brewcrewdue80
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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80
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Frelick floor based on his contact/power and thus value being higher is a known commodity. The values being placed on Motchell/Wiemer is lower based on the batting strike-out problems both have. Their ceilings should actually have a higher value than Frelick's. A trade of one of the 3 should incorporate that. Frelick would add a ML player to the roster or 1 who's projected to play well over 400PAs/over half a season pitching. Mitchell and Wiemer-should return more a AA higher risk/ceiling type if solo trade vs added in a Burnes or Adames trade. Xavier Isaac from Tampa who likes wheeling and dealing with OF/1b etc for example perusing bottom of top 100 prospects. Det has a Colt Keith 3b/2b in top 30 that would fit swapping an OF for an inf if Det came calling that looks more floor vs ceiling with AAA exp over 60gms. Btw I seen Gavin Stone on bottom of top 100. Looks like a 3.5+BB/9 high whip pitcher. That's a pass imo who is 25 now for 2024 season. Kinda late age-wise cleaning up walk rate from someone who's clock and options have started already. Taylor is clearly a no value backup. Moving him is acquiring a backup catcher out there. A RP shuttle. Or a utility crew would employ at SS should Adames be traded to back up Turang.
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Part of the vibe I got was Black at 1b. 1b/3b/2b excitement role getting him on the field by Arnold. Monasterio is RH-Black LH. That'd be a natural platoon for 3b. We're so early in to the offseason, filling a 2b-3b-1b utility/starter via FA or upcoming trade general type of move every offseason. Caratini signed. I guess the Crew has a need for backup to Contreras so that's 1 more move tbd. Quero hangs in the background by trade deadline, I'm thinking. So a backup type catcher that's disposable at the deadline via trade.
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He gets a $2 million signing bonus and salaries of $2 million in 2024, $4 million in 2025, $7 million in 2026, $8 million in 2027, $9 million in 2028, $15 million in 2029, $16 million in 2030 and $17 million in 2031. Milwaukee has $25 million options for 2031 and ’32, each with a $2 million buyout. He has escalators for the final three years based on MVP voting Chourio original signing 1.8M. Motivation having likely used those funds early. Signing bonus 2M akin right away to his signing money. 2M that will be paid throughput 2024. Then 4M etc. Great spread for Chourio to grow his wealth now securing money yearly similar to what he has been working with vs coming in to this season making far less. That to me is the motivation to these deals. No credit-financial burdens on future income. He's no longer a future 80+Mil MLB star to be. It's reality 8years ahead of time. Give him the keys to where he wants to live those 8years-10years far ahead of time, vs 4 years from now after 1st arb and team control being less than 3 years remaining with trade hanging over his head. Anyway one of my daily LFG Chourio is here happiness posts.
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Superb answer to the idea. You can basically come to a conclusion the team is about set. 1b and nothing really else forthcoming without a trade they couldn't refuse making a need.
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OD makes more sense than not. Let him face ML SP right away. Holds his own, he's well on his way towards that Roy. Doesn't get off to a good start- you option him briefly before recalling him. Wiemer could use some time in AAA rewinding some of that clock. Or there's Mitchell who gained days in 2022 Sept and while injured. Chourio's team control is fully controlled now. They can work some of the others back that honestly deserve some time in AAA working on their game.
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Starting him OD allows him to accumulate numbers towards RoY come seasons end. I seen a small tidbit that his AAA starts, Mitchell still worked CF and Chourio was a corner OF. Chourio I guess also exclaimed by somebody, SS is his favorite position to play. Reverse Yount career forthcoming? Put lightly- year 7(last arb) was probably exceeding 23M. 1 FA year at that is probably exceeding 35M. The options at 25M (below Yelich 26M) vs 35+ should mean this Chourio career will last 10years while saving over 60? M and spread out lower denominations. No super 2/team control management needed. How much WAR for his career would he need to Accomplish 142M value? Is it like 6M per? 23WAR? 5? 26.5? That's not even a 3WAR avg per year. No Brainer, he's going put up 3+ this year by 550PAs.
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Not that Baltimore would do it, but Grayson Rodriguez for Burnes and Williams seems better tailored for what Milwaukee needs.
