brewcrewdue80

I agree on Kneble for extensions. Has an injury and what does he become? Loses 2 MPH on his FB, how effective does he remain? You'd expect a big return at this time if traded. Extend him and now where does that notion stand? He's clearly going to be a 10+Mil RP as he approaches the end of just the 4 years. The extension would need somewhere in the 12.5-17mil range as the years extend past those 4. At some point, the money to his production takes his trade value from huge to salary relief quality. Talking maybe top 10 prospect in all of baseball, down to not even a top 10 prospect in just an average team's prospect system. On Shaw, it's his age, as well as production throughout a full season as mentioned. You can wait a year or two and see who he really is, the production as well as how your minors is producing. It'd be different if he was 22-24 like Arcia is. But he's not, you've got him through his prime. It'll be at a dollar value he too, like Kneble will bring huge return in trade when that moment comes(assuming the production remains) This is how this franchise competes. It needs to turnover players and not lock them up unless they are likely to produce to that deal, with Age being a big factor. Not to mention where the system sits. We don't need the Travis Shaw being our Pablo Sandavol, when a Travis Shaw is ML ready and now blocked. In this instance: Erceg, Gatewood, and Chad Mclanahan. or a Future 3b pick should he be a Keston Hiura type.

I posted o/u on 9.5 Badgers playoff rank. Not surprised. Schedule deems such and let's put it this way. It will all be corrected when/if the Badgers win the Big 10 championship game. If they don't, as I'm guessing models, media and such would predict, they aren't going to the Playoffs with 1 loss. Win out and that takes care of this on its own. Let's face it, the continued 1st half performances, would not go well vs a good team who scores 3 times in the 1st half, and now having to produce the good 2nd halves as the Badgers have done while behind a good team is so much more difficult. Think about OSU and Penn st. fans if WI was ahead of them. It would be absolutely argued, disgust with the schedule WI has gone through. Penn St. lost by 1 on the road to OSU. Lead near the entire game, and lose in final moments. Yeah, no way Penn. St is ranked below WI

Ugh, Miami. Sale Complete, so let's now unload the contracts that were signed to appeal a sale in the first place. When will they move the Franchise elsewhere? Sell the Stadium to a Soccer team. Gordon, for Villar makes some sense. I'd probably want something like 3mil a year so Gordon makes 10mil per the 3years we'd have him. But why don't we get stupid and Offer Braun to Miami for Stanton. If Stanton can hit 59HRs while in Miami, he could go for 70 easy here in Milwaukee. Take both Gordon and Stanton for Villar/Braun and why not just rid Corey Ray on them while we get rid of all our headaches. Stanton would certainly add butts in the seats. Approach the 3mil+ and what ends up being the gain in earnings to offset his contract? You could reasonably assume with a 60+ HR season he'd want to opt out and go to FA. If not, well I'm sure he's producing well for a few of the years beyond that. You look to trade him often after 2020. IF the deal affects your ability to operate.

Arcia is tops on an extension. Nelson would have been #2. Santana is #3. After that theres no reason to extend others til next offseason. Villar or Broxton played their way out of Extension worthy. I know I seen a lot of Shaw and Kneble call fors. Id rather wait a year, 1 to see similar or better production, 2 to gain another year idea on prospects, and 3 trade factors, they both have team contol a long contract extension, could turn in to Brauns where your stuck.

^^^^So Did Keon Broxton, better than Nieuwenhuis and his 2017 in less playing time. He lost his most value due to the defense he had in '17. Get back to the level he had in '16 and we wouldn't be as concerned to what War he's putting up and just a small tweak of improvement in his bat skills and he'd produce much more.

Broxton has some trade value. He's cheap and has team control. Super streaky, but the highs of said streaks are worth a lot to a team who maybe deals with an injured player to start next season, or come trade deadline. vs running a rth/5th OF out there not as good/experienced as Broxton is. You're overestimating the quality of CFs depth among 30 teams. Hes a solution for those teams or can be when an injury removes the starter they were rolling with.

Im not a fan at the moment. Im guessing, the deal allows Stearns to put either Villar or Perez up for trade. Dubon gets a longer look before a call up when/if needed. I cant see Sogard, Villar, and Perez remaining on Opening Day roster all together. This just solidifies the infield when that trade happens.

