburg, if he retires the Nationals do not legally owe him the remainder of his contract unless that changed in the latest CBA, which I don't think it did. Even if he cannot pitch, he would still earn his salary by not retiring, showing up and rehabbing his injury. It's safe to say at this point that the team doctors (and probably other doctors to provide more opinions) have concluded that he will never pitch again. Following is just speculation on my part, Strasburg demanded the rest of the contract be paid, so he could show up and go through the motions of rehabbing and eat up resources (trainers, equipment, other staff time) for nothing since he could no longer pitch and still get paid, or he would just retire if the Nationals were still willing to pay him. Either way, he's still getting paid. So the Nationals likely just decided to pay him instead of going through the false facade that he is rehabbing and may pitch again one day, and having him eat up resources that could be directed at players who can still play. Considering he spent his whole career with the Nationals, it wouldn't surprise me if there is a "personal services contract" aspect to this deal where he continues to work with the Nationals doing various, minor PR stuff for the team.

Beats Chris Davis for the worst contract in MLB history IMO, providing the early reports are correct and the Nationals will pay him the remainder of his contract. 7 years, 245 million End result = 8 games pitched, 31 1/3 innings, 32 hits allowed, 17 walks, 28 strikeouts, 1.56 WHIP, 5.69 FIP, -0.5 bWAR Not a wise contract considering the history of elbow problems and shoulder inflammation issues that he had for years before signing the deal. This guy was prime candidate #1 to have him arm fall off and it's no surprise that this was the end result.

The Brewers are such a financial windfall to the city of Milwaukee that- https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/06/22/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-proposed-sales-tax-in-milwaukee/70341845007/ So we constantly get beat over the head that the last stimulus package put Wisconsin 7 billion in the black. But the UW system gets 130 million less than they requested in funding that may grow after the political side-shows are done, the city of Milwaukee acts like they are in dire straits with their finances...and sure as anything, the only thing to debate now is how much north of 360 million the free handout will be to billionaire Attanasio and MLB. Don't extend this current lease. Let it expire....and let the chips fall where they may. Completely done with these bloodsucking pro sports leagues claiming "partnerships" are needed when all they are interested in are free public handouts to line their pockets with even more money.

I'd be pretty disappointed if I was a Vegas resident. So we'd be getting a notoriously penny-pinching owner who is building the smallest stadium in the league in what is the smallest market in the league. The Brewers billed Miller Park as a 300 million, 50/50 public/private split giving the impression that it would be a 150 million dollar investment. Bill so far (not even counting all the tax breaks) is 605 million and what will be another 290 million very soon (I predict that number will end up being quite a bit higher than that), so we are up to 895 million which is just a shade under 6 times what was originally sold to the public. So if the A's are looking at 360 million of free money right off the bat, it's probably a reasonable bet that that will mean 2+ billion when freeloading billionaires and dishonest politicians have their way with the public dollars. No way MLB allows this franchise to flounder all the way through the first five years as that would look bad and not help their expert pilfering of public money for future projects. But when I am looking at a cheap owner in the smallest stadium in the smallest market in the league and the long-term projections of that comes with that...at what I reasonably expect to be a 2+ billion dollar price-tag over time...I'd be more than happy to throw them back to Oakland and let them deal with the constant headache of having to shell out free money to a crybaby billionaire.

Woah, woah, woah now. The Brewers hardly gave Erceg away. Attanasio probably got about 10,000 in cash as a result of that deal. Absolutely critical to get that money to keep the franchise afloat until Attanasio can get his 360 million dollar handout from the state.

I don't see it lasting for Teheran. May have the 1.56 ERA, but the 4.85 xFIP and 4.80 SIERA indicate that the ERA will rise, and possibly in dramatic fashion. I always suspect that K rate might have too much of an impact on xFIP and SIERA when it comes to heavy ground-ball pitchers, but Teheran GB% is only at 37.7, and while he throws a sinker, the numbers throughout his career show that he has never been a ground ball pitcher. The BABIP is .235 and the HR/FB% is 7.7, both low numbers that indicate he's been pretty fortunate so far.

McGinn's coverage has historically tended to be very good, as he is very well connected with NFL front office people and generally doesn't inject very much of his own opinion when it comes to evaluating prospects. According to him, OL and WR seem like the really weak groups this year, with TE and CB being the strongest.

And yet, billionaire owners can partner up with gambling organizations and make a few more million on top of their billions. Please enlighten me as to what the penalty would be for an owner if he was caught filling out a NCAA bracket on the team's property?

