brewcrewdue80

Um. What team?

Baltimore is giving up too much ML ready talent for 1 season of Burnes. No reason for them to do this.

Much better offer than the other. Don't think the ptbnl is needed with Baty being the headliner+ 2 higher ceiling SP prospects.

Low ceilings. Middle floors. Pass. Need someone with a higher ceiling.

Only team willing to blow over 300M. Thanks Shohei. Bout time. Now that question is over. 12/325(not exactly counting the posting fee and luxury tax cost) the deal works below 30M a year. Corbin must be licking his chops at what must be 36M+ if not a full 40M a season avg he's going to sign for 8+ seasons. Probably see a 50M year in that deal. I'd expect no trade to LA anymore dealing with Burnes. Trade deadline certainly should that find a course to even logically happen. What's the record for games won in a season? I hope LA blows it by 15games.

So there is a deadline for decision. Jan 4th? Push back Winter meetings, move up the Decision dates on the likes of Yamamota. The 2 don't work with eachother as stands.

I agree on a deadline for the foreign players. Yamamota+ should have been done deadline say 1 week before Christmas. You're paying a posting fee. It's null if the deadline passes and they can deal with that player another year. This allows action the business days leading up to Xmas. And then the business days following New Years. Now you've made a period during offseason where to expect moves.

Everything is good but 2028. Crow was rule 5 eligible this year. You don't go 4 more seasons of dealing with that. Crow ought to be pitching for the team by 2026. If not appear in some fashion in 2025.

I posted earlier some of what 30-34? Picks reached 10 career WAR vs what amount of projected 4th rd picks a Dodgers comp would provide 132-137. Most were 0. I think 32 had 3 in 20 seasons. 134 also had 3 I think. At least 1 4th rd of those spots did. That's not to say, these days the picks come with slot value and manipulation. Draft a col senior that belongs after the 10th rd. Adds to the 0pct. It is filled with futility. Negative to +5WAR careers. Rare above 5 dating back to 2004. Getting an A+ to higher prospect back in trade ought to be like 1.4 seasons preview of a more mature/seen and team scouted player that your "drafting". Some trades bring back more than 1 of these. Certainly a safer bet you find a positive WAR player through trade.

28th rd pick that was a HS arm paid overslot and signed away from College. I dunno where he was projected coming in to draft, I read on mlb writeup he was 91, touching 94 before TJ. Digging in to archives- About 380k to sign is equivalent 5th rd value in 2019. Perfect game rated him about 225 SP that class with 89-90 being 93rd FB percentile. I misread his 2022 season innings pitched totals. He right there at 128IP, higher actually than any of the Golden Dodgers SP. So back end of rotation isn't a pipe-dream upon returning to pitching. There's this too https://pikecountygeorgia.com/coleman-crow-is-southern-league-pitcher-of-week-month/ that's quite the stretch he was on. It shouldnt be surprising as he added innings to his season, (maybe innings per start/seeing batters 2-3 times) that his numbers worsened. Mlb pipeline writeup mentions he could pitch from non-fastball reliance from his other pitches. So he must have higher command of secondary pitches. Point here in the rant, the Brewers didn't add a lotto ticket. They have someone who will be playing on their ML team down the road.(unless traded) How's the staff look come 2026 mid-season? Think a back end guy would be welcome. As to losing Taylor/Houser. I think a ptbnl needed as mentioned. You gave 2 potential above replacement players in 2024 and won't see any return for doing that til 2026. Now, sure you can go spend the money you just saved but it's the amount towards a 1+WAR replacement level salary. Sounds a little bit like Santana spending and 1b security. It will sit better if the spending turns in to a 10+M player where needed that brings an expectation higher than replacement level. You gained 2 40man spots, go get a FA and look greater by doing it all because of this trade.

He wasn't selected in the rule 5 draft. This means he can rehab all year as just a minor league player and not be put on the 40man and optioned off the 26man to do so, before removing him to 60day IL off the 40man. Try to keep up. 3options remaining >2 only. 0 days of service time > than any days spent service time in 2024. Rule 5 draft protection doesn't need to happen for him now until after this season placed on the 40man. He has a full year to rehab and not need protection or any ML move doing so. Drafting him in rule5 draft starts it all.

Add option too. Vs not I believe this year.

There should have been a ptbnl imo on this trade. Barring Taylor and Houser having negative WAR seasons, you've given just about a 5pct chance Crow would reach the WAR value both will give the Mets in 2024 in his Brewers career. How he will ever become a SP is beyond me since he has lost 2+seasons of development when he returns to baseball activities from his TJ. The upside is HS means he's young and will be in his 20s practically an entire team control. A move to the bullpen maybe increases the FB velocity and he's a stud in the making there for cheap. Stearns traded for our guys, but at same time he brought back Houser and the like coming here right? So maybe there's an insider info that Crow just needs to be healthy, and he's well off to being a huge contributor to the ML team. The other notion on SP depth, burnes trade gets back Sheehan or Miller or even 2 SPs, the slots are open for them.