I understand that idea, Lynn doesn't have any of the bad numbers of seasons or extreme IP as those others. Doesn't have an injury riddled past. All he's done was be 14.9BWar in 5 seasons of Starting. A consistent 3WAR guy with Full season start ability. Unlike the past free agent signs. Not at all. Unload the wallet on Yu Darvish/Jake Arrieta or focus on controllable talent / our minors. Quit dancing around what we need and go after it or don't bother at all. Probably right, more of a I started a thread and suggestion hate. Because I can't seriously sit here reading all hate and not one or more supporting the idea. Two stats stick out on the worry side, his Fip and HR Rate, something that not Once, was a worry at any point in his career. Boom, terrible idea to sign him. Even Briggs shying away at a FA who immediately helps the team. So Sign Darvish, and go for it. Stats on Darvish compared to Lynn were pretty close. Worried on Lynn's HR rate, Darvish was at 1.3/9 too and career is 1/9 Darvish had as always a high K/9, but that was down this year. Lower bb rate. And that is the difference. the k/bb ratio and rates per 9. Here's the difference in Lynn's favor. Darvish has seen multiple DL stints. 1 year over 200IP. Wow. I mean, final stat. Career 1PA through order: .257/.321/.440-.723 2PA through order: .249/.328/.392-.720 3PA through order: .222/.310/.339-.649 4PA through order: .200/.294/.217-.511! How often do you see that?

It's gotta be a Cardinal thing with the hate. Yes, we have depth in the minors on pitching. And the need wouldn't be so bad for a SP had Nelson not require season ending surgery. And that's just it. We may be fine in depth, but you have Anderson, or Davies go down next season, you're left with such a young inexperienced rotation. Hope for Guerra to return to '16 form. There's another injury riddled Pitcher this season, Anderson missed his share of time this season. Is the answer Alex Cobb? Look, he had a 5.6 Fip in 5 starts, after missing all of 2015. 4.16 this year in 29 starts. Lynn again toughed it out for 33 starts after TJ in '16. Fip is correlating to the HRs he gave up. 13-16HRs the 4 seasons he pitched prior to this season, after the TJ. 27 this year. That screams outlier year to me, as does his Fip. Like stated earlier, he's a model of consistency. I don't chime in too often for a FA signing, but Lynn with the new QO cost is well worth it. Still a 3WAR pitcher this year with those concerns. I just don't get it.

MLBTR, says he is entering 2nd year of Super 2 Arb? Weird that they'd have an option on his last year. Also quite lights if he's making under 12mil for 2nd and 3rd year of Super 2 before what must be about 10 and 12million on option years. Wow, so here's the numbers 8:34am: The two options are valued at $8.5MM and $9.5MM, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). Both contain $500K buyouts. 8:26am: Anderson will be guaranteed $11.75MM over the two guaranteed years of the deal, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (on Twitter). MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, meanwhile, tweets that Anderson can earn up to $31.35MM over the four years if both options are exercised and if Anderson meets all of the incentives that are baked into the deal. Thanks Chase!

Personally that is pretty good to be that close in his FB the 1st year after that elbow injury. And that's the point. That 4.82 Fip comes with the September finish of 4Starts 14.2IP 20hits 16runs 15ER 10BBs but 14ks 3HRs. He went a full season's of 33 Games Started After the elbow injury out for a year. He wasn't shut down when he very well may have hit arm fatigue at that stage. On the positive, his Hits per 9 were less than career norms. He reduces his HR rate towards the norm he had prior to this post TJ season, one that also seen a strike zone raised that he like Davies maybe needed time to adjust to. Comparing him to Odorizzi is based on this year's peripherals to Odorizzi's career. Unlike the previous seasons Lynn has pitched. See, I'm betting on that he returns a little more to what he was previously but including the improved H/9. That would make that improvement with assuming an arm that won't tire out in September at 170IP but to his 200IP self of past. Lohse, came off a career year. Garza was near a career year prior to his trade. Lynn? A bad year for him the first after TJ. Based on all his seasons previously, he would seem to me to be the most consistent at being quality and while eating innings. That includes pretty much the numbers he put up in the minors. Ultra consistency. 3+WAR waiting for the taking.

