JosephC

I got home well after Houser was well out of the ballgame. For those of you who actually watched the first couple innings, what was your opinion of Houser. Bullpen keeper for the rest of 2019? I haven't seen one of his appearances this year, but was encouraged by what I saw of him last year.

I'm guessing that even the most commonly used metrics don't get Keuchel to near the money he was looking for at the beginning of the off-season. Let's say 1 WAR is worth 9 million this year. Then let's say dollar/WAR increased by an average of 7% each year. That would make 1 WAR = 11.79716 million for the 2023, which would be the final year of a 5 year contract. Keuchel has a three year average bWAR/fWAR of right around 2.5. fWAR slightly higher, bWAR slightly lower. But that's not a crazy number, I think if one would poll 30 MLB front offices, there might be a few that would have him at slightly above 3 and a few that would have him right around two but 2.5 seems like a real fair number based on his recent history. But this is the key factor in the metrics. He's 31 years old, and at the point where the rule of thumb is that one can expect a 0.5 WAR decrease from one season to the next. So if he gets a 5 year deal, we start at 2.5 in 2019 but end up at only 0.5 WAR in 2023. It's hugely significant. His value the final year of a five year deal would probably only be estimated at 0.5 x 11.79716 = 5.90 million. So to fill in all the blanks, this is what the contract should look like based on pretty commonly used metrics. 1 year, 22.5 million (22.5 AAV) 2 years, 41.76 million (20.88 AAV) 3 years, 57.21615 million (19.07205 AAV) 4 years, 68.24154 million (17.06038 AAV) 5 years, 74.14012 million (14.82802 AAV) And then all these numbers need to be adjusted down because he's missed a good chunk of the 2019 season. It seems pretty obvious that his math factors in zero decline for the next 6 years if his initial asking price was indeed the rumored 6 years, 160-180 million dollars. He'd be looking at a total of 15, 16, 17 WAR...something like that...over a 6 year time-frame. 15 WAR/6 seasons = 2.5 WAR so no decline from what he's done the last three years.

It is interesting how dominant Peralta was against right handed hitters last year (.111/.209/.188/.396), and how they are just feasting on him this year (.333/.404/.647/1.051). Burnes went from starter to bubble to reliever and Woodruff went from starter to bubble and, at least for now, seems pretty safe in the rotation. Peralta will have to start showing improvement pretty quick. His major issues early in ballgames is pretty much saying that he probably cannot be counted on to be an effective MLB reliever. One more blowup from him and I'd put him back in AAA. Hopefully he can rebound like Woodruff did. Big opportunity for Houser too. He'll be pitching on two days rest, I think that would limit him to about 60 pitches considering he's been a starter for most of this year. Would be pretty wonderful if the plan was to pitch him two innings, but he did so well that Counsell left him out there for four. An excellent opportunity for Adrian to go out there and earn some more MLB innings.

Pina is a much better defensive catcher than Bandy. I don't think he's in any danger of losing his 25-man roster spot. David Freitas just doesn't seem to have enough of an MLB resume to unseat Pina.

Mike Minor. Although the Brewers might not have the prospect capital to match up with the Rangers (Hiura has way too much value to include, Minor would very likely command Ray + another top 8 prospect + another top 15 prospect IMO). Minor can also block deals to 10 clubs.

I started looking at what could be realistic possibilities about a week ago, and those two things are a major problem. Attanasio was surprisingly open about his desire to add Kimbrel, and since he is not yet signed, IMO it's pretty solid evidence that the Brewers are not going to be adding another 15-20 million dollars in salary. So right now, guys like Kimbrel, Keuchel, Greinke or maybe even someone like Samardzija just aren't real good possibilities. Add in that the Brewers two best candidates to include to provide some salary relief (Anderson and Thames), are looking more and more like they could evolve into necessary pieces for this year's team. And prospect capital, there just isn't that much of that if the Brewers take Hiura off the board. Not to mention that a big chunk of last year's prospect capital was the <1 year players (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta), and we can't say anything other than the value of those three players has dropped significantly in the last few months. They could take a real big gamble on someone like Aaron Sanchez, who the Blue Jays probably would trade because of health and some really ugly peripherals, but top guys are certainly looking out of reach at this point. I think they end up playing with what they got and do a couple of the minor Swarzak/Soria deals in July.

Needless to say, another important start for Woodruff.

This should be in the transactions rumor/proposals forum and have a sister "buyers at the deadline?" thread.

