brewcrewdue80

I've committed to him becoming a 1b with 3b ability if the team would need it. Considering we now have Shaw as well as Erceg. His height intrigues me at 6'5" and that HR power in HS. I think there will come a point when he's mashing them in the 30s. You'd think he'd be a great defender having come out of HS as a SS. So I feel good about calling him a sleeper.

I'm continually confused about what how many "aces" or "TOR starters" people think there are in MLB. Between the Archer discussion and this comment, people are really boiling this down to pretty much Kershaw. Last year, there were only 11 guys in all of MLB that had 200 IP and a sub-4 ERA. Wouldn't that, by definition, qualify as TOR? Some of that 11 is due to injuries maybe that newer 10day DL. Ace himself Kershaw didn't qualify under that 200IP and wouldn't have qualified 3 of the last 4 seasons. I get what you're suggesting in stats to overall pitchers. If a guy would hit rank of 20, that should equal an Ace no? But you can probably find 30 pitchers who'd face that guy or more that you'd rather have start over them. That's sorta where I rank TOR types vs a #3. How would that guy pair up vs another guy you'd consider TOR. Anyway, I'll just say a Breakout will be Harrison even further after a breakout season. Bounce back: Isan Diaz by far. too talented to post a season like his last year. Bust: Corey Ray and agree on Trent Grisham. In that wonderful Harrison vid with Ray in it I believe it was mentioned Ray has been adjusting his leg kicks in ABs. I think that problem continues for him searching for something to work that he doesn't trust it's inconsistencies thus never getting comfortable and is bad. Grisham, I fear my predraft dislike is coming true. He's not a high ceiling guy. Which with the amount of OFs in the system make him a fail. Some point I hope we get value in trading him. Sleeper: Gatewood. He had a drastic improvement just not a complete season improvement. He's growing though with Harrison(included in that video) and he's obviously worked hard to improve his game each of the last 2 seasons. I believe he's on the cusp to be an on notice top 100 prospect. Think about it, he had 23 games in AA with 10 XBH out of 22 and a .757 OPS. 40 2bs last year for a HR derby winner out of HS. One could think a little lift turns that natural power in to 25+HRs and for a 1b bat much more in line with a typical 1b expectations.

Ah, thanks. I couldnt find it when I went back a few pages though I was skim reading. Pretty much the same rate as Duffy then which is still better than prospects+salary.

I think someone posted 24QS last year? I mean that's easily far more than Danny Duffy who costs way more+prospects while barely reaching just 24 total Starts. This is the type of Starter a team needs for back end of your rotation. I love QS stats because a QS should net being in a winnable game. You gotta pitch 6innings to even qualify, something Suter or Hader will struggle at doing. At the same time why I love Woodruffs potential as I see him as a QS stat stuffer. In this age of RP getting to the bullpen with a lead after 6 innings is mostly whats asked from good starters. So I'm really in to Chacin's signing.

I'd think this trade buys the Rays more time to find the magic deal for Archer or Odorizzi now or not til next offseason. Meet their price as both values cant be tied to some salary relief. Rays dont need that relief atm.

I remember Chacin early in then beginning having a filthy slider or curve? Some breaking pitch that when hes on, he's a shoe in QS. When its not youre getting 4IP 5ER with 4/5BBs. The talent is there, the control just needed to catch up and he was a ToR type pitcher. Id say he was a target in trade threads previously due to that talent and the Coors factor. Or the ability in lack of Coors factor. Starter or maybe wicked RP down the stretch. He's got value if he performs any better than overall numbers last season to be traded next offseason if the minor guys are pushing the envelope to get starts. Im okay with the move simply because he has upside, a type of pitcher to be worth a lot oneseason and little to none another season. Now for the last name fun in batting lineups. Arcia Chacin' or Pina Chacin' what will that become t-shirt makers?