At those rates, would anyone even notice unless it was pointed out to them? 2021 = 492 SB + 188 CS = 680 attempts in 417 games = 1.63 attempts per game 2023 = 767 SB + 203 CS = 970 attempts in 438 games = 2.21 attempts per game 2021 = 492 SB / 417 games = 1.18 steals per game 2023 = 767 SB / 438 games = 1.75 steals per game Increase in attempts = 0.58 per game Increase in stolen bases = 0.57 per game Can't really see that 1 extra stolen base (and attempt) per every 2 games making MLB that much more of an exciting watch. Manfred and MLB will probably claim that this is some sort of big win, but those numbers make me think that people who weren't watching baseball before aren't going to start tuning in now.

Rodgers can flap his gums all he wants. I don't see him retiring until the door is hitting his rear end on the way out. Farve was going to retire the last 3-5 years when he was with the Packers, then was going to retire after his one year with the Jets, then was going to retire after his first year with the Vikings....and then did retire when his completion percentage slipped to 60%, his TD/INT ratio dropped to 11/19, his record as a starter went to 5-8 and nobody in the league wanted him anymore. If Rodgers was Andrew Luck then we wouldn't have seen him in the last 10 years. I'd put chances at 90+% that he falls in the Favre/Brady/Manning group and will continue to play as long as he is able.

There was nothing in the articles that I saw this morning about an estimate from the Department of Administration. I would love to see that study. It should be treated as a public record and should be posted online so the taxpayer can see where their dollars are going (maybe the Brewers will get a $400 toaster like those lucky ballplayers in Seattle did). But as far as I'm concerned, I couldn't care if it is 1 dollar or 500 million dollars, time for the NFL, NBA, MLB and all the others to look at the billions they take in every year and get off welfare train. Best way to solve the problem is to slap an average 5 dollar surcharge on each ticket ($10 if the Cubs are in town) and if the team sells 2,500,000 tickets per year,,,that's 2,500,000 * $5 * 20 years....raises $250,000,000 which should be more than enough if they don't fritter the money away (obviously the figures thrown around now are ridiculously high since it's "free government money"). Or else they could wait until the next big election (current lease doesn't expire for another 7 years) and put the 300 million on the ballot. But that would never happen because everyone knows the voters would send it down in flames.

I know what I'll be doing tonight. Writing Governor Evers, Senator Hesselbein and Representative Joers saying how the Milwaukee Brewers should not get one more penny from taxpayers for their playground. The district is not almost out of money. When they stopped collecting the tax, there was 80 million dollars still left to fund upgrades and improvements. What did they figure that would cover? Improvement to elevators and escalators, replacing every fixed seat, future roof maintenance and a whole list of other things. Costs of those was 71 million, so there was still money left over after that. https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/real-estate/commercial/2022/02/01/milwaukee-area-taxpayers-might-get-new-bill-ballpark-improvements/9289977002/ OK, so now we have inflation. But with a 290 million dollar payment, adding that to the existing pot of 80 million brings the total amount up to 380 million. 370/80 = 4.625 times. We have 450+% inflation? When Miller Park was first sold to the taxpayer, the line given was that it was a 300 million dollar project. 50% private/50% public. Instead of 150 million dollars, they collected 610 million dollars. The tax was originally supposed to end in 2014, they ran it out to 2020 to have a big enough fund to maintain the stadium through 2030. But it's pretty obvious that Attanasio just cannot stand the thought of having the free money faucet turned off, as there has been pretty consistent whining from the Brewers over the last two years about needing more money...even though there is a big chunk of funds already sitting there for stadium improvements that will last through the current lease. So if Evers plan goes through, which it will, we will now be up to 610 million plus 290 million = 900 million...literally 6 times the amount that was originally told to the public. There is still 7 years remaining on the existing lease, This plan adds another 13 years onto the lease. BUT THERE IS STILL 7 YEARS REMAINING ON THE EXISTING LEASE. If the Brewers are strong-arming politicians for more money now, if the politicians are so stupid to hand them the money now, what is going to stop Attanasio from coming to us in 2033 and saying he needs another 500 million? What was MLB's revenue last year? 11 BILLION? Not one more penny. I would definitely, without question, rather see the Brewers up and leave the state before throwing another 290 million at their 11 billion dollar league