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Good stuff Wade. I hope he gets at least to 120IP and triggers more pay by then than had he just accepted the option. Love incentive deals. They all should have them.
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Nice. Velocity up tick in short iP starts could be exposure what he may present as a RP /swingman. Checked off the list. 2 TJs Ross/age and future RP role may be what he's destined to turn a career around.
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That's exactly my thinking. Think I seen this is going to be just 1 year deal and not adding an option. Give him 12-14M....or 10. Under and then just 1 year is taking one for the team from what he could have made. Definitely feel better seeing that he's starting that next game than Rea-Houser-Anderson types. Hopefully Gasser gets a good long look being lefty with Miley passing on great insight and knowledge during Gasser's rookie games.
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Do they just sign him for 10M now? 12? He's not made over 10M in a single season for his career. 37age season coming up. Would you pay him 15M while paying Burnes 15M projection? Could you imagine 16M for Miley and Burnes under 16? Either way; I like Miley for the purpose of winning a division. He's just what a team needs for your middle-late rotation.
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I'd just like to see Yelich having spend some time in Spring training trying it out. Work on his versatility with the current makeup of OFs clogging him down. LH platoon getting the highest amount of games at 1b if he left the impression he'd do well defensively there. DH him and in the future Contreras when Quero takes over catcher.
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it's about where they are within development and mlb placement. I seen Ryan Pepiot as a proposed headliner. Guy hasn't thrown 120+ IP in a season and already service time. Perfect example for Dodgers to part with since at best without injury, he's 2 years further along in team control before one even pegs them for a 170IP season. Burnes has 200+ in 2024 to manage. Misiorowski has time with 0 service time to be added to your MLB team in late 2025 and be approaching 130+ innings for 2026 to start. So no I wouldn't want his ceiling with control used on Burnes. The same can be said on Sheehan only theres more control- higher IP limitations moving forward. 6th rd pick- hes the ideal target for Milw. And considering LA would net the comp-pick(though is that a 1st for them or later?) And draft another Sheehan version that they do consistently with their picks. The difference is 60+ innings known high quality starts from Corbin vs dealing with the management of Sheehan throughout the season and adding a SP at deadline anyway because he may be gassed/atop his limits when playoffs come around.
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When does Contreras move to 1b? Quero will outclass him by a boatload behind the plate defensively and managing pitchers. I'm not trying to extend Contreras. Dh/1b by the end of this season. Split it up with Yelich. Back to future RoY. So 58M between the 2 option years? Yeah sounds about right. That's about right up against max I'd think Milw would pick up without the ascension I'm thinking he will be. What is that a 5WAR expectation right now for that amount? 8 would be easy picking it up.
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Jackson! Jackson! Jackson! Chourio! Chourio! Chourio! MVP! MVP! MVP! What's the initial chant going to be for Jackson? Btw-every batting clip I'm watching and the glimpses of the beauty in all of-stance-posture-motion-balance-swing, rinse repeat. He's got .300+ career coming. And yhe just won GG for CF in AA. Like his future is seasonally better than Gomez's big WAR season. 8+ yearly if he accumulates games. One 2 PA clip he was battling to 3-2 counts both times but his taken ball wins he was celebrating mentally or stepping out the box. Saying nope out load when the pitch missed. Getting to view that batting stance-etc repeated. (Small adjustment 1st 0-2 pa) Yeah he's 19, this fricken good, and that whole body-mind and letting the game continue becoming easier for him will start now Opening Day. Fingers crossed on the 2 option years being easy team pickups. Oh yeah. 1 ended in a swing and a miss. 2nd was a line drive double I think advancing a runner to 3rd. (Maybe base clogger on 1st to 2nd and wasn't JC ending on 2nd)
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Right now you sit and hold and use your options while it plays out. When it comes to ceiling to highest floor I think it's Wiemer, Mitchell, and Frelick. But the highest floor is Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer. Mitchell's injury history and longevity needs to be worked through. And let's be serious. These 3 play defense that will suffer injuries on a monthly. The only reason I see Taylor being on this team opening day is 2 of them are hurt from spring training already. But I do also think 1 could be packaged in a trade with Burnes or Adames to net someone you didn't think would be possible.
