brewcrewdue80

It's simple, Estrada's last start will be at Colorado. There's no way you make the change to Nelson just to have him pitch in Coors Field where he'll likely go 3IP and give up 7Runs. At least Marco will go 4IP and give up 9Runs before Fiers comes in to pitch 2IP while giving up 4Runs and lastly Wang goes 2IP giving up 8Runs. Then it will be obvious Nelson is the man for the job. and Estrada and Fiers both get sent to AAA or DFA'd. That's my prediction. I'm an Estrada fan but he's not right. Just send him to AAA(Can he be sent?) I'm sure he'll find a groove again. Maybe a string down there of 4 or 5 starts where he goes 6-7ip each and gives up just 2-3HRs total while striking out 9+ per 9 will entice that SD/Philly trade I mentioned in Rumors to get through the season.

I believe it was a combo of Travis Snider and Jose Tabata

Wow, I'm amazed Medeiros reached to 2.5mil. There must have been teams just below the Brewers draft pick that had every intention to draft him, which to me just adds that this kid is better than advertised by the pundits. The teams immediately following Milw's pick were San Diego/San Fran/Anaheim Angels all of whom could put together 2.5mil to sign Medeiros. While Arz/KC/ and Washington would have had to sign him over slot. I'll just guess it was Anaheim who took Sean Newcombe the College LH SP who's slot paid 2.475mil. Man I really look forward to these 3 playing!

For OF purposes, I think of Josh Willingham. For IF purposes the Rockies have two guys they've been swapping at 2b since last season. Josh Rutledge and DJ Lemathieu Lemathieu is a defensive guy while Rutledge is an Offensive guy. Lemathieu would be the guy I target because of his defensive prowess but he was a .321 hitter in the minors for his career so I believe he can at least come out and maybe hit .250. He's still young at 25 with team control and I'd probably look to trade a RP like Gorzo or Duke for him. If they ask for a little more I'm sure we can part with whatever that minor piece will be. As mentioned Zobrist/Prado are targets too but the cost in price plus Prospects just may not be worth it for either. I wouldn't be surprised if both were commanding Nelson in return in trade. After him, I don't know how well regarded any other of our prospects are. Coulter/Jungmann would be the only two that you can look at via the numbers and suggest being contributors at the Major league level in the near future. Everyone else just aren't making a case to applaud for in trade. Taylor/Haniger/Roache aren't even at .800OPS in the levels they're in. It really looks sad and I am at a point now looking at it that I don't think the Brewers can trade for anybody for improvement right now. You're just not going to trade Nelson when it's likely he's replacing Estrada. The only way we pull off a trade with our prospects is some scout from another team is convinced on one of our maybe average guys to turn in to a Major League Starter. Like say with Willingham, a team shoots for Morris thinking more highly of him to play 1b. The problem there is they bought Morales to DH leaving Mauer to play 1b. Next season then? Yeah with Morales departing I could see that working in idea. Really someone following the farm more indepth, who has value in trade for a reliable bench piece after Nelson?

I'm staring at BRef right now with Gennett at .8WAR in 63 games this season after 2WAR in 69games last season. Seems to me he's far more than a 1WAR player. Can't the man improve like he's done of late and keep it up? or is he forever going to be a Platoon player regardless if he's batting .300 because it's been determined by Gennett haters that he will never amount to anything but a platoon 2b who doesn't hit enough HRs for their liking. He's raised his average 31pts in the last 12games, had a great ab vs. Latos. The kind of Ab that shows he's learning and going to be a tough out(ie, improving) no,no, no he can't hit LHs something again he's only faced LH RPs or PH vs LH starters, hasn't started a game vs. a LH pitcher where seeing a guy a 2nd and 3rd time facing usually results in better numbers for the batter. I believe if given the chance with numerous opportunities he'll improve vs. LH pitching, how much I don't know but Gennett's recent improvement vs RHs I think is a sign of positive things to come. As it stands now looking at Hill's numbers he's a -.7WAR defensively in the 4 years he's played for Arizona with -.9WAR last season and -.6WAR thus far this season. Pretty solid indicator of his aging and likely a sign your better then Gennett defensively isn't looking at what Hill has become defensively. Hill's numbers offensively he's struggling vs. RH pitching. Something that for his career averages out to 68% of all Starters faced vs. 32% LH starters. So, one could put an assumption that the Platoon works in Gennett's favor since over 2/3rds of the Pitchers faced to start games are RH Pitchers. I could agree Hill is better than Gennett if he batted LH but since he doesn't I don't see Hill as being better than Gennett the rest of this season and the next two seasons. Hill is on the decline being paid a lot for it. Stands a strong chance he'll miss at least 60games between 2015+2016. While continuing to decline as he ages. The Brewers don't win in trading for Hill vs. continuing to play Gennett. I'd feel pretty confident taking a wager that Gennett provides more WAR now through 2016 season than Hill provides now through 2016 season.

