JosephC

I'm just curious, what would be the upside in just keeping him? Bradley badly underperformed in 2021 and overperformed in 2020. He was pretty consistent with the bat from 2017-2019, slashing .234/.318/.409/.727 over those three years. His average bWAR/fWAR over those three years was 2.4 WAR. Renfroe just came off a season where his OBP was nearly 20 points higher than his career average (2021 = .315, career = .297) and nearly 35 points higher than it was in the previous 2 seasons (in 2019 and 2020 he posted a .281 OBP). Despite the .315 OBP and 31 home runs, his bWAR/fWAR for the season was 2.1. So if Bradley returns to be the player he was from 2017-2019, throwing out the plus and negative performances of the last two years, chances are pretty good that he will be a better player than Renfroe in terms of WAR. The more and more I looked at this deal and the historical numbers between Bradley and Renfroe, I'd be pretty surprised if Stearns sees Renfroe as a better player than Bradley. Now if Bradley went to Stearns and said he hated Milwaukee and asked him to do anything he could do to get him out of Milwaukee, that would change things. But it looks like Stearns wanted nothing more than to dump this contract, and the best deal he could find was swapping a player with a comparable WAR and then giving up two prospects to make for the fact that Bradley will have guaranteed money coming in 2023 while Renfroe does not.

I made a mistake with the amount of money remaining on Bradley's deal. 2023 is a mutual option for 12 million with an 8 million dollar buyout. I used 12 million when I only should have used 8 million. So Bradley's surplus value should have been -15.7, making the numbers a bit closer but still giving the Brewers an advantage in the surplus value calculation.

Last off-season I NOT jokingly suggested that the Brewer would be wise to give Hader to any team willing to take the Yelich contract. Even with the great year Hader had, right now that is looking like it would have been a great deal for Milwaukee. I've worked through the math and think baseballtradevalue's -104.6 million dollar estimate on Yelich is a good number. Steamer projects him for 3 WAR in 2022, so if you take that and do the 0.5 WAR subtraction for following years, he winds up at -94. I'd guess he's more around 2.5 WAR in 2022, the surplus value comes out to -121 million. So what I think would be a "realistic" range is -94 to -121 and the baseballtradevalue's number is right in that range. So let's start adding up prospect values using the baseballtradevalue's site- Mitchell = 22.2 Turang = 18.2 Frelick = 16.3 OK, we are only up to 56.7, we need to get to 104.6 to offset the Yelich contract. Quero = 9.3 Chourio = 8.5 Perez = 8.3 Black = 6.8 Garcia = 6.6 Small = 6.6 Believe it or not, we are not there yet. I could continue on, but this is getting too depressing. Let's just say that dumping Bradley's 17.5 million is not even in the same universe as trying to dump a 188.5 million dollar bad contract. After this Yelich deal, I can honestly say if I was a small market GM I would never, ever, ever, ever consider giving out a 100 million dollar contract to any player, and that would probably include Mike Trout.

I hope all you people that are complaining about imbalance and small market vs big market remember all of this when Attanasio comes to us and says AmFam Field is a pile of junk and he needs 1 billion dollars (will actually be 2+ billion dollars when all is said and done) for him and his millionaire buddies to get a new playground to play on. I don't know if it will be the state governor or the Milwaukee mayor, but one of those two will then spew the dumb "Milwaukee is a major league city." Well Mr. Politician, if that is true, then maybe it's time for MLB to stop treating cities like Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Kansas City as second-class citizens.

