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brewcrewdue80

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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80

  1. Contreras had a far better defensive season than was thought he could do last season. You should expect regression after a stellar hitting/Def year. You also don't have Caratini but Haase? Plus for backup. That's going to be a dropoff. It's going to be brutal with not having over 3 seasons of info to avg in to. Adames and SS is ranked higher. Respecting he likely had a down year. You're holding on to a healthy Williams who is #1-4 in all of baseball in the bullpen. That really brings up the bullpen numbers at end of season. Can't continue predicticting the health and results from previous produced. So naturally bullpen drops. They give a bump at 1b yet there's nobody penciled in there. That's how bad last year was for 1b. Last for what it's worth. Grayson Rodriquez they give an increase to 2.7 from 1.8. While having 6 more starts-40+ more innings. BRef doesn't have that improvement. I'd expect he beats the IPs and ERA/Fip. So imo should be higher. He just hasn't passed the sample size to get that. Like Chourio-Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer-Monasterio-Turang-Black-Ashby-future Gasser-Uribe. Young team it should be low projections. The risky volatility/sample size says so. Monasterio/Perkins/Uribe/Milner may have given their career best seasons well ever see.
  2. Network dumping the weakest Peraza-Pereira duo that had 0 need on the Brewers. Tossing Hamilton who makes sense. Welcome back Cy Young Burnes and QO in 9months do we remember Frazier/Miguel Andujar coming of injury with 0 games returned in trade offers? This is that version by the Yankees MLB network. If nobody can beat this ceiling, you had better wait til trade deadline. Adding- Looking at the Yankees roster makeup. This is them getting rid of their depth of worse vs better. So add Volpe or Dominguez and now it's an actual offer. Vs add #5 OF or #2 utility infielder and a future #3 for a year on Burnes ranked 2nd best SP this year by same network. You think if roles were reversed and Cole was Burnes they'd take Turang and Wiemer with Gasser/Rodriquez as the SP?
  3. What other overseas FA posting is after him though? Imanaga is the last right? The arb number exchangings, I'm surprised some haven't been told and or agreements on the season coming out before exchanged.
  4. Hernandez deal has the feel on playing on the WS favorite for 1 yr while getting paid to be a champion and recovering off a poor season. Good-great year, he stands an easier big payday than the look he left after '23. Dodgers probably said they'd QO him after a decent season to entice him. We are approaching the deadline for the Shota Imanaga decision. Add the Arb deadline a day later for exchanging numbers and we should start seeing some action after this week.
  5. Savant doesn't show 1 piece of upside trend. Not much downside trend, but is trending down, by swinging at 1st pitches more with bottom of league chase rates last 2 seasons. It'd be like acquiring an expensive FA that you knew was overpaid. He's a future non tender candidate maybe after this upcoming season. Trading any top 20 prospect would be an overpay. Just adding, Tyler black has a better profile to do what Ramirez does but far more upside. Why take away the chances Black could outperform that?
  6. 2024 offense. Frelick OF. Yelich DH Chourio-OF Contreras-C Adames-SS 1b(fa sign?) Black? Or Mitchell/Wiemer OF 3b(Monasterio/Black?) 2b- Turang C-backup Util-backup OF-Perkins? There's the trade of Burnes or Adames idea who's return can shed light on offense setup. At this moment I only have 1B missing. When and where is Black's position and lineup position put in to it? Hoskins on a 2yr deal or even 3. You can always consider tradeable after 2024/deadline this season if the Burnes-Adames moves are made in season. Santana will give you relief for a 1b defender for 2024. How's Hoskins ability? Seems hit or miss. Wish Black had more 1b defense reps to know if he'd have a future there. He's your polarizing guy in your roster construction. 1b-set. Makes 3b a player tbd. 3b-set. Makes 1b a tbd. 2b/util? I dunno. We traded Adames in that scenario or suffered ST injuries.