I realize not to many are of the FA pitcher signing but I think Lynn is a very safe sign. In the Cubs' thread I noted he is seeking a Jordan Zimmerman type contract of 5/110. Based on BWar he's been a 3.4War value avg the last 3 seasons he's pitched. He came back from TJ in 2016 to post a 3.1BWar, but certainly was much higher prior to his final 4 starts in September where he went from 2.94ERA in 29starts, to his 3.43 finish this season at all 33 games started. One would imagine the 2nd season after TJ would allow him to perform a little more like his stats indicate for 14&15 seasons. You could maybe nab this kind of quality starter due to the end to last season and the TJ that we'd never even have a chance otherwise....and I'm guessing we have a 25% chance now, because I wouldn't be surprised he got 5/120 vs a 5/90-100 we'd part with. The payroll as it stands now can afford his 5year contract '18-'22. The tail end I realize the young guns on the team would need their payday, but also by then, Braun's would be gone. Say you offered him 5/100 and paid him 25 both '18 and '19 on the front-end. Now you more wiggle room down the road, as well as lower cost should you want to trade him. For a 3rd round pick cost, don't see how this isn't a good idea. I've always felt this guy is under-rated, a Fip his 1st 4 seasons never above 3.49. For once, this is a Cardinal SP who isn't riding a great year after numerous mediocre that we mistakenly sign away. Heck go 4/88 or something. You can afford to front load this deal on a SP that certainly is a high end #3 with #2 prior year stats.

Remember, these are early contract values, though. I imagine Harper starting at $30 and ending at $40/year. Maybe I'm undershooting that a bit, but they could backload their two big deals to make it work during the Heyward years. Yeah, and it's possible that somebody goes insanely high for Harper like maybe the Phillies. I think Arrieta goes 6/$175 and starts in the high 20s and ends in the mid 30s per year. You're probably right, though on Harper and also it's possible that the Cubs should use all of that money to overpay bullpen help. Might have been a bit off on Quintana/Rizzo, but that's pretty negligible in the projection. I'll again note that Harper isn't going to take a backloaded deal. He's going to want cash up front with opt outs. With the type of money he's going to command, he will surely have full authority to basically write out the contract however he chooses. I also don't think Lynn or Arrieta get the type of money you are referencing. The Zimmerman contract is awful. Awful contracts shouldn't be used as comps. Lynn will likely shoot for inflated Matt Garza money, 4/64 type of deal. Arrieta probably gets 4/80, maybe 4/90. I highly doubt anyone goes 5 years for a guy that will be 32 before opening day. No, I don't think Lynn's asking price is wrong. He's been a 3.4 BWAR SP the avg the last 3 seasons he pitched including this year's after TJ. if 1WAR is worth 7mil, He's staring at 23.8mil a year. Something that is higher than 5/110. Arrieta is a 14BWar the last 3 years (4.66) and 19.7BWar (4.93) when you go to 4years. You're looking at over 30mil near 35mil per year on that value. Lackey at 37/38 went for 16mil per. 32 for Arrieta isn't going to tax him over 30% of the value he's produced the last 4seasons.

Who else in the NL deserved this? Molitor will likely win in AL and for all of baseball with the Twins season to season change. But Really Counsell deserves the honor, as Minnesota was 83-79 in '15. The talent was there in place already, difference of performance.

BRef shows Quintana at 11.5, Rizzo at 16.5. Arrieta I'm guessing will approach 25-28mil. Harper 37-43mil a year. 41 for Heyward/Lester. Hendriks who has Cy Young potential stats, could be close at 15, but I'd think he's closer to 17mil if not 18mil because of yearly inflation on arb. David Price was worth 14mil at that stage what will be 6years earlier and for a poor team vs Luxury team. That would be 28/26/40/41/17 roughly or 152mil vs the 100mil you are guessing. You may think I'm over-reaching on Arrieta, but Lynn is seeking a 5/110 type deal as Jordan Zimmerman got. Never gotten a cy-young top 10 vote whereas Arrieta has a win and two top 10s 3straight years prior to this year. Bryant at 20, may actually be a touch high but pretty close. Considering how they did in '16 with Chapman and the dominance faced by Dodgers bullpen, I'd likely flip Arrieta for a Bullpen stud like Davis. Or in reality they aren't signing Harper. Just can't fit that contract...which likely is a 9-12 year deal because of age. Talking a 400+ commitment over next decade. A weakened system, with garbage draft picks/lost picks with signing QO types. They can't sustain the holes that will be and has already been created by age. They need to sign contracts they can move when needed, vs albatrosses that they are stuck with.