Maybe it is just the personnel but it just seems like they've went away from an offense that includes the tight end. This week was also glaring for me that maybe Rodgers is a bit selfish when running our offense. Only 13 rushing attempts? That's just flat out unacceptable. We finally have a two-headed monster back there and we could have done a way better job at limiting the time our defense had to be on the field if we chose to run a game plan to do so. Maybe we do need a different offensive coach. One that would tell Rodgers to get the ball out of his hands, on time, and to rely more on the run game to churn that clock. Seems to be working in places like Philly, LA, Jax, etc... Part of the blame on running so few is being behind. We don't run a 3-4. I'm glad to see a couple Packers beat-writers acknowledge it. Last year I suggested we needed to build a team around our nickel defense, or we needed to draft players with enough cover skill to be able to utilize our 3-4 on most downs. But as they say, we play roughly 80% nickel/dime these days, and this is the second straight year where we've been heavily utilizing our 4th, 5th, and 6th cornerbacks. We really need to hit on a few draft picks. I'd be happy to trade down if we could net a few more 2nd and 3rd rounders. Those are where Ted and Ron earned their keep in good drafts. Well its a scheme that presents only 1 Defensive end type player or now just glorified LBs to attempt to pass rush, that fails to put pressure on the QB who then picks apart a weak secondary. So often it's a throw around the corner LB or run past them when they run up the field past rb/qb. Get caught cheating/sucking up and so and so is wide open in a soft zone. I'm tired of the hard calls to fire TT that its not Capers' fault to be stuck with the talent he gets to work with. Um, it's Capers scheme to have "hybrid LBs/Secondary" it's not like TT is drafting DEs to play LB within Capers scheme who dont belong in it.

I was letdown with this movie in feelings with the whole Rose character intro til end. Every scene that involved her after the initial scene ruined the film. Any scene involving Rey&Luke was must watch. Only the who are you? And tease that Kylo knew Rey parents to turn in to nothing. I'd have been interested in Luke learning who she was, the connect to her great power. With Kylo its half Skywalker blood line. Chewy comic scenes I hated. Speaking of, how did Rey get on the Falcon after the Snoke scenes? Luke/Kylo fight. Jedi mind trick to produce a light saber that fights Kylo's? Because if the dark side has such stronger power, why arent they murdering their jedi/rebellion counterparts via Luke's use/ability? But man just so much angst with the Rose scenes beyond the first 2minutes. Thumbs down to the movie for producing her scenes.

Dom Capers-gone along with the tired 3-4 scheme and hire a DC that will run a 4-3 scheme or even some 5-2 scheme. Draft all offensive players this draft as you know how to run your offense, you won't know how defense runs the new DC scheme. Sign a DE in FA to fill out the new 4-3-a pass rusher would be nice next to Daniels. Attempt to trade Matthews before cutting him outright to get out of his payroll obligation. (use the money to perform above) Sign a FA O-Lineman. Right Tackle preferred, but I'd take any upgrade at Guard or Center. If there's inability to sign a FA from the above recommendations-go sign a Safety and consider trading Dix in draft for a 2nd-4th round pick to use on Offense. Tight Ends! draft or acquire one. It's terrible to be lacking in this for so long. (Fumagalli?)

I've said this before, but what value is Duffy when he's paid 14mil+ the next 4 years? To me that is his market value or barely below. 24-26 Games started the last 4 seasons, never above. At this stage It'd be someone like Ortiz and then say Je'Von Ward for the deal. Maybe we could get a Cody Ponce and Troy Stokes value trade without losing our highest ranked SP prospect. But again, we're acquiring a guy who won't be seeing the playoffs if we made them unless he spent some time on the DL or in the bullpen. Not exactly what I'd like to hope for when paying 14mil-Brewers 2nd highest if he was traded for. Duffy as a SP has a career 3.81ERA which BRef pegs him for 144IP with 1 save and a 3.94ERA....so there's confusion on what he really is. As a RP it's 2.08. I mean I get it, he's solid, but not removing top tier prospects solid when you can just pay Lynn again the same kind of money for results on a 33Game starter vs a 25game starter without parting any prospects. Merrifield doesn't move the needle for me. You have Hiura and Diaz upcoming and he has too much team control remaining that we don't need at that position. If Merrifield slugged like his career numbers in the minors he'd have been closer to a .715 OPS this year. You gotta believe he's not hitting 19HRs again next season when his previous full season high in the minors was 10. And while he offers 30+SBs it comes at an 80% rate; 72% in the minors. Which averages out to what Villar has given us the last 2 seasons. 76%. He's a slightly higher floor offensively but equal ceiling if not a touch below than Villar. You'd hang your hat on the defensive improvement but you know KC would ask for a guy like Diaz in a trade. What's the purpose

I think it depends on his spring. He is an option for both. I find it funny so many people are complaining or upset about it. On here, Twitter, and so on. It’s not a big name. It’s not a guy who has pitched like he’d help us too much but at same time....he is low risk, see what he does guy. If he falls face first, who cares.... we lose nothing.Just because it is our first move doesn’t mean on Dec. 17 we are done making moves. Still over two months away from pitchers reporting! Gallardo is pretty much a little more expensive waiver claim. Give him a shot & see if he bounces back. Again, turning 32, up tick in velocity, back home.... see if he can find it again. If he does, that’s awesome for us. If he sucks as starter & in pen....dfa & move on! Wasting 1.5 million or what ever he gets is not going to wreck us.... Welcome home Gallardo! The problem is April/May records count. Give him 6starts and he goes 0-4 with a 5+ERA and then dump this project....come October, those 6 games had the won 3 of them and it meant playoffs. Just a waste to not put a bigger winning emphasis to begin a year. If it turns out so or so who would have cost 4-10million more for this season produces well...why arent we exhausting some more money when theres room to do so? Just looks bad.

