JosephC

Gosewisch is just a terrible hitter. Was awful at the MLB level and was very mediocre at AAA as well. Freitas has been very bad offensively as a MLB hitter, but he has 700+ plate appearances in AAA and has posted a slash line of .295/.374/.425/.800. Nottingham has an excellent offensive season in Colorado but is off to a slow start this year (.174/.321/.261/.582). If Freitas brings a plus glove, there is a pretty decent chance Stearns would see him as a better option than Nottingham/Gosewisch if Grandal or Pina suffer an injury.

Nottingham caught last night and Gosewisch caught today, there was no report that I saw of a Nottingham injury. Maybe Stearns just isn't comfortable with the AAA catching and thought an upgrade was needed?

These 8 guys are looking like a near lock to be off the board at #12: Quinnen Williams/Alabama Nick Bosa/Ohio State Josh Allen/Kentucky Ed Oliver/Oklahoma Devin White/Louisiana State Rashan Gary/Michigan Kyler Murray/Oklahoma Montez Sweat/Mississippi State It's a draft, anything can happen, but looking at the resumes, combine numbers, and things that are being said...the Packers would be extremely fortunate if any of those guys made it down to #12. Next guy would likely be TE-T.J. Hockenson/Iowa, but I think there has only been one TE picked in the top 15 in the last 12 years (Ebron to Detroit at #10 and IMO he was a disappointment). There are teams picking in that area of the draft who could really use a TE though. Hard one to call but I wouldn't rule him out. The buzz over WR-D.K. Metcalf/Mississippi really seems to have died down, although he still would have to be considered a good bet to be picked in the top half of round one. Chances are better than 50/50 he makes it to #12. OT-Jawaan Taylor/Florida really seems to be a riser. Always having that first round grade, he seems to get ignored when he skipped most of the combine stuff. But now seems to be a hot name as teams have gone back and looked at his tape. Doesn't have major character concerns, but has been fat in the past and also had a couple minor incidents. The Packers did interview him at the combine, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's the #1 target at #12. I think chances are only about 50/50 he is available there. OT-Andre Dillard/Washington State seems to have it all on paper. Good player. Extensive history playing in a good conference. Very good workout numbers. I have some concerns with that offense that he came out of, lots of those spread OL'men have struggled when entering the NFL. But overall, there is not much to dislike with this guy, especially a team that has a pass happy offense. Just how serious LaFleur is about running the ball might be the determining factor if the Packers grade Dillard as a top 12 pick. There also could be some concern with how he'd fit at a right tackle since he profiles more as a left tackle type, and the Packers would obviously be asking him to play right tackle if they picked him. Even though he is grading a bit further down the board, it really wouldn't be all that shocking if the Packers "reached" for LB-Devin Bush/Michigan at #12. ILB is a huge need. And while Bush is short (5'11"), he brings the speed and athletic ability (4.43 in the 40, 40 1/2 inch vertical jump) and would give the Packers a dynamic at inside linebacker that they haven't had in recent years. While I don't think they would pick him at #12, DT-Jeffery Simmons/Mississippi State was in Green Bay a few days ago on a visit. Injured his knee in a workout that will cost him all of next season, but he had a solid top 10 grade prior to the injury and has really been a beast on the field for Mississippi State. Overcame a very controversial incident that happened before he arrived at Mississippi State but has been, by all reports, a model citizen during his time there. I'm leaning towards thinking Jawaan Taylor is the guy they want at #12.

This start has the potential to put the Brewer's rotation at the bottom of the NL in ERA.

According to ESPN the Brewers only have blown one save so far. That happened on April 1st, in the sixth inning, when Claudio gave up one run to turn a 3-2 Brewer lead into a tie game. The Brewers went on to win that game 4-3. Of the Brewers 10 wins, all have been by three runs or less. Hader picked up all those saves in early games but the last two wins have been finished out by Wilson and Guerra. The Brewers don't need to the throwing 10+ million (1 year) at a rigid, one-inning pitcher, much less the 3 year, 45 million dollar deal that Kimbrel is likely looking for now (numbers are just speculation on my part). Give me Keuchel instead any day of the week. Giving him 1 year, 20 million would be a far better investment than going 3 years, 45 million on Kimbrel. Although, truth be told, with a 10-5 record I'd rather sit on all remaining money and see what things are looking like in June. Just one injury could completely shift the primary need areas of the team.