The guy was a 4th round selection. 5'7-8" tall. Could easily see being dropped quite a number of pegs with that height. The draft day writeup has him as a Speedy CF leadoff type with Gap power. If he's found a way to make gap power in to HR power, his production last season has to come with some optimism. Under a .292 BABIP so a .250 avg is something that luck should see higher. Put him in the .270s/.350s with 20/40 splits, what is keeping him down from nearing a top 100 list? That 4th round selection, which if it were a 2nd round or higher he's probably making lists this off-season.

Put this in perspective, Joe Thomas finally missed a SNAP at Tackle after 10+seasons and 167games. Meanwhile in GB we watch year after year both tackles down. Rodgers now down for the 2nd collarbone break another 1st quarter major injury. Not going to lie, but with so much support I have for Hundley, the injuries piling up just leave me questioning if there is another win this season. Odds are Hundley will be hurt before we face Cleveland with this disaster of an O-Line. It is so frustrating to see a guy like Bahktari or Bulaga miss time and then come back and immediately miss more time.

Fully agree with the Brewers farm producing quite a few really good Bullpen arms. Something that the Cubs had to trade high end prospects to establish. We've now got Kneble for at least 3 more seasons. 3 of those 5 named above ought to fill up the bullpen soon hoping 1 if not 2(Peralta/Ponce) become quality SPs. I'd guess Bickford is behind the 8ball as a SP and his stuff will be too good to wait for the Starter in him to arrive. With the depth of minors, you can still acquire a bullpen arm if it comes to that. You don't need a closer, just an arm to add depth at the ML level. And certainly, we could reach out and spend for one of the elites with the payroll allotment. Just really excited how well the Brewers are set up and that's with the 1st round pick blunders being Floor and no ceiling results.

Just don't see the need to trade team prospects for rentals. We have a number of guys that could be traded who bring something in future depth for them. Broxton, Villar, Thames, Aguilar, the 3 catchers not named Pina. Two FA contracts and two trades and continue on the way. Odorizzi alone doesn't move the needle towards a division champ.

Right here: At midpoint this season it was Cordell, Wren, and Reed to go behind Brinson and Phillips. Corey Ray was supposed to be in AA by this point and graduating to AAA when Phillips moved up. You are right to notice that the immediate depth isn't present, but with Brinson, and Phillips that is far more depth than the 4th and 5th OF options of Logan Schafer and Michael Reed. You said it yourself, there is Hernan Perez that stands to be the majority playing time for OF if!, IF 2 OFs go down of the 5 due to injury or lack of performance. The thing is, Brinson and Phillips are future cogs for an OF. Braun being hurt and missing serious time, leaves 1 of the 2 to play fulltime while this struggling concern gets to play 4th OF. You just go on with the struggle and play on. In Phillips, you know you're getting an elite defense out of him should the struggle be with his bat. Brinson is supposed to have a bigger ceiling so you await that to perform. Teams just don't have All-Stars as starters as well as 4th and 5th OFs. The Dodgers best bat in OF was Chris Taylor with an .850OPS. Houston meanwhile had Nori Aoki get playing time for them with Carlos Beltran their DH the majority of games played and a .666OPS DH for a WS team! Harrison is going to fast track himself the rest of his minors. Something has clicked for him, a guy who lacked baseball experience and was injured quite a bit his first two pro seasons. Big time athlete, on the upswing, will go big time up the ladder now. There's still Ray, New draftee Lutz, Demi O, Troy Stokes who reached AA. Nevermind the ability to find a Kirk N somewhere if the need arises. OF is the least of my concerns with this Franchise for the next 15seasons. Starting pitching is the only Franchise concern I have and even that is looking up after the year Corbin Burnes had.