Verdugo is to well a thought of prospect to think the Dodgers would attempt to move away from for Braun.

In Walker it is consistent BA and the OB BB-Ks I think the love is about. High Floor about equal to his ceiling. I don't blame you on not wanting to pay 10million or more for 3 years. He's under 115games each of last 2 seasons and aging. You also deal with the fact we don't need a 2b most likely beyond this season. You need a deal with Walker to be friendly enough to likely trade or just a 1year deal overpaying him so you don't have to deal with a 2nd year contract situation.

I dunno on this signing bringing impact to the 25man. I'd guess bullpen/swingman job, but not a full time starting position in the rotation. If the signing is more than 2.5mil, this is a terrible move. Gallardo hasn't been good for awhile now. You knew he was going downhill before leaving Milwaukee. Hes shown what downhill is. In no way do I think a "guy" can tweak him and fix him to be a positive SP. Bullpen it has to be, or just some ticket selling in Spring for comeback home feel. Wasnt it Capuano a few years back?

Baseball Prospectus has him 11th. I'm not saying disregard B-R in this case, but they are the clear outlier. His HR/FB ratio doesn't bother me that much. It's around league average for a starter, which means to me that he's not getting hurt too much by it. Coupled with the fact that he's been a GB pitcher for most of his career, I do not think he's predisposed to blow up if he started pitching half of his games in Milwaukee. It does worry me that his GB% dropped precipitously in 2017, but it's a one year thing. I guess I'd have to dig into it a little more as far as why his GB% dropped. I mean, from what I saw from him his slider was as disgusting as ever. Perhaps he was having FB command issues? I dunno. Complete aside, but he's really freaking fun to watch pitch. I know that shouldn't go into the Brewers trading for him, but he's passionate about his craft. I like guys that jaw at the other team, as long as it doesn't cross a line. I would be more likely to buy a ticket to a Brewers game and drive 400 miles if I knew Archer was pitching in a Brewers uni. He's one of the few pitchers in baseball I would say that about. Grienke, who the Brewers may have an off chance at getting, would be another. There ya go. It's around League Average. Not Ace average. Kluber .9, Scherzer 1.0, Gonzalez .9, Strasburg Baseball leading .7, Verlander 1.2, Grienke 1.1, Sale 1.0, Stroman .9, Carrasco .9, Severino 1.0 Top 10 BWAR pitchers rates HR/9 Archer was 1.3 and 1.2. I get it's nitpicking such a small amount but with his innings pitched that amounts to 4-7 more HRs given up per season than what the other Aces are giving up. HRs are a true outcome. It's his difference of being a 3.3ERA pitcher and a 4ERA pitcher. Miller Park isn't reducing his HR rate. 4.05ERA last two seasons Giving him 6 runs less makes him a 3.78ERA 10 less is 3.6 ERA. Based on his career 1.46runs given up avg on HRs dropping 5 HR is 7.3 runs. That puts the ERA between 3.6 and 3.78 for last 2 seasons. I'd venture that is the average "better Archer than last 2 seasons" Archer. Not the former 3.2-3.3 Archer. Hader-3.26 minors ERA Ortiz-3.07 minors ERA Woodruff-3.29 " " Burnes-1.74 " " Peralta-3.28 " " I know most likely these guys won't pitch to that same ERA but .5 increase is under 3.8ERA so what is Archer adding to the rotation for a 6IP starter? Career best 6.2IP per start in '15. Know how HRs are glossy for batters? That is how I'm seeing Archer is the Ks for Pitchers. Archer was 4th in baseball in Ks, but the only one to have an ERA above 4. Degrom was 3.53, Carrasco 3.29, Verlander 3.36, and Carlos Martinez 3.64 to be over a 3ERA. The other 5 were below 3 ERAs. All those 5 SPs we are looking forward to are at AA to ML. At any point with AA experience you could see one promoted to the ML club. skipping AAA. Especially the stats Burnes and Peralta are putting up. There is one thing you'd get with Archer...most likely..a full season of starts. But that just brings me to my advocate in a pitcher-Lance Lynn who you can just sign for say 45-70million. Who's crutch this past season was HRs given up(:O) but something he must have been near tops in baseball with .8, .8, .6, .6, and .7/9 rates his previous 5 seasons started(if .7 by Strasburg led baseball this year) Lynn still managed a 3.43 ERA this season with his bad return from TJ surgery. Yeah his Fip was up there, but you know what the HR rate compared to Archer's just not the Ks Lynn doesn't produce. What must be the difference? Lynn's career Hard hit rate is below 29% while Archer has had 1 season below 30%. Something at 39% this year. A stat Fangraphs doesn't list? Hits per 9. BRef does and Archer's career is 8.0 but 8.2 in '16 to 8.6 this last season. Stats that would be fearful more when you're giving up a higher Hard hit pct than previous. And that is my final Chris Archer post as I can't put up any more numbers to my side of the argument against Archer in trade when a guy like Lynn is out there to be signed(Chatwood prevously) Or the amount of Minor League near ready pitchers in the system to pull from.