I'd put surplus values as follows. Just using 3-year numbers with the 0.5 WAR deduction after age 30 because that is the most unbiased way to do it. Since 2020 was only 37% of a season, 2019-2021 totals were divided by 2.37 to get a per year WAR average. Average bWAR/fWAR for Bradley comes out to 1.1. Subtract 0.5 WAR as he is over 30. Then I do another adjustment as a sub-3 WAR player, details are lengthy and I'm not going to go into them. So he projects to a 0.6 WAR player in 2022, but I'd only value him as a 0.2 WAR player. 0.2 * 9 = 1.8 million. He is unlikely to play 2023 under his current contract as that deal has a mutual option, so the value does not come off of 1.8 million. The remaining amount of money on his deal is 21.5 million, so 1.8 - 21.5....I have his surplus value as a -19.7 million dollars. Renfroe has two arbitration years left. Average bWAR/fWAR over the last three years comes out to 1.7 WAR. So he is projected to 1.7 WAR in 2022 and then 1.2 WAR in 2023 as it will be his age 31 season. Then, like I subtracted an additional 0.4 WAR from Bradley as a sub-3 WAR player, Renfroe gets dinged 0.2 WAR in 2022 and 0.3 WAR in 2023. So that puts him at 1.5 in 2022 and 0.9 in 2023, 2.4 WAR total. 2.4 * 9 = 21.6 million. MLB Trade Rumors puts a 7.6 million dollar arbitration estimate on him in 2022, and I'll put a 9.25 million estimate on him for the following year. So 21.6 - 7.6 - 9.25 = +4.75 million in surplus value. Here is kind of the crazy part. I haven't seen Baseball America's latest rankings, but MLB Trade Rumors says Hamilton and Binelas were both in the Brewers top 20 prospects at mid-season. It's probably safe to say neither of them are top 300 prospects when looking at all the minors. Those two things would have me slot both of them as "role-player prospects" and I put a 5.5 million dollar surplus value on each of those guys (making them the two most valuable pieces in the deal). So in terms of the straight, as unbiased as I can be, surplus value calculations. Boston gets- Bradley = -19.7 Hamilton = +5.5 Binelas = +5.5 Total = -8.7 Brewers get- Renfroe = +4.75 Total = +4.75 So quite the advantage to Milwaukee. That said, I can understand why Boston made this deal. The difference in salary between Bradley and Renfroe is not that great this season (<2 million), they are a team that can run a 200 million dollar payroll and have money coming off the books after next season (making it easier to deal with the extra money going to Bradley) and could very well be selling high on Renfroe (.315 OBP in 2021 is significantly above his somewhat pitiful career .297 OBP). So they have that along with the two prospects in making this swap.

Anyone see an estimate on Urias? Based on some super 2 infielder numbers in the past, I'd guess somewhere between 1.9-2.2 million.

Stroman will be a very good pickup for the Cubs if he stays healthy. Last year he threw sinkers 41.5% of the time, sliders 24.4% of the time, change ups 15.8% of the time and cutters 14.7% of the time. All four of those pitches were on the plus side in terms of effectiveness. He seems to be one of those guys like Greinke, who can probably be good for a long time and overcome dips in velocity because he can throw so many different things at hitters. 5-7 and 180 pounds though. Have to be a bit worried about that. Probably why it's a 3 year deal and not a 5 or 6 year deal.

One-year $10 million deal. Pricey! https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/phillies-to-sign-corey-knebel.html Love the way the article says "before injuries derailed his career" right after the paragraph that says someone just gave him 10 million dollars. If someone wants to mess up my career like that...have at it!

There might be some that are unaware, but a Michigan State cornerback named Kalon Gervin transferred to Wisconsin. It's almost like the two teams made a good old-fashioned trade. I see that Izayah Green-May also entered the portal. It's too bad he could never keep the weight on as it seemed the coaches loved his athleticism. That's 7 that entered the portal and then add the 2 running backs that were dismissed.

This is why I thought the Yelich deal was a wonderful deal for Milwaukee when he signed. Then the 2020 and 2021 seasons happened.

When he was pitching for Baltimore, he was known for having plus-plus stuff and there were a lot of comments credited to scouts that thought it was only a matter of time that he would break out. Since the beginning of 2019 his peripherals are very good to excellent. 4.3 K/BB ratio and a 3.39 FIP. He was top 7 in ERA, FIP and xFIP in 2021. I'm not surprised to see him get this deal. My only concern is that he's one of the rare starters that throws a splitter, so I would be worrried about having a five-year deal connected to a potential injury risk. But if he stays healthy, I think he'll be worth it. But the splitter, that's a really nasty pitch for him.