Nate you would rather have Hill at 12mil each the next 2 seasons? A player who's currently at .696OPS at age 32? 10years 24WAR. 3 years with 5WAR means 7years of 9WAR total. He's boom or bust. I'll take Scooter who to me will be the average in between what Hill offers in his boom or bust ways. 5WAR one year followed by 1WAR the next. Or just have Scooter at 2.5WAR per season. Plus, 11mil in payroll to spend elsewhere.

I don't know how Arizona can dump Prado after trading away Davidson. I think they committed to Prado at 3b and need to hang on to him til next season. The only 3b next in line in their minors is Jake Lamb in AA. That's a lot of pressure to pretty much put on him to be the 3b next season. Arizona isn't a team that is going to sell to rebuild they will have an eye on next season and Prado is a piece to keep. Chavez would be the one they put on the trade market expendable piece. Aaron Hill would be a guy I see them try to move to play Didi at 2b and Owings at SS as well as save some payroll(guessing they send 4mil minimum per season to entice someone to pick up that dumb deal) But really they aren't a big team to pick from. Pitchers maybe but we're doing well there. Hill is a definite no. Chavez would be a bench guy but if you get him youre dumping Overbay and where's the real improvement there? I wouldn't offer Arizona a prospect with a C grade or better because you're looking at a minor if any upgrade on Overbay. Just looking at their team right now I don't see a good trade fit when it's them selling us buying.

Really? You don't think Morris COULD put up a WAR of 2.3 in roughly 400 games? Of course he could. Alonso hasn't come close to living up to his potential. You would trade for him because you could reasonably expect him to at least perform better than Overbay, play good defense and hit for a decent average, but I don't know how you come to the conclusion that Morris couldn't provide the value over 400 games that Alonso has through his first 400. Sorry I go off of BRef. Has Alonso as 1.5WAR for a full season of games in 2012. And 1.3 WAR in 2013 in 97games. So I projected to 162games to be a pace around 2WAR Listing him at .5WAR in this awful offensive season thus far this year would make him on pace for around 1.3WAR. Can Morris get to that 1.5WAR in a season? Sure maybe. But what would you rather have moving forward? Alonso who you know has 1.5WAR minimum in him with a big change of scenery positive potential having played in SD for his career, or Morris who you hope his K rate isn't ridiculous that he makes enough power contact to make up for that K Rate? The organization certainly has no intentions to promote Morris based on failing to do so already and not doing so last September. So I can just assume Morris is a zero War ML player stuck forever in AAA until he's traded or waived and winds up playing for another ballclub. Likely Toronto where he goes off for 40HRs a year for 4 seasons The whole purpose of pursuing Alonso is to not only improve on Overbay but to secure a 1b moving forward for 2015 and beyond. Let's stop this 2 year run of piecing together a patchwork 1b and put in somebody you can use everyday.(You can Platoon him with Lucroy vs. tougher Lefties if necessary) Question would be would you trade Morris for Alonso?

No, Hunter couldn't. That's the thing I like about Alonso is he's career 15.4% K Rate. Morris projects to be a 25%+K rate batter. Alonso also has an 8.7% walk rate. I think numbers like that would indicate an ability for Alonso to bat better than he has. He puts the ball in play. His numbers this season are the perfect time to cash in on a struggling former top prospect who's actually in his prime age. Buy Low! Change of scenery, change of surroundings. If it works out great we've solved our 1b for the next 3 years.

So, nobody cares about Yonder Alonso? MLBTR just mentioned theyre a team that should be thinking to sell. Let's face it, San Fran has jumped out to a big lead, and meanwhile, the Dodgers? I'm waiting for them to win 25 of 30 games. That roster is just too strong with their pitching not to just go on a long run of winning. As mentioned he's an answer for beyond this season and is LH at the plate. He's been close to a 2WAR 1b and I believe he can improve his number batting in the Central/MP to where he's a 3WAR 1b at the minimum.