My thought just now, is think about this. Tampa has been living off of the trade returns from SPs for how long now? The notion when the rebuild was evidently needed in '13 and '14 and that beginnings were to get in to a mold that Tampa succeeds with, small market 90win seasons. You know how close we are to doing that? Rather than throw away two the likes of Hader/Woodruff/Ortiz/Burnes/Peralta on down to maybe Ponce/Lemons/Bickford, we take what we have from the minors, and a guy like Nelson is pawned off after this season or '19's trade deadline. We're in foreign territory in that we actually have a minors that has quality SP options beyond 1 every 5years. We added 2 last season, and it stands to add 2 more this year with 3-4 not far behind. I want to that come to fruition. Before seeing it explode in our unlucky franchise' face. We're not the Cardinals who find gold out of poop. So what will happen is we trade for Archer at the cost of Woodruff/Ortiz and end up 1.5BWar Archer while Tampa enjoys a 2.5-3.5 WAR from those two. We can't fill mistake moves that hurt the franchise as much as these trade ideas with FA signings like the Cubs do. What was a large/long window for the Cubs franchise, is now curious beyond the next 2 years.

It wouldn't take a lot for us to dip down to 73 wins. We won 86 but we're going to be without Nelson for an undetermined amount of time and if he gets back during the season it will probably just be to get some innings, not expecting ace like production. That's probably a 3-4 win drop and we're already down to 82 or 83 wins. If Anderson regresses to say a 1.5 WAR pitcher (last year's 3.3 WAR was more than he accumulated in 400+ innings over his career previously) then we could be in for another 2 win drop and we're down to 80 or 81. Knebel could regress, Santana could regress, Shaw could regress, Braun could get hurt and all of those things happening and they aren't as far fetched as some think, then we're probably in the 72-75 win range. Now obviously we could get breakouts from Arcia, Phillips, Brinson etc to push the win total back up but you had a lot of guys that are older doing things they never came close to doing before, so projections are probably going to have them regressing to somewhere between what they had done prior to last year and what they did last year and weighted closer to the lower end because there's more of a sample size of production or lack thereof. Don't forget the likely uptick in having Woodruff over Garza or Peralta having starts. The win change from #4/5 whomever that may end up being(Hader/FA sign/Trade?) That is one thing I'm looking forward out of this club and from within the minors, are the quality additions to a #4 or #5. I do expect Anderson to regress back some to his norm, but then again, maybe that is offset by play from Villar. Aguilar/Pina could be strong regress candidates. I'd still like to think the team is closer to 80wins than 70 wins with a bright future/more upside than regression concerns.

The difference his 1st 3years, and last 2 are the HRs given up. And thats why Im not in on an Archer trade with the proposed cost. Miller Park is a favorable HR park. I think giving up 30 is more likely than his 1st 3years not giving up 20 or more. That means getting a 4ERA Archer vs below 3.5 Archer. HRs are up in the last year+ and Archer lays victim to that stat. Hes not that guy his 1st 3years.

Yelich is a 20/20 player away from Miami and just a 9/17 player in Miami. He offers just a 20%K rate for his career to go along with a 10%BB rate. He's a stud, and very capable to be Elite if put in the right stadium. I don't see a match, but I have watched him play quite a bit, and he's so close on making this game look easy. 300+/batting title type future, which with the BBs would likely put him in the .400+OB posting to go with probably over .500 slg. Now, it is completely dumb to trade him by the Marlins now that Stanton is off the books. I guess Jeter/Co. could be staring at the fact Yelich will have no protection around him in a lineup so his numbers should be worse as what's the reason to pitch to him when AAA level ability bats after him? So in that instance, I suppose his value wouldn't increase and rather than getting 3 top 100 guys+ you only get 2 when trading time comes. I wouldn't trade him, maybe he will have more value during a deadline with another great season outside the lineup circumstances he's about to endure. But in overall talent, I'd put Yelich up there top 20 OF in all of baseball with top 10 ability if he were in a better home stadium.