He probably doesn’t want anything to do with SEC defenses. I wonder if he’ll retain Graham Harrell as OC? They have some history. They are both Texas Tech alums and Riley was the WR coach when Harrell was the starting QB. What is USC going to pay him? I was under the impression that the Pac 12 was falling behind in TV money and the overall revenue game. Riley has been rumored to LSU, although I think the administration there would be crazy not to go get Aranda back. LSU was paying Orgeron 9 million. Riley was making 7.6 million at Oklahoma. USC was paying Helton 4.8 million. Pretty disappointing that the media has hyped this guy and then he bails for another B-league when having a chance to go play with the big boys. Now if USC pays him 10+ million a year, then that's a different story.

Go back and review the press conference and what Chryst said. He never said anything about the ST coach; his exact words were, "I didn’t handle it well, flat out.” Other sources are saying that the ST coach sent the punt unit out. It's funny how Chryst seems to be hated by about 80% on the various message boards, while at the same time is pretty much universally loved by the Badger fanbase in Madison.

4 years? Wow! Entering age 31 season with a lifetime .756 OPS as a corner outfielder. I would have guessed 2 years, 25 million.

Myers is a live body that any team could put in centerfield, just like the Brewers could put Tellez in centerfield. It doesn't mean that Myers can effectively play centerfield. The metrics show that he can play a decent left field, plays a passable first base, but would be a huge liability if put in centerfield or right field. The money is much closer than what you suggest. Myers gets 20 million this year and then a 1 million buyout the following year. Bradley gets 9.5 million this year (with much deferred) and 8 million dollars for the buyout the following year, so 17.5 million total. So the end financial difference is really only 5 million. However, whatever team pays Bradley this season only pays him 3 million of his 2022 salary, whereas with Myers the team has to pay him his entire 20 million dollar salary. So this trade immediately bumps the Brewers payroll from what I estimate to be about 105 million all the way up to 122 million. It's probably questionable if Attanasio would even be willing to go that high, but even if he was, it very likely means the Brewers would have near no room to make any other moves.

I have to admit that I would have put the punt team out there myself and kicked it away. The less I have to watch this offense, the better. With Allen looking all hobbled, you can either get points by Mertz leading a long drive down the field in a critical situation, or you can put the defense on the field and maybe they get an interception or fumble return for a TD. I'd go with the latter as being more likely to happen.

You can have worse in a coach, and I made that argument myself when we had Bert Bielema and people were calling for him to get fired. That being said, knowing that Chryst isn't "the worst" D1 coach (maybe) doesn't mean a team with the aspirations WI should have should settle for a guy like Chryst who honestly, really sucks at in-game management. He's a good recruiter. But he's honestly, a terrible in game manager, and today was a really stark reminder of that. Should he be fired? Obviously I'm not going to say yeah he should or no he shouldn't, but I think the UW athletic leadership needs to take a look at where this program is, right now and ask have a serious conversation with Chryst about the direction, because this season's potential was derailed almost entirely by bad coaching. If the bad coaching comment was directed at the recruiting of offensive skill position talent over the last 5 years, then I couldn't agree with you more. This is a Big 10 team and at the end of the season Chase Wolf was the #2 QB and Brady Schipper was the #2 RB. That is just pitiful. Or if the bad coaching comment was directed at the horrible, horrible decision to just hand the ball to Mertz and push Coan aside, then I absolutely agree. This was even more egregious because it flew in the face of everything Wisconsin has been about since Alvarez took over...it doesn't matter how stars you have behind your name, the best guy plays. Hopefully Chyrst learned his lesson on this one. But other than that, it's pretty likely the administration will look at how bad this team was early and, as it stands, they still have a chance to win 9 games and had a chance to go to the Big 10 championship game into the final quarter of regular season play. Like it or not, it was a pretty solid job by Chyrst to not have the wheels fall off after those first four games. Add in that Chyrst is a really down-to-earth guy who is universally loved around the campus (couldn't say the same thing about Bielema and Andersen), and there isn't a chance he will be fired. I very much doubt McIntosh will even raise an eyebrow over what happened today. The only thing they will worry about is that chances are probably >80% that Leonhard is gone and, depending on the size/profile of the school he goes to, he could end up taking a good chunk of the coaching staff with him.