At this point the only comps we will be getting are from Gomez and Lucroy. Lucroy has a number of years to go so that's no guarantee being a Catcher he holds up that long in production. Gallardo is not worthy of any comp. He's back to his untradeable self of last season which easily makes him a non QO guy. If a team won't trade a 1st rd type of pick talent for him, they certainly aren't going to sign him in a QO deal. I don't think the team picks up his option after the year honestly. You want your roster spot for Nelson. That's where it comes from. Dumping Gallardo. I think the Front office likely planned ahead in that scenario by signing Garza as a life w/o Gallardo plan. Kyle Lohse. That's tough. I really doubt teams give up a draft pick for a turning 37 SP. He's going to have to carry an ERA under 3.3 for the 3years with Milw for me to see somebody giving away a pick for him. I guess, a 2nd rd pick given up for him for a team who has a protected 1st rd pick may be the best route to see a team give up a draft pick for Lohse. But remember the QO price. Lohse just may be happy with that 15mil approx 1year deal vs. going through that FA late signing process again. I think a better Comp system that MLB could employ would be to use WAR. Use it on a projected 162 game basis over a player's last 3years of Baseball. If it's above 4WAR on avg then a 1st rd pick comp for the team that loses that player. If it's 2-4WAR avg then just a 2nd rd pick comp for the team that loses that player. The FA has to be on the team for a full season. A team only loses the rd the FA would give in compensation. So if you sign Lohse who's on pace for that 2nd rd comp currently that team only loses a 2nd rd pick. That's how I'd do FA comps currently. As great as Lucroy has been he's not a 1st rd comp just yet. But it's close. I'd probably have an age of 34 as to where no comp is given out. That FA to be's age shouldn't explode his price beyond what his current team can afford. Nobody is going to sign Lohse to a 16+mil deal longer than 2years when he becomes a FA. My lastest idea to fix the problem. I'd probably also add that no Comp pick player can sign for 1year and then return that team who signs that player a comp pick when leaving via FA the following season. The player must be signed for 2years minimum to get the comp. So no team cashes in on say an 8WAR season prior to FA signs that player for 1year knowing it's almost impossible to not get a 1st/2nd rd comp when he departs the following season. That player has to perform for the Comp pick contract at least 2years to factor in his next FA 3year WAR Compensation when depart FA. It's a newer statistics/analytical age in Baseball. We talk about WAR so much so let's just use it for FA Compensation.

I mentioned this in the Estrada thread. But what of Yonder Alonso? He has team control. He's not what Ike Davis concerns were with a 30+% K rate. He's actually under 15% K rate. Yet he has a .213BA. If we aren't going to give Morris a shot, maybe we could trade Morris plus I don't know, any number of Pitchers to net Alonso. For whatever reason the Padre bats just blow this year and looking at attempting to buy low on a guy who's 27 that batting in San Diego vs. Milw I think could mean .100pts in OPS making him an .820OPS 1b. Left handed bat at 1b for another 4years? Jungmann and Morris?

Well, Since a WAR in FA has a 5mil value tied to it Right now that gives Gomez a 35mil per year price tag. The man should command 25mil-28mil per year when his contract ends. My guess in a 5 year deal 125-135mil deal. What it means is Gomez has to take a discount to sign for Milwaukee again or it means we're just going to end up QO'ing him for a draft pick. Do we trade Gomez in the 2015-16 offseason? Or play him with just the QO/trade deadline in mind should we not end up contending in 2016? I think it's safe to assume we keep him and use the QO tag if he doesn't take that 5/100mil contract extension. Not even sure the QO/draft comp system will be around so how the new system is hashed out will also detemine what to do.

Having too many SSs hasn't been a problem for the Rangers filling up on more. They even drafted Ti'Quan Forbes a talented SS. Anyway when it comes to Lara, he to me looks destined for 3b. Gatewood wants to be Troy Tulowitzki playing SS, so I can imagine his focus is to remain there. If all three come on up and arrive within say a year of Arcia I'll just imagine Arcia at 2b/Gatewood at SS/ Lara at 3b. With Gatewood moving to 3b if Lara is hurt. Arcia moving to SS if Gatewood is hurt. Our utility at that moment covering 2b if Arcia winds up hurt. Now we just need a true impact 1b prospect!

I looked that over. I'm just wondering out loud, if theyre 700k overslot already are there other signings already having saved money or just a matter of hammering out? Is it usual to have overslot paid pick signed prior to the signings of the underslots?