  7. Give it another 8days. That one intl guy has to be signed I believe the 11th or they return to their team. Read Arb numbers to be due and exchanged on 11th or 12th as well. We'll find out the gap on Burnes and Adames what Mil wants to pay and what those 2 want to be paid. I've said it will affect the trade return with Burnes multiple times. Black to me is part of a hold up(along with Adames] on roster configuration. How soon will he be added to the everyday lineup and where? What if its 1b? 2b? because Adames was traded? Aside from Wiemer, Frelick and Mitchell are small sample sizes to add with Chourio no sample size for OF production. Yet all 3 are top 2-24-and 70 prospects I believe upon when taking the ML field. You have no faith in those rankings, get all the prospect rankings banned. Clearly wrong when you're looking at them. Or just wrong when it involves a Brewer. Turang was another top 85 prospect. Yet here we are boohoo the roster hasn't really been upgraded. The idea exists in your mind that prior to age 30, no young call up can improve 2nd or 3rd year playing. You gotta wait til after age 30 and 10-20+M AAV FA contracts to be doled out to believe that past performance showing elsewise will continue well in to their 30s. Thats improving the team. Gasser/Miserioski/ Rodriquez all are SPs that you shouldn't be locking down any FA pitchers beyond 2 years making it harder for them to join the ML team. Peralta-Ashby are under contracts. Keep playing checkers while Front office plays chess.
  8. So the teams that luck out on a Joc Perderson return to production isn't the same as the Brewers attempts over the recent years of Cain, Moustakas, JBJ, Renfroe, Wong, McCutchen, and Winker? I'll guess there's 1 or 2 other names I didn't list. Grandall right? We had the Thames/Aguilar stretch. These aren't top notch gets. But all of them were supposed to provide floor value securing a top half in the batting order. To be fair, they should have most of top half covered. It jist matters how well do the Frelick-Mitchell-Chourio-Black group perform when paired with Yelich and Adames? All 4 of Tellez-Winker-Voit and Brosseau decided to tank below their floors batting last season. How about having a season with a Pederson output from whoever they sign or acquire in to this role? Can't forget the near B2B Yelich MVP who smurfed since that time while having an extension signed to continue producing above a floor that he probably didn't think would be that low. Hiura another name. It's just a longer recent stretch of bottom outs vs exceeding expectations though Renfroe, Grandall, Wong probably exceeded floor projections. I dunno maybe you just cant wrap around these additions because it didn't come at above 20M aav FA signing?
  9. The timing of the move and trade likely deals with Hudson being DFA'd. He passes through waivers Dodgers just put him in the minors. The way for Milw to acquire him was trading somebody and adding Hidson to their 40man in order to keep him. Maybe another team put a late claim on him? It's sorta like I mentioned, swapping a year ahead pitcher who played in MLB for a 20th rd pick who is recovering from TJ and didn't pitch a professional inning last season. They also picked up Crow who fits this mold in the earlier Houser/Taylor trade. Moves that may help the future of the team, options/performance/ team control as soon as this season or, the following season or 2. The kid we gave up has 0 shot of helping in 2024 or 2025.
  10. MEH. 6-8 extension as a lefty is intriguing. But that always comes with control inefficiencies. Bullpen guy who they can option throughput the season if he doesn't stick. He did play on a 100+ win Dodgers team last season. Yet 92 win Brewers team he's upsetting? Low hit and HR/9 totals is good. The BBs is what will hurt him. Good thing Brewers have a pitching lab, 2 options and can work with him before he gets to pitch another ML inning. Just costs them a 40man spot. Edit and of course the prospect. Let's say one who is basically Crow that is further ahead than the prospect given up.
  11. I look forward to a Chourio with ML game experience for much or all of a season, vs tossed straight in to a playoff series. They promoted Black to AAA, left handed with SB-OB skills that he is the one I'd argue should have been tossed in to the playoff roster simply because the speed baserunning skills. Think the Royals made that work with a speedster back when they were in WS. J? Something. Lemme look. Was thinking Jarrod Dyson but it was Terrance Gore.
  12. You know, there's another part along the lines of this topic. The Brewers FO has shed a contract for another contract. Adames(since Turang can backup) would fit the bill of trading for the 8-14M 1 or 2 yr contract player of another team. Only Adames would be higher return unless the other player is also value higher. Where's Tampa after their stud SS Franco problems? Yancy Diaz appears to be a stud for 1b the last 2 seasons. He'll make 8M,-10M, and 12 team option. Along with 2 years team control but approximate 4.5M then arb 3 Harold Ramirez who's a tier below easily Diaz with little game experience at 1b. Definitely poor defensively but solid bat. Mlb Depth chart shows Jose Siri as the Rays CF right now. (We have 3 for them to pluck from) That depth chart doesn't even include Franco already, completely removed. Diaz would be a stud to have for 1b next 3 seasons. Reunite Adames in Tampa with Mitchell for Diaz some cash and I dunno prospect capitol you have Tampa toss in.