Subtract Allen and the offensive skill position group was at MAC level this year.

It would have been interesting to see if Fielder had stayed with the Brewers, adding the Miller Park factor. But since he left, I think the trajectory he was on would have left him short of the Hall of Fame. I definitely do not consider WAR a definitive measure on if a player should be elected into the Hall of Fame, but I do think it's a good place to start. Fielder finished with a 27.5 fWAR and 23.8 bWAR. There are some early year players in the Hall of Fame with WARs in that area, but a good modern-day measure is probably something like 70 WAR is on the border, 90 WAR is a guarantee, 50 WAR is probably not. Obviously doesn't apply to every position. Relievers deserve consideration if they get into the high 20s. Great defensive catchers merit consideration once they get in 40 WAR territory. Fielder's final year was impacted by injury, so we'll just throw that out. The previous 3 years, covering 1583 plate appearances, Fielder had an .818 OPS and was good for 5.5 bWAR. Note that his missed a big chunk of one of those seasons due to injury, but it's a fair assumption that the older players get, the more time they will miss with injuries. My best guess, had he not had a career ending injury, that he probably would have averaged 2 WAR for about 5 more years and then would have been done. So he's probably a guy who would have finished with a career WAR in the 35-40 range, 440 HR and 1400-1450 RBIs. And since his bat was really all he brought to the table, IMO he really only has the HR/RBI numbers to rely on. The 440 HR's would have put him in with Dave Kingman, Jason Giambi and Paul Konerko. Players with similar RBI numbers include Jason Giambi, George Davis and Luis Gonzalez. Maybe Fielder would have rebounded and had a few more 50 HR seasons, but on the trajectory that he was on, I don't think he would have been a Hall of Fame player. All-bat players will have to post some massive, massive numbers in this era to get into the Hall of Fame (unless you are a Yankee, Red Sox, Dodger or get a worked, backdoor induction from a someone like Reinsdorf)...Fred McGriff is not in the Hall of Fame and I don't think Fielder's numbers would have matched what McGriff posted (.886 OPS, 493 HR, 1550 RBI).

I'd vote for Schilling and then write in Rose and Lou Whitaker.

His ground ball percentage was fine 47.9%, better than the league average which was about 43.0%, but his HR/FB rate was a ridiculous 24.5% (league average was about 13.5%). HR/FB rate can sometimes be a pretty flukey thing, in his case the difference between a 6.15 FIP and a 4.71 xFIP.

I’m right there with you. I’ll add Clemens, Schilling, Rose and ARod to that list. I have flipped on Rose. Once MLB owners starting making money on gambling from kiosks and sportsbooks located in, or attached to, MLB stadiums...it's pretty much impossible for MLB to make the claim now that gambling can/could leave a big stain on the game. It would be different if he bet against his own team, but to my knowledge there was never any evidence that he did. If I had a ballot I'd be including him as a write-in. Also want to point out that he was one of my least favorite players during his playing days, so it's not like I would have ever looked for some excuse to argue for his inclusion. The guy always came off as a huge jerk.

AL East proven. 19 game winner in 2019. And now for the serious part. Rodriguez did post a 3.32 FIP and a K/BB ratio just under 4 in 2021, so the ERA probably did have a bit of bad luck factored in. From 2017-2019, Rodriguez posted a 3.92 ERA/3.84 FIP so it's not like he has a long history of the actual run prevention dragging well behind the peripherals. All told, since 2017 Rodriguez has a 3.71 FIP in 628 innings and it's pretty likely that's what Detroit is hoping to get out of him.

Andy Pages is back end of top 100 and personally I think he's a bit under-rated when slotted there. That's primarily why I think the deal makes sense from the A's perspective. If they are only lukewarm on Pages, then they don't get enough in the deal.

Brewers get- 1B - Matt Olson RHP - Lou Trivino Dodgers get- LHP - Josh Hader A's get- 1B - Rowdy Tellez OF - Andy Pages SS - Brice Turang RHP - Clayton Beeter OF - Carlos Rodriguez