So just thinking if the 1.8mil is correct that's almost 700k over slot. So the Brewers have already signed enough of their other picks to clear 700k? Or, is that just something they are banking on happening as they make the 10 other signings?

Nice work Crew! 1.8mil is what made sense to his rankings. The 2.5mil must have been a posturing move but yeah like mentioned, I don't get how he could pass up anything above 1mil for a signing bonus just to attend Nebraska. As to the rankings, yeah I'm discussing what to expect the prospect lists to come out ranking the draft picks.

I think any team that would give up anything for him would be a team that's dealing with injuries, but just needs a guy to get them through a rough patch. So based on what I said about Philly/SD doesn't that statement just agree with why I said he'd be a good fit for those 2 teams? They are in an injury riddled rough patch with Pitching. I just don't see any team trading for a 31 year old pitcher this year when they're out of contention in the hopes that he's going to help them out when he's a year older. Far be it for a team to think ahead to next year. Just because SD has some prospects to call up, doesn't mean they can't get a guy to get through this season while getting a look to how he performs in their ballpark. Those prospects San Diego will have to decide are they ready to begin next season and if they look poor in Spring Training. You now look at Team control decisions. Keeping them down in AAA through June to keep the better,younger SP under control for 1 more year. Why get 15 starts from a guy who has 3ERA potential and lose a year of team control being a 5ERA in them? When you can just pitch Estrada with a 4ERA in the same 15starts and then if that prospect is what Nelson is this year, call him up? And again injuries. So many injuries I'd rather take Estrada as a fallback guy than to have to pick through the SP FA scrapheaps and sign Aaron Harangs/Johan Santanas last month of Spring Training in emergency. Maybe it's a combo type deal. Estrada plus Morris for Alonso. A kinda perfect change of scenery guy. Milw, then has their 1b situation clearer for next season. San Diego gets a look at both Estrada/Morris for next season moving forward.

I don't know what is wrong with him. He had 3 pitches in a row yesterday where 2 I felt were strikes and instead called balls but all 3 were boarderline and I think he sorta unraveled. I was watching his velocity and it was 90-94 but more in the 90range according to the gun. It's something mentally and I don't know why. He threw some nasty located changeups. But also man that 6th inning Pitts batters just placed hits all over with the weakest of swings. Only the Martin double was any batted ball hit in play barrelled well. When you're down 7runs and struggling to locate your fastball, and probably told this inning is yours regardless how poor you're pitching. He just looked mentally frustrated. I wish Lucroy would have paid him a visit after that 3rd ball ab that had 2strikes not called because he clearly froze at the ump like wth is a strike if that isn't? Then he walked the guy and the next batter only to have Roenicke come out to talk with him. It worked briefly to K the next 2 batters. Then it was gone again after another borderline strike called a ball. Is this maybe where we find a way to get Nelson up? Send Thornburg down, put Estrada in the pen and Nelson in the Rotation?

But at the same time, the thing I take off that graph(it's a qualified only) is while Morris is the 3rd worst via the wRC he's also tied for 3rd youngest in it. I'm torn on Morris because he's going to be better than Overbay but, he's also going to play how many games? Get how many ABs? So it's better to play him daily in AAA I guess than the maybe 1 more win he provides over Overbay as a spot starting 1b/bench bat. Just, how much longer can you stick with Overbay? This currently qualifies as his worst season ever. And that is while getting a lot of playing time. So you can't say the batting line is bad because it's a Pinch hit bat with 1 game a week starts. We're at 47games 138PAs you know what you were getting before hand, but by now you should also know it's not good enough. It's time to go with Morris. If it's going to bad/pathetic you may as well do it with the guy who has a roster spot locked next season, not a guy who likely retires after the year.