This is kind of what I am wondering. Did Johnson look so good because other decision-makers came to him and said "let's put Burnes in the rotation" and Johnson said "no, bullpen him." Or is Johnson just a mechanics wizard that will consistently get the best performances out of his pitchers? I'm still wondering if the Brewers just screwed it up by assigning the wrong role in just about every single case where there was a decision to make. At least Woodruff has looked a little better in two of his last three starts, but his history shows that he has been a far, far, far better MLB pitcher as a reliever. Anderson began the year in the pen after having been a starter for most of his career, and the couple times he started he's looked far more effective. Guerra has done good work out of the pen, but with the struggles of the three young starters, maybe the Brewers should have done what Guerra's done most of his career and pitch him as part of the starting rotation. Burnes looked plus-plus-plus out of the bullpen last year, and it took a 10+ ERA to convince the Brewers they couldn't send him out to the mound as a starter (for now). Peralta's performance tailing off after a hot MLB start last year, and back in the rotation this year and throwing 80+% fast balls which may be one of the reasons his performance faded a bit as time went by. Hook may very well be a pitching coach bum. However, I would have to think these role assignments out of spring training has input from Hook and Counsell and Stearns, and to this point it looks like they are trying to pound square pegs into round holes.

I agree from the standpoint that the results so far have been awful. But I still look at the following and.... Rotation = Chacin, Gonzalez, Davies, Anderson, Nelson Bullpen = Hader, Jeffress, Woodruff, Guerra, Albers, Claudio, Burnes, Barnes MiLB possibilities = Peralta, Williams, Houser, Hart, Wilkerson I still think if that's how it settles, that it could be a pretty decent staff overall. And if one of the listed starters there flops, then Peralta could hopefully jump up and do a better job. Guerra has already seemed to be completely written off as a starter and that could be a rather hasty judgment as well. I have no problem with him remaining in the bullpen for the time-being, but he should be given starter consideration if needed. I'm really starting to think the decision-makers likely made some poor judgments starting the year off and hopefully they will settle on a combination of starters/relievers that can get the job done. Is there elite talent there? Well there are a couple guys but it's far from an elite group as a whole. But there are many of the same names the Brewers played with last year, and they certainly got the job done in 2018.

I'd be very disappointed if Savage ends up being a nickel safety. The back end has been a significant problem for the Packers for awhile now, and when the Packers moved up aggressively, one would hope it would be to fix that problem rather than just add another body to the nickel back mix.

QB - Looks about the same, Rodgers with very little behind him. But that's really sort of the way the NFL works now. How many teams actually have a decent backup QB? I'd say probably less than 1/3rd of them. Hopefully Rodgers bounces back. I think his accuracy has really fallen off the last two years. RB - Jones health is a real key here. Vitale is not a blocking fullback, but from what I've seen it seems like LaFleur is more of a one back, two tight end zone blocking run offense. Fullback was a worthless position in McCarthy's offense and the same may hold true for LaFleur. WR - Not a surprise as NFL GMs will stick with their guys through thick and thin and IMO, that's what ends up costing most of these guys there jobs. Adams is good, Allison is serviceable, but really all the depth lies in the three picks from the 2018 draft. One has to have serious doubts about Moore after last year's no-show. The other two showed solid promise. TE - I have some concerns about Sternberger because he was a one-year wonder and I always have suspicions about those guys. But he got it done in a big-time conference (where they actually play defense). There really isn't anyone else in this group to be the least bit excited about. I wouldn't have minded if the Packers had used two draft picks in this area, or had picked Sternberger and gone out and signed another free agent tight end. OL - I don't like the way offensive tackle is shaping up because Bulaga's health and I just think Spriggs is a bad player. The more I've looked into Turner's background/reviews, the more he seems like a mediocre "placeholder" lineman. I really like Jenkins as a player, but I think one has to question how he fits in. 2015 - 2 starts at LT and 1 start at RT. 2016 - 3 starts at LT and 2 starts at LG. 2017 - 13 starts at center. 2018 - 13 starts at center. Some will say he's a versatile lineman that can play all over the line, but others will say he has played all over the line but is obviously a best fit at center considering how his college career unfolded. Overall I see this as a shaky group. The four regular starters really had the look of an old group last year. DL - I like the Clark/Lancaster duo at NG and, for whatever reason, see a good pair with upside in Lowry/Kingsley. Maybe a bit optimistic with Lowry/Kingsley but we'll find out soon enough. Daniels/Adams is a bit worry-some. Daniels has been a great, great, great player but is up there in age and is coming off injury. Adams is frustrating because he looked like a complete world-beater on some players last year but is invisible much of the time he is out there. OLB - We'll find out a lot about Gutekunst with what happens with this group. Big, big, big investments were made here and, when considering that, this group needs to perform well right out of the gate. ILB - Yuck. I actually really like Ty Summers, but overall this looks like a really mediocre group on paper. CB - Alexander seems like a keeper. Lots of questions with the rest of the group. Josh Jackson needs to take that next step. S - Hopefully Savage and step in and be a starter from day one. Depth here is awful after Amos and Savage.