In that list, it has to be Tony Watson as a perfect set up man for Kneble. He's been doing that most of his career and now has some saves behind him in the worse case scenario that Kneble were injured to boot. 70 IP durability for a backend career seems great to add.

I'd aim at just one Starting pitcher that will fill up innings. The idea on Jesse Chavez makes it seem Stearns may only desire a 1 year rental and growth from within the minors to fill it's needs when they are ready. Ortiz, Burnes, and Peralta all seen AA time. Dubon made it in to AAA. Right there come June could be your next SP/2b future. Also the Santana push to trade rumors, maybe for a SP, which opens Brinson's time to play. (sorta like Davis' trade opened for Santana) Maybe that's the biggest need, to continue in a holding pattern to keep open space for these guys to join the team and not get blocked with a 2 year or longer contract.

Walker, Lynn, Cobb, Davis are still out there-Arrieta(yuck) as well. Maybe not making a true move on the better options for RP is keeping an opening for Hader to be the setup man and Kneble clean up. Barnes/Jeffress 7th inning duties. To go on with the multiple arms within the minors to be looked at. It does take two to tango, could have thrown great offers at Chatwood or even Swarzak but they had no desire to play in or for Milwaukee. Like I said, there's still those big 5 yet to be signed, though with Davis it becomes a closer issue. I fine with how things are going because I like the future of the ball-club as it stands. I'm more behind a 2018 trade deadline or offseason moves than at this current state of the franchise/rebuild. The minors may have had their best season ever in terms of performance/growth in a number of talented players below AAA. Many of those players are now knocking at AAA door the final step before advancing on to the team. The help may be within versus outside.

This is definitely a leap of faith to just assume that Woodruff/Hader would be that good as starters. Only 44 starting pitchers had a WAR of 2.0 or better last year. It's much more likely they come in below that. WAR is a terrible stat to look at by itself. It's highly flawed. Davies was a 2.8 WAR last year and Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz all have better stuff overall and much higher ceilings. And that's my point, Hader is very talented and filthy, I believe he'll put up 2WAR with only say 21 starts. In Woodruffs, I think he's a little bit better than Davies and will go a full season of starts to achieve 2+WAR value. I don't trust the cost in prospects and their future value they bring to the ML team, to be worth the upgrade Archer may bring. I don't like the Nelson aspect of being out for a lot of games and the concern how he pitches upon return. I don't trust the timing to throw away high quality prospects with further gains upcoming to know what mold they fit in the future, while likely playing Archer for a lost season of control. Then you have Archer's future projections stated above in his surplus value, being lower the following years, at a time when guys like Ortiz/Burnes/Peralta could be beginning having positive years helping the ML team to that value Archer is seeing declining.

Villar isn't going to get them a 4 time All Star still in his prime and relatively cheap. Be real. Villar and Broxton won't either. um yeah a real 4 time all star with his career .282/.320/.413/.733 line. And just an average defender. Can't wait then for sure on the All-Stars lining up for Arcia after his .277/.324/.407/.731 with borderline elite Defense at this point. Villar's career line is .256/.325/.397/.722 a projection of .268/.338/.430/.768 by BRef fot 2018 and making less than Castro. I'd think Miami would be happy to swap Castro for Villar straight up. I'd hate the deal personally, as I don't see Castro as a game changer. Villar when he is on base can with his basestealing, albeit one that has some poor tendencies. I mean where is Castro in the Milwaukee batting order? 7th? It's not like he carries a 1 or 2 OBP.

Fair enough. So Archer is worth approx 4War a year. Now in figuring out his value, its said an average player is worth 2War. And I think its fair to say the Brewers possess at or near that in pitching with Woodruff/Hader. So while Archer would have "147mil" surplus value, he isnt giving Milwaukee "147" value above what they already possess. Saying that, I dont think Milwaukee has to fork up that 147mil value for Tampa to agree on a trade. Being a pitcher, I think a trade like Brinson, Ortiz, Ponce, with say one of the Brewers catcher prospects or RP prospects should get it done. Not the crazy high proposals I read here. A note on Ponce, he's that perfect most likely to be a 3 SP that Tampa will flip after awhile. At worst hes a late inning stud. That is 3 quality future MLs to take for Archer. Also a note. Brinson is what 10-17th-ish? In prospect ranking? 1month in to the season how many graduate from the list and bumps him in to the top 10? His surplus value jumps a bit no? So I'd expect Stearns to hold him higher in the Surplus value department.