Being honest, the Brewers already avoided the mistake when they didn't part ways with any top 10 prospect in trades. They are vastly set up pitching wise over the Cubs at any point in their rebuild and that's with Milwaukee having missed on every single 1st round draft choice since Braun essentially. Cubs immediately seen success from Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, and Happ in some form during the last 3 seasons. And also found a way to nab Anthony Rizzo with Cashner a 1st pick that really began this team. We've certainly had the better luck on 2nd round selections, but oof on the 1st! One would have to think some of the Brass working for Stearns, if not he himself, has also thought to themselves the Cubs dire situation moving forward after these last 2 seasons of trades. They haven't a single top 100 prospect, pitching devoit and for quite some time. It really makes sense why they made the move for Q, because they were staring at 2 SPs for 2018 and beyond before opening the wallet to the tune of 20+mil a year to aging FAs. We clearly don't have the monetary resources to cover up mistakes during the rebuild and trades. One can assume the Cubs will spend on a SP as well as a bullpen arm, Holland as well to Davis. With how great a job Stearns has done, I mean think about it, Thornburg for Shaw+. Gotta feel pretty safe that moves with the system's depth or depth on the team will lead to more promise in the future, over future despair.

Wasn't a fan when I did my predraft. Just seemed awkward and lacking power in his swing. He's young and a HS pick that was a top 10 projection, I think losing my two favorite in the draft in selections before, may have rattled the draft day, just like I wonder on Ray's selection with Pint a pick before and Delvin Perez PEDs. I'll label him a 4th OF future at this time and a prime trade player vs. future Brewer, because his production is lagging behind others who lead a crowded OF depth. I am surprised on the SB output something I didn't read in to him being so high. Hope he improves just a little each year and finds his way near the top 100 when he is traded.

Yeah......no. Curios why anybody would ever think the Brewers would have as much money to spend as anyone since there is no salary cap and the Brewers will always be a small market. Well, I think 50ish million raised to 120 million would be 70mil to spend for 2018. How many teams are going to add 70million or higher for the '18 season? Now if we are giving away money for 4+seasons, certainly a big market can exceed the Brewers salary commitment as the seasons add up. Anyway, this is being put in a Garza thread that should be closed at this point because you can't trade what you don't have.

^^^^^ What agreed NO! Duffy isn't worth a single one of those 3 much all three!! Jorge Lopez and Phil Bickford. Or else move on. You got a guy making basically 15mil who's imo a 3.75+ERA type. Hader and Woodruff should be as good and near future better than that making peanuts.

Of course Arcia won't approach Jeter offensive numbers AL bats get quite a few more PAs than NL bats. But I see him being a cornerstone at SS with a higher BA and enough power for a SS to stick around a 3+WAR SS for a long time. 157 654 582 104 183 25 6 10 78 14 7 48 102 .314 .370 .430 .800 101 153 548 506 56 140 17 2 15 53 14 7 36 100 .277 .324 .407 .731 90 Jeter is the top line 1st full season at age 22 and won ROY Arcia is the 2nd line his full season this year at age 22. Notice the difference in PA, runs scored and AL thing vs NL. 7.3% vs 6.6% bb rate 15.6% vs 18.2% K rate Clearly Arcia hit more HRs in nearly 100 less PAs. Stolen Base numbers identical. Arcia is a special kid. On Aug 1st is triple slash was .273/.318/.394 The Low to highs of that triple slash the last 2months of season were BA: .267-.286 OB: .315-.329 Slg: .394-.425 That makes a consistent .709-.754 OPS during the final 2months of his 1st season where he finished at .277/.324/.407=.731 1st 2months that line was at .251/.293/ .368=.661 .291 .370 .405 .775 Jeter's 2nd season lines. I think Arcia will be pretty close flipping some points on OB with Slg but BA every bit near or at that. Jeter's 20 year BWar averages out to 3.59. To age 35 season it is 4.49BWar the first 15seasons. Arcia scored a higher Defensive War this year than Jeter ever had in his career. So yeah, I don't feel overblown on hyping Arcia's value to Jeter's.