Contreras has two pre-arbitration years left, which makes a huge difference. I don't think the experts project him to do what his brother has done, but let's assign him the same arbitration figures that Willson received (using the logic that lower figures from a slightly lesser performance is offset by baseball inflation). William is currently at 1 year + 109 days...the 109 days being key because it means there is pretty much no chance that he will be Super 2 eligible. So assuming the above, his salaries over the next 5 years would be- 2023 = ~0.80 million 2024 = ~0.90 million 2025 = 4.5 million 2026 = 6.65 million 2027 = 9.625 million Total - 22.475 million So a 6 year, 40 million dollar deal would likely buy out 1 year of free agency at 17.525 million. His brother's deal with St. Louis is basically an 18 million dollar/year deal. So the Brewers get no discount while guaranteeing him 6 years of salaries. I don't think taking 80% of "reasonable market value" is a bad deal for the player. In this case, it potentially costs William 8 million dollars, but the trade-off is he would get 32 million guaranteed, that protects him against injury or poor performance and is about 26 times more money than he's made so far in his MLB career. Something like this seems reasonable for both sides, if one expects him to perform at a level "just under" what Willson has done. 2023 = 1.5 million 2024 = 2.5 million 2025 = 5 million 2026 = 6.5 million 2027 = 7.5 million 2028 = 9 million 6 years, 32 million

Doing a search over at Fangraphs, there are 114 pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings in 2021 + 2022. In terms of xFIP, Houser's 4.45 places him #94 on the list. In terms of SIERA, Houser's 4.87 places him #111 on that list. MLB front offices look at these types of advanced metrics these days instead of looking at the more traditional stats when making deals for established players. Houser's advanced metrics aren't just below average, they are pretty bad when compared to the rest of the league. I'd bet pretty much every front office sees him as a potential inning-eater and nothing really beyond that. My guess on a return would be one lottery ticket prospect and one organizational filler prospect. I'd be surprised if they could get a top 15 player off of any team's prospect list during the off-season. Now if they got into the regular season and a couple team's rotations got wiped out by injury, maybe the Brewers could get more for Houser at that time. Think of it this way. Let's say the Brewers needed a starting pitcher. What would you give up for Brad Keller? In the 2021 + 2022 timeframe, Keller has a 4.46 xFIP (95th) and a 4.70 SIERA (107th). So what would you give up for Keller? Robert Gasser? Jeferson Quero? Robert Moore? Carlos Rodriguez (the pitcher)? Zavier Warren? Adam Seminaris? Those are Brewer prospects #5, #10, #15, #20, #25, #30 on Fangraph's most recent top Brewer prospects list. What you would give up for Keller is probably not so different from what other teams would give up for Houser. And yes, there is a difference in service time, but we aren't talking about annual 3 WAR players here. Houser's average bWAR/fWAR over the last two season is 0.9 WAR, so when you look at his arbitration salary, it's not like an extra year adds a whole lot of extra value.

Doing a search over at Fangraphs, there are 114 pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings in 2021 + 2022. In terms of xFIP, Houser's 4.45 places him #94 on the list. In terms of SIERA, Houser's 4.87 places him #111 on that list. MLB front offices look at these types of advanced metrics these days instead of looking at the more traditional stats when making deals for established players. Houser's advanced metrics aren't just below average, they are pretty bad when compared to the rest of the league. I'd bet pretty much every front office sees him as a potential inning-eater and nothing really beyond that. My guess on a return would be one lottery ticket prospect and one organizational filler prospect. I'd be surprised if they could get a top 15 player off of any team's prospect list during the off-season. Now if they got into the regular season and a couple team's rotations got wiped out by injury, maybe the Brewers could get more for Houser at that time. Think of it this way. Let's say the Brewers needed a starting pitcher. What would you give up for Brad Keller? In the 2021 + 2022 timeframe, Keller has a 4.46 xFIP (95th) and a 4.70 SIERA (107th). So what would you give up for Keller? Robert Gasser? Jeferson Quero? Robert Moore? Carlos Rodriguez (the pitcher)? Zavier Warren? Adam Seminaris? Those are Brewer prospects #5, #10, #15, #20, #25, #30 on Fangraph's most recent top Brewer prospects list. What you would give up for Keller is probably not so different from what other teams would give up for Houser. And yes, there is a difference in service time, but we aren't talking about annual 3 WAR players here. Houser's average bWAR/fWAR over the last two season is 0.9 WAR, so when you look at his arbitration salary, it's not like an extra year adds a whole lot of extra value.

