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brewcrewdue80

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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80

  1. Juan needs to go on a mini-tear here and replace the ARam trade rumors to becoming the 3b other teams covet. Call up Boston and offer Juan for Middlebrooks. I said it somewhere else, I really wouldn't be surprised to see Juan traded especially now that ARam is on the DL and looking more than likely stuck on the team through the Deadline not to be moved. I thought the Francisco acquisition was one to use in lieu of ARam's soon to be departure in trade. So if ARam stays, Juan becomes disposable imo.
  2. Keep in mind the incoming Talent for Garza. And who knows? Maybe by dangling Samardzija they take all of the DBacks top prospect talent not named Bradley. Bigger market and your exclamation of opening that checkbook, is bound to happen too. They need Pitching just like us and that in the end may be what keeps them down from excelling here in about 2years. As to the topic. I said already I think it's foolish to believe we can compete when the surplus of talent from our minors isn't all that, when compared to the rest of the Central. See 2013 what injury problems and no depth result in? The pitching is still going to remain unknown after this season as it was heading in to this season. We questioned whether Fiers,Narveson,Thornburg,Estrada,Peralta,Rogers could fill in after Lohse and Gallardo. Only Peralta is shaping up to make it through this season, leaving the same questions with a few newer names. It is still 11 days too early to really ask this question. Who knows how many of our current roster remains once the trade deadline comes?
  3. This has been on my radar, but I've been waiting for Washington to make a move in the standings; they are 7 games out of the NL East and six games out of the wild card though, so I don't know that Washington makes a move. For me, it's the return of Harper, playing Rendon at 2b over Espinosa. The pitching is in order with one other move...Garza? The sleeper team? The team is stacked and Atlanta looks weak, I look for them to collapse with their Starting Pitching as the season wears on with that OF continuing to not produce affecting the morale.
  4. Yeah, ARam's definitely better than Young. But for the cost/rental other team's may view him as better than ARam to trade for. I just think that the Phillies GM has been all about approaching themselves as Buyers not sellers and he doesn't view Young as being necessary to trade, so the prospect return will have to be high enough to convince him hanging on to Young isn't better. So to me, 12 teams have an interest in a player who's not really even on the trade market but only if you overpay in trade to acquire him....Or there's ARam who's better just injured. It's just fairly laughable that a guy who was a -2WAR last season is a guy a team is willing to overpay in prospects for when he's having a "Good year" while still at -.1WAR for it? I just don't find the logic asking for Young vs. just ponying up the money for ARam this year and next and improving your chances more? If you're making a push to win, do so, don't do so by acquiring mediocre players?
  5. First player moved has to be Mike Gonzalez. Simplest move out there for a coveted LH RP. I'm going to go the opposite route, kinda LAA/Tex in that Atl makes the most sense, so Washington comes over the top and nabs him July 26th. I'm getting a little Leery that Melvin may end up striking out this trade season, and that may end up being the only move. I realize I post so many trade ideas that it goes against my posts, but there just isn't any significant buzz on Brewer Players from the other side. Garza to Texas has been going on for it seems since the month began almost 3 weeks now. And the only buzz in these 3 weeks has come on Gallardo which he preceeded to blow his next 3 Starts and now it's quiet on the front for him once again. If only Corey were healthy this season...man he'd likely be top 3-4 in this entire trade season. There's just not a lot of bats available that spark attention and the buzz on Michael Young who came off one of the worst offensive seasons you can ask for to being coveted, the big main talk for a bat along with Alex Rios? Corey's value would have to be through the roof with this realization.
  6. He's under control through 2014, but the $16MM salary that he is guaranteed next year could be prohibitive for interested parties. Seems their is interest after all? Of course. If Michael Young has 12 teams clamoring at him, The next best player is Aramis. There will be more teams listed showing interest on Monday, count it. The money, like I said, will have to send some money along. If he's owed 4.+ remainder of this season and the 16 mil next season. Trading him away is a 4+mil net savings on this summer's payroll. The team stands around 84mil. So, send 8mil. Payroll for this season moves to a net 88mil. But the team is only on the hook at 75mil next year before a Gallardo/Weeks/Lohse trades to be worked if possible. And still, like I said we've paid 6mil and 5.+mil thus far for ARam for 1.6 seasons of a 3/36 contract. So essentially the 8mil with the 11+ is paying almost exactly even on his contract for the length he's stayed here. Though a trade with Boston, likely means Middlebrooks in return and maybe 1 other prospect. So, Melvin and his Scouts will have to believe in Middlebrooks at 3b. It wouldn't make sense for Boston to keep Middlebrooks trading for ARam. The Yankees, I know they are looking to get under the luxury tax and ARod is joining the team so I'm not fully sold on the idea right now for them acquiring ARam. Still have Baltimore as a fit imo. Their DHs have well read this excerpt from a Baltimore fan site: The position that has fallen the most noticeably short of expectations is Designated Hitter, which was divided between Ryan Flaherty, Alexi Casilla, Chris Dickerson, and just recently, Nolan Reimold and Brian Roberts, just since their return from the DL. I think Baltimore makes a play for ARam considering he'll be DH with backup at 3b for an in case Hardy/Machado injury. I feel like the prospects that Baltimore can offer fit more in line likely with an asking price to help their team, vs. the asking price for them to find another SP. It won't be earth shattering, but a couple younger Pitching prospects Parker Bridwell/Eduardo Rodriquez could at least provide something down the road if they learn to refine their pitching. And of Course their's the Dodgers still lurking.
  7. Maybe my scenario was reaching. The idea to me is that if we're looking to trade and a team won't part with say a top 100 prospect we like but a guy who's about 140 offering up the draft pick that changes their mind to give up the top 100 prospect. Splitter just posted RP to Detroit for Alex Castellanos. top 25 prospect. Doubtful. Throw the pick in there? It could happen. If I'm Detroit's GM and I make that trade, you had best be sure that when it comes time to use that pick? I'm going super high upside/Truly Best Player Available. With the idea that by doing so, and this high upside kid becomes a serious ML Talented Ballplayer, down the road the lashing that may incur the next 3 seasons for trading away Castellanos becomes mute and actually called genius to get the RPs they needed while adding a Draft Pick that turned in to so and so. Meanwhile, the Brewers just added a Player that is a certain ML contributor and useful for their organization under their current state. Needing a 3b. or If Guerrieri a SP. Those are just example ideas and I hope it comes to fruition some way some how.
  8. I realize we're in the NL, but did we forget the AL has a DH? I get it that ARam's knees may not be all that great for this season especially in the field but, I'm going to take a guess and say that walking up to the plate for 3-5PAs in a game doesn't make a major impact on them and possibly even allows them to heal slightly over time. MLBTR put out there Baltimore,Yankees, and Oakland who've gotten less than desired DH numbers. I guess you could put Baltimore of those teams as a logical fit, but the Yankees/Oakland he's too expensive. I can see I'm in the minority in believing there's a market for ARam as it stands today. But, keeping my mind open. I just look at the market from this past offseason and guys like Pagan/Victorino getting 10.5/13mil a year and believe Aramis is easily worth more if compared to those two. Next season at 20mil isn't set in stone it's 16/14 picking up the option 2/30. I can think of an AL team looking at him as a 3b/DH type player that is worth 15mil a year with his generally upper .800s OPS. Take Boston. Needs a 3b. They take a flier on ARam. Next season will be Ortiz's last. So if he retires now Boston has a hole open for DH. If they pick up ARam's option while Cecchini takes his spot at 3b their DH problem is solved for 2015.
  9. Everyone keeps harping his contract, his knees. It stands at 1.4yrs 24+mil if traded for. Are Arams knees never going to heal this offseason? I'm just struggling to see just how much in this new tv contract revenue era how much of an overpay ARam is getting to the value of his projected production? Let's run this season through as if he were a FA. His knees likely are improved. What does ARam get on a 1yr contract? If Corey can command 9-10mil I expect Aramis can also, if not more. It's like I said elsewhere. The potential Positive impact Aramis can give a Playoff team is real. Not some utility guy Michael Young numbers that the slash looks good/ok but the fillets aren't there.
  10. And I could see that too. The Indians trading for Gallardo offering up their pick. Sorry TheCrew, I wasn't aware Guerrieri was hurt recently. And yes, while the guy is a super Talent, the basic idea stands that by Milw getting the 1A vs 2B compensation, they've got something with a lot more value to work with in trade. You also have to consider Tampas run this year coinciding with Prices soon departure. Guerrieri won't be up in time before that occurrence.
  11. No way would Ramirez be valued less than a bag of balls! Come on! Teams are salivating at Michael Young all 6HRs 28RBI and .288/.344/.414 of him! A weakened Aramis has 5HRs 26RBI .271/.359/.414 in about 30 less games and is owed less than Young this year. There's reports of 12 teams asking about Young. So there's a want for a 3b. edit add: Remember it is 3/36 for ARam. We've gotten 203 games from him for thus far 11+mil. Tossing 8mil is essentially just changing the backloaded contract to an even 12mil every season. We'd have paid 19mil roughly for 1.6seasons of the 3/36mil contract.
  12. For Tampa, Aoki plus 36ish pick next year for Guerrieri? Tampa loses Kelly Johnson after this season, leaves them a hole in the OF. I dunno, I guess with Myers having Johnson/Joyce is enough for their OF. I just see them being better off with Aoki batting leadoff, Jennings 2nd, Longoria 3rd, Myers, Loney. For a typically punchless offense, I think Aoki improves it a bunch.
  13. top 40 pick won't get a Marginal Player. It's like the scenario I put with the Rays. Guerrieri was a 24th selection with our pick being a mid 30 selection. It's reasonable for a team to give up an up and coming prospect for a player that they control for 1yr+ by justifying that they also get a draft pick similar to where they found said prospect. Really it could turn in to, Guerrieri for Aoki+ so and so they use the draft pick on and Tampa could say they got the best of the deal because of the success that pick turns out for them. Meanwhile, for the Brewers if they can nab a SP the talent of Guerrieri, I'd call that a very successful use of that draft pick.
  14. Let's see. Top ten pick next year likely. Competitive balance pick available to be traded. Let's get on the Diamondbacks phone flip our draft picks and they take Gallardo. We get the prospects we want. Or talk to Boston about Aramis Ramirez offering up the pick and Aramis for a cpl of their SP prospects and Middlebrooks. This is great in that the pick can be traded and when it comes to attempting to move a large salary player like Aramis,Gallardo,Lohse, and Weeks, throwing in the draft pick to get a better return may be the over the top convince to do the deal. Call up Tampa offer to flip the picks and give them Aoki for Taylor Guerrieri. Melvin has a chance by us getting the 1st rd selection to use it to maybe make a trade otherwise wouldn't be able to do. Hopefully, he gets creative that way to get a star prospect sorely needed in our system.
  15. I was wondering where this was going to be posted. Yes! a 1st rd. selection this year not a 2nd! A lot depends on how many players teams sell off in the next 2 weeks. I'm thinking anywhere from 4 to 8 when all is said and done. top 5 pick should be likely. Briggs, the teams under us, Houston and Miami actually have talented players to play w/o really trading away much talent. Miami is done trading aside from Cishek. Houston can trade pitching I suppose but the players they may call up may actually be better than Harrel? and Norris. Miami has the core 4 going of Turner,Fernandez,Alvarez, and Eovaldi to go with Slowey/Sanabia as #5s. Those two teams are better than us with every callup they make. Houston has 5 top 50 prospects and at least 2 of them should see time here before the season ends. The only teams I worry to compete with us is White Sox,Twins, Padres in terms of passing our 3rd worst in standings currently. Anyway back to the pick. This is great, because I'd fully expect a kind of Kansas City move with drafting a College Senior to sign under slot early and then go b2b with 37/4X pick of High Upside HS that they can go over slot to sign. Hopefully then gaining 3 top 25 players overall.
  16. Don't sleep on Washington. Lohse would be just the kind of Pitcher they go after likely slotting him in as replacement for Haren. Would take AJ Cole for him and wouldn't need much more after that. Washington needs to win 7 of 10 likely here coming out of the break to really push for the kind of pitcher Lohse is.
  17. From what I am understanding suspensions could be just a few games to unlimited amount. The 50game/100game suspension here doesn't apply because there's no failed test. Wonder just how many games it takes for ARod to be suspended for the Yankees to remain under the luxury tax next season?
  18. How does Ramirez hold negative value in trade? I think the negative value only comes at full price for him. But every couple million say to 10mil sent to a team makes him a fantastic value/get for the potential return he may provide. I feel like 8mil. sent over in the trade completely changes ARam's value for trade. 4mil for next year and the other 4mil for buyout. He's injured yet still outperforms many 3b with the bat including MiddleBrooks. This really all boils down to who gets Young, what San Diego asks for Headley and then it's Aramis with the kind of bat that typically outperforms both those two options. When you are trying to win a WS, Aramis has the kind of bat that can propel a team more likely than what Marco Scutaro's did for San Fran last season. But it's Scutaro's kind of run that will make it too enticing for a team to pass on Aramis if they truly see him as that piece that could take them over the top. Imagine ARam behind David Ortiz?
  19. Pretty much sums up what we've already assumed, no chance suspensions occur this season. Just too much of a farce with all the people involved to make it happen that quickly.
  20. Perez was a faltering looking prospect last season and Texas didn't want to part with him. He also wasn't an important Starter for their rotation at the time just spot starting. Now Perez has his rotation spot and is showing the promise associated with his previous prospect rankings. It would make no sense for Texas to trade Perez a useful Starter today on their for Garza because they'd just have to find another SP to fill in Perez's spot? Chicago is asking way too much for Garza. Remember Texas' offer to Grienke was Buckel,Grimm, and Leury Garcia. Grimm is contributing as well now on their staff but he still could be on the table for Garza. I could see the same offer Grimm,Buckel and? for Garza. They are open to send Olt which with Buckel/Grimm is a better offer than what Grienke was getting in return. Grienke is universally considered a better pitcher than Garza. Cubs fans are foolish thinking Perez could be had in a deal. As for other team's offers, if the Cubs are seeking a 50thish ranked prospect like Segura last season in return, Wong/Pederson/and Olt fit that ranking currently. St Louis' pitchers are thought of above that which on that same thinking means to high an asking price. I think pitching can be had, but so many pitchers that could be had in trade aren't just 40-60rankings, but top 30 in rankings and on the rise. I think the Brewers still could come away with a Pitching prospect but top 50 in ranking is likely out of the question. Still, many to choose from that currently don't rank top 50 but in a year may crack it like CJ Edwards/ Ranaudo have risen this year vs. preseason rankings. I can't wait for Garza to be traded so the picture becomes much clearer on potential buyers of Lohse/Gallardo and what kind of return to seek.
  21. Hey I agree, if MLB does the right thing and gives Milwaukee their draft pick back where Braun was selected. Otherwise no, it's not good for the crew. It's bad that this could end with Milwaukee losing their Franchise Player completely screwing over the organization. Mark A. should be hellbent against a ban for life and making it known the screw job he's about to incur as an owner. Unless MLB awards him a top draft pick as compensation for his loss of a Franchise player. Edit Adding: If this happened to me as an owner where I lost Braun my #1 player on the team for life, I'd go full Jeff Loria, trade off every single ML Player I have now through next offseason. Run my team with 40man roster of minimum paid salary of players and take all the revenue sharing pocket it within my fellow owners and exclaim the whole time, I lost my #1 revenue making player on my team, my #1 player overall, this is a business and I was just left with a Lemon of a car sold to me to be in with Braun's suspension. MLB left me no choice but to make these drastic moves to again find a Franchise Player hopefully from any number of the trades we made or with I'm sure our next 4 years of top 3 draft selections. I'm following the Jeff Loria model, one that has never been frowned upon by MLB so I don't get why I am getting it now. Maybe MLB should have understood what Banning Ryan Braun did to my owned Franchise before doing so. I was the one and only team to lose it's Franchise Player in his prime with their decision and they took no time or thought to understand what it did to me as an owner.
  22. Explains it perfectly. Crappy Management. Who in turn hires the Crappy Coaches. Also the crappy player development, scouting, draft board and so on. So clearly the man to blame is Melvin. I look back at the Melvin interview a month ago likely, where he puts it out there they will be sellers and search for young talent 2-3 years away from joining the team. Kind of an attempt to find another Jean Segura in trade. He gave credit to the Scouting for finding Segura(though he was the Angels #1 Prospect at the time, blocked by Howard Kendrick and Erick Aybar until 2016) as if they knew he was going to be special. Yet, as just mentioned, a prospect blocked that was likely offered up in trade who also happened to fill a Huge Brewer Hole in the organization seems more likely luck to me happened. I feel like the comment is about how successful his hires are at doing their job, as a way of protecting his own job. Because it took just a month for him to change his search from 2-3years from now prospects to finding guys that will perform in 2014. Who's on the hott seat? Finding players to win next season to me is telling that Melvin is. And his way to keep his job is to win ASAP over build a winning model for the near term and long term. So let's assume Melvin succeeds in building a near winning team in 2014. He keeps his job through 2014 likely in to 2015 and then 2016 when it's again clear the team isn't run up to par he's finally let go 2017. Rather than being fired end of 2013 as he should be.
  23. Hey, great. Optimism for 2014 with the same guys this year playing next. Albeit, one with healthy Braun,ARam,Hart, a fixed Weeks and continual success of Gomez,Aoki,Segura and Lucroy. I'm going pessimism on this. St. Louis's pitching staff will be better next year. Pittsburgh's pitching staff will be better next season. Chicago will have more impact players on their team. Cincy could/should regress. My problem with the idea of Milwaukee competing is that there's 0Aces on the pitching staff. Meanwhile St. Louis has Wainwright and Miller with Martinez/Rosenthal/ and Wacha to compliment. Pittsburgh has Cole and Taillon starting next season. It takes the highest of hopefuls to realistically call this team competing in 2014. Calling so this year was w/o St. Louis knowing how Wainwright would pitch as well as replacing Carpenter and knowing if Miller would hold up. This was w/o Pitts. beginning this year with Cole or in the future Taillon, and questionable signings of Liriano/Martin, wondering if Marte would live up to hype, if McCutchen was capable of repeating a MVP type season. Competing in 2014 vs. 2013 was counting on the Cubs being bad, something that will include Javier Baez next season along with a number of players likely added over this trade deadline from the Garza deal to name one. It's dependent on the Cubs not signing any impactful FA this next offseason. We need a lot, no a TON of things to go right for the Brewers to consider themselves competitive for 2014 vs. the rest of the NL Central. Gallardo being the 3.5ERA 200/200 pitcher he was prior to this season. Lohse continuing to be a 3.5ERA pitcher or better, Peralta to continue to improve, a successful addition of Jungmann or Nelson to the staff, and any number of SPs to be better than serviceable as #5s. The bullpen thats about to be blown up, to be just as successful next season with newer players in new roles. The injury bug to ignore the team next season. It's just foolish. Not to mention going at 2014 with the idea of competing with the players above:Weeks,ARam,Gallardo,Aoki and Lohse means ignoring the opportunity to acquire future talent in trade and the end result meaning that a competitive team in 2014 would in turn SELL more future talent to see 2014 through to the Playoffs! You want to see the team compete in 2014? Then watch Gomez traded to the Mets or Mariners this offseason for one of their Ace to bes Syndergaard/Wheeler or Walker/Hultzen That's the starting point imo for the Brewers to compete in 2014. Having an Ace to pair with Peralta and the future of Hellweg/Jungmann/Nelson for a Staff. Hopefully a Lohse or Gallardo is moved for 1 impact talent to add to the team with the other being the Team's #3 in 2014. Aoki is moved for 1 impact talent. Whoever takes Aoki's place is immediately successful. It's just such a long shot to be reality, that I hope in our fan interest the team looks for success beyond 2014 and not to 2014. Let's recap the toughness to compete just in the Central alone but, teams like Washington,Atlanta,LAD,Arizona also being roadblocks with the talent on those teams to overcome. I don't just want Milwaukee to sneak in to a Wild Card spot and lose outlook. I want a team that has the ability to win it all.
  24. Aramis would be the best candidate, if he were Healthy. I'm thinking if the deal is made, it's at a low value in return. The other candidate I mentioned somewhere else is: Juan Francisco. I could see the Red Sox take a Platoon approach with Middlebrooks and Francisco. The other being a bench bat. As the deadline approaches and every game Iglesias shows he has a very incapable bat, adds to Boston's search for a 3b upgrade. I'd venture the Francisco with 1b/3b exposure this year now gives him added value on top of his potential DH replacing Ortiz power ability if thinking ahead. I realize the Brewers gave up just about nothing to get Juan, but Boston could view Juan as the player best to fill their need and give up more than what we gave up.
  25. 16days left to deadline, and I haven't seen any team linked to inquiring about Lohse. Everything has been speculation. It's frustrating! Not one of Boston/Washington/Toronto/Cleveland or Texas the 5 teams I'd expect the most to inquire about him at this point.
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