So he has 3 years team control, I think pre-Atb yet so a move to be Burnes personal catcher should be needed. Haase may not make on the team through February once Burnes and Arb figures are exposed. Get Haase some catching defense drills to work on and have him more prepared to catch Burnes. Maybe another Brewers SP. 1-2 starts a week max is all he's about to see. If Burnes tosses gems with Haase catching him, mvp level signing.

I don't know that Harrison would be untouchable. He has warning signs. Says he pitches to a lower arm slot. He's at 31HRs given up the past 2 seasons in 215 IP. 87bbs in about 150IP at AA&AAA of those. Not a great Fip sign. Of course he can improve and be the ToR SP, but like the Dodgers prospects, he's pitched at the ML level, starting his service time, yet doesn't have a 120IP+ season to his name. There goes 2 seasons right there counting on him for 30 starts and post season play without management and worries. I dunno why SF would trade to compete with 1 year guys like Burnes and Adames. Dodgers have loaded up, likely with another huge addition. They should be targeting players with more than 1 season team control. Luciano fwiw reads and profiles like an Adames only at 3b vs staying at SS. He has a higher k rate than I'd like to see with his results in the minors. They suggest a .270+ hitter which he barely accomplished in the minors. I'd lower that expectation towards .250-255. With PAs he appears a shoe-in for 20+HRs. That's all good but is that Burnes good? With Harrison and Luciano being top 30 prospects, you're not getting both even including Adames. Wisenhunt it says tested positive for performance enhancers in 2022 and suspended that year in college. Puts him behind the development curve. How does that translate if he tests positive again? Giants do have high upside SPs in Bryce Edwards and Reggie Crawford, who I suppose you could dream on while taking Luciano. Kinda meh it can work out exceptional with Luciano-lotto. It could also just be avg level bat/defense at 3b for 5+seasons.

That's what I would assume, but you read opposing team fans and what they would offer and it generally feels like the QO value is completely ignored. 2.7M is certainly something imo that can be maneuvered to draft a higher rated prospect who falls from a pick like 7-14 to a spot in the 20s where Milw has drafted and use a lot on getting a top 10-ish quality prospect. Far more likely to make the majors over a player as I shown drafted 30+ overall. So the next question is arbitration. I've mentioned this as a factor in Burnes value. BRef/MLBTR you see Burnes expected to get 15.1M in the end. So that is the figure for "agreed upon guess. Let's guess Burnes side asks for 16.3-17.0M while Brewers side asks for 14-14.3M. Tbd in late January the asking. They don't settle again. That's a 2+Mil gap that if a trade is made brings up what value do you add or take away? Do we jist assume Burnes value remains 15.1M on a guess? Burnes lost 700k last year and the 50pct gain 15.1 from 10.1 had he won is, 16.2M(add 700k is 16.9 makeup when asking) Burnes was much more successful pitching to Caratini vs to Contreras where his Fip hovers near 3 vs over 4+ I believe. (The argument against another late season let down leading to another loss vs winning arb) All that tells me a reason that Burnes remains on the Brewers for 2024, until they have settled or went through Arb's decision. Draft pick losses when other QO players sign. Teams like to double down on a 2nd loss, since it is just 1 later round pick after initial 2.

You do have Orioles also involved notation. Does that indicate a 3 team trade? Not a defensive trade keeping Bos from acquiring Burnes? Someone financial on Bostons side the Orioles want that offsets the cost for Burnes the Brewers wouldn't do. Meanwhile added returns to both sides Bal-Milw. Ok nevermind on that thought. No chance Bos has a contract the Os would take.

More like Thee Jackson Churro? It'd be specially made over the traditional Churro. What that entails, if for them to work on figuring out and where he sits with Churros tastes or modifications/styles.

The difference here is for Milwaukee. Burnes is a pick immediately after the 1st round. For the Dodgers that pick is after the 4th round. Quick look at 2023 (24 tbd)Draft and values that would mean- Brewers-#30 2,732,500 Dodgers- #132-137 were actual comps for these teams- 492,700-469,000. That is shy of 2.3M difference which is the 38th pick in comp balance A value. Vs near 100 picks later value. Which team in the trade gets Burnes future QO value? Are the Brewers docked 2.3 million value? Or Do the Dodgers need to step up their trade offer 2.3M value? So now that answer splits up the value amongst the different level of teams the club is talking too. Comp A teams. Comp B teams. We'd want to be speaking to Comp A teams like Orioles or Diamondbacks. And not the teams getting 4th rd comps. Fwiw, history for 30th selections aren't good with Adam Ottavino being the only 10+WAR since 2001 draft. 132-has 2 (Paxton&Christian Walker) 133-0 134- 1(Kluber) 135-3 (Kipnis, Rosario, Clevenger) 136-0 137-0

