JosephC

I thought #2 was just as interesting. All this talk about all these great free agents left. Well, not really. https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274 So by fWAR- SS - Manny Machado (6.2) SP - Dallas Keuchel (3.6) - mediocre strikeout numbers pushes his value down in the current MLB climate RF - Bryce Harper (3.5) SS - Jose Iglesias (2.5) - nearly all his value comes with the glove, below-average bat with a career .270/.315/.363/.678 slash line 3B - Mike Moustakas (2.4) SP - Gio Gonzalez (2.0) SP - Clay Buchholz (1.9) - starting pitcher that has averaged 90 innings over the last four years RF - Carlos Gonzalez (1.7) - .243/.301/.374/.675 on the road from 2016-2018 LF - Marwin Gonzalez (1.6) - lifetime .264/.318/.419/.737 and that includes the out-of-character 2017 numbers, mediocre glove for most positions other than LF and the bat plays down there LF - Denard Span (1.5) RP - Craig Kimbral (1.5) RF - Jose Bautista (1.0) - way up there in age Only 6 left that posted a WAR of 2+ last year and only 12 left that posted a WAR of 1+ last year.

I couldn't agree more with this, very well said. If you gave us the choice of billionaires or millionaire players getting more money, almost everyone is going to choose the players. Players/agents simply have a message/strategy problem right now. If there was a "neither" option, I'd bet that would take 90+% of the opinion poll. How about the owners and players both make much less and the money that used to go to them would instead go to (1) 100% privately financed stadiums and picking up all the costs associated with those stadiums (2) paying all the other people that work for MLB teams a better wage.

You could be right but I for one would be extremely disappointed if he is found not guilty and is basically cast aside by the university. But yes, it's pretty obvious at this junction of US history that a court of law is pretty irrelevant compared to what some "journalist" might say in an opinion piece on the ESPN website. Facts be damned. And on the flip side, if he is found guilty in a court of law then he should be punished to the full extent of the law.

McCalvy is also guessing that Burnes starts the year in AAA. https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-opening-day-roster-prediction/c-303759980

Did Lawrie "leave" or did no team want him, even on a minor league deal, for two seasons? I've been under the impression that it wasn't his choice that he's been out of baseball for the last two years. He's a talented guy but has been out of baseball for two seasons. The three seasons prior to that he was a below average offensive player (.253/.303/.412/.715, 97 OPS+) that played below average defense and from all sorts of reports it sounds he was disliked by most of his teammates. I don't mind the signing because the guy has talent, but if the last five years are any indication, Brett Lawrie is little more than a waste of time for a major league team. There was a third base opening in the minors with Lucas Erceg and Dallas Carroll both having disappointing seasons with the bat last year, but it's still really hard to see Lawrie getting significant playing time with the major league team.

Interesting looking at some of the defensive metrics. 2B = 1421 2/3 innings, -7 DRS, -9.0 UZR/150 3B = 3674 2/3 innings, +32 DRS, +0.7 UZR/150 The +32 DRS is skewed as he was a +31 in 2011/2012 and then posted a +4, 0, -3 in 2013, 2014 and 2015. So he kept getting worse. Apparently he did not play any 3B with the White Sox in 2016, only 2B. Definitely looks like a better 3B than 2B.

That's the big question right there. I don't think there is any debate when looking at the history of this player. He's a million dollar talent with a 10 cent head. I don't think it's too late for him. But his patience will likely be tried with the Brewers because he'll start the year in the minors and Hiura and Erceg have to be considered the favorites to play 2B and 3B in AAA to start the year. Lawrie probably has to start in AA and work his way back up. I'm surprised the Brewers could even find a spot for him. Hopefully this is not an indication that Stearns just doesn't think that Erceg is a major league player.