Not sure how a guy who came in with such acclaim and who is posting a line of roughly .290/.420/.550 and very good athleticism would be knocked off the perch by three other high school players. Forgetting Tyrone Taylor, Arcia and others. Don't get me wrong, the 4 young players we're hoping to add to our system have extraordinary ceilings and they should and will be ranked highly. But I think it's about time to start giving our system a bit more credit than what some of the publications have done. I think where Coulter gets knocked down in rankings is whether he stays as a Catcher. If he then moves on to 1b/3b how's his bat fit for that position? If he has to go to the OF how's his defense to play out there? I like Arcia and what I've read on him. I championed against signing Segura to a guaranteed long term contract only to watch it block Arcia in 2years. I guess I left the wrong impression on thinking our system is poor but in some way it is. Go look at Gregory Polanco's numbers, Springer+Singleton's numbers Kris Bryant? I could make a decent list. We have guys who will be ML contributors but not guys that will just be Carlos Gomez/Ryan Braun/Aramis Ramirez heir apparents for career approaching numbers/ability. Now, that is different with Gatewood's ceiling. I don't know how high Harrison's ceiling is you kind of read all his tools and hope it becomes a Polanco/Taveras type OF prospect. Medeiros? Well, there's some filth in his pitching, now I don't think he should leapfrog Arcia/Jungmann and Taylor at this point but just pointing out his overall ranking would place him ahead. Gatewood to me slots behind Nelson. I literally jumped up and down fist pumping when I heard the pick. The potential he has is elite, is Gomez/Braun/Ramirez impacting. The prospect rankings are more in lines of ceiling vs floors which floors is what Arcia/Coulter/Taylor/Jungmann by far have shown will be higher to this point having already played in the minors. The ceiling potential on the selected 3 are higher at the moment thus making them 2,3,4 in rankings. I don't know why Khris Davis/Lucroy never cracked the top 100...Age? Overall hype like now with that year's draft/the year prior slotting guys like I'm sure Aiken/Rodon/Kolek/Jackson/Nola etc say putting the top 10-15 from a draft in your top 100 yearly(Bradley anyone?) that just end up leaving a number of guys outside of the top 100. Or maybe it's just the Milwaukee disdain of the system by the rankers? Why rank a Milw prospect in the 75-100 range when you can fill in spots for the Big city East coast/West Coast teams? Bigger markets more fans to attract. So the system is poor-ish lacking that high upside superior impact prospect. Man, I really wanted Roache to ascend this year as that player but it's not happening yet. Gatewood is finally that kind of pick we can just really get behind and tout is in our system. Harrison/Medeiros sure I'll give you aren't deserving yet to be moved ahead of the top of our system but at 6? 8? I don't think really any lower.

I don't remember who said it but today if all three Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison are signed they believe once Nelson graduates to the team, These three will rank 1,2,3 on the team's prospects ranks. Which just goes to show how poor the system is. I said it earlier if you based off MLB's Overall Ranking of the three drafted then yes they would slot in 2,3,4 behind Nelson. All three have a 55 Overall ranking. Nelson was the only prospect in the system with a 55 ranking. Everyone else is at 50 and lower. I wouldn't be surprised if Gatewood ranked in the top 100 prospects when the season ends. Something exciting to hear is that I guess many believe Medeiros has the ability to really fastrack through the minors. So maybe we are looking at a SP aged 20/21 joining the rotation if that happens? As to Harrison I had no idea the rumble was he was asking 2.5mil. Can he really throw away the baseball opportunity if it's 2.1mil? He's going to be a WR. Commiting to Nebraska with Baseball still to fall back on he can't possibly count on. I can only believe he commits to the College if he honestly felt an NFL career was in his future? If he goes to College I can just see it first 2 weeks in camp torn acl followed the next season by multiple concussions and he's never the same again. Bad knee/poorer vision at the plate career over for baseball. I can understand turning down the money at 1mil(after taxes it must be like 450k) But any amount over 1mil? Not to mention if he's successful in the minors say 4 years to make the Majors he's then earning 500k+ in 4years. Or he goes to college ruins his body some, goes back in to the draft 3 years later gets picked in the 2nd rd now is paid 800k. Then proceeds in the minors for 3-4years to make the Majors. How do you ruin your opportunity like that for a few 100k? 2014:2mil plus 500k in 4years 2.5mil@2018 Or, 2014:Scholarship 2017:800k 2021:500k 1.3mil total? Anyway, based on the next 8 selections with what? 1 being a top 200 prerank talent? I think the team saved themselves quite a chunk of money today. They took 4 seniors, 2 Juniors. The Burkhalter HS kid who appears ready to sign already from above. The only pick you wonder how much money is saved is Sneed in the 3rd rd. I can't wait to see how this all works out financially.

Didn't we get blown out in game 1 or 2 of that 4 game series before winning the rest of the games?

Going to be a Wang Night.

Isn't Pennslyvania where Braun goes deep 2-3 times in a game? Where are the HRs Brauney?