Red Sox pitching just sucking. Even Chris Davis bashed them around with a 3 hit, 4 RBI performance. Team ERA was 6.14 going into today and they ended up giving up another 9 runs (8 earned).

Kimbrel's agent isn't holding Kimbrel out, Kimbrel is holding Kimbrel out. If Kimbrel wants to sign a deal presented to him, he would direct his agent to accept the deal. Or change agents. Yes, you are correct. That was a poor choice of words on my part. Especially with Kimbrel, who is a veteran that's been around the game a long time, has played for different teams, has seen many teammates come and go. Albies is still a very young guy that hasn't been around MLB clubhouses that long and probably relied heavily on his agent. If Kimbrel gets burned by his current situation, he really has no one to blame but himself. He should know how the business works.

If MLBTradeRumors agency database is correct, Ozzie Albies agent is Dave Meter. The same individual that is Craig Kimbrel's agent. It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer, and on the other hand be so willing to sign a deal like this for Albies. I don't know if the "he's going to lose the player" theory has any weight...considering the criticism he's received so far for this deal...that surely won't help his reputation among players. If the Kimbrel situation really sours (doesn't sign this year and the market only determines he's worth something like 3 years, 42 million next off-season), Meter will look really bad. I thought the Acuna deal would have been pretty reasonable for both sides if not for those last two option years. But when going through arbitration, offense is king. Acuna has been a .930 OPS player so far. Albies had a .305 OBP in his one full season and has been a .774 OPS player so far. Overall he's been really good for a second baseman (offense and defense), and at only 22 there is a strong chance that he will become much, much better, but I wouldn't project him into the probable superstar category that I would with Acuna. I would project Albies to earn about 33 million in those three arbitration years. So his earnings the next five years would be something like 0.6 + 0.6 + 8 + 11 + 14 = 34.2 million. Giving the team a discount in exchange for security, let's say 70% of his projected earnings, put a reasonable buy figure for those five years at 0.6 + 0.6 + 5.6 + 7.7 + 9.8 = 24.3 million. IMO that would be a fair figure for 2019-2023 seasons. With this deal, Albies will only earn 17 million over this timeframe, less than half of what I would guess his future earning would be, and only 70% of what I figure a fair discounted price would be. Then it gets into the lost free agent years which really makes this a ridiculous deal. If I were Albies agent I would have had no problem selling the Braves the first year of free agency at what could be a pretty good discount (say 12 million) just to get the client the financial security. But there is no way I would have sold off more than one year of free agency. Arbitration years and pre-arby years at discount = 24.3 million + 12 million free agent year puts it at 6 years, 36.3 million and that's as low as I would have gone. This could turn into a 9 year, 45 million deal which is obviously horrible if Albies turns into a 15+ million AAV player, because as I see it, his agent sold off those 15+ million seasons for a roughly 3 million AAV.

Obviously a start where the end result is a 6 ERA cannot be considered a great success, but Woodruff did a pretty decent job last night. A bit of encouraging news there. And some nice work by the pen. Just have to hope that the offense doesn't fall off a cliff once the pitching stabilizes and gets itself going a bit.

No, but they could. I think we're using Midwest values to determine what is prudent and what is excessive. Just because we wouldn't buy such an expensive, flashy car doesn't mean we couldn't. And it doesn't mean he shouldn't. And you're talking about a 75 percent increase over 20 years, while the Brewers have had a 400 percent increase over 14 years. Baseball teams go through cycles where they are competitive and then they're not. The Brewers are at the peak of that cycle. So if they find themselves lacking at a position and have a trade partner with an expensive player coming back, that contract shouldn't be a factor. It depends on the liquid assets held by that individual. If said individual has a net worth of 500k...350k house, 125k retirement accounts, 25k in the bank...then the said individual only has 25k in liquid assets(*) and cannot buy a 150k car. (*) - assumes that the individual would suffer a loss in value when cashing out the retirement account, thereby making it a non-liquid asset Or the individual could just go ahead and cash out the 125k retirement account, and after the value of that 125k is decreased, could add the "lesser" 125k to the 25k the bank, finance the rest to get himself up to 150k and then buy himself the car. Foolish and irresponsible as could be, but that individual could buy the car. We really have no idea what Attanasio/Brewers liquidity situation is.