Sounds like the Brewers and the Padres are the only teams currently interested. I expect that maybe one or two more will jump in after Machado signs. I predicted Moustakas to Philadelphia figuring they would miss out on Harper and Machado and then would hit the lower tiers of free agency pretty hard. Moustakas seems like a good fit there as Franco's significant OBP problems continue. The market seems so slow on Moustakas that I would be surprised if he got any multi-year offers and wouldn't rule out that his deal would be less than the last one (5.5 million plus 1 more million as a mutual option). If it ends up in the 4-5 million area, then he really should be on the table for any team that could use third base help because that price-tag shouldn't scare off rebuilding or small market teams. There are many teams that could probably use some help at 3B. -Angels currently have Zach Cozart at 3B and David Fletcher at 2B. Cozart could go back to 2B where his glove would likely have more of an impact and Fletcher goes to utility infielder which is what he was projected as. -Toronto probably starts the year with Brandon Drury at 3B. Moustakas is a huge upgrade over Drury and (1) good bridge to get them to Guerrero (2) trade bait when Guerrero gets to the majors. -Would be a cheap enough investment for the Royals to generate some fan interest as I think he was a favorite there. -White Sox have Yolmer Sanchez at 3B and he's a lifetime .242/.293/.368/.661 hitter. And that's just a start, definitely a few more teams that could use help at 3B. And Steamer projects Moustakas as a 2.7 WAR player next year so it's surprising there isn't at least a half dozen teams after him. Should be noted that Boras is his agent and may still be running around throwing out a 3 year, 45 million dollar demand...that would explain a lack of interest from most clubs.

I am not overselling Sanchez. Is he right around #20 on most top prospects lists? #13 at Baseball America, #27 at MLB Pipeline, #23 at Baseball Prospectus. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=sanche000six I think it would be you underselling Sanchez since you have ignored what is clearly the consensus opinion of the player. And as for Peralta, if he was so dominant why did the Brewers take him out of the rotation? For every good number (3.72 FIP, 11.0 K/9) there was another number that was just average or sub-par (4.25 ERA, 96 ERA+, 4.6 BB/9). The last month he was a regular in the starting rotation was August and during that month he had a 5.81 ERA. That performance jumps him from ~#100 to about ~#30 on the top prospects list? I don't see it. The reason I use all these prospect lists, WAR calculations, surplus value charts is to try to take my bias completely out of it.

I wonder what percentage of people with legitimate disabilities were offended by the term disabled list? My guess is just about 0% until some non-disabled do-gooder thought they would save the world by pointing out this gross indiscretion being committed by MLB. And after that gross indiscretion was pointed out, the amount of disabled people offended by this term probably went from about 0% to 0.2%.

I'm not sure what the most eye-catching number is during his recent history? Maybe the 101 home runs he's allowed during the last three seasons.

Makes me wonder if the Brewers were ever engaged with the Marlins on Realmuto, pre-Grandal signing? I think I would have given up a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package and not looked back. Sanchez is floating around 20 on the top 100 prospects lists...at best Peralta was scraping the bottom of the top 100. Alfaro was around #70 on the top 100 when he graduated, and since he is between 1 and 2 years of service time it's really hard to tell if his value goes up from there or if it goes down. It wouldn't be crazy to put him in the same class as Woodruff although Alfaro was a bit higher and bats carry a higher prospect surplus value than arms because they are a bit easier to project. How much better is Ashby than Stewart? Take out the Brewer bias and just looking at prospect lists, the Philadelphia package is far, far better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I'd put the surplus value of the Phillies package at Sanchez (55.1 million...#21 pitcher) + Alfaro (24.9 million...will rate him as equivalent to #75 hitter on top 100 as there is not enough of a WAR history to do a surplus value calculation) + Stewart (2.2 million...just call him a role player prospect) and not really put any real significance on the international bonus pool money = total of 82.2 million. I was thinking 70-80 million for Realmuto and think this is a very solid return for him. Peralta (16.6 million equivalent to #95 pitcher on top 100) + Ashby (5.5 million as role player prospect) + Nottingham (5.5 million as role player prospect) = 27.6 million in surplus value....package from Philadelphia about 3 times better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I think a package from Milwaukee that approximates the Philadelphia package would have been something like Burnes/Woodruff/Turang/Henry.

A blog (sorry no link) indicates that Ken Rosenthal has reported the following: MLB proposed: -Pitchers must face at least three batters -Mound visits reduced from 6 to 4 in 2019 and from 4 to 3 in 2020 -Rosters expand from 25 to 26 in 2020 -September rosters decrease from 40 to 28 in 2020 -DL goes back to 15 days -Time optioned player must stay in minors goes back to 15 days MLBPA proposed: -Penalize draft position if teams don't win a certain number of games over a certain amount of seasons -DH for National League Manfred could just go ahead and implement: -20 second pitch clock -Reduce mound visits from 6 to 5 -SPRING TRAINING AND ALL-STAR GAME ONLY - running placed on second base to start inning if the score is tied after 10 innings

Obviously they can't expect a pitcher to pitch with a legitimate injury. So what happens when Counsell really only wants to use a pitcher for one hitter? Does the pitcher suffer a mild hamstring strain after pitching to that first batter (when he's not actually hurt at all)? What are the ramifications if this happens? Ballclub gets fined if the pitcher only pitches to one hitter and then has to leave a game? If the pitcher exits after one hitter, will it be a mandatory trip to the DL so the team loses him for the next 10 days? There would have to be some sort of penalty, otherwise the rule will be abused by pretty much every team in the league. Why would MLB open a can of worms like this when is seems completely unnecessary?