Agree with you on the expansion aspect. I could never figure out why people would want a pro sports league to expand unless the expansion was happening in their market, which by some quick math indicates that 95% of fans should be against expansion. People do realize that a two-team expansion takes the current pool of actual major league players and expands it by 6.25% and then, after a few years, has that extra 6.25% spread across the league instead of mostly being limited to two teams. The more expansion, the worse the product becomes league-wide. If people don't believe that, take all the players on the six worst teams in baseball last year, and then redistribute them to the remaining 24 teams. Even if the bottom 30% of those rosters are bad (and they should be, because the teams are bad), that still would be 18 "worthy" players from 6 different teams...so 108 players to be redistributed...that's 4.5 players on average for each of the 24 remaining teams. A team that just missed the playoffs like the Brewers would likely be in a situation where, if it was a 24 team league, they would have been better at 3 or 4 spots on the 26 man roster.

Michigan really blew a golden opportunity with the way they slept-walked into the game with TCU. Hard for me to believe that TCU is really the better team. At least with Oklahoma and Texas bailing, we will now longer have to pretend that the Big 12 is a major conference and we can go down to a "Power Four." Really should have happened a few years ago IMO. Georgia with 354 yards of offense at halftime.

Congrats with bringing up Sonny Gray. Since 2018 there have been 56 MLB pitchers that have thrown at least 550 innings. Of those 56, Bauer ranks 19th in xFIP (3.70). Sonny Gray ranks 20th (3.71). There is more of a difference in SIERA. Bauer is 12th at 3.58 and Gray is 20th at 3.95. Based on the SIERA ranking, I'd wouldn't call Bauer a premier pitcher, but I would classify him as something like a "back-end ace" if you want to use some fairly ridiculous terminology. That SIERA rank does lie just outside the top 20%, but when factoring in that only 56 pitchers in a league have hit that inning number, placing 12th on that list is pretty impressive. If he's on a roll, he's as good as any pitcher the Brewers have. 2018 and 2020 pretty much demonstrate that. But like with Sonny Gray, there are stretches where he is not on a roll. I'm not saying the Brewers should sign Bauer. But if the Brewers long-term plan is to trade Burnes and Woodruff after this season rather than hold them and see them walk away for virtually nothing after the following season, it certainly wouldn't be crazy to add Bauer for cheap and just try have a rotation that would just blow away opposing lineups. If the long-term plans make 2023 a one-year, have to go-for-it type season, I don't think anything that could improve the ballclub should be off the table. Again, I'm not saying the Brewers should sign Bauer...actually at this point I would be in favor of them holding the money and trying to make a splash at the trade deadline when they know what areas of the team are a problem and what areas of the team are not a problem.

I think they would have to start with something like this- A League = Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, White Sox B League = Phillies, Rangers, Giants, Braves, Astros, Red Sox C League = Nationals, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Twins, Tigers, Blue Jays D League = Rockies, Marlins, Guardians, Cardinals, Padres, Orioles E League = Pirates, Royals, Rays, A's, Brewers, Reds Do that for just 2 years, then demote the E League to AAA status, that way the Yankees and Mets do not have to waste national TV contract money on completely irrelevant markets like Cincinnati and Milwaukee. Then take what's left and go with this- American League East = Yankees, White Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Orioles American League West = Angels, Rangers, Astros, Mariners, Twins, Guardians National League East = Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Phillies, Braves, Nationals National League West = Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Cardinals, Padres Red Sox had to get flipped to the National League because it holds the potential for a Yankees/Red Sox World Series which is the only thing that matters because it's what TV execs want the most. Top 8 teams in each League go to the playoffs. Bracket nerds can have their fun with the mini 16-team bracket format. This folks, is MLB, MLBPA and TVs wet dream right here.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35393987/los-angeles-dodgers-dfa-embattled-pitcher-trevor-bauer From the linked article- "The Dodgers organization believes that allegations of sexual assault or domestic violence should be thoroughly investigated, with due process given to the accused." The part about due process given to the accused is a load of crap. It sure looks like the Dodgers conspired with MLB to wiggle their way out a contract they no longer wanted. Look what happened when this case went before an independent arbitrator who had access to all the facts. And sure, guilty parties are not charged with crimes often due to lack of sufficient evidence. But the closest we get to evaluating the facts in a court of law, and the following happens. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/dodgers/2021/08/19/trevor-bauer-dodgers-restraining-order-rescinded-judge/8191147002/ The judge did not think Bauer exceeded the limits that his accuser had set. Bauer ceased doing two things she didn't like during sex after she communicated it to him. They also had a pre-arranged safe word and Bauer stopped when part of the safe word was said. Almost insulting to the general public that the Dodgers put the term "due process" in their press release.