  13. Looking at Chourio game logs, he played for AA in Sept through the 16th. Then got 1 week of games at AAA 19-24th. There are playoff roster rules that I believe meant Chourio could never play in the postseason, I don't know what date he would have had to be on the 26/7 man team or the 40man. Someone with more knowledge can put that out there. I kinda thought by Sept 1st, you had to be somewhere along the lines on roster that designates your playoff ability. Then injuries was the way if you weren't on then, that you got on. Maybe that's changed over the last few seasons. I just remember a period with passing through waivers at end of August, there was a date to be done by or else they weren't eligible for playoffs? This was like the trade deadline of waiver-payroll dump. Just showing Chourio was 2 more weeks of AA ball in Sept and a promotion that may have gotten him to play in playoffs over Winker, may be a bit premature. Be upset with Winker being on that team over someone else. Chourio shouldn't be the one mentioned.
  14. Looks to me, Luciano is a victim of developmental time losing 2020. Then rushed ahead of his developmental time line. Probably because his shine with 13 other SSs in top 100 pipeline ranked from 30-98 behind him and him already dropping from near top towards 30. There are 22 SS overall in top 98 rankings. Luciano's K rate hovers closer to 30pct than I'd be comfortable with for a SS questionable to stick at SS. Last season was actually his first time playing AA and above. Bref has Luciano at .934 pct and 3.54 range at SS in minors. Turang came in at .959 and 4.17 range. 2b/3b/DH future appears where he's headed. The bat appears HR worthy. .250s more realistic than that .270 notation until cleans up that K rate. They list his arm as plus so 3b with power would work in Milw favor. 2b takes away where Black profiles best. Giants if an extension with Adames was realistic happening would be a good move for them. Risky on Brewers. I'd wonder if Luciano spent entire season in the minors if he'd still be top 50 in rankings. The k Rate was over 30pct, 2b/DH games increase. I like Wisenhunt over Luciano for sure. Keep in mind looking at Wisenhunt's game logs. He pitched in 5th inning just 4 times last year. With 0, 1, 1, and 2hits allowed. 0, 1, 2, (5IP) and 3 bbs allowed(4.1 that game) so he has very little history behind him pitching to batters a 3rd time in starts.
  15. Now do the Braves dump another contract, keep Sale, or trade him say to Yankees who Boston couldn't nor wouldn't do? Grissom can't quite put a ceiling on them, only 22 with more game experience needed. Doesn't seem to have been top 100 prior to graduating off lists but maybe. Small look loses profile for SS and light HR power to profile as your long term 3b.
  16. Thank you for calling that out. All I'm seeing from the pitchers and reading are healthy Crow types. Initial puke return for Houser&Taylor. High whip-bb types 95 and below. If that's the ceiling of pitching you want for an ACE, taking a Rok level 19yr lotto ticket back is just insanity to me for Burnes +? + Williams?. Find a 3rd team that takes Dominguez for somebody with higher ceiling that fills a Brewers need vs OF who needs Dominguez when putting Williams(a 2nd QO future) in the deal. I started looking at SSs and my word there's like 10 of them in top 25. I wouldnt bother there. Take Baltimore-send them Burnes&Williams for Grayson Rodriguez. Better than this Yankees idea.
  17. Glad to have the what he's looking for. Clearly with draft pick cost makes Hader signing here below 0 percent. The only way as I said, a deal happens is 2years or 1 year, and below 50M. Frisbee Slider- Hader definitely does better than the guys we see traded for or signed. Just not worth that much to our team with Williams and Uribe. Out of FA signings, based on history of HOF type RPs, the team that signs Hader, won't regret it. Lockdown closer.
  18. Gasser, Misiorowski, and Carlos Rodriguez say hello from AA-AAA. Ashby's health has hindered where the team would be at with his Starts from the rotation. There's Freddy who was informed he tipped pitches early last season. They have so.e bodies. They have some trade chips, 2024 draft picks to add arms. They are in a good place with arms in my opinion. We are finding out how the club can't pay a superior rotation when together at same time. Hader was traded, Burnes drama, Woodruff, Houser, Williams future. So we have Freddy-Ashby-trio of Miserioski- Rodriguez-Gasser who with Uribe as the influx of payroll SPs they wouldn't want a draft/sign gap. I see Bradley Blaylock is a TJ guy returned and kept from rule 5 who along with Crow are SP backends that need buildup time over these next 2 seasons to make an impact. The hitting approach has been ongoing in 1st rds for how long now? Part of it, is, is it an approach? Or best player available for signing that dropped to them? Don't think they've ever heavily sign an international SP. Anyway this rant is sorta off topic to Orioles. Any trade you would hope to get the highest upside in player acquired imo. I dislike some ideas giving up Burnes for X prospect when they give off vibes of just a #3, with a 2WAR infielder who if, can be a 3+WAR type. Sure the 2 are better than Burnes long term, but not the ceiling. Mayo at 3b, Wilken at 3b one of them moved to 1b. The ceiling in Mayo is what needs to be sought after.
  19. The only number is below 50M since his QO triggers at a 50M pay point. So 2years below 50M. One of these NY teams will sign him based on how their offseason is ongoing. I'd also think Hader's feelings towards his final couple months as a Brewer and dealing with at home drama, he'd not want to return to that stretch in his life. Never mind the Brewers actually traded him during that stretch.
  20. Close this thread. The Angel's haven't made the playoffs with 2 of the greatest players ever in history with them. They no longer have 1 of those players. In a vacuum, trading for Burnes last season of team control, is akin to any of us buying 1 Mega Millions or Power Ball lotto ticket with an actual expectation that you'd win by doing so. The Brewers will trade Burnes to the Cardinals before the Angels because it is such a poor move for a GM to make.
  21. Win pct .900. Plus WS wins starting next season when Ohtani can pitch, and The Dodgers can buy Burnes. I will not accept below 120Wins this season by LA unless 10players go on the shelf longer than 45days each. Best record in baseball clinched by trade deadline stuff. It annoys Mr these teams spend so much and then just don't dominate. Yankees especially. Getting beat year by year by Tampa in wins isn't helping the case against this Salary divide.
  22. That or Black or Wilken are forcing them to trade somebody who is going to be desired regardless the season he's having or pay. Hoskins contract/years/abilities likely protects the Black/Wilken early Era from beginning. I'd really enjoy the team just putting Black as your 1b for Opening Day. Find your utility to give him days off and see if he beats Chourio for Roy...(so Chourio can win MVP year 2 or 3)
  23. Depends the goal. Gasser I wouldn't worry about. Black has potential staying power depending these future offseason moves. He also profiles as a quick extension should the team solidify a future defense position for him. Not confident for 3b. I think safe to say is 12days for Super 2 and 6.171/0? days end of team control. Another 40+ days is the questionable cut line on Super 2.
  24. Good notation on how this opens 26man spots that may be optionable vs Taylor/Houser (with an O) Black is on the horizon. You could see 2 for 1 out of either Burnes/Adames trade. The 1b FA signing is 1 not to have options. Did Haase have 1? Imagine if he did he wouldn't have been available. Maybe they gained clarity towards trade offers on what was being offered and the crunch that put them in, that has been eased by 1 or even 2. Including not taking a worse offer while "dumping salary to be able to do so.
  25. Lol. Checked out Savant on Haase. Similiar batter none other than 2022 Tyrone Taylor. Now we know why trigger for both moves were made in 24hrs. They found a better defensive-PAs position for Taylor. Haase suffered a poor batting year last season. But savant has the 2 previous having much better stat outcomes. That launch angle and EV with contact/barrel were all a tick above ML avgs. You could take the optimistic view and think that kind of player is due to return. Maybe there was a slight/mild injury that they just played through? The career splits aren't good for him as a Sub-PH. Oh some comment on MLBTR mentioned he has caught 2 no hitters. So you've got your guy to finally see the 9IP no hitter this season!
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