DH is bad news for Brewer fans IMO. Take the players that got the most DH at-bats for AL clubs last year, and the average salary was 11.6 million dollars. Median salary was 11 million. That would have been over 10% of the Brewers payroll. There was a reason that Selig wanted out of the AL all those years ago, the DH puts small market teams at a disadvantage. Brewer fans might love it now because they can just stick Braun right in there. But they will hate it two years from now when Braun is gone and Cubs or Cardinals give a big masher a 5 year, 90 million contract...a contract the Brewers cannot afford for a guy that gives the team zero value defensively.

I think it's a big enough deal to have it's own thread. I have to admit that I dislike every single proposed change that is listed below. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25935056/mlb-players-discussing-rule-changes-alter-game Dueling proposals from MLB on Jan. 14 and the union on Friday covered a wide range of topics, according to sources. Among them include: A three-batter minimum for pitchers A universal designated hitter A single trade deadline before the All-Star break A 20-second pitch clock The expansion of rosters to 26 men, with a 12-pitcher maximum Draft advantages for winning teams and penalties for losing teams A study to lower the mound A rule that would allow two-sport amateurs to sign major league contracts

Report is that he makes 1.75 million if on the major league roster. So it is, in effect, a split contract. It probably has only been termed a minor league deal because the Marlins 40-man roster was full prior to adding Granderson. Like long ball, I fully expect Granderson to make the team. Can't see a guy who has that much money riding around on the AAA bus for very long.

I think a fair deal could look something like this. 2020 = 10.4 million 2021 = 10.4 million 2022 = 10.4 million 2023 = 10.4 million 2024 = 10.4 million (Player option, Brewers pay Shaw 2 million if he opts out) 2025 = 18 million (Team option, Brewers pay Shaw 3 million if they opt out) So the guarantee for Shaw would be 5 years, 55 million. If he's so good he opts out after 2023, it is a 4 year, 43.6 million dollar deal. If the Brewers retain him through the entire length of the deal, it's 6 years, 70 million. Before one says that Shaw is really getting short-changed here, consider that Moustakas has earned about 25 million total in his career so far and might be playing on deals that are worth 6 to 8 million per season from here on out. This deal would guarantee Shaw 55 million, more than twice what Moustakas has made through his first free agent season. For those who say it's too risky for Milwaukee, Shaw has been a solid 3.5-4 WAR player over the last two years and there isn't any reason to think that total will dramatically fall over the next few seasons. As we've seen, 9 million per WAR is looking like an unrealistic number in the current marketplace. But say 1 WAR is only worth 60% of the 9 WAR figure...that's 1 WAR = 5.4 million. 55 million/5.4 = 10.2 wins / 5 seasons = 2.04 WAR per season...Shaw would only need to be about a 2 WAR player per season for this to be a solid deal for Milwaukee. Also note that the biggest single year committment (other than 2025 which the Brewers could decline) is 10.4 million which could very well represent < 10% of their yearly payroll from here on out. I think it would be a fair deal and something both sides should think about. I've pretty much given up on Erceg so Shaw seems like as good a candidate as any to extend. About the only thing I worry about is his hitting against lefty pitching last year, was a problem in 2018 but really wasn't a problem in 2017.

Who is paying for that? Pretty unlikely it would be MLB or an owner. If the answer is me, the taxpayer, then I would say this is a terrible idea.

I beg your pardon. I have read that Jeffress was facing a lifetime ban in a couple different spots. Did not realize it only applied to the minor leagues. I stand corrected and hope my posts don't cause any further confusion down the road.