I'm just wondering if there is anybody on this board that bought a 200k house in 1999. Now that house is worth 350k. So because that house is now worth 150k more than it was than it was when they first bought it, they have decided to go out and buy themselves a brand new 2019 Aston Martin Vantage?

If the Brewers offer a 1 year, 19 million dollar contract and the Yankees offer a 1 year, 19 million dollar contract, then Keuchel will be a Yankee. Boras likes to keep the normally big spending customers happy.

I'd probably counter that with: Tigers get: RHP Nate Griep RHP Adam Hill RHP Bubba Derby Brewers get: RHP Shane Greene RHP Brian Garcia And I'll counter with: Orioles get: 3B Lucas Erceg RHP Aaron Wilkerson RHP Bowden Francis SS C.J. Hinojosa Brewers get: RHP Alex Cobb 3B Ryan Mountcastle IF Jean Carmona I see you throw Wilkerson's name into prospective deals all the time? Why is this? Who is going to see a 30-year-old AAAA tweener who needs a 40-man spot as any sort of asset? What is far more illogical is the inclusion of Ryan Mountcastle. The Orioles would probably love nothing more than to dump Cobb's salary, but they clearly don't need too. They are a team that has run a 150 million dollar payroll in the past, have it down to about 80 million this year, and will be dumping another 23 million after the following season in the Cashner and Trumbo contracts. After they likely trade off a couple more arbitration deals (Villar being one example), they will likely be running something like a 60-65 million dollar payroll in 2020 like the Brewers did a couple years ago. And Cobb is making 14-15 million per season, it's a bad contract but not a hideous contract like the Chris Davis deal. So what motivation would the Orioles have to give up a legitimate top 100 prospect like Ryan Mountcastle and basically get back Erceg and what currently ranks as a bunch of junk from Milwaukee? It would be like, taking the Brewers from 2 years ago, being so desperate to trade Ryan Braun that they were willing to throw in Brett Phillips and get one decent, descending type prospect and nothing else back in return. But this is worse in that there is more money in Braun's contract and Milwaukee is a smaller market than Baltimore, making the financial impact that much more significant. The Orioles are a bad, rebuilding team and are not going to give away prospects to unload Alex Cobb's contract.

Big start for Woodruff tonight. Woodruff as a major league starter (67 2/3 innings) = 4.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.05 HR/9, 2.29 K/BB Woodruff as a major league reliever (26 2/3 innings) = 2.06 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 0.69 HR/9, 6.80 K/BB Sample sizes still pretty small, but with both the starting pitching and bullpen really struggling at this point, it seems like bumping Woodruff to the pen would be an obvious move if he has a couple more bad starts.

Petricka 2016-2018: ERA = 5.33 FIP = 4.78 WHIP = 1.71 Looks more like JJ Hoover rather than Wade Miley after one appearance. We'll see how many more he gets.

I'll play Tigers GM and counter your offer with- Tigers get: Eduarqui Fernandez Adam Hill Brewers get: Shane Greene ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'll also play Orioles GM and make the Brewers the following offer Orioles get: Carlos Herrera one Brewer "insider" named HighHeat19 Brewers get: Alex Cobb 8.5 million dollars

Rosenthal is reporting Keuchel will take a one year deal but is looking for more than the qualifying offer amount (17.9 million). Very much doubt the Brewers want to sink 20 million into him considering the budget is probably already pretty stretched.

I'd love to know what Kimbrel's demands currently are. Would have to think he's demanding more than Britton's 3 year, 39 million (biggest contract given to a reliever this past off-season). 2 years, 40 million? 3 years, 54 million? 4 years, 64 million? Would guess that he is still in that 3-4 year, 54-64 million dollar area. 2020 will be his age 32 season.

Corbin Burnes might have the all-time record for biggest difference in FIP and xFIP after two starts. FIP = 8.35. xFIP = 1.95.