I'd actually like to see Peralta back at AAA, just because I think he's the one that needs to work on his off-speed stuff the most. I'd obviously like to see him put back in the MLB rotation and succeed even more, we'll see what happens. He just seems like the guy that needs the most "seasoning" to me. When Nelson is healthy, this is the way I think roles should play out considering what has happened so far this year. Even though Burnes performance really hasn't earned him a bullpen spot, I'd like to see him back on the MLB roster based on what he did out of the bullpen last year. Rotation = Chacin, Gonzalez, Davies, Anderson, Nelson Bullpen = Hader, Jeffress, Woodruff, Guerra, Albers, Claudio, Burnes, Barnes MiLB possibilities = Peralta, Williams, Houser, Hart, Wilkerson MiLB not yet ready = Supak, Diplan And Alex Wilson will have to make a decision whether he wants to pitch for San Antonio or be a free agent.

No longer buying the "Braun still hits lefties" commentary after today's ballgame. Braun should not be placed above #6 in the batting order against any pitcher until he puts up a solid 2 weeks of at-bats together. Good grief, the guy is down to a .245 OBP overall and against lefties he's slashed .179/.258/.383/.651...and there he is back in the #3 spot because he was a really great hitter three years ago. Extensive commentary on Aguilar isn't even needed at this point. Even against lefties, he probably should be hitting 7th in the batting order. I was all for getting Hernan some more at-bats because he started off pretty well this year, but not surprisingly he is fading fast. Having Braun at #3, Aguilar at #4 and Perez at #6 to begin a ballgame is almost asking for a loss. If I was the opposing manager and saw this, Yelich would be intentionally walked 90% of the time.

I somehow thought Wilkerson was going to wiggle out of that jam, which would have at least given the Brewers a chance. This was a pretty pathetic effort by the non-pitchers at the plate and the Gamel error turned out to be the key play in the ballgame.

Woodruff needs a quality outing tonight. Time for him to prove he should stay in the rotation when the Brewers have the option of having Chacin, Gonzalez, Davies, Anderson and Nelson as the starting five.

This is a great signing for the Brewers IMO. Starting pitcher ERA currently sits at 5.77. From 2016-2018, Gonzalez has pitched to a 3.87 ERA/3.95 WHIP. He has averaged 183 innings over the stretch. This has been reported as a 2 million dollar investment that could grow to a 4 million dollar investment. I'm not big into the "rotation must have at least 1 lefty starter" approach, but this move also adds a lefty starter that the Brewers didn't have. Personally I don't think Gonzalez is near the same class as Keuchel, but over the same timeframe Keuchel has posted a 3.77 ERA/3.78 WHIP, has averaged 172 2/3 innings. Not nearly as big of a difference as one would suspect before looking at the numbers. Sure, there is a chance that Gonzalez will show up and suddenly be too old and will be an ineffective pitcher. But I'd gladly take that risk for a 2-4 million investment considering how bad the pitching has been so far. Looking at the recent history of all of the Brewers starting pitching candidates, there is also a real solid chance that Gonzalez turns out to be the best starting pitcher. I'm really happy to have him on board.

This is an interesting look at Gary, who clearly had a decent level of production but never really matched the expectation. https://collegesportsmaven.io/michigan/football/the-case-for-against-rashan-gary-s-career-at-michigan-ULtDJefMbE2PKAS3Td1Etw/ I was all for picking Gary last night and was willing to take the gamble on greatness. But the more I've read this morning, the more I wish the Packers wouldn't have taken him. But if you really like him, take note that Rashan Gary Sports shirts and hoodies are already available! https://rashan-gary.myshopify.com/

I'll do the following projections for the rest of the draft. 2-44 - TE-Irv Smith Jr./Alabama 3-75 - ILB-Germaine Pratt/North Carolina State 5-150 - OT-Tyler Roemer/San Diego State 6-185 - WR-David Sills V/West Virginia 6-194 - CB-Ka'dar Hollman/Toledo 7-226 - S-Zedrick Woods/Mississippi

Four of the first day one/day two picks for Gutekunst have posted really good 40 times. Jaire Alexander = 4.38 Josh Jackson = 4.56 (the exception) Oren Burks = 4.59 Rashan Gary = 4.58 Darnell Savage, Jr. = 4.36 I have to wonder if this will be a long-term trend for Gutekunst? It almost seemed like at the end of Thompson's reign that the Packers used the 3-cone drill as a primary evaluating tool with the big men.

I'm kind of rooting for the Packers to trade up now and grab Simmons, if for nothing else to watch the media lose their collective mind.

Who are you talking about? Clay Matthews? I hope not. Matthews was listed on USCs roster at 230 pounds as a senior and was 240 at the combine.

I heard Godell announce him as a linebacker. I don't know about that. 277 at the combine but was listed at 283 on Michigan's website and I'm pretty sure that I've read that he generally played at around 290. I'd like to think he's more of a really unique 5-technique DE that could even swing to 3-technique on passing downs. It will be interesting to see how the Packers use him.

Now time to see if the Broncos take Bush.

Had to believe the Jaguars really wanted an OLman at #7, but were just too smart to pass up a good bargain when they saw one!