If he'd suffer a catastrophic knee injury in his first training camp then the year 1, year 2, year 3 and year 4 dollars are not guaranteed, although it would be a lock that the team would probably IR him instead of releasing him so year 1 money could be considered money in the bank 99.9999% of the time. I'm just really convinced that Murray likes to play football more than baseball. I don't think the money part is a big factor as the actual guaranteed money is fairly close. If anything factors in other than his simple love for one game versus the other, it probably has to do with going to the big show right away in football while with baseball he'd get to ride around on that minor league bus for about 3 years which probably isn't all that attractive of an idea.

Easy to look back and say maybe Jeffress didn't get what he could have got in terms of his current contract. I think that's a really, really, really big maybe. If I'm a GM who hasn't had him on my team, I'd be very "cautious" when it came to Jeffress. One failed test away from a lifetime suspension. Seemed he was over his problems but then had the embarrassing DWI arrest. People can point out that the team would get their money back if Jeffress is suspended again, but if that suspension would happen in May then it would be a big piece taken out of the bullpen and that season's money could have been spent elsewhere during the previous off-season. Could Jeffress land a 2 year, 14 million dollar deal down the road? I could see that. But I'd have my doubts about anything much over that. Even though all Brewer fans, myself included, would like to believe he's completely over his problems, it only takes one brief lapse to relapse and that could be the end of his major league career. I think with incentives he made 2.25 million last year and if he repeats that this year he'll be up around 3.75 million. That's not terrible for a guy that is one failed test away from a very lengthy suspension and had a very poor start to the 2017 season. He had to have some questions about if he even had a career after Texas let him go, and now it looks like he has a pretty decent chance to put 10 million dollars on top of what he made earlier in his career.

One would look at Shaw and think he's pretty much a slam dunk to get at least a 3 year, 42 million dollar contract on the market if he continues to do what he's done over the last three years. Slash lines from 2016-2018: Shaw = .253/.334/.473/.807 Moustakas = .260/.314/.490/.804 And both are pretty solid gloves. One might argue that Shaw has the ability to play 2B, but I don't think that would factor much into a team's decision making on Shaw because it's unlikely most teams would be looking at him to log significant innings at 2B. I do think Shaw would be a more attractive offensive player based on the OBP advantage, but I'm an OBP guy and would admit that I have an obvious bias when it comes to that statistic. So while a 3 year, 42 million dollar deal seems super reasonable for a 3.5-4 WAR player like Shaw is...well there is Moustakas with a similar slash line having to play on 6 million dollar deals on a season-to-season basis. If I was Shaw's agent I'd kind of be looking at the following earnings after the 4.675 million he makes in 2019: 2020 = 6.5 million (arbitration) 2021 = 8.25 million (arbitration) 2022-2024 = 45 million (3 years, 15 million per season or maybe 3 years, 14 million per season with a 3 million buyout on a fourth season) So if I'm his agent, the first number I would throw the Brewers is 5 years, 60 million total covering the 2020-2024 seasons, and would be pretty willing to work down from there especially when seeing what has happened on the free agent market over the last couple off-seasons (especially with Moustakas). Clancy's five year, 47 million dollar offer that started this is not crazy low IMO. But if I was his agent, I'd have a hard time going below 11 million per season...once it gets that low I'd rather wait and just play the free agency game after the 2021 season.

I'd only have an interest in adding a lefty. I think Liriano is done. Minimal interest in Brett Anderson but wouldn't completely rule him out. He was pretty much league average in BABIP and HR/FB%...so there doesn't appear to be anything fluke-ish about the 4.48 ERA. That's probably what he is at this point, a pitcher that will post a ~4.50 ERA. His xFIP was a much better 3.91 but his strikeout rate was terrible (5.27 K/9). His lack of durability is what steers me away in the end. While all the talk is happening that involves some bigger names, my best guess is that Stearns is done with the all major moves and is likely trolling the market looking for some "lower end" lefty pitching as insurance. Only two lefties on the 40 man if Suter is subtracted. That has to be a concern.

Agree 100%. Knebel is as good as anybody when he's on, but to this point he's been very volatile and I don't think the ever harnesses his control where he fits in that class of truly elite reliever. No question that he'll continue to have stretches where he is great...but at the same time this is a guy that had a 5+ ERA on August 21st and got sent to the minors. If Jeffress and Hader continue what they did for most of last year....and say if someone like Woodruff gets put in the pen and dominates (and he's been very good as a MLB reliever so far)....I'd consider trade Knebel this season if he was pitching well and I got a good enough offer.