I'm taking this off MLB with an article explaining the players who declined the QO. In it, it wrote about what the players and then the QO reward for the teams and those players. Skipping all that the bottom tells you this explanation and it's something that I've mentioned affects Burnes value to different teams. It's long so bear the read and I'll reply after to it. Compensation for losing players who reject their QO If a team gives a qualifying offer to a player who then signs elsewhere, the club that lost the player is eligible for Draft pick compensation the following year. • Competitive Balance Tax payors: If the team that loses the player went over the CBT threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. • Revenue-sharing recipients: If the team that loses the player is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round. • All other teams: If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. Penalties for signing players who reject their QO Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks. However, a team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture. (Players who are unsigned after the start of the MLB Draft in the year that follows the rejection of their qualifying offer are no longer tied to Draft pick compensation and can be signed without their new club needing to forfeit a Draft pick.) Three tiers of Draft pick forfeiture -- based on the financial status of the signing team -- are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer: • Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest picks as well. • Revenue-sharing recipients: A team that receives revenue-sharing money will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest pick. • All other teams: If a team does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold in the previous season, it will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest pick and an additional $500,000. These are classifications for each team that will determine the Draft picks they receive (for a departing QO player) or forfeit (for signing a QO player). Competitive Balance Tax payors: Blue Jays, Braves, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Yankees Revenue-sharing recipients: Athletics, Brewers, D-backs, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins All other clubs: Angels, Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Red Sox, White Sox

I cant fathom the Dodgers parting with 2 SPs that pitched in the Majors last season after parting with Pepiot for just 1 SP. Just continues a need to find another SP. Brewers parting with both top end SPs leaves a hole they aren't ready to fill. Our Ace is, Miley? Sheehan? We'd solve the hitting to be way behind in the pitching. I guess the team could proceed on this uear being a retool. Trade Contreras, Adames, Miley at the deadline. Insert Quero-Lee-Julien-Black-Turang spread across the infield any day. Best of Wiemer/Mitchell, with Chourio and Frelick. Yelich at DH. Watch them rake. Hope to get an addition or 2 that steadies the SPs to now works with Sheehan, Gasser, Ashby, Miserioski. Did we extend Williams yet? WS 2025.

This would be true. I would think Lee is on the untouchable category due to not being flawed defensively while carrying the nice future bat profile. They would have to really want Frelick for OF purposes over what Lee offers for infield purposes. A potential future at 3b makes Lee more valuable in today's game to me personally. Crew would need to add like Houser or Rea to entice them.(I don't know if they need a solid #4 potential)

Not exactly a non-problematic player with a trouble defensively in Julien. I mentioned the weak arm, slog with sprint speed that affects his range to play 2b. The opposite of Mitchell/Wiemer who can actually improve(upside) with their bats. Julien is playing because of his bat with no upside on defense. Maybe an average 1b. I did mention adding to sending Mitchell or Wiemer, but imo Frelick would require more than just Julien since he's both bat/defense.

Frelick didn't have a full healthy season. Only 40games in AAA. Then just 57games played at MLB small sample size. He brought what measures out as near elite BB/K rates in that sample size. What he didn't bring, was Barrels, exit velocity, max exit velocity. Stats like that in a small sample can flip drastically. Will he keep that BB/K pct? Since you imagine EV/barrels are a result on being more aggressive up at the plate. Looks like he was both 9+pct below MLB zone swing pct, and 1st pitch swing pct. Contact pct over 90pct in the zone, 17pct above ML avg 75pct with outside zone contact. Just above contact avg on chase pct and contact. He's going to be a major headache vs pitchers based on all of that. 7+pitch battles that he sends in for a base hit. .275+ hitter. Above 345 OB. I'd find the combo of Black/Frelick-Chourio batting lineup a refreshing top of the lineup. No Counsell-lefty/lefty leadoff(better side of platoon) Contreras or Yelich 4/5. Yes please. What a different feeling than all these past seasons. You don't get that feeling swapping Mitchell/Wiemer in to 1 or 2 do you? I don't know Julien. Statcast pct you can see he possesses possibly the best eye in baseball. His contact pct is suspect to maintain a higher BA, but the power shows up legit. Very weak arm would lock him to 2b/1b. One of the slowest in MLB year 1. So, get him to 1b and use Mitchell/Wiemer with someone to acquire him. Julien's bat exceeds both to plop at 4-6. Defensively/speed he's not equal to trade Frelick for with 6yrs control. Add Black as your 2b/1b future option, Julien/Black combo needs Adames moved so Turang sits at SS defensively.

Just flipped through Torontos top pipeline prospects. My word that's depressing. It's totally filled with 3rd piece in trade players. Tiedman I don't even like as a headliner and he's a big swinger this year imo to show whether he sticks as a top 100 prospect with SP upside, or is gone because RP future. The only interesting upside to dream on is 17yr old Emmanuel Bonilla with the bat. I don't know if the defense has that upside. So again you're talking nothing in the pipeline that says would ever be an All Star. You're just hoping they reach more than 1.5WAR in a given season. It's the kind of stuff that clearly shows why Toronto would make this trade. Yelich is for better for them and cheap honestly for his 2023 production with what they need on team.