Murphy is no Bob Harlan, that's for sure. We really got spoiled with Harlan running the show for so many years.

I thought Rollins was bad from day one. Looked OK in the pre-season games, but it was obvious he couldn't run when the real games started. Combine numbers in the 40 were 4.67 and 4.58 and he was officially credited with a 4.57. That amazes me now because the eye-test would have put him at 4.8-plus when watching him on the field. I can especially remember one game against the Lions where it seemed like receiver after receiver just ran right by him...he didn't have a chance against those guys. Green Bay did a horrible job with Heyward. I can remember the year him and House split time depending on who they were playing. If the other team had big receivers, then House was the one that played. To think that House ever received playing time over Heyward is pretty much mind-boggling, because House was really mediocre the first time he was with the Packers, was beyond awful in Jacksonville and was bad, bad, bad when he returned to Green Bay. The fact that the Packers gave him a second year on his second go-around in Green Bay just shows how messed up and pitiful the defensive secondary became under Thompson. At least Gutenkunst looks like he got himself a good one in Alexander.

I think the contract is light and wouldn't have recommended Acuna take the deal. Based on what he's done so far, I would estimate his future earnings at: 2019 = 0.575 2020 = 0.575 2021 = 12.5 (1st of 4 arbitration years as Super Two) 2022 = 16 2023 = 21 2024 = 26 2025 = 37.5 2026 = 37.5 2027 = 37.5 2028 = 37.5 As far as the arbitration process for Super 2's, best recent comparable would be Kris Bryant who got 10.85 million in year one and 12.9 million in year two. Take the first eight years and the total for those 8 years is 151.65. From Acuna's perspective, I'd be more than willing to sacrifice 30% of what would appear to be about the max I could otherwise make. That would put my "want" at 106.155 million. Since he's guaranteed 100 million over the first 8 years, I don't think that part of the contract is bad at all. But I don't like the two option years stuck on the end. 34 million total for those two years, at a critical age range where he might really lose significant value on the free agent market....I don't know if I would have been willing to tie up those two season with team options at all. At a minimum, I would have expect the Braves to pay much closer to the 75 million number than the 34 million that he will likely get unless he busts or is injured. So from his shoes, I would have pretty much demanded the deal be 8 years, 105 million, and to convince me to push it further than that, I would have demanded 10 years, 170 million....but in all honesty would have preferred to keep it at 8 years, 105 million and then try to land another 5+ year deal after the conclusion of year 8.

If I was a player, I would completely reject pretty much any mention of a deferred payment unless the amount of the deferral was something ridiculous...say literally five times the amount of the payment I would receive today and was delayed for 5 years. And even if they offered me 10 times the amount of money I would make today, I would still reject it if the payments were happening more than 10 years down the road. Just on basic principle, why would I want someone else to hold MY MONEY and make money off of MY MONEY. Then there are always the other unknowns. In the deferred payments until 2072 situation...well that does nothing for me if I develop cancer and die in 2035. What happens if World War III breaks out in 2040 and brings an end to professional sport leagues? What if, in 2030, they decided to tax all income over 500k at an 80% rate? Give me my money now, thank you very much! I'm pretty sure Boras got a good laugh out of the National's proposal and didn't give it much of any consideration. I wouldn't have either.

Well, not really. "Keep salaries down in arbitration." That really doesn't make much sense, because if a player or group of players is getting low-balled, then they just see the arbitration process to completion and the arbitrator will award them the figure they've requested. After the 300+ million dollar contracts earned by Harper and Machado, in addition to a bunch of notable large extensions, I would have figured the sports media would have laid off of this by now. But more of the tired billionaire versus millionaire class struggle that "journalists" will take up with one side just because they see that side as "labor," although the groundkeepers and hot dog vendors are as just as much a part of labor as the millionaires. If the sports media really wants to go here, why not talk about the Bucks 45 million dollar parking ramp, payed for by Milwaukee taxpayer dollars, and then look at the 140 positions that were cut by Milwaukee schools last year because of a 38 million dollar deficit.

No kidding, how bad has the Brewer bullpen so far? NL ranks- ERA = 5th (3.57) FIP = 3rd (0.96) OPS against = 2nd (.590)