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Emmet Sheehan has to be your SP return. Younger with already a higher innings pitch limitation to be a SP. Pepiot is at that crossroad of jumping in to BP/SP BP future because age and the innings limitations. By the time he's ready to throw 170+ he'll have 1 yr of control remaining and be sent off in a trade. Dodgers would be trading for the 180s-190s Burnes could pitch in 2024 vs the 140s-170s limitations Sheehan will have for 2 seasons while getting dibs to extend Burnes.
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Imagine having a manager just put the better hitters in a slot and not platoon the SP that day with the newest version of that days lineup. Black-Yelich-Chourio-Contreras-OF-OF on down to Turang 9th.
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Best Brewers news ever day(until they win WS) options to year 10. Don't care if they are 25+M. Up to 32 I imagine by then and Chourio prime, would be picked up. So Roy is a draft pick. I seen mention top 3 in MVP voting during the pre-arb years would net a draft pick? Can we see multiple? Or just 1 time thing? Chourio for MVP 2025&2026!
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D. Williams NL Reliever of the Year
brewcrewdue80 replied to Sixtolezcano's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Heck ya! Congrats to Devin. When are the Brewers extending him? Let him turn in to Brewers all time reliever finishing games and the "air bender" forever stamped at Milwaukee. -
I mentioned something in the Chourio thread about Burnes and where any trade gets complicated with him. Brewers and Burnes need to come to a contract for 2024 in order to set his value in ask from teams. The hem-haw in Olyney holding on to Burnes til trade deadline may be this fact. That Burnes will again take this years salary decision to Arbitration. He lost as we know and to me, he will submit a larger number as a make up for what he lost in 2023. The committee can't side with Milwaukee twice right? So the thinking is this isn't a 3M gap but a 5+mil gap between what Milw is pushed from the owners side and history vs. what Burnes will ask for. That result directly impacts his surplus value and won't be decided til end of March? Early April? A time when teams have set their Opening Day payroll and rosters. In the case of a Dodgers trade 5mil surplus value is asking and taking off the return(via btv) 2021 1st rd selection Maddux Bruns. You also gotta add in luxury tax implications towards the teams that are over the line what that result means to them. If a trade happens, ptbnl has to be expected when considering what $$amount Burnes does end up with for 2024. Just messy without a HR no doubt trade offer from another team to see a trade happening until Burnes salary is set for 2024.
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Right and what's his marketability going to bring him if he's a MLB face like Azuna and Trout? Who will be his first ad in WI?
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You're tooling those players with Chourio-Contreras-Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer-Black-Turang-Peralta-Ashby-Uribe closer. And if Milw gets extra picks what's keeping them from setting up a deal where they add 1 of the top 8 ranked in draft who falls to them who fast tracks with 2 seasons addition to team? Or seeing another baby-Chourio meteoric rise come from the recent international signings? And of course a FA signing or 2?
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Team control equals 6.120-6.130 years. 8 years adds 1.040 days over roughly control. I hope a deal at minimum is 9years. Whether guaranteed or a team option year that's going to be a virtual lock. 8years is a loss imo on Brewers end. Edit add re Burnes- trading Burnes comes down to, "Do the 2 sides hash out a 1yr deal? or do they take the case to Arbitration?" 1st- trade value is completely set. 2nd- it's in limbo and a team would need to overpay on the low end offer to get the deal done. Crew would be bad to take an offer based on the high end Burnes side of a deal. 2nd part takes us to late March? Early April to set his value? Trades for Burnes just won't go down then with rosters practically set in stone.
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ThenCorbin Carroll has basically 9/135M signed 4yrs older than Chourio today. 28+M paid a yr those last 3 FA bought seasons. I'd fully expect 10yrs doing this. So you're adding another 28M comparable paid season only to someone 3-4 years younger during the time making that amount than Carroll. I'd think the QO 10yrs from now approaches 28M. You're not buying the 40/50 player for 28M then. You let Chourio take MLB time seeing the field that's what it'll look like on the payroll when you extend then 28+M vs signing him now and making that number be 20M or less because you paid him 7-10M in what would be preArby years and he hadn't taken the ML field yet. He will be must watch TV bringing in immense revenue. Think Mike Trout if you must if Acuna doesn't excite you. That's the media billboard affect that's coming